Ascot 27/11/2021

Conditions

Rail – 6m
Track – Good 4
Forecast – Max 36 degrees, sunny

Race 1 – Tourism WA Trophy – 1000m – 12:05pm

1 – The Front Bar
8 – Sockoff
7 – Sniparoochy
5 – Ultimate Command

Comment: The Front Bar is coming off a close but good win, where she showed a good turn of foot. She’s so versatile on where she can sit in the run and she’s unbeaten at this track/distance (2:2-0-0). Ability should see her going close here. Sockoff is coming off some really good trial wins. The form surrounding her races isn’t as strong as some of these other horses, but she has knocked off her maiden win. I’m interested to see how her trial form holds up. Sniparoochy was pipped on the line last start after leading all of the way. I would say she’s a better 1200m horse, so it’s interesting to see her drop down in distance here. Last start we saw a glimpse of her ability that we saw at her first two career starts. She can bounce back here. Ultimate Command was her own worst enemy last start. She drops down in distance here to a track/distance that she loves (3:2-1-0) and she only has to carry 54kg due to Laqdar’s claim. She gets 2kg on The Front Bar where she only finished less than a length off her. She’s incredible value.

Suggested bet: The Front Bar – each way

Race 2 – Mrs Mac’s Handicap – 1600m – 12:45pm

3 – That’s Funny Az
2 – Cockney Crew
1 – Divine Shadow
7 – Money Maher

Comment: That’s Funny Az burnt himself out too early in the Northam Cup, so just put a line through that run. He loves this track/distance (3:2-1-0) and only has to carry 56kg due to Holly’s claim. He can bounce back here. Cockney Crew showed that his trial win of 8.4L was worth following after narrowly finishing third to Kissonallforcheeks. Surprisingly he’s yet to place at this track/distance (2:0-0-0), but everything suggests that he should handle it. Besides that, my only concern is that he’s up 5.5kg on last start’s run. He’s not without his chances.  Divine Shadow was disappointing last preparation but perhaps he didn’t handle the Kalgoorlue track. He didn’t finish that far off the winner at his one trial leading into this race. He’s won first up before (5:1-1-0), has a pretty good track/distance record (2:1-1-0) and only has to carry 59kg due to Keshaw’s claim which puts him back in the race. He could surprise.  Money Maher is a real hit and miss horse. He perhaps wasn’t suited to 2200m, but his third behind Tollman at this track/distance was good. His trial was good but I’m surprised to see him open that short.

Suggested bet: That’s Funny Az and Cockney Crew – each way

Race 3 – Drummond Golf Handicap – 1200m – 1:25pm

9 – Secret Plan
6 – Triple Missile
4 – Resortman
8 – Charge

Comment: Secret Plan has just found one better at his last two starts. The form surrounding his runs is great though and he has a good track/distance record (5:1-2-1). He looks to be well suited here. Triple Missile has some of the strongest form in this race. He’s up in class, so drops 3kg off last start’s run. His track/distance record isn’t as good as my top tip (2:1-0-0) and he’s drawn wide. However, ability can see him winning this. Resortman hasn’t raced since February but has improved with each trial. He’s won first up before (3:2-0-0) and is actually unbeaten at this track/distance (2:2-0-0). With his turn of foot, he’s a cheeky race. Charge did well at his first start in WA. He drops 9kg off last start’s run, which is partly due to Keshaw’s claim. His form surrounding The Front Bar is good and he should improve with one WA run under his belt.

Suggested bet: Secret Plan, Triple Missile and Resortman – each way

Race 4 – TABtouch Westspeed Platinum Series Final – 1400m – 2:05pm

12 – Dais
1 – Holy Enchantment
2 – Nowhiteflag
5 – Beat The Bro

Comment: Dais is yet to finish outside of the top 3 in her career (4:1-2-1). She’s up in class, so does drop 4kg off last start’s run. She’s drawn incredibly awkwardly in barrier 12, but she did well to finish third from barrier 11 last start. She’s going to need a gun ride for Pike and a bit of luck. Holy Enchantment is ultra-consistent but was no match for Apple Schnapps last start. He has a good second up record (3:1-2-0) and has placed at this track/distance (1:0-1-0). There’s no reason why he can’t win. Nowhiteflag had quite a number of excuses last start, so I would just put a line through that run. He does have to give Dais 2kg since they last met, but he can bounce back here. Beat The Bro has had a few excuses in his past two runs but still managed to finish top 4 in both. He’s drawn a better barrier here, so he should be able to settle slightly further forward. He could surprise.

Suggested bet: Dais, Holy Enchantment, Nowhiteflag and Beat The Bro – each way

Race 5 – Crown Towers Handicap – 1400m – 2:45pm

3 – God Has Chosen
8 – Tri For Us
1 – Son Son
10 – Speed Dream

Comment: God Has Chosen might have won last start if he was able to get out in the straight. He’s up in distance here, to one he’s unbeaten over at this track (1:1-0-0). He’s down in class but up in the weights, and he should get an ideal run. $1.80 favourites always make me nervous, but he deserves to be the favourite. Tri For Us is super consistent, having yet to finish outside of the top 3 in her career (8:3-3-2). She looks to be ready to continue her good form after winning a trial first up. She’s also won at this track/distance (2:1-1-0). The only thing that is going to leave her vulnerable is barrier 10. If God Has Chosen doesn’t bring his A game, then this horse can win at great odds! Son Son certainly does his best work fresh, as he’s unbeaten first up (2:2-0-0). From barrier 6, he may find himself just outside No Surrender. At least he only has to carry 58.5kg with Holly’s claim and he has a good track/distance record (2:1-1-0). He could surprise. Speed Dream drops down in distance here which I thought would suit, but he’s actually only placed at this distance (2:0-1-0) and not at Ascot (1:0-0-0). He looks to be another victim of a wide barrier.

Suggested bet: God Has Chosen, Tri For Us and Son Son – each way

Race 6 – TABtouch Regional Championship Final: The Road To Ascot – 1200m – 3:25pm

8 – Warm ‘N’ Fuzzy
10 – Significant Hero
6 – Delago Dehero
9 – Alcina

Comment: Warm ‘N’ Fuzzy is yet to finish outside of the top 3 this preparation and seems to be flying at Geraldton. He does his best work from the front, so barrier 11 could be a blessing in disguise. He also has a good distance record (2:1-0-1). He’ll give them something to run down. Significant Hero showed a really good turn of foot two starts ago and he can certainly run on, so they may opt to go back from barrier 8. He’s no stranger to this distance (9:3-3-0) and should run a good race. Delago Dehero actually won the Geraldton heat, betting my top two tips in the process, though the start before that he was beaten by Significant Hero. The biggest concern is barrier 12 and how much energy he’ll have to use from there. Not without his chances though. Alcina brings different form lines to this race. She’s also consistent and never finishes that far off the winner. She’s probably in career best form and rounds out a very even race!

Suggested bet: Warm ‘N’ Fuzzy, Significant Hero, Delago Dehero and Alcina – each way

Race 7 – Japan Racing Association Trophy – 2100m – 4:05pm

4 – Midnight Blue
11 – Temptacion
7 – Bad Wolf
9 – Poulton Le Sands

Comment: Midnight Blue won in a nice fashion second up. He’s never actually raced over 2100m before, but everything suggests that he should handle it. Barrier 10 does cause some concerns but at least he can run on to some extent. Connections will be looking for a good run as he makes his way to the Perth Cup. Temptacion was disappointing last start behind Midnight Blue, with no real excuses written up in the stewards’ report. The only thing is whether she got too far but it’s not unusual for her to get back in her races. She steps up in distance here and considering her performances in the Oaks and Derby back in April, she should be well suited to these conditions. Look for her to bounce back here. Bad Wolf finished second to Midnight Blue last start and gets 2.5kg on him here. He probably had more of an ideal run last start, so I don’t think the weight alone is enough to turn the tables. No reason why he won’t be in the finish though. Poulton Le Sands has had the 3 runs since arriving in WA. He’s gotten far back in those runs, so from barrier 1, I’d love to see what he can do when settled slightly more on the speed. He may just find one better here.

Suggested bet: Midnight Blue and Temptacion – each way

Race 8 – Crown Perth-Winterbottom Stakes – 1200m – 4:45pm

16 – Wilchino
2 – Elite Street
15 – Graceful Girl
1 – Rock Magic

Comment: Wilchino is looking to make it 7 wins in a row across two preparations. She’s up in class but does drop 3.5kg off last start’s run. She’s also unbeaten at this track/distance (1:1-0-0). From barrier 1, hopefully, she jumps well, as she’ll easily find the front then. Whether she can match it to proven group horses is my only concern. Elite Street basically has said the Winterbottom is his for the taking. His turn of foot last start from barrier 14 with 59.5kg really put the writing on the wall. He’s going to need to put in a similar performance here from barrier 10, but he does drop down to 58.5kg. He’s not going to want Wilchino too far gone on the corner, but this horse can make it back-to-back Winterbottom wins. Graceful Girl finished second behind Elite Street last start but actually has to give him 3kg here due to the conditions of the race. Barrier 18 (16 with scratchings) looks to cause her some trouble, but she does have a turn of foot and she is unbeaten at this track/distance (2:2-0-0). Never rule out a Pike/Peters/Williams combination in a feature race like this! Rock Magic didn’t finish that far off Elite Street last start. He’s third up here, so should be spot on fitness wise and he’s no stranger to this track/distance (10:2-0-4). I don’t think there will be a dry eye on track if he can go out with a fairy tale finish.

Suggested bet: Wilchino, Elite Street, Graceful Girl and Rock Magic – each way

Race 9 – Heineken 3 Handicap – 1400m – 5:20pm

2 – Apple Schnapps
6 – Beret
12 – Em Tee Aye
4 – Bogart

Comment: Apple Schnapps continued his good form last start, with an ultra-impressive win. Thanks to that start, he’s unbeaten at this track/distance (1:1-0-0). He’s up in class so he does drop 1kg off last start. My only concern is how much energy he’ll have to use from barrier 11 to get to the front, but last start he did win from barrier 12. Look for him to make it 3 wins in a row. Beret is also coming off a good win. She led all the way to win there, so Apple Schnapps might have some company at the front. Hopefully, they don’t burn each other out. She’s no stranger to this track/distance (5:2-3-0) and it wouldn’t be a surprise at all to see her win. Em Tee Aye finished fourth behind Beret and gets 3.5kg on her here. This horse is always close but can’t quite get the chocolates. He’s proven at this track/distance (6:2-0-2) and from barrier 3 he’ll be able to settle in a forward position that he likes. He’ll be in the finish once again. Bogart is a horse that I can’t quite get my head around. His two trials leading into this race have been good without winning and he does have a good first up record (5:3-0-0). He’s drawn a touch wide and with speed in the race, I think Pike will have to take him back. I’m curious to see what he does here.

Suggested bet: Apple Schnapps, Beret, Em Tee Aye and Bogart – each way

Best Bet

Race 7 – Midnight Blue

Quaddie

R6: 6, 7, 8, 9, 10
R7: 4, 7, 11
R8: 1, 2, 9, 11, 15, 16
R9: 1, 2, 4, 6, 12

Confidence rating

My confidence varies this week. I’m mostly confident about races 5 and 7. Race 6 is an absolute nightmare while races 3, 4, 8 and 9 are even with a few horses you can make a case for. With only two weeks left of 2021 tipping, I’m hoping to get a profit!

Last Week’s Results

R1:trifecta
Winners in top 4: 9/11
Top picks: 1st, 2nd,-, 2nd, 1st, -,1st, 1st, -, 2nd
Best bet: 2nd
Quaddie: No
Profit: -3 ($1ew on top tips & $2ew on bb)