Ascot 30/01/2021

Conditions

Rail – True
Track – Good 4
Forecast – Max 35 degrees, sunny

Race 1 – Tabtouch – Westspeed Platinum Maiden – 1200m – 12:44pm

Sichern raced near the rear of the field last start, but still managed to run home strongly, finishing third. He’s having his second run here, so should only improve in that regard, plus he’s drawn a better barrier, so he shouldn’t get too far back. With his turn of foot, connections would be disappointed if he didn’t finish in the first few. Molly Magee has been improving with each start, finishing second last start behind Ginger Flyer. Stepping up in distance looks to benefit her, plus she has a good barrier. It’s interesting to see that she has three gear changes in this race, which could help her to not lay outwards as mentioned in last start’s stewards’ report. Look for her to improve here. Tallinn comes out of the same race as Molly Magee, finishing third to her second. He doesn’t get any weight relief on her though. He’s yet to win in nine starts (9:0-1-1) but has placed at Ascot before (3:0-0-1), which was actually last start. My biggest concern for him here is that he’s drawn wide and given that he doesn’t seem to have a turn of foot, if he gets too far back it could be game over. He may just find one better once again. I Hope You Dance has had a trial between runs, as last start’s run was very disappointing. She went well in that trial, finishing second, so it suggests she’s ready to bounce back here. If you look at placings, she’s very consistent but is yet to win in eighteen starts (18:0-7-2). One positive is that she does have a good barrier and has placed at this distance before (3:0-1-0). I’m just starting to lose a bit of hope in her.
4 – Sichern
9 – Molly Magee
2 – Tallinn
6 – I Hope You Dance

Race 2 – Crown Perth Plate – 1100m – 1:24pm

Talkaboutyou improved with each trial, winning his latest one by a good margin too, all suggesting that he has a bit of ability. He’s drawn a bit sticky in barrier seven and from looking at the horses that have raced before, there doesn’t look like there will be a lot of speed, so hopefully, he doesn’t get caught out wide. Chris is riding very well at the moment and this horse should only improve next start. Green And Shady finished second at his first start, though he won according to his owner. He looked to have the ideal run of that race but having drawn barrier nine here may mean that he gets a bit further back. His trials have been consistent though and he looks to have ability. If he can overcome the wide barrier there’s no reason why he shouldn’t finish in the first few. Amelia’s Chant’s lack of experience got the better of her last start. Her trials leading into that race were good though (winning two out of three). She has a better barrier this time, so should be able to find the front a little more easily. The blinkers come off, which may help her settle a bit more when leading and Pike retains the ride. Look for her to bounce back to here. Gorgeous Gossip has shown great potential at her trials (winning all of them) but then fails to bring those performances to race day (3:0-0-0). There’s never been anything drastically wrong or even mentioned in the stewards’ reports to explain the poor performance. She never finished far off the winners and is second up here, so I’m willing to give her one last chance.
5 – Talkaboutyou
1 – Green And Shady
8 – Amelia’s Chant
6 – Gorgeous Gossip

Race 3 – Glenroy Chaff Plate – 1100m – 2:04pm

In The Boat got scratched from a few races leading up to this one, so slight question mark over why that was the case. He steps up quite a bit in class here but is unbeaten in his career (1:1-0-0) and at all of his trials except one, where he finished second. He should find the front easily from barrier seven, as long as he jumps well, and should be giving them something all to run down! He’s by Nostradamus who is quickly become my favourite sire (sorry Universal Ruler) and this horse has very similar qualities to Clairvoyance, though he looks to be smaller than her. There is a bit more speed in this race, but no doubt he should finish in the top three. I’m following him with great interest! Kissonallforcheeks has much more class and experience than In The Boat, winning the listed Lee-Steere back in December. The form surrounding her races is great, so it’s not a surprise to see her rise 4kg off last start. She has won with 58.5kg previously though and at this track/distance (3:2-0-0). The wide barrier looks to be the only concern and how much work she’ll have to do to get a forward position. She has the class to be winning and ability this! Vane Tempest looks to be one of the main dangers to In The Boat, as she also likes to lead. She has finished in the top three at all of her starts (3:1-1-1), drops 2kg on last start and Pike takes the ride. She drops down 100m in distance, but this should only give them less time to catch her. From barrier three, it looks like she’ll be able to find the lead a touch easier than In The Boat. It wouldn’t be a surprise to see these two battle it out down the straight, though if they burn each other out, Kissonallforcheeks may just swoop in late. Great value tip! Our Danni has won two in a row leading into this race, though it has been four weeks since her last win. She goes well fresh though, so this isn’t too much of a concern. She also loves this track/distance (5:2-1-1). She’s drawn barrier nine which may result in her getting too far back, but it also presents the opportunity to follow In The Boat into the race, depending on what Iron Sharp, who has drawn between them, does. She rounds out a very even race!
7 – In The Boat
2 – Kissonallforcheeks
9 – Vane Tempest
4 – Our Danni

Race 4 – All Flags Signs And Banners Handicap – 1400m – 2:43pm

Last Of The Line is just a horse you’d love to own. He’s yet to finish outside of the top three (6:4-0-2) and looks to be very well placed here. He does rise 2kg off last start’s win but does have a beautiful barrier once again. He has a nearly faultless track/distance record (4:3-0-1) and can run on from midfield if anything goes wrong. He deserves to be the short priced favourite. Phoneme finished third to Last Of The Line last start and gets 2kg on him here as a result. Given the margin though, I don’t think this weight alone is enough to make a difference. He has been racing consistently this preparation, though is yet to win at this track/distance (2:0-0-1). Not really anything to complain about, so no reason why he should run a bad race. Cryptic Love surprised a few people last start with that win over Solaia. Previously she seemed to have just gotten too far back and perhaps boxed in (without having watched the replay). From barrier five she shouldn’t get too far back here, and she only has to carry 55.5kg with Kristy’s claim. She is probably more a 1200m horse but has she has won at this track/distance before (4:1-0-1), which was last start. She could surprise once again. Wakan Tanka simply got too far back last start, so just put a line through that run. He’s drawn a slightly better barrier here, so he should be able to settle slightly further forward. Chris jumps off in favour of Phoneme, but Brad has ridden this horse to win before. This horse actually has a good track/distance record too (6:1-2-1). Prior to last start he was racing quite well, so it wouldn’t be a surprise to see him bounce back here. Great value tip.
6 – Last Of The Line
5 – Phoneme
3 – Cryptic Love
8 – Wakan Tanka

Race 5 – Seacorp Handicap – 1600m – 3:23pm

What About Moi won a race last start at Pinjarra over 1300m, so not only steps up dramatically in class but also in distance. He’s only finished outside of the top three once in his career (4:1-1-1), but that race was at Ascot, which is slightly concerning. The form surrounding that one win isn’t particularly strong, but he can run on from midfield. Just have a funny feeling about this horse and I’m going to stick with my gut, especially in a field that is so even. Recapitulate had a small hiccup two starts ago, which looked to be slightly pilot error, but otherwise, he has been racing really well in the country. He’s only placed outside the top four once this preparation and while he has been racing since July, his races have been spaced. This distance is right up his alley (12:6-2-1) and he only has to carry 57kg with Laqdar’s claim. Obviously having raced in the country, his form isn’t as strong, but from barrier three, he should easily find the front and give them something to run down. Good value tip. Bentley’s Brother has also been racing very well down south, so deserves a crack at this city race. He’s arguably in career best form, even if the form surrounding those races isn’t the strongest. He has a good turn of foot which should help him overcome that wide barrier and he’s won over this distance before (13:1-3-3). If he can match it to these city horses, he should go well. Great place value. Classy Macro looked to have just gotten too far back, especially as he usually does his best work from the front. He’s drawn a better barrier here, so should get that forward position. It looks like the step up in distance is something he’s calling out for this preparation, especially as he has won over this distance before (3:1-1-0). I question whether he’s not an Ascot horse (6:1-0-0), but at least he only has to carry 54.5kg, which is the lightest he’s carried ever. He’s a hit and miss horse but could surprise.
13 – What About Moi
1 – Recapitulate
8 – Bentley’s Brother
4 – Classy Macro

Race 6 – James Squire Handicap – 1200m – 4:00pm

Prince Devoutly had a few excuses last start in the stewards’ report and it probably didn’t help that he got a bit too far back. From barrier one, I suspect Pike will settle him further forward, which then should help him settle. He also drops 2.5kg off last start’s run due to the rise in class. Stepping up in distance should also see him improve, as he’s unbeaten over 1200m (2:2-0-0). He ran the quickest 600m last start and with conditions in his favour, he should win this. Excellent Dream is a consistent horse with good form, including beating Weaponson last preparation. He’s finished second and won a race leading into this one, so looks to be in for a good preparation. He has a good track/distance record (2:1-1-0) and will be hitting his peak being third up. The 60kg from barrier nine looks to be a big ask, considering how good this field is, but he did win last start with 60.5kg. If he can overcome the weight again, he can win this. Weaponson finished third last start after also getting a bit further back than he would have liked. An interesting fact is that he ran the second quickest 600m time in that race behind Prince Devoutly. He’s a very consistent horse, yet to place outside of the top three this preparation (4:2-1-1). He’s also unbeaten at this distance (2:2-0-0) and track/distance (1:1-0-0). The thing that is going to get us is the wide barrier (the barrier gods certainly aren’t on his side!), but at least he only has to carry 56kg with Kristy’s claim. If he can overcome the barrier, he can win, but I have no doubt he’ll run another honest race. Mood Swings finished fourth to Excellent Dream last start and gets 2kg on him here as a result. He didn’t finish that far off the winner though and had a terrible barrier compared to him, so the barrier plus the weight could be enough to help turn the tables. He has won at this distance before (3:1-0-1), but never placed at this track/distance (1:0-0-0). He’s just not as consistent as my top three too. However, he rounds out a very even race.
7 – Prince Devoutly
1 – Excellent Dream
3 – Weaponson
9 – Mood Swings

Race 7 – Scenic Blast Stakes – 1200m – 4:40pm

Carocapo has been handling himself rather well in listed company, recording a second and a third, and is really in some of his best form. He gets 1.5kg on Flirtini from last start and the 1200m looks to suit him very well. In fact, this track/distance combination looks to be his favourite (15:7-0-3). He’s drawn a bit sticky in barrier seven, given that he likes to settle in the first few and with a bit of speed in the race, it could just make things that touch more difficult for him. He should run a good race though! Flirtini showed an enormous turn of foot last start, coming from near last to win. That win was from barrier ten too, so that doesn’t look to be too much of a concern here. What is a worry though is the 60.5kg she has to carry, 2kg more than last start. I also question whether she’s a better 1000m horse, though she has a good distance record (8:2-0-3) and track/distance (6:1-0-2). Class and ability can absolutely see her winning here if she can overcome the weight. Essential Spice finished third behind Flirtini, with this race looking like the one to follow form wise. She gets 2kg on her here as a result. She seems to find one or two better lately, which I feel might be the case here seeing as she seems to be a 1000m horse, having yet to win over anything else. She has placed at 1200m before though (6:0-2-0), has a good barrier and can run on from midfield. Certainly don’t rule her out! Saracino just got too far back after missing the jump last start, finishing eighth behind Flirtini. Stepping up in distance looks to benefit (16:3-2-1), though his Ascot record really isn’t the best (6:0-0-1). From barrier three, if he runs well, he shouldn’t get too far back again, which will help seeing as he doesn’t seem to have a turn of foot. He just seems to be crying out for a soft track.
3 – Carocapo
1 – Flirtini
5 – Essential Spice
8 – Saracino

Race 8 – Amelia Park Handicap – 1000m – 5:15pm

Imprudent lost his rider two starts ago after stepping wrong in the straight. He looked to be losing ground in the straight but could have gone close had the jockey not fallen off. He bounced back with a win last start, so it suggests that fall hasn’t knocked his confidence too much. Last start’s win was over this distance, meaning he is unbeaten over 1000m (1:0-0-0). He does rise dramatically in class but drops 3kg as a result and has a good barrier. Seeing as his only time outside of the top three was that fall (3:1-0-1), I’m willing to risk him at $34/1! Time To Sizzle lead all the way to win last start, at her first run this preparation. There was good form surrounding that race too. She technically rises 5kg off that run but will only have to carry 57kg with Madi’s claim. From barrier four, she should find the front easily and she loves this track/distance. My only concern is her second up record (3:0-1-0). She’s a much safer bet than my top tip though. Lipstick Flickers put in a good performance first up, finishing third after winning a trial first up. She drops down in distance here which is interesting given that three over her wins have been over 1200m and one over 1400m. She has, however, placed at this track/distance before (1:0-1-0). No reason why she shouldn’t run a good race. Nobelium has shown a really good turn of foot at his last two starts in the country where he finished second. He returns to the city where he has a surprisingly good track/distance record (7:1-1-3). From barrier five he should be able to get into a better position too. The form surrounding his races could be slightly stronger, but he’s a great value tip and rounds out an even race!
11 – Imprudent
4 – Lipstick Flickers
2 – Time To Sizzle
12 – Nobelium

Best Bet

Race 4 – Last Of The Line

Confidence Rating

My confidence definitely could be better, though I seemed to have gone for a bit of value this week, particularly in race 8! Races 1 and 2 are always difficult with so many maidens. Besides race 4, the rest are pretty even, though races 5 and 8 are the ones I’m worried about the most, as race 8 I have a $34 horse on top. Fingers crossed for a good day as an owner and tipster.

Last Week’s Results

R3-boxed first four
Winners in top 4- 6/9
Top picks: 3rd, -, -, 1st, -, -, 2nd, -, –
Best bet: –
Profit: -13.9