Ascot 27/03/2021

Conditions

Rail – 9m
Track – Good 4
Forecast – Max 28 degrees, sunny

Race 1 – Let’s Celebrate City Of Belmont Handicap – 2200m – 12:14pm

6 – Unreliable
1 – Bella’s Idol
2 – Freez’emoff
4 – Marocchino

Comment: Unreliable has won two in a row and got back in those races. From barrier three and with the small field he should go well and handle the step up in class. Bella’s Idol won in stronger company (at listed level) but doesn’t have the best track/distance record (4:1-0-0). Freez’emoff is coming off poor Geraldton form but has shown she’s better than that and Marocchino is a bit hit and miss.

Suggested bet: Unreliable and Bella’s Idol – each way

Race 2 – TABtouch Westspeed Platinum Handicap – 1200m – 12:54pm

1 – Lord Lonsdale
4 – Prized Nemesis
2 – Pink ‘N’ Gray
3 – Carabinier

Comment: Lord Lonsdale is coming off a winning trial and has won first up before (2:1-0-0). He only has to carry 57kg with Kristy’s claim which puts him back in the race. Prized Nemesis does have a turn of foot but looked to have got stuck in traffic two starts ago. He bounced back with a second last start and could go one better here. Pink ‘N’ Grey is on the six day back up after being a bit disappointing last start. Carabinier was disappointing last preparation but won a trial leading into this race and has won first up before (4:2-0-0).

Suggested bet: Lord Lonsdale – each way

Race 3 – Belmont’s Bunuru Plate – 1000m – 1:34pm

3 – Story Book
5 – Sockoff
4 – Queen’s Gift
7 – Kaymay

Comment: Story Book is on the one-week backup after getting too far back in the group 3 Gimcrack. She’ll only have to carry 52kg with Kristy’s claim so should bounce back here. Sockoff had a few excuses at her first run but based off her trials, she can definitely win this. Queen’s Gift improved with each trail and should improve here after running second to Pat’s Got Sass first up. Kaymay has had just the one trial which she won.

Suggested bet: Story Book, Sockoff, Queen’s Gift and Kaymay – each way

Race 4 – Schweppes – Melvista Stakes – 2200m – 2:13pm

1 – Western Empire
3 – Outback Jack
2 – Off Wego
4 – Flash Ducati

Comment: Western Empire should be winning this with his eyes closed as long as he can handle the distance. He has the class and the ability. I’m not surprised to see him open that short. Outback Jack is consistent but has been racing in a lower class. Off Wego and Flash Ducati have form behind Western Empire.

Suggested bet: Western Empire – win

Race 5 – Kirin Megumi Handicap – 1800m – 2:55pm

2 – Miss Marietta
4 – Eurasia
5 – Melarab
3 – Beret

Comment: Miss Marietta is looking to make it three wins in a row. The wide barrier may just get the better of her and she has to give some of these other horses weight. Eurasia beat Reliable Star last start which looks to be very good form, but again the wide barrier could pose a problem. Melarab finished second to Mis Marietta last start and gets 1.5kg on her here. He seems to have really appreciated leading at his last two starts so he will give them something to run down here. Beret finished fifth to Miss Marietta last start. She’s consistently in the top four and will appreciate having Pike back in the saddle.

Suggested bet: Miss Marietta, Eurasia, Melarab and Beret – each way

Race 6 – Schweppes Handicap – 1400m – 3:30pm

2 – Tinsnip
1 – Downforce
3 – Notorious One
11 – Katona

Comment: Tinsnip was poor last preparation, but looks to have bounced back well, both at his trials and races. He’s third up so will be spot on fitness wise. The 60.5kg is my only concern. Downforce has been consistently lately and probably has slightly stronger form lines than Tinsnip. He also only has to carry 59kg with Laqdar’s claim. He’s a threat. Notorious One has had the one quiet trial leading into this race and is unbeaten first up. Katona is up in class but does seem to have a turn of foot. Sneaky value chance.

Suggested bet: Tinsnip, Downforce and Notorious One – each way

Race 7 – Amelia Park Handicap – 1200m – 4:10pm

10 – Amasenus
1 – Some Sort
7 – Grand Design
5 – Mood Swings

Comment: Amasenus is coming off two wins and looks to be a horse on the way up. She’s up in class but has placed at this distance before (2:0-1-0). Some Sort does have better Belmont form, so will be better on a soft track. However, he has won a trial leading into this race. Grand Design is up in class but been racing consistently and has good form. In particular, I like her track/distance record (4:1-2-0). Mood Swings is hard to fault but yet to place at this track/distance (2:0-0-0).

Suggested bet: Amasenus – each way

Race 8 – City Of Belmont – WA Oaks – 2400m – 4:45pm

3 – Pure Devotion
2 – Reliable Star
4 – Temptacion
1 – Brave Angel

Comment: Pure Devotion narrowly went down to Solaia last start. She’s yet to place outside of the top three (4:1-2-1) Plus Pike in the saddle for a feature race is always a bonus. Reliable Star finished third behind Solaia and Pure Devotion last start. Pure Devotion just has a better turn of foot. Temptacion is dramatically up in class but she is coming off two wins and she can run on. Brave Angel had a few excuses last start but I’m not convinced she can comfortably run out this distance.

Suggested bet: Pure Devotion and Reliable Star – each way

Race 9 – Auto Classic Bmw Handicap – 1000m – 5:20pm

11 – Miss Conteki
6 – River Beau
1 – Captain Kink
2 – My Demi

Comment: Miss Conteki has shown us that she is full of ability, but I’m surprised to see her open at those sorts of odds. River Beau proved me wrong last start, coming out and winning. He does have the wide barrier here though. Captain Kink puzzles me. He has ability but was disappointing last start. The 60kg may just take its toll here if he leads all of the way. My Demi got way too far back last start but he can bounce here.

Suggested bet: Miss Conteki – each way, River Beau – place

Best Bet

Race 4 – Western Empire

Confidence rating

My confidence kind of comes in waves today. I’m mostly concerned about races 2, 3, 5 and 6 though. I feel like having Western Empire has my best bet is a bit of a cope out given how short his odds are, but it is the race I’m most confident about. Fingers crossed he wins now!

Last Week’s Results

R1 – exacta
Winners in top 4- 7/9
Top picks: 1st, 1st, 3rd, 2nd, -, -, 3rd, –
Best bet: 1st
Profit: -1.16