Ascot 29/01/2022

Conditions

Rail – 6m
Track – Good 4
Forecast – Max 39 degrees, very hot and sunny

Race 1 – Seacorp Plate – 1000m – 2:28pm

2 – Beads
6 – My Baby Blue Jean
1 – He’s A Sizzler
5 – Michelada

Comment: Beads is knocking on the door for a win. He was no match for Trix OF The Trade last start, but dropping back in distance here looks to suit, especially given his track/distance record (4:1-2-0).  My Baby Blue Jean is up in class but has good career results (2:1-0-1), with that third place being off this distance. This is a classy field, but she looks to have ability and will give them something to run down. He’s A Sizzler finished fourth to Beads’ second last start. He’s placed at this track/distance (1:0-0-1) and there’s no reason for him not to be consistent here again. Michelada hasn’t recorded a win (or place) since her first race. That race was at this track/distance (1:1-0-0) and she’s trialled nicely leading into this race. Sneaky value chance.

Suggested bet: Beads, My Baby Blue Jean and He’s A Sizzler – each way

Race 2 – TABtouch – Westspeed Platinum Handicap – 1000m – 3:05pm

1 – Express Time
5 – Garage Days
4 – Halatorion
3 – Requisition

Comment: Express Time is coming off a good win. She drops down in distance but to one that she’s comfortable over (4:1-0-2). The only concern is that she does have to carry 61kg, even with Laqdar’s claim and if she is going to lead all the way again, this may get the better of her. Garage Days is ultra consistent but he has been racing in a lower grade. Conditions look to suit here and there’s no reason for me to run a bad race. Halatorion is looking to make it 3 wins in a row. He’s placed at this distance (2:0-0-1) and while the form surrounding his races could be stronger, he’s not without his chances here in a very open race. Requisition is no stranger to this track/distance (11:3-2-1). He just seems to be finding one or two better lately, but he never finishes that far off the winner, and I think that will be the case again here.

Suggested bet: Express Time, Garage Days, Halatorion and Requisition – each way

Race 3 – Magic Millions Plate – 1000m – 3:40pm

1 – Galaxy Affair
6 – Playhouse Patron
4 – Hang Glider
7 – Spiritson

Comment: Galaxy Affair notched up a win at his second start. He isn’t penalised too much in the weights and if experience counts for anything, he should go close. Playhouse Patron has won two trials leading into this race. The margins weren’t anything breathtaking, but $12 seems a bit generous. He’ll improve next start with one run under his belt. Hang Glider is in a similar boat to Playhouse Patron, but this horse has only had the one winning trial. He looks to have ability but I worry he may get lost or too far back from barrier 10.  Spiritson improved with each trial, which was good to see. He’s drawn nicely in barrier 3 and should run a good race.

Suggested bet: Galaxy Affair, Playhouse Patron, Hang Glider and Spiritson – each way

Race 4 – Karen Haynes 50th Birthday Handicap – 1400m – 4:20pm

3 – Trade War
2 – Phanta
6 – Sketta
9 – Jay Dee

Comment: Trade War has been beaten by a good horse in Cheval De Vaga at his past two starts. Conditions look to suit here, especially as he’s placed at this track/distance (1:0-1-0). He’ll get back from barrier 9 but he should run on well. Phanta has been racing consistently at his past two preparation, placing second at all four starts. He steps up ever so slightly in distance here, to one that he’s placed over (2:0-1-0). He should get a nice spot behind Jay Dee and finish home strongly. Sketta has only raced once on a good track and that was at her first start. Her trial was good, and she has won first up before (2:1-0-0). She’s not without her chances. Jay Dee has been performing well in a lower class. I like her track/distance record (4:1-2-0) and she only has to carry 52kg with Keshaw’s claim, plus she’s won from out wide before. I reckon she’s over the odds at $26/1.

Suggested bet: Trade War, Phanta, Sketta and Jay Dee – each way

Race 5 – Happy 80th Birthday Margie Handicap – 1600m – 4:53pm

4 – Fashion Queen
1 – Sentimental Queen
9 – Deputano
6 – Crescent City

Comment: Fashion Queen won in a fashion last start. Holly takes over from Pike here and maybe it’s because connections wanted to use her 3kg, as the mare only has to carry 56.5kg. From barrier 4, hopefully, she’ll be able to settle slightly further forward and run on from there. Sentimental Queen narrowly finished second last start. She steps up in distance here to one she’s won over at Ascot (2:1-0-0). Barrier 10 may cause a few problems, but she has won from out wide before and she only has to carry 58.5kg with Keshaw’s claim. Deputano gets Pike in the saddle over a cerise and white horse, so that can’t be ignored. This horse does have a great track/distance record (4:2-0-1) and she has a turn of foot. She could surprise at decent odds. Crescent City finished third to Fashion Queen last start, but actually has to give her a 1kg here due to Holly’s claim. He can be hit and miss, but he’s unbeaten at this distance (1:1-0-0). Not without his chances.

Suggested bet: Fashion Queen and Sentimental Queen – each way

Race 6 – Belhus Racing Stables Handicap – 1600m – 5:26pm

8 – Cheval De Vaga
6 – Chili Is Hot
10 – Ginger Baker
3 – Bruce Almighty

Comment: Cheval De Vaga is just on fire this preparation. He’s never placed at this distance (1:0-0-0) but he only has to carry 54kg with Keshaw’s claim. He may be slightly vulnerable, but he should run a good race. Chili Is Hot was narrowly defeated last start after placing fourth in a group 3. She drops back in distance here, which looks to suit given her track/distance (3:1-1-0). Everything looks to suit here, so there’s no reason why she can’t win. Ginger Baker improved last start and maybe that could be put down to him settling in the first few. He should get a similar position here from barrier 4 and he’s placed at this track/distance (2:0-1-0). Bruce Almighty seems to be hitting his peak after coming off a win. He ticks a lot of boxes here including his track/distance record (3:1-0-1). He should easily get to the front and give them something to run down.

Suggested bet: Cheval De Vaga, Chili Is Hot, Ginger Baker and Bruce Almighty – each way

Race 7 – Amelia Park Handicap – 1000m – 6:00pm

1 – Acromantula
10 – Pink Carats
5 – Sassy Trader
7 – Strathmore Rose

Comment: Acromantula has really good form surrounding his races, beating This’ll Testya who came out and won on Monday. He’s also no stranger to this track/distance (6:4-1-0). Barrier 11 and 60kg may just test him. Pink Carats is up in class here after winning last start. He’s career statistics are good and he is unbeaten at this track/distance (1:1-0-0). He should be spot on here and it’s hard to fault him. Sassy Trader won a trial in a good fashion leading into this race. He has a good first up record (4:1-1-1) and track/distance record (3:1-1-0). He also only has to carry 56kg with Keshaw’s claim. He’s one to watch. Strathmore Rose has just been finding a few too good lately, but she never finishes that far off the winner. She was first up last start without a trial, so she’ll take good improvement from that run fitness wise. Pike jumps on for the first time, so she could surprise.

Suggested bet: Acromantula, Pink Carats, Sassy Trader and Strathmore Rose – each way

Race 8 – Scenic Blast Stakes – 1200m – 6:30pm

5 – Miss Conteki
11 – Clairvoyance
10 – Iseered Iseered
2 – Amasenus

Comment: Miss Conteki showed a blistering turn of foot last start, repeating what we saw two starts ago too. From barrier 11, there’s no doubt that she’ll go back. She has been defeated before at this track/distance (2:1-0-0) and rises 2.5kg off last start, but boy does she have ability. Clairvoyance had a tonne of excuses last start, which was her first start back from injury, so there’s no doubt that she’ll improve here. She steps up in distance here to one she’s unbeaten over (1:1-0-0) and Pike will know how to ride her now after having one ride on her. It’s just the question of early speed (Clairvoyance) vs late speed (Miss Conteki). Iseered Iseered finished second behind Miss Conteki and gets 1.5kg on her here. He’s also drawn a better barrier than both of my top tips. This distance does leave him a touch vulnerable (4:1-0-0), but he should go close once again. Amasenus looks to be ready for another good preparation based on her two trials. She’s unbeaten at this track/distance (1:1-0-0) and has won first up before (4:2-0-0). She’ll need to bring her best in this classy field.

Suggested bet: Miss Conteki and Clairvoyance – each way

Race 9 – Crown Perth Handicap – 1200m – 7:00pm

3 – Double Spice
4 – Cristal Dane
8 – Agent Kensington
5 – Keep Your Feet

Comment: Double Spice will bring confidence from the two wins this preparation in Esperance. He has a good distance record (2:1-0-1), but he hasn’t raced over it at Ascot. His form could be stronger but he’s not without his chances here. Cristal Dane has good form behind Cheval de Vaga and Burnya To Survive. She’s drawn wide but that should enable her to get to the front easily. She also only has to carry 55kg with Holly’s claim. It’s just her track/distance record that doesn’t fill me with a lot of confidence (9:0-2-0). Agent Kensington finished second behind Pink Carats last start which is good form. This mare can be hit and miss but she’s proven at this distance (9:1-2-1). She could surprise. Keep Your Feet was a bit disappointing last start but he did have excuses in the stewards’ report. He does need things to go his way, but his only win has been over this distance (7:1-1-0). He’ll need some luck here.

Suggested bet: Double Spice and Cristal Dane – each way

Best Bet

Race 6 – Cheval De Vaga

Quaddie

R6 3, 6, 8, 10
R7: 1, 2, 5, 7, 9, 10
R8: 5, 11
R9: 3, 4

Confidence rating

Wow, it feels like a carnival kind of day with how even these races are! I tossed up for ages on which horse I should go with for my best bet. I feel like my top tips should place but it will be a battle for the win. Hopefully, it’s a winning day all round!

Last Week’s Results

R1:quinella
R3:boxed first 4
R5:boxed trifecta
R10:exacta
Winners in top 4: 8/11
Top picks: 2nd, -, 1st, 2nd, 1st, 3rd, 2nd, -, -, 1st, 1st
Best bet: 3rd
Quaddie: No
Profit: -0.1 ($1ew on top tips & $2ew on bb)