Horse Racing,  Tipping

Ascot 25/01/2020

Conditions

Rail – 5m
Track – Good 4
Forecast – Max 34, sunny

Race 1 – Amelia Park Lamb Plate – 1000m – 12:47pm

This is a very hard race to start the day off with many winnable chances, however, it will be a great battle between the two David Harrison runners. Gemma’s Son goes on top by a very narrow margin. He won at this distance and track last start but his trial leading into that race was extra impressive. My only small concern is the 3 weeks between races. Chix Chatter doesn’t know how to lose, winning two trials and his first race. He draws just outside of Gemma’s Son so expect them to be going with each other. He did record an even so slightly better 600m time than Gemma’s Son in their last starts, so this may come in handy here. La Farola had a dead heat for first place with Chix Chatter last start. The extra 200m (compared to this race) probably wasn’t in her favour seeing as she was leading, so dropping down in distance should benefit. Keep Your Feet has won two trials leading into this race, beating Castillo Del Lago and Doolittle along the way. He has a sticky barrier and meets some very good horses for his first start but should go well.
1 – Gemma’s Son
2 – Chix Chatter
3 – La Farola
9 – Keep Your Feet

Race 2 – Mrs Mac’s Maiden – 1200m – 1:27pm

Trade Fair Express has been racing well and showed a fantastic turn of foot at his last start last preparation. He finished third first up so he should improve off that run. Mims Win comes into this race without having trialled, but he performed well fresh up in his trials last preparation. He settled way too far back in his races but did run on so if he could settle further forward that would be good. Pick Your Battles finished second to Tinto Belle first up, which is good form in my opinion, before getting too far back last start after missing the start. He has a very wide barrier, but this looks to be a suitable race. Attila’sDream has been improving with each run and should be fit third up here. He does have the wide barrier to overcome but has faced this problem before.
3 – Trade Fair Express
9 – Mims Win
1 – Pick Your Battles
10 – Attila’s Dream

Race 3 – TabTouch Westspeed Platinum Handicap – 1200m – 2:07pm

Lacevinsky is a very consistent horse and has faced some great horses (resulting in a 50% second place rate). He gets every chance here in what seems to be a weaker race compared to his previous starts. Round The Point won’t know himself with only 56kg on his back (compared to 60kg in his past two runs). He’s come second at both starts this preparation, though I question whether he’s had some physical issues given the spacing of his trials and runs. He’s a horse to back if you like tipping an outsider. City Circle has mixed form, but she did win last start and should bring confidence from that win. Morgs Freeman came third to City Circle last start, where he was third up with no trial. His races have been quite spaced, but he should settle into a better spot from that barrier.
3 – Lacevinsky
6 – Round The Point
2 – City Circle
4 – Morgs Freeman

Race 4 – Vale Malcolm Clements Handicap – 1000m – 2:44pm

Indian Pacific has never tasted defeat in two trials and two races but has to carry the 60kg because of it. The weight may be the issue here, especially if he leads like his previous races. Guesteen meets Indian Pacific 2.5kg better here which may play a big factor. She, however, is on the one-week backup but should get cover with many horses wanting to go forward. Dew West doesn’t have as strong of form lines, but she has won two in a row leading into this race. She deserves her chance at a crack of Saturday city win. Drinkwhatyoulike will be heavily back as Pike takes the ride for the first time (“Back Pike Drink What You Like”). The horse has had two months between races, but she has good form and a good first up record (3:1-1-0).
1 – Indian Pacific
7 – Guesteen
5 – Dew West
2 – Drinkwhatyoulike

Race 5 – Australia Day Trophy – 1500m – 3:20pm

Dance Music is in the best form and should be winning here. She does have to give many other horses some weight after she beat them last start, but I believe she has the ability to overcome this. Like AButterfly brings different form lines to this race, including two listed race seconds in December. She was slightly disappointing last start (however it was a group 3 race) but can bounce back here with Pike on board. Lordhelpmerun showed us a bit of his old self last start, running third to Dance Music. He got too far back and isn’t known to run on lately, so if he can settle further forward then he should go better. One thing to note was that he did run the fastest 600m in the race against Dance Music. Disposition surprised everyone, coming second to Dance Music last start carrying 61.5kg. He has to carry 62kg here and given his previous performances, I question whether he just had a lot of luck last start or whether going down in class has actually helped.
4 – Dance Music
5 – Like A Butterfly
6 – Lordhelpmerun
1 – Disposition

Race 6 – Amelia Park Lodge Handicap – 1200m – 3:55pm

Free Trade is one of my favourite horses (that I don’t own) and he was simply beaten by his barrier and a horse on the way up last start. He’s second up here and should be winning, though he faces a tough competitor in Flower of War. Flower of War is building quite the picket fence, going for three in a row here. The form surrounding her races might not be as good, but she definitely has ability and is a serious threat. Daishio came second to Flower of War last start but still has to give her 2kg. She’s third up here but I’m not sure she can beat my top two picks. Festival Miss was unlucky last start so I’m willing to give her another chance here due to her good career record (12:3-3-3).
2 – Free Trade
4 – Flower of War
7 – Daishio
5 – Festival Miss

Race 7 – D’Orsogna Handicap – 1400m – 4:30pm

Serenity Bay is a horse with ability, never placing outside of the top two (5:3-2-0). She won last start and should be even fitter second up. She showed a nice turn of foot last start and Pike chooses her over Put A Spell On You which gives me confidence. Put A Spell On You is a winner of two in a row coming into this race and she doesn’t look to be stopping after last start’s performance. Pike jumps off in favour of my top pick, but this horse is a major threat. Nobelium came second to Serenity Bay and gets 1.5kg on her here. He has also been racing well prior but maybe slightly outclassed here. Abby Lane also comes out of the Serenity Bay race, where he came fifth. He came into this preparation two starts ago with no trial, so with two runs under his belt now he should be fit. However, one negative to his name is that he definitely goes better on a softer track.
7 – Serenity Bay
9 – Put A Spell On You
8 – Nobelium
5 – Abby Lane

Race 8 – Iron Jack Handicap – 3yo Classic – 1800m – 5:10pm

Too Close The Sun was a horse to be reckoned with in the winter and he looks to have come back just as good, with a quiet trial leading into this race. Perceptive Miss looks to be running well lately, only placing outside the top three once this preparation (4:1-1-1). She does like to get back and run on, so the extra distance should benefit. Burning Pride won last start in a nice fashion and will be looking for another win here. She can definitely do that but has been a bit hit and miss for my liking. Misty Lad has been racing consistently third and fourth. He steps up to the 1800m for the first time which may be the key to going one better.
3 – Too Close The Sun
11 – Perceptive Miss
7 – Burning Pride
6 – Misty Lad

Race 9 – Crown Towers Handicap – 1600m – 5:50pm

Kelly’s Gem had three trials (winning the last two) leading into her first up race where she got second. She seemed to get too far back in that race and may find herself in the same position here with that barrier, but she has shown that she can run on. Gates of Babylon has been racing really well with a second and a third this preparation, with that third behind Put A Spell On You. He has a wide barrier, but the low weight should overcome this. Arnie’s Boy has been improving which each run this preparation, peaking with a win last start. While he hasn’t won a lot previously, it’s his turn of foot which I love. Superior Smile won last start over 2000m, so dropping back to 1600m has me puzzled, as is the decrease in class which has resulted in a lot of weight (though not too much with Chris’ claim). However, the horse has been consistently placing so this will be interesting to watch.
12 – Kelly’s Gem
8 – Gates of Babylon
6 – Arnie’s Boy
1 – Superior Smile


Best Bet

Race 7 – Serenity Bay

Confidence rating

I’ve tipped a heap of favourites today at short odds on top which makes me nervous. I’m also going for my third week in a row of recording a profit, so there’s that extra pressure. However, I think there’s definitely a few winners in my top four selections.

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