Horse Racing,  Tipping

Ascot 28/11/2020

Sorry everyone about the lack of an in-depth preview this week! Between the fashion show and the WA Fashions on the Field Final, I just haven’t had time. Hope you like this shortened version though.

The plus sign is things that I like about the horse and the negative sign are things going against them. I’ve also done a confidence rating per race, as I feel this shortened version doesn’t give a full representation of how even some of these races are.

Conditions

Rail – 5m
Track – Good 4
Forecast – Max 25 degrees, partly cloudy

Race 1 – Tourism WA Trophy – 1000m – 12:24pm

1 – Sassy Trader
  • + never placed outside the top three in his career
  • + unbeaten at this track/distance
  • + good form surrounding his races
  • + only has to carry 55kg with Laqdar’s claim
7 – Toscana
  • + unbeaten in her two career starts
  • + won from out wide before
  • – steps up dramatically in class
2 – Madam Torio
  • – first up without a trial, though has won first up before (2:1-0-0)
  • + all wins have come at this distance (6:3-1-0)
  • + should find the lead easily or even take a sit behind Shock Result
8 – Mischievous Diva
  • + won trial leading into this race
  • – last preparations starts were ok, though the third behind Clairvoyance was good
  • + barrier and weight

Confidence rating: 7/10
Comment: Top tip has the class but there are a few horses here on the way up. Toscana is one to watch going forward.

Race 2 – Amelia Park Handicap – 1400m – 1:04pm

10 – The Fugazi
  • + drops down from a group 3 race where he finished fourth and he’s not penalised in the weights
  • + consistently finishes in the top four
  • + third up so will be fit after 64 weeks off before the start of this preparation
1 – Position Of Power
  • + won last start
  • + good track/distance record (6:2-1-0)
  • + proven at this class
  • – seems to go better on a soft track
  • – rises 2.5kg off last start’s win
2 – True Attraction
  • – rises in weight
  • + drops in class
  • + teams up with Pike for the first time this preparation
  • – just hasn’t been himself since Belmont 2019 (having 66 weeks between that preparation and this one)
7 – Rebel Knight
  • – up in class
  • + drops 5kg on last start’s third
  • + track/distance to suit (3:1-0-1)
  • – mixed form
  • – drawn awkwardly

Confidence rating: 6/10
Comment: I’m not convinced that Position Of Power won’t make it back to back wins.

Race 3 – Mrs Mac’s Handicap – 1400m – 1:44pm

5 – Island Missile
  • + improved with each run since arriving in Perth, won last start
  • + showed a great turn of foot
  • + shouldn’t get as far back this time
  • – steps up in class
12 – Captain Burglar
  • – was outclassed in the Fairetha
  • + drops in class
  • + good midweek form surrounding his races
  • + weight and barrier
14 – The White Witch
  • + in career best form/coming off a win
  • – up in class/definitely a tougher race
  • – yet to place at track/distance (1:0-0-0)
6 – Yadreamin’
  • – drawn extremely wide 
  • + track/distance record (2:1-1-0)
  • + drops in class
  • + will appreciate return to a good track

Confidence rating: 7/10
Comment: I think this is a more even race than it looks. Island Missile has just improved so much since coming to WA and I’m hoping that continues here.

Race 4 – TABtouch – Westspeed Platinum Series Final – 1400m – 2:24pm

13 – Western Rhythm
  • – drawn wide
  • – apparently didn’t handle last start’s conditions (this distance but on a soft track)
  • + was his first time outside of the top 3 (5:1-2-1)
  • +/- Carleen on fire, though they can’t make use of her claim
  • + good distance record (3:1-0-1)
1 – Tajmali
  • +/- beat Western Rhythm two starts ago and finished second behind Igashi three starts ago but otherwise her form isn’t the best
  • – weight
  • + loves Kyra (2:1-1-0)
  • – unraced over this distance
3 – I’m Pretty
  • – races leading into this race haven’t been good at all
  • + teams up with Pike, who scored two out of three wins with her at Pinjarra in March/April
  • + good distance record (9:3-2-2) and track/distance (1:0-1-0)
  • – form surrounding her good results isn’t the strongest
6 – Glamour Packed
  • + three out of the last four starts have been very good
  • + good distance record (4:1-2-0)
  • + can run on
  • + barrier
  • – not a fan of Ascot (6:1-1-0)
  • – needs things to go her way

Confidence rating 6/10
Comment: Igarashi is great value and I think is slightly over the odds (though has now been scratched). Western Rhythm is more consistent and is a serious threat.

Race 5 – Crown Towers Handicap – 1200m – 2:59pm

6 – Resortman
  • – was very disappointing first up (probably got too far back)
  • – drawn extremely wide (so the same thing could happen again)
  • + unbeaten second up (1:1-0-0), distance (2:2-0-0) and track/distance (1:1-0-0)
  • + good form surrounding races last preparation
11 – Comes A Time
  • + returns back to 1200m with a great track/distance record (4:1-0-3)
  • + horse on the way up
  • + barrier and weight
  • + should easily find the front and give them something to run down
4 – Puli
  • + only had the one bad run this whole preparation (though it was last start)
  • + all wins have come over this distance/great distance record (7:4-1-0)
  • – form surrounding races isn’t as strong
  • – goes better on a soft track
  • + should find the front easily
5 – Sweet Dreamin’
  • – one the one week backup
  • – was disappointing last start
  • + drops back in distance
  • + racing well prior to last start

Confidence rating 3/10
Comment: Resortman’s last start performance makes me nervous, with Comes A Time and Puli looking like very strong threats!

Race 6 – Quayclean Handicap – 1200m – 3:35pm

1 – Carocapo
  • + scratched from the Winterbottom for this race
  • + coming off a win
  • + only has to carry 58.5kg with Laqdar’s claim
  • – up in class
  • – hit and miss horse
5 – Dig Deep
  • + good track/distance record (3:1-0-1)
  • + good third up record (2:1-0-1)
  • + improved last start
  • – may have appreciated the soft track and interested distance last start
  • -/+ up in class but drops in the weights
2 – Don’t Fuss
  • – on the one week backup
  • + finished fifth to Carocapo and gets 2.5kg on him as a result
  • – just hasn’t been the same since Belmont last year
3 – Multiverse
  • – disappointing last start but seems to have gotten too far back and not handle the heavy going
  • + placed in listed races in August
  • + only has to carry 55kg with Madi’s claim
  • + forming surrounding his races is very good
  • – seems to absolutely hate Ascot, never placing at this track (6:0-0-0)

Confidence rating 3/10
Comment: This is a very even race!

Race 7 – TABtouch – Regional Championship Final: The Road To Ascot – 1200m – 4:10pm

1 – Manhattan Money
  • + only placed outside of the top three once this preparation (finished fourth)
  • + loves this distance (8:3-1-3)
  • – weight!
  • – drawn wide so could get too far back
  • – new jockey
2 – Cool Serenity
  • + went into race first up without a trial and still finished second
  • + in career best form last preparation
  • – weight
  • – barrier and might have to use too much energy getting a forward position
  • – never won over this distance (7:0-2-1)
15 – The Beach
  • + finished third behind Manhattan Money (gets 1.5kg on her)
  • + looked like the winner but beaten late
  • + should easily find the front from that barrier
  • – has been racing since April so may have had enough
  • +/- seems to have appreciated the 1200m at her last two starts, because her other races haven’t been good
  • + going well for new trainer
13 – What About Moses
  • + won nicely first up
  • + good second up record (4:1-0-1) and distance record (7:2-1-0)
  • + will appreciate the good track
  • – drawn a bit wide
  • – form isn’t the best

Confidence rating: 1/10
Comment: As you can see by my confidence rating, you can make a case for nearly every horse in this race, with country form being particularly hard to gauge! I’m worried that the weight is going to get the better of my top two tips.

Race 8 – Peoplestart – Tattersall’s Cup – 2100m – 4:50pm

4 – Double Digit
  • – didn’t handle conditions at all last start and got too far back
  • + teams up with Chris who has won twice on him for two rides
  • +/- stepping up in distance will benefit, though yet to official place at this track/distance (1:0-0-0)
  • + barrier and weight
  • + form surrounding races
  • + gets 1.5kg on Paddy’s Shadow since they last met despite beating him
9 – Paddy’s Shadow
  • + showed a great turn of foot last start
  • +/- drops 2kg since last start due to the rise in class
  • + loves these longer distances and has a good track/distance record (3:1-1-0)
  • – on the one week backup
10 – Royal Command
  • +/- racing really well this preparation, but was hit and miss last
  • + step up in distance should benefit
  • + barrier, weight and Pike
  • + finished third in a list race last start but isn’t penalised in the weights at all
  • – odds are a touch too short for me (will probably win now)
3 – Arctic Stream
  • – own worst enemy last start and just got too far back first up
  • – on the one week back up
  • – results haven’t been good since March
  • + new jockey may bring a fresh perspective
  • + placed at this track/distance before (3:0-2-0)
  • + shouldn’t get too far back from that barrier

Confidence rating: 4/10
Comment: Battle between top three tips.

Race 9 – Crown Perth – Winterbottom Stakes – 1200m – 5:30pm

1 – Trekking
  • + won trial leading into this race
  • + incredible eastern states form
  • + not penalised in the weights for having this great form
  • + can run on to some extent
  • + Pike in a group 1
  • – drawn a bit awkwardly and may get a touch further back than they would like
16 – Celebrity Queen
  • + won a group three leading into this race
  • + rarely runs a bad race and place outside of the top three (10:6-2-0)
  • – last start may have just take a bit out of her with those conditions
  • + can run on from mid field
  • + won from out wide before
  • + will be spot on fitness wise
8 – Stageman
  • + finished second behind Celebrity Queen last start, but showed a much better turn of foot
  • + has stronger form surrounding his races than Celebrity Queen
  • + probably could have finished closer in this race last year (finished ninth after getting blocked in the straight)
  • + loves this distance (8:4-2-0)
  • – new jockey in Pat so he doesn’t know the horse has well (though has enough experience to win)
12 – Indian Pacific
  • + has never finished outside the top three in his career (9:6-0-3)
  • + should get a lovely sit behind Condor Heros
  • + won at this track (5:3-0-2) and distance (2:1-0-1) but never together
  • – yet to race beyond group 3 level
  • – doesn’t get any weight on horses like Trekking who have great form and more experience

Confidence rating: 7/10
Comment: It’s a group 1, so anything can happen. Trekking’s form is hard to ignore though.

Race 10 – Furphy Handicap – 1600m – 6:10pm

12 – Cambist
  • + great form in the autumn/winter
  • + does have a turn of foot over longer distances
  • + ran well first up
  • +/- will appreciate the step up in distance but it probably looking for further
  • – yet to win second up (3:0-1-0) or over this distance (2:0-1-0)
14 – Tollman
  • + won a race leading into this race
  • + loves this track/distance (4:1-2-0)
  • + barrier and weight
  • + rarely runs a bad race
  • – form surrounding his races isn’t as strong as my top tip
8 – Mystery Miss
  • – just hasn’t been racing at her best though getting that far back probably doesn’t help
  • – drawn wide so will probably get back again
  • – rises 3kg off last start’s race due to the drop in class
  • + gets Pike back
  • + does have a good track/distance record (2:1-0-1)
2 – Money Maher
  • + had excuses had both starts this preparation so he should only improve here
  • – just doesn’t seem to be himself after 17 months off the scene prior to this preparation
  • – yet to place over this distance (3:0-0-0)
  • – rises 4kg due to the drop in class
  • + good third up record (3:1-0-1)

Confidence rating: 4/10
Comment: Tossed up between my top two tips for ages and still not sure I’d made the right decision. Tollman is a much safer bet.


Best Bet

Race 3 – Island Missile

Last Week’s Results

Saturday 21/11/2020
R8- boxed trifecta
Winners in top 4 – 6/9
Top picks: 3rd (no pay), -, 1st, 1st, 3rd, -, -, 1st, –
Best bet: 3rd (no pay)
Profit: -5.9
Wednesday 25/11/2020
R1- boxed first four
R2- boxed first four
Winners in top 4 – 6/8
Top picks: 1st, -, 1st, 3rd, -, 1st, -, –
Best bet: 3rd
Profit: 3.38

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