Horse Racing,  Tipping

Ascot 23/11/2019

Conditions

Rail – 2m
Track – Good 4
Forecast – Max 30, sunny

Race 1 – Tourism WA Trophy – 1800m – 12:24pm

Jedaffair has been racing very well this preparation, including a third behind Cockney Crew last start, who was racing in the Railway Stakes before being scratched. With a good barrier and Pike in the saddle, she should go well. Here Comes Lenni has a great track record (2:1-1-0) and has shown he has an incredible turn of foot. My only question is whether dropping back from the 2100/2200m is a good idea and whether this distance is too short for him. Harry Thomas is always in the finish and I’ll be expecting the same result here. He does step up in distance and while he’s only raced over this distance once, for no placing, fitness-wise the distance shouldn’t be an issue. Brother’s Keeper won the York Cup last start, after dropping 4.5kg on his previous two runs this preparation. He only raises 0.5kg off the cup win, but whether that cup had the class that this race does is a question.
3 – Jedaffair
5 – Here Comes Lenni
4 – Harry Thomas
2 – Brother’s Keeper

Race 2 – Mumm Champagne – Crystal Slipper Stakes – 1100m – 1:04pm

A small field and lots of maidens make for an interesting race, but Our Danni goes on top. Our Danni is a winner of two trials and her first race, so she’s obviously a horse with some ability. Pike retains the ride and she drops 0.5kg from last start. Starfield Impact came second to Our Danni last start and without having watched the replay, it seems that they were fairly evenly matched. She’ll have fitness on her side and there’s no reason she can’t win. American Choice has trialled well, including one of 950m. It’s always hard to know how a maiden horse will good, but a good trial, barrier and jockey are all factors going for her. Kissonallforcheeks comes out of the Long May Your Run trial, as do two of the other maidens in this race. She came second but there wasn’t much in it, so she could be a watch and follow horse.
3 – Our Danni
4 – Starfield Impact
5 – American Choice
7 – Kissonallforcheeks

Race 3 – TabTouch – Better Your Bet Handicap – 1000m – 1:44pm

Downforce is up in class he but he has an incredible form (4:1-0-3) and if he brings that he looks hard to beat, especially with that weight and barrier. Misty Lad has consistently been racing fourth expect two starts ago where he came fifth. He had about two months off before last start, so perhaps he was needing that run. His turn of foot was good though and he can bounce back here. More Aces was racing well at a higher class and drops down here. He’s always there but can’t quite get the chocolates. Metro Boy has been racing well, though nothing jumps up at me. He’s had four different jockeys in five starts and gets another new jockey here in Damien Oliver. This is definitely not a downside, but the wide barrier is.
9 – Downforce
7 – Misty Lad
3 – More Aces
5 – Metro Boy

Race 4 –TabTouch – Placid Ark Stakes – 1200m – 2:24pm

Massimo is a winner of his last two starts and he’s going from strength to strength. This is definitely a stronger race, but he should be in the finish. Laverrod is yet to win a race (2:0-1-1) but he’s won all two trials leading into this race, so he’s a serious threat. Niccovi raced every well in Melbourne, including a second in a group 3 at Flemington. With her ability to sit forward or back, if the travel hasn’t knocked her around too much, she should go well. Obstination hasn’t been racing as well as some of the other horses in the race, but she does have form around good horses, so she could surprise here and would be very good value if she did.
1 – Massimo
5 – Laverrod
7 – Niccovi
9 – Obstination

Race 5 – Carbine Club of W.A. Stakes – 1400m – 3:00pm

Uni Time is a horse you know I love if you’ve been following my blog. He goes on top again, having never placed outside the top three in his career (10:5-3-2). Tally has incredible Eastern States form and I’m very excited to see him race in person. He drops down in distance by a lot and whether the travel has knocked him about is also a question, but he only needs to repeat an Eastern States performance to win. Arcadia Prince was very disappointing last start. This was put down to not having raced in twelve months, so I’m willing to give him another race. If he’s back to his best, he can win this. Alpha Sky had a maintenance run in a trial, so I wouldn’t worry too much that he came last there. He was racing well before that but I’m just not sure if he’s up to this race.
11 – Uni Time
1 – Tally
2 – Arcadia Prince
9 – Alpha Sky

Race 6 – Crown Perth – Jungle Mist Classic – 1200m – 3:35pm

Beautiful Mind got too far back last start and was racing very well before that, so I’m going to forgive that run. It was also her second time outside of the top 2 (7:3-2-0). I’m looking for her to bounce back here. Bel My Pago won last start in impressive fashion. She faces the same barrier of 14 here, but given last start this isn’t much of a concern; however she has had two months off with no trials in-between so there is a question over her fitness, though her first up record is very good (3:2-1-0). DanceMusic came second last start behind Uni Time, and she should only improve third up here. ElectricLight raced well in listed races last preparation. After getting too far back last start, she should appreciate the extra 200m and Pike in the saddle.
13 – Beautiful Mind
7 – Bel My Pago
3 – Dance Music
2 – Electric Light

Race 7 – Sky Racing – W.A. Guineas – 1600m – 4:10pm

Jericho Missile put in a good fight last start, but was unlucky coming second to Red Can Man. He gets a 3kg swing on him here and while the wide barrier is a concern, his turn of foot should make up for it. Red Can Man is a horse with some ability and has every opportunity to make it back to back wins. KayCee was unlucky last start, getting too far back from the barrier. She gets a better barrier here and should be able to optimise that turn of foot. If the fillies are better than the colts/geldings, she could be winning. Superstorm is rising dramatically in class, but it wouldn’t be a feature race without a Pike, Peters and Williams combination, so he must be respected.
2 – Jericho Missile
3 – Red Can Man
9 – Kay Cee
6 – Superstorm

Race 8 – Kirin – Railway Stakes – 1600m – 4:50pm

The race I’ve been waiting for is finally here! I’m looking at this race partly through the eyes of the owner of The Velvet King, so this race preview is slightly different. Regal Power is in some ways my biggest concern but then in others, he’s not. The Velvet King and he have versed three times before and The Velvet King has won every time, however that was before this autumn where Regal Power absolutely flourished. He has a great turn of foot, which he can use from the wide barrier and he has Pike in the saddle. If he gets a good run, look for him to be charging home. Reykjavik has good Melbourne form which makes me a bit nervous. Lindsey has said he’s travelled over nicely and the 1600m should suit. Once again, the wide barrier has a question mark over it, as is whether the form from his Melbourne races is that good. He’s a former WA horse, so familiar with the track and if an Eastern States horse is going to win, it’s going to be him. The Velvet King is second favourite and I can understand why. He’s been racing well, has a weight swing on most of the horses he’s raced against before, Darren hasn’t stopped praising him in the media and he has a great barrier (thanks me!). If this was a 1400m race I feel it would be a totally different story, but that extra 200m has me concerned, as does the fact that Chris is riding and doesn’t know The Velvet King as well as Mitchell (especially because The Velvet King has the habit of laying out) and that we could be leading with the scratching of Cockney Crew. I’m crossing everything that he wins though! Gatting got second in this race last year and is coming off a group 1 win at Flemington. He has more experience over the other horses, which may be an advantage, as is the fact that he could get the perfect run behind us with the scratching of Cockney Crew. Mitchell has been riding incredibly well for the stable and if Gatting brings his best form he can win this. Other horses that deserve a mention are Samizat, who’s coming off a win last start and Tellem We’re Comin, with his perfect distance record (4:4-0-0).  
12 – Regal Power
5 – Reykjavik
6 – The Velvet King
1 – Gatting

Race 9 – Magic Millions Handicap – 1200m – 5:30pm

Minus Looks drops back to 1200m and to a good track, which should suit. This doesn’t look like an overly strong race either. Rebel Yell won last start and could be in for a good preparation. He’s only placed outside the top three once on a good track (8:4-1-2) and the wide barrier isn’t a concern. With a low weight, he is right in this. Black Sabbath hasn’t lived up to the hype but his two runs back this preparation haven’t been bad and there’s no Uni Time in this race. Carocapo comes out of the same race as Black Sabbath, where he got third. However, Carocapo is a bit of a hit and miss horse and if he gets too far back it could be game over.
2 – Minus Looks
13 – Rebel Yell
9 – Black Sabbath
10 – Carocapo


Best Bet

Race 1 – Jedaffair

Confidence rating

I’m not confident at all. I’m not sure whether it’s the nerves getting to me or because they’re such evenly matched races. Either way, I’m looking forward to a great day of racing.

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