Ascot 23/01/2021

Conditions

Rail – 7m
Track – Good 4
Forecast – Max 27 degrees, humid, mostly sunny

Race 1 – Amelia Park Maiden – 1500m – 12:04pm

Springsure Lad has been improving with each run and looks to be ready for a win here. He’s yet to place outside of the top three in his career (2:0-1-1), he didn’t finish far off the winner last start and he has another good barrier. He steps up in distance ever so slightly, but this should only give him more time to run them down. Good chance. Oceanzara is also knocking on the door for a win. Her runs this preparation have been much better, finishing second at her last two starts. Blinkers go on for the first time and seeing as she likes to settle in the first few in running, they should hopefully help her settle more. She’s up in distance but again it looks like it will benefit her. My only concern is the wide barrier and that she’ll either get too far back or have to use energy early on to get that forward position. Don’t rule her out. Shadow Shifter is yet to win in twenty-four starts (24:0-3-4), which is slightly concerning. Maybe the experience will pay off in this race though. This track/distance is probably one of his favourites (3:0-1-1) and his form is one of the strongest in the race. He also only has to carry 55kg with Laqdar’s claim, which makes him competitive. The wide barrier looks to be the only thing that would cause him problems. Trisuem has finished third at every start this preparation and makes it five thirds overall (7:0-0-5). She is sometimes her own worst enemy or just has bad luck, so perhaps will go closer if things go her way. The distance looks to suit (1:0-0-1) as does her barrier. There’s no reason why she can’t win so she rounds out a very even top four.
3 – Springsure Lad
10 – Oceanzara
1 – Shadow Shifter
11 – Trisuem

Race 2 – Crown Perth Plate – 1000m – 12:44pm

Toppa The Mountain got his first win on the board at only his second start (2:1-0-0). He seemed to really appreciate settling in the first two in that race and I suspect he’ll take up a similar position here, maybe just settling behind Heavenly Waters. He must have pulled up well from that win because he is on the one-week backup. It’s a bit of an unknown whether he’ll handle this, so we’ll just have to wait and see. Heavenly Waters got swamped last start to finish fourth by nearly six lengths after leading all the way. She gets the blinkers on here for the first time, so that should help her to settle when leading. Dropping down in distance looks to benefit her too, especially given her first up win which had good form. She drew the same barrier in that win, so look for a repeat performance here. Michelada has been improving with each trial, winning at her latest one. Not really much to complain about as she has a good barrier and Pike and Simon Miller make a great team. Her trial form is a bit unknown but the third behind Fatale Femme two trials ago is good. No reason why she can’t win but she will only improve off this race. Buster’s Force is also having his first start here. Not much to comment on other then he too has won a trial leading into this race by a good margin as well. He’s also got a good barrier and rounds out a race where you can make a case for nearly every horse.
1 – Toppa The Mountain
2 – Heavenly Waters
10 – Michelada
4 – Buster’s Force

Race 3 – Devil’s Lair Plate – 1000m – 1:24pm

Madam Torio is a 1000m specialised, with all of her wins coming over this distance (8:5-1-0). She’s also unbeaten at this track/distance (2:2-0-0). She’s had five weeks off leading into this race, so there is a question mark over why that was the case. However, she does go well fresh. She’s got good form surrounding her races and should find the front easily from barrier six. She’ll be giving them all something to run down. Gemma’s Son drops back to 1000m after racing in the Kingston Town over 1800m. Whether the class or distance got the better of him is yet to be seen, but this looks like a more suitable race in terms of distance and facing horses his own age. His track/distance record is great (3:2-0-1) and he only has to carry 59.5kg with Madi’s claim. He has won with 61.5kg before, so the 59.5kg doesn’t look to be too big of an ask despite it being 7.5kg more than last start. Look for him to bounce back here. Iseered Iseered got scratched from a race on Wednesday to run here instead, so connections obviously have a big opinion of him. He is unbeaten in his career (1:1-0-0), though that race was at Kalgoorlie and on a soft track. However, his latest trial suggests that he’s absolutely ready to win here, winning that trial by 4.8L. Mitchell rode him in that trial so knows the horse and he has a good barrier. He can win here without anyone blinking an eye.  Island Charm does bring weaker form lines to this race, but it’s hard to knock her career statistics (4:1-1-1). She comes into this race without a trial, so it’s a bit hard to tell where she’s at fitness wise. She has, however, placed first up before (1:0-0-1), with that run being at this distance. She does seem to go better on a soft track, but in this even race, she’s great value!
3 – Madam Torio
1 – Gemma’s Son
4 – Iseered Iseered
8 – Island Charm

Race 4 – Tabtouch Westspeed Platinum Handicap – 1100m – 2:04pm

Universal Pleasure got her maiden win on the board last run after seven starts (7:1-3-3), though she had been knocking on the door for a while. She probably had the run of the race, but she did win by a very convincing margin. She’s unbeaten at this distance (1:1-0-0) and has placed at Ascot before (1:0-1-0). She’s third up so will be fit going into this race and only has to carry 52.5kg with Laqdar’s claim (and minimum riding weight), which makes her very competitive. As long as the form surrounding her races doesn’t let her down, she can win this. Tinto Belle had been racing really well prior to last start, where she had a few excuses. Things seemed to have clicked for her, so I hope that run didn’t knock her confidence too much. She returns to Ascot which will benefit, she drops 2kg on last start’s run and she has a good barrier. I loved her turn of foot first up where she finished second behind Leica Jaguar which is good form. If she can bring that here again, she can win. Bedouin Belle is a consistent horse and proven at this track/distance (3:1-0-1). She only got beaten late last start and seems to be appreciating settling in the first few, though she can run on to some extent. She has drawn wide here, so may get further back than she would like, especially if she doesn’t jump well or have to use some energy early on to get her preferred position. In an even race, she’s great value. Sir Mambo comes into this race without a trial, though he has placed first up before (3:0-1-1). I also particularly like his track/distance record (2:1-0-1). Thanks to Madi’s claim, he also only has to carry 59.5kg, which puts him back in the race. Connections would be more confident if he was running on a soft track, but he can run a good race here.
10 – Universal Pleasure
7 – Tinto Belle
2 – Bedouin Belle
1 – Sir Mambo

Race 5 – Iron Jack Handicap – 1600m – 2:43pm

Comfort Me hasn’t been racing as well compared to last preparation, with no excuses in the stewards’ report. He steps up in distance here, to a distance which he is unbeaten over (1:1-0-0). He’s also drawn an inside barrier so shouldn’t get too far back, especially given that there’s not a lot of speed in the race. It’s a bit concerning that he’s yet to win at Ascot (3:0-0-0) but look for him to change that here. Wild Fusion is definitely in better form than Comfort Me, though the form surrounding those races isn’t as strong. He’s yet to place at this track/distance (2:0-0-0) and rises 2kg off last start’s second at Albany. However, he has won with 57.5kg this preparation and has a good barrier. It’s hard to knock his winning form and I suspect it’s going to be a battle between my top two tips. Cousin Ivan is a bit of a cheeky horse that catches punters out. He can run on but looks to have gotten too far back last start, so put a line through that run. He steps up in distance here, having not placed over 1600m (1:0-0-0), but he will only improve as he gets up over 2000m. He also gets Pike on board for the first time, which is always a positive. His statistics aren’t in his favour, but he could surprise once again. Brutus Maximum has been racing quite well this preparation, with four runs for three top three placings (4:1-1-1). These races have been in weaker company, so there is a question mark over whether he can match these horses. However, he drops 2.5kg off last start’s run due to the rise in class, has a good barrier and has placed at this distance before (1:0-1-0). My only concern is that I’m not sure he’s an Ascot horse (5:0-0-1).
2 – Comfort Me
5 – Wild Fusion
1 – Cousin Ivan
8 – Brutus Maximum

Race 6 – Western Racepix Handicap – 1800m – 3:20pm

Our Idyll has been racing really well this preparation, only placing outside of the top three once (which was first up). Her last two starts where she placed second were behind two very good Impressive Racing horses in Solaia and No Surrender, so this looks like good form to follow. She steps up to 1800m for the first time, so there is a slight question mark over that, plus she’s yet to win at Ascot (7:0-3-0). Her barrier and weight aren’t in her favour either. However, the thing I like about her the most, besides her consistency, is her versatility on where she can settle in the race, as she does have a turn of foot but can win when leading too. If she can overcome the factors going against, she can win this. Sowar is another consistent horse, though this preparation he has been racing in slightly weaker company. He’s third up so should be spot on fitness wise, has a good barrier and drops 4kg off last start’s run due to the increase in class. He’s yet to race at 1800m, but it looks right up his alley as he’ll only improve as he steps up in distance even more. My Fair Balentine has won two races leading into this one, though they were in a weaker class. She’s racing at an increased distance here, though she’s never placed at this track/distance before (2:0-0-0), which does make me wonder whether she’s more of a 1600m horse. Interesting to note that she’s got her fifth jockey in as many starts. Overthought comes out of the same race as Our Idyll but only gets 0.5kg on her here. While her results this preparation don’t look impressive, she has never finished more than 2L away from the winner. She’s never placed at this track/distance (1:0-0-0), but that could change here. She rounds out a very even top four!
1 – Our Idyll
4 – Sowar
2 – My Fair Balentine
6 – Overthought

Race 7 – Australia Day Trophy – 1500m – 4:00pm

Son Of A God was three wide no cover last start, so certainly didn’t have an ideal run like Dig Deep. He only finished 0.6L off him too and gets 2kg on him here, plus a much better barrier, so he should get cover this time. He absolutely loves Ascot (4:3-0-1), but I do question whether he’s a better 1200m horse. With a better run this time, he should go much closer. Dig Deep has really bounced back to his old winning ways, with perhaps Pike bringing out the best in him. Conditions do look to be a little bit harder here, as he rises 2kg off last start to carry 60.5kg (though he did win with 60kg two starts ago). He’s also drawn slightly wider than what he’s used to, and I feel if he got too far back that would be enough to undo him with that weight. He steps up in distance but the extra 100m shouldn’t be too much of a problem given how strongly he’s been finishing his race. No reason, other than the weight, why he can’t make it three wins in a row. Lorentinio finished second to Dig Deep last start, with this race looking like the one to follow form wise. He also gets 1.5kg on him here, which given the margin, could be enough to help turn the tables. From barrier two, he should easily find the front and is one of a few horses to have raced and won over this distance before (3:1-0-0). Nothing really to complain about. He’ll be giving them something to run down and can win without surprising. She’s Alight was probably a touch outclassed in the group three last start, but has good listed form prior to that (a win and a second). That group three race was also over 1800m, so dropping back in distance should definitely suit her here. She’ll well weighted given her listed form and does have a turn of foot to help her overcome that wide barrier, though lately she has been doing her best work form the front. She’s a great value tip!
3 – Dig Deep
5 – Son Of A God
6 – Lorentinio
9 – She’s Alight

Race 8 – Morley Growers Market Handicap – 1200m – 4:40pm

Tommy Blue seemed to have a small mishap back in October but recovered nicely with a win last start. Prior to that tenth placing, she had never finished outside of the top four. She doesn’t get any weight penalties for that win due to the rise in class, but she does have an extremely wide barrier to overcome which makes me a little bit nervous. At least she’s placed second up before (1:0-1-0) and won at this track/distance (2:1-1-0). Look for her to make it back-to-back wins. Inflation’s trial leading into this race certainly wasn’t anything flashy, but I think the fact that We’ve Got Dream won by such a considerable margin made the other horses look bad. He finished last preparation off strongly and has placed first up before (4:0-1-1). He’s also placed at this track/distance before (4:0-1-1). He may be another victim to the wide barrier, as he’ll need to use some energy early on to get the lead like he likes. With no one challenging him for this position, they’ll be chasing him in the straight! Alien From Mars is a bit of a hit and miss horse, but did win at Ascot two starts ago. Last start she might have even finished closet had she not gotten blocked in the straight too. The thing I like about her most is her track/distance record (2:1-1-0), which a few tipsters seem to have forgotten about. She has drawn extremely wide as well, so may get back and get into trouble again, but she does have a turn of foot. Great place value! Mickey Blue Eyes is having only his second start here in WA. He looked to have gotten too far back from the wide barrier and with that being his first time at Ascot, it could have gotten the better of him. He’s drawn much better here, so he should be able to settle further forward. Look for him to improve with one WA run under his belt.
2 – Tommy Blue
5 – Inflation
13 – Alien From Mars
9 – Mickey Blue Eyes

Race 9 – Ascend Sales Trophies Handicap – 1000m – 5:20pm

Leica Jaguar has been racing very consistently this preparation and I think that’s what swayed me in his favour. He also drops 4.5kg off last start due to the rise in class, has a good barrier and a fantastic track/distance record (8:3-3-1). He’ll also appreciate the hot speed that We’ve Got Dreams is probably going to set. My only concern is that he is on the one-week backup, but he has won on a quick backup before. Hoping my gut is right in this race. We’ve Got Dreams put in a massive performance in her trial leading into this race, winning by 4.6L. This makes me nervous, especially as she’s won first up before (3:1-0-1) and at this track/distance (4:2-0-0). There is a bit of speed in this race, but given she’s drawn wide, I suspect they’ll have no choice but to go forward. She also only has to carry 57kg which puts her back in the game. Just been burnt in the past with her, but she’s a huge threat to my top tip. Captain Kink comes out of the same trial as We’ve Got Dreams, where he finished second. He finished off last preparation quite strongly and has won first up before (2:1-0-0) and at this track/distance (2:1-0-1). I just question whether he goes slightly better over 1200m. He and We’ve Got Dreams may also burn each other out if they’re fighting for the lead. Otherwise, there’s no reason why he can’t win. Great value chance! Plutocracy has had seven weeks since his first up run, so there is a question mark over why his races have been spaced that much. He ended last preparation strongly and as a great track/distance record (4:1-2-1). Chris does jump off in favour of Leica Jaguar, but don’t take anything away from Pat. This time last year he was recording career best results, so look for him to bounce back to that form here.
11 – Leica Jaguar
1 – We’ve Got Dreams
7 – Captain Kink
6 – Plutocracy

Best Bet

Race 8 – Tommy Blue

Confidence rating

My confidence is not particularly good at all this week. I write little notes on my tips when I’m selecting the numbers. On races 1, 2 and 6 I wrote “even”. 5 and 7 I predict are a battle between my top two tips. 3, 4 and 9 were “avoid” races, though race 9 could be another battle between my top two. I’ve got quite a few favourites on top too, so hopefully I can still record a profit this week.

Last Week’s Results

R1-trifecta
R9-quinella
Winners in top 4- 7/9
Top picks: 1st, -, 1st, 2nd, 1st, -, -, -, 2nd
Best bet: 2nd
Profit: -5.46