Ascot 24/10/2020

Conditions

Rail – 7m
Track – Good 4
Forecast – Max 30 degrees, sunny

Race 1 – Westspeed Platinum Maiden – 1600m – 11:38pm

Melarab has put in two really nice, winning trials leading into this race. His two previous races certainly weren’t the best back in February, but he looks to have matured with the time off. In those previous races, he did seem to get a bit far back, so while 1600m is a long way first up, I think it will suit him. He only has to carry 55kg with Beaux’s claim and has a good barrier. If he brings his trial performances, he should run a good race. Trade Fair Express just always seems to find one better and is yet to win in fifteen starts (15:0-5-5). Arguably he’s gone close plenty of times and I suspect that will be the case again here. He was disappointing two starts ago but bounced back with a winning trial and then placing second at Ascot. He does like Ascot (5:0-2-2) though I would say he’s better suited over 1400m, only placing at this distance once (2:0-0-1) and never at this track/distance (1:0-0-0). He’s drawn wide but with the small field, he shouldn’t get too far back. This looks to be a very suitable race in terms of the other horses’ ability, so fingers crossed for connections he can finally get a win on the board. Nick Of Time is racing in some of his career best form. He went into this preparation without a trial, so being third up here he should definitely have fitness on his side. The form surrounding those two races is also good plus stepping up in distance looks to benefit him, though he’s actually never placed over 1600m (2:0-0-0). There’s really not much to complain about him this preparation. I just think my top tip is a horse on the way to better races compared to this horse. Diffusion has a year off the racing scene, before being seen again at trials in August this year. That amount of time off does raise a few questions for me, especially if it was due to injury. However, he seems to have bounced back fine, recording a third and a fifth. That fifth was actually behind Trade Fair Express (second) and Nick Of Time (third) but he meets them evenly at the weights. He did get held up in the straight there, so he perhaps could have gone closer. He’s placed at this distance before (2:0-0-2) and from that inside barrier he should be able to settle closer to the speed, perhaps even following Redmill into the race who looks to be the leader and has drawn outside of him. He should only improve as he gets further into the preparation.
7 – Melarab
1 – Trade Fair Express
3 – Nick Of Time
4 – Diffusion

Race 2 – Tabtouch – Better Your Bet MAIDEN – 1200m – 12:18pm

Silent Act showed a really good turn of foot first up and looks to be ready for a win after successful placings last preparation. Her turn of foot was extra impressive first up and combined with her better second up record (1:0-1-0), this could be the race in which she breaks her maiden. She may be even better next start over more distance, but she has placed at the track/distance before (2:0-1-0). With a good barrier, she can win. Beau Zoom is having his first start in WA after coming over from Victoria. His results over east certainly weren’t disappointing, so I am surprised to see him here. He did improve with each trial in WA, coming out and winning at his latest one. He’s drawn wide so it will be interesting to see where he settles. At least he does prefer a good track (3:0-3-0). Despite being new to WA, don’t rule him out. Keytrade was a bit hit and miss in his trials, but he did win one leading into his maiden race. In that race he did get back to near last from a wide barrier, however, he did manage to run on and finish midfield. He’s drawn a slightly better barrier, but I think running on a good track should benefit him. He should only improve with one run under his belt. Taken On Strength finished third at her maiden race. That was behind Airlie Queen who looks to be a good horse in the making, so the form surrounding that race is good. Not many horses look to be going forward in this race, so given her previous racing pattern and the wide barrier, if she uses a bit of energy early on, she may be able to settle just outside the leader quite easily. Of course, if she misses the jump it’s all over though. I’m not sure she’s up to Saturday form just yet, but she’s a great place value bet.
9 – Silent Act
1 – Beau Zoom
6 – Keytrade
13 – Taken On Strength

Race 3 – Crown Perth Plate – 1000m – 12:59pm

Fatale Femme won at her first start, leading all of the way. She beat a few of these other horses in the process and does have to give them 2kg as a result. However, from barrier one, as long as she jumps well, she shouldn’t get too far back and hopefully not stuck on the rail. Track conditions and distance are exactly the same as last time, so I can’t see any reason why she won’t win again. Gorgeous Gossip is having her first start here. She has won both of her trials leading into this race, though the wins were by narrow margins. Given her results though, 1000m doesn’t look to be too short for her and both trials were on a good track too. From that almost perfect barrier she should be able to settle into a nice position. She’ll only improve off this run, but I’m surprised to see her opening at $14/$3.10. Great value tip! The Lady Is A Vamp finished second behind Fatale Femme last start and gets 2kg on her as a result as I previously mentioned. She led all the way that start and I expect her to take up a similar position in running here. From the wide barrier this may mean that she has to use a bit of energy early on to get the position, but with no one left to cross her, she can easily get this position if she wants. With so many maidens in the race, it’s hard to tell whether any pressure will be applied to her early on. After coming off some good trials, she can easily win this without surprising. Crowned Princess also comes out of Fatale Femme’s race, where she finished third. This means she also gets the 2kg on her here. In that race she did get a bit far back, so it would be nice to see what she could do from the first half of the field. Her last 600m time was the quickest behind Fatale Femme, so this could prove valuable here. She’s drawn wide, but this does present the opportunity to follow The Lady Is A Vamp into the race. She improved off her trials which is great to see and she should only improve further with one race under her belt. Another great place value tip!
1 – Fatale Femme
8 – Gorgeous Gossip
4 – The Lady Is A Vamp
5 – Crowned Princess

Race 4 – Guinness Handicap – 2200m – 1:38pm

Bonneville Black was his own worst enemy last start, over racing when leading. However, in his previous three winning starts, he did settle second in running, so not really sure why leading was a problem for him last start. Hopefully, connections have worked out a way to make him relax, as he certainly does his best racing from the front. He’s drawn wide but this should make getting to the front easily, plus he’s won from out wide before, so it isn’t too much of a concern over these longer distances. He also has a great record at this distance (2:1-0-1) and has placed at this track/distance before (1:0-0-1) which was last start. The only concern would be that he rises 3kg off last start, due to Jade riding and connections not using Madi’s claim. 55kg is certainly nothing to be worried about though. I’m looking for him to bounce back to his winning ways here. Double Digit won last start, beating Bonneville Black in the process. He does rise 2kg off that run, but due to Bonneville Black not making use of an apprentice’s claim, he actually gets 1kg on him. Prior to that win, his races have been good, except for that one run where he simply got too far back. He has drawn wide here, so I hope that Chris will opt to go forward, though with a small field he shouldn’t get stuck in too much traffic. If my top tip doesn’t bring his best behaviour, this horse can easily win. Mackenzie Brooke makes the Double Digit form the one to follow here, as she also comes out of that race where she finished fifth. She did get a touch further back than she’s used (by like one or two horses), but there’s nothing in the stewards’ report to suggest why she didn’t finish closer. Her last two starts have been ok, though I particularly like her first up run behind Montelena where she finished second. Once again, she only has to carry 56kg with Laqdar’s claim and her track/distance record is very good (3:2-0-0). She can surprise. Mosseratti also comes out of the same race as my top three tips, where he finished fourth. He’s been placing in the top four pretty consistently but is yet to actually win over this distance (13:0-4-0), though his track/distance record is slightly better (6:0-3-0). Interesting to note that he’s been racing since April, so there’s a question mark on whether he’s getting towards the end of his preparation. Given his form though, he does only have to carry 54kg and he’s drawn lovely in barrier four. He may just find my top tip too good.
5 – Bonneville Black
3 – Double Digit
2 – Mackenzie Brooke
8 – Mosseratti

Race 5 – Schweppes Handicap – 1400m – 2:14pm

Dom To Shoot did nominate for the Belgravia but I’m assuming that opted for this race to avoid Clairvoyance. He’s probably one of the few horses on the way up here, with great form surrounding his races. 1200m does look to be his ideal distance, but he has placed over this distance before (1:0-1-0), which was actually in the group 3 WA Sires last preparation. The wide barrier looks to be a concern, but he did win from barrier twelve last start. He also rises 1.5kg in the weights due to that run, but again, he’s comfortably placed with 59.5kg before. With Ascot being his favourite track (7:3-2-0), it’s hard to see a reason why he won’t win. Western Pride only bad run and only time outside the top three (6:4-1-0) was when she was eased out of the races due to an uncomfortable action. With that aside, she looks to have bounced back this preparation with a second first up. She returns to Ascot here where she is unbeaten (1:1-0-0) and this distance definitely suits her too (3:2-1-0). She’s drawn wide but can run on to some extent and with Laqdar’s claim she only had to carry 54.5kg. She’s a huge threat to my top tip. Em Tee Aye actually raced in the WA Sires last preparation too where he finished third. After what looked to be a terrible trial on paper, he then came out and won first up, beating Empire Reign in the process, who lines up in the Belgravia here. Despite placing in a group 3, he drops 3kg off last start. Combined with his good track/distance record (2:1-0-1), this looks to be a very good race for him. He’s drawn wide but that’s really the only negative I can see. He can surprise. Rebel Knight is apparently way over the odds according to Darren in an interview on TAB Radio yesterday. Due to the rise in class, he does drop 2.5kg off last start’s run. In that race he finished at very good odds, so it looks to be a similar case here. One statistic that is not to be forgotten is that he is unbeaten over this track/distance (1:1-0-0). The wide barrier is the factor that is probably inflating his odds the most, but as long as he doesn’t settle worse than midfield, he should be ok. I wouldn’t be leaving him out of your multis.
3 – Dom To Shoot
6 – Western Pride
14 – Em Tee Aye
5 – Rebel Knight

Race 6 – Devil’s Lair Handicap – 1200m – 2:55pm

Oristano looks to be a great horse in the making and I’m certainly surprised to see him at those odds. He had won two in a row before getting back too far last start where he finished fourth. This was only his second time outside of the top two too (7:2-3-0). He does like this distance (3:1-1-0), though is yet to place at this track/distance (1:0-0-0). Another concern would be that he’s drawn wide, but we saw last start that he can run on and as long as he doesn’t get back worse than midfield, I can’t see it being a problem. Joey does jump off in favour of Congreve Rocket, so maybe he thinks she’s a better horse. However, given how even the field is and that he looks to be a horse with some ability, I’m willing to take the $12 risk. Ocean’s Fifteen is by far a safer bet in this race! He’s a very consistent horse and loves this distance (6:2-3-1) and track/distance (4:1-2-1). It’s these statistics that I think could give him the winning edge! The only negatives are that he does seem to go better fresh and he has drawn extremely wide here. He can win without surprising. Congreve Rocket is coming off a win last preparation over this distance, though the race was at Pinjarra. He is one of a couple of horses that will be looking to lead this race and as long as he jumps well, I can’t see why he won’t get to the lead easily. He comes into this race without a trial, but he has placed when first up before (1:0-0-1). The biggest concern for me is that we’ve only ever seen him race on a soft track, both at trials and the races. If he handles that condition, he’ll be giving them something to run down. Bragwell has shown good ability at trials and the races, winning his maiden race last start. The biggest thing I like about him and what looks to be an advantage, is that he can settle either forward or back in running. I suspect from that barrier they’ll look to go forward, but don’t panic if that doesn’t happen. All of his career starts have come over this distance (2:1-1-0) and combined with his trial results I would think that he’s not looking for much further. He may have been an emergency (but gains a start with scratchings), but he rounds out a very even top four and race!
10 – Oristano
5 – Ocean’s Fifteen
18 – Congreve Rocket
19 – Bragwell

Race 7 – Belgravia Stakes – 1200m – 3:30pm

Mystical View is definitely an outside winning chance, but when Clairvoyance is paying what she is, I’m going to make more of a profit tipping for a place than a win. In fact, if it wasn’t for Clairvoyance than this filly’s odds would be a lot shorter (which they now are due to her being scratched)! Her last 600m time last start (which she won) is probably one of the quickest I’ve ever seen. This turn of foot does make me nervous that she might be able to run Clairvoyance (and now the rest of the field). She also drops 4kg off that win due to the rise in class, resulting in her carrying a very competitive 53kg. She steps up in distance but that should only give her more time to run them down. The wide barrier could also be a concern but again, her turn of foot should help her overcome this. No matter the result here look out for her in the future. Queen Brown did give connections of Clairvoyance a bit of a fright last start, running on well late. She missed the start in that race, so given her turn of foot, she could go closer if she settles a bit further forward in running. She loves Ascot (4:1-2-1), has placed at this track/distance (1:0-1-0) and is unbeaten second up (2:2-0-0). With a good barrier, she can certainly win here! Magical Dream is another one of Mr Peters’ that comes into this race unbeaten (2:2-0-0). The only reason I’ve chosen her stablemate over her is that her turn of foot isn’t as fast and her trials haven’t been as flashy. She has drawn wide too so I suspect they’ll be tracking each other into the race. Again, if there was no Clairvoyance (which there is now), she could easily be winning this. Gemma’s Son just faded a bit late after trying to match Clairvoyance’s speed last start. With no Clairvoyance in this race, he’ll be able to lead easily and roll along at whatever speed he wants. From barrier five that lead shouldn’t be too hard to get either. He has a great track record (5:3-0-1), but is yet to place at this track/distance (1:0-0-0). Keep in mind that race was the group 2 Karrakatta, where he finished fourth, so it wasn’t a complete disaster. I think he’ll improve fitness wise third up and will give them all something to run down!
10 – Mystical View
7 – Queen Brown
9 – Magical Dream
1 – Gemma’s Son

Race 8 – Amelia Park Handicap – 1200m – 4:10pm

Celebrity Queen ended last preparation in fantastic style and after winning first up this preparation, she looks to be in for bigger and better things. Her track/distance record isn’t the best (3:1-0-0) and she’s yet to win second up (2:0-1-0), but I think she’s a better horse this preparation. Her turn of foot is probably her biggest weapon and from the good barrier she shouldn’t get too far back. With great form surrounding her races, she should go well. Festival Miss has changed trainers from the Williams team to Adam Durrant, which is a transition a few Peters’ horses have made. She was really hitting her straps towards the end of last preparation, though it’s slightly hard to tell if that’s the case here as she comes into this race without a trial. However, she does have a good first up record (4:2-1-0), though her track/distance record could be better (4:0-0-2). She only has to carry 55kg with Laqdar’s claim which with her turn of foot should help to overcome the wide barrier. She’s another live chance for Mr Peters! Long Beach did over race last start due to the tempo of the race, which is a bit of a concern for me as it suggests that he can be his own worst enemy. However, his winning races prior to that were very good, so hopefully, he can bounce back here. His track record is great (3:2-0-1), he’s unbeaten at this track/distance (1:1-0-0) and he definitely does his best work on a good track (5:4-0-1). I wouldn’t be surprised to see a cerise and white trifecta. Laverrod has just ran into a few good horses last preparation and first up and unfortunately, I don’t think that’s going to change here. If we look back to May, he did beat Festival but does have to give her 1.5kg here as a result. The biggest thing in his favour is his track/distance record (3:1-2-0) and his second up record, when though he’s yet to win (3:0-2-1). He’s a quality horse but this is a quality field!
8 – Celebrity Queen
6 – Festival Miss
14 – Long Beach
2 – Laverrod

Race 9 – Irish Day Handicap – 1800m – 4:45pm

Cuban Twist good form all comes from Kalgoorlie, but you can’t knock winning form. She is unbeaten second up (1:1-0-0) and loves this distance (3:2-1-0). She’s yet to race at Ascot but if she can handle that aided by a good jockey, I think she’s worth the risk at those odds. Bogart is a horse other tipsters are loving and considering he only placed second at Kalgoorlie this preparation I’m surprised more people don’t like my top tip. However, this horse did place second in the listed J C Roberts, which is over this distance at this track. He’s also got a very good barrier and only has to carry 57kg with Laqdar’s claim. If he brings that listed form than watch out! Great Waters doesn’t really run a bad race, though he can get into a bit of trouble when he gets too far back. He won last start over 2150m, so it’s interesting to see him step down to 1800m. However, due to the increase in class, he does drop 3.5kg. Honestly, I’m not really sure what drew me towards him, but if he can run more on pace, I think he could surprise. Expressionist definitely hasn’t been racing at his best this preparation. His best races came at the end of last preparation, which were over 1200-1400m so it’s interesting to see him step up to 1800m. Given that he does like to run on from the back, the extra distance could benefit. Being third up he will have fitness on his side, so hopefully, he can bounce back here.
5 – Cuban Twist
2 – Bogart
8 – Great Waters
6 – Expressionist

Best Bet

Race 4 – Bonneville Black

Confidence rating

Confidence isn’t too bad today, with races 6 and 9 being my biggest concern (and also my two value tips). Race 2 is also competitive, while race 5 looks to be a battle between my top two tips. With the scratching of Clairvoyance in race 7, it is much more of an even race. Fingers crossed is a winning day all round!

Last Week’s Results

Saturday 17/10/2020
Winners in top 4 – 3/9
Top picks: -, 1st, -, -, -, -, 1st, -, 2nd
Best bet: –
Profit: -2.3
Wednesday 21/10/2020
R1 – boxed first four
Winners in top 4 – 6/7
Top picks: 3rd (no pay), -, -, 2nd, 1st, -, –
Best bet: –
Profit: -8.4