Ascot 21/11/2020

Conditions

Rail – 3m
Track – Good 4
Forecast – Max 26 degrees, mostly sunny

Race 1 – Tourism WA Trophy – 1200m – 12:09pm

Long Beach does have a good turn of foot when settling midfield. With this field being so small, even if he was to settle last (which may be the case from that wide barrier) he would be ok. He likes Ascot (5:2-1-1) and has won over this distance before (2:1-0-0). Racing on a good track should also benefit him as he’s only placed outside the top three once on a good track (7:4-1-1) and in that race he probably got a touch too far back and blocked in the straight. Looking for William Pike to kick things off where he left them. Boomtastic comes out of the same race as Long Beach, where she finished fifth to his second, and gets 2.5kg on him as a result. She had a few excuses in that run, so she perhaps could have even finished closer. She’s third up so will be ready to go fitness wise and she has a good track/distance record (3:1-1-0). There doesn’t seem to be a lot of speed in the race, so I suspect that she may settle outside Carocapo. No reason why she should run a bad race. Niccovi seemed to be a bit flat second up (last start) after coming off a third first up. There weren’t any excuses in the stewards’ report, so that run does raise a few concerns. However, she may have needed it fitness wise, as she spent a year off the scene before this preparation. Last preparation she placed in group races in Melbourne, before finishing third in the Placid Ark, so if she can bring that form, she could surprise. Her track/distance record doesn’t fill me with a lot of confidence (3:0-0-1), but hopefully, she can bounce back here. Don’t Fuss comes out of a group 3 and listed race this preparation where he looked to be outclassed. He then went down in class, finishing fourth behind Long Beach.  The small field should also benefit him, and he gets an experienced jockey on board in Brad Rawiller. I just think the 61.5kg is going to get the better of him here, especially given my top tip.
3 – Long Beach
5 – Boomtastic
4 – Niccovi
2 – Don’t Fuss

Race 2 – Mumm Champagne-Crystal Slipper Stakes – 1100m – 12:49pm

Liwa won both of her trials leading into her first up race, but then suffered from heat illness when she finished fifth. It’s not going to be any cooler today, but I’m hoping with one run under her belt, she’ll be that touch fitter and able to handle the heat. Interesting to note that Chris jumps off in favour of Success Play, so whether he thinks he’s chosen the better horse we’ll have to wait and see. With a good barrier, she can get her maiden win here. Galaxy Cat comes out of the same race as Liwa, where she finished fourth. She looked to be the winner after sitting second the whole race, but just got beaten late. The lugging bit goes on for the first time, so I’m wondering whether they’re going to try and get her to settle with cover from that wide barrier. She doesn’t seem to have a turn of foot though, so I hope she would still be in the first few. Form behind Fatale Femme first up is particularly good and if she brings that here she can go close. Flying Missile has had just the one trial in her career (and leading into this race) which she won. She won comfortably by a good margin, so she looks to have ability. Interesting to note that connections put Laqdar on board, even though they can’t make use of his 3kg claim due to the conditions of this race. My only concern is that she has drawn barrier one, so she may get blocked in while the swoopers make their moves out wide. She’ll need a bit of luck but is one to watch going forward. Gorgeous Gossip won all of her trials leading into her first up run, where she faded to sixth after leading all the way. That run was back in October and she’s had another trial leading into this race, which I assume was for fitness purposes (as the stewards didn’t send her back to trials or anything). She won that trial so looks ready to go here. From barrier three, she could easily take up the lead if they wanted to. With so many horses having their first start, it’s hard to know whether she’ll be challenged for that position and whether it will be her undoing if pressure is applied. She is another winnable chance (at great odds too) in a race where anything can happen with so many maidens!
5 – Liwa
3 – Galaxy Cat
11 – Flying Missile
6 – Gorgeous Gossip

Race 3 – TABtouch – Better Your Bet Handicap – 2200m – 1:29pm

Midnight Blue looks to be a horse on the way up. He showed a great turn of foot last start, winning over 1800m. He steps up in distance here, but he does have a good record over 2200m (2:1-1-0). Due to the rise in class, he doesn’t have to carry any more weight than last start. Fitness wise he should be spot on and Pike teams up with him once again. I’m hoping his turn of foot is the winning difference. Come Right Back is a major threat to my top tip. He’s no stranger to this distance and seems to be relishing in it, winning and placing second at his last two starts, which were at this track and distance. I suspect he’ll settle slightly further forward than Midnight Blue, which does mean there’s a smaller chance that he’ll run into trouble. From barrier five, a good position shouldn’t be too hard to achieve either. No reason why he can’t win! It looks to be a battle between my top two tips. Mosseratti has been racing very consistently lately. He’s never actually won at this track/distance, but his record is still pretty good (8:0-3-2). He just seems to always find one or two better in his races, though his second behind Leading Girl four starts is very good form. He looks to find a few better here, but he should be in the finish once again. Great Waters was scratched from a race on Wednesday to race here, so connections must be pretty confident about his chances. Three starts ago he won over 2150m, so despite winning last start over 1800m, the 2200m here should suit him. He’s drawn a good barrier and drops 4kg off last start’s win due to the rise in class. My biggest concern is that the form surrounding his races isn’t the strongest and he probably goes better on a soft track. With the weather we’d have over Thursday and Friday plus what’s forecasted for Saturday, the track should dry out to a good 4 (which it is). He’s won at this track/distance before (2:1-0-0) and he could surprise but the class will probably get the best of him.
4 – Midnight Blue
6 – Come Right Back
11 – Mosseratti
10 – Great Waters

Race 4 – TABtouch-Placid Ark Stakes – 1200m – 2:09pm

Chantorque likes it when the speed is hot (I would have loved to see her verse Clairvoyance) and with Charleton Eddie and Acromantula in the race, she’ll get that speed once again. It wouldn’t be surprising if we see a repeat of last start’s win, where she sat just outside of him and then overpower him in the last 150m. She’s unbeaten at Ascot (3:3-0-0) but does step up to 1200m for the first time. With her ability though I can’t see this being a problem. She’s got a lovely barrier and as long as she doesn’t get too far back or stuck on the rail she should run well. Mystical View steps back in distance and returns to a good track, all of which should help her improve. She has the best form surrounding her races, placing second in the listed Belgravia three starts ago. Despite this, she isn’t penalised in the weights at all. She’s drawn wide so I do think she’ll go back, but with only eight horses in the field, she won’t have too many to run down. With her turn of foot, she’s a winning chance. Acromantula is unbeaten in his three career trials and one race. So even though he jumps dramatically in class, he looks to have the ability to make his mark here. He steps up to 1200m for the first time, so there’s a slight question mark on whether he can lead all that way, especially if a horse like Charleton Eddie is applying pressure. He looked to have over raced when leading, so hopefully, the addition of the bubble cheeker will allow him to settle and then power home late. He’ll be given them all something to run down! Charleton Eddie finished second to Chantorque but doesn’t actually get any weight relief on her, due to the conditions of this race, despite that result. He’s one of the few horses that is proven over this distance. He’s actually unbeaten at this track/distance (1:1-0-0) and third up (1:1-0-0). Considering that he’ll want to lead, barrier two is perfect, as long as he jumps well. Seeing as Acromantula will want to lead too, it won’t be good for either of them if they both challenge and burn out early. For this reason, Charleton Eddie might just sit behind him, seeing as this horse has won from settling second before. He rounds out a very even race!
4 – Chantorque
5 – Mystical View
2 – Acromantula
1 – Charleton Eddie

Race 5 – Peoplestart Handicap – 1400m – 2:44pm

Tiff Has Spoken looks to be a winning chance should Western Empire get a start in the Guineas. He showed a good turn of foot first up where he finished third. He went into that race without a trial, so he should only improve second up, which his second up record confirms (2:1-0-0). He’s yet to win over this distance (3:0-1-2), but that could potentially change here. Certainly, don’t rule him out! Sweet Dreamin’ put together a good string of racing back in November to March, even if they were lower class races. He looks to have come back just as good this preparation, recording a third and second, so I’m surprised to see him open up at $12/$3.25. His track record isn’t the best (8:1-1-1), but he does go well over this distance (5:1-1-1). The form surrounding his races is good, but I think he arguably goes better over 1200m than the 1400m. He could surprise. Ocean’s Fifteen finally gets a slightly better barrier which hopefully means he won’t get as far back this time, as I don’t think that helped his chances last start. He’s never actually placed at this track/distance (3:0-0-0), which is surprising, but does raise the question whether he too is better over 1200m. He never really runs a bad race and at least he has a fair excuse when he does. He drops 2kg off last start’s run due to the rise in class, but I think in doing so he may have found one or two better. Sophie’s Song put in a good performance last start, just been over powered by Tollman after she lead all the way. She does drop in class here so does have to carry 5.5kg more than last start and prior to last start her results weren’t the best. The biggest things in her favour here are her track/distance record (9:2-4-2) and the good barrier. This time last year she was on fire at Ascot so hopefully she can bounce back to that form here.
8 – Tiff Has Spoken
5 – Sweet Dreamin’
7 – Ocean’s Fiften
2 – Sophie’s Song

Race 6 – Sky Racing-W.A. Guineas – 1600m – 3:20pm

Western Empire was thought to be good enough by connections to be in the group 3 WA Guineas, but unfortunately won’t make the field unless there’s a scratching (which there has been, with Bob Peters scratching is other horse so this one could get a start). He narrowly finished second in the listed Fairetha last start, finishing home strongly behind Kallaroo. His only other start is when he finished third at Northam first up, where he got blocked in the straight and probably a bit too far back, so few excuses there. 1600m should give him more time to run them down, plus he teams up with Pike for the first time. The lack of race day experience and extremely wide barrier looks to be his only downfalls. Kallaroo won the listed Fairetha for the colts/geldings leading into this race. He ran the second fast 600m time behind Dom To Shoot in that race too. I tossed up for ages between these two. Kallaroo has drawn a terrible barrier, which may result in him getting a bit further back than he would like, but it should enable him to settle off the fence and not get boxed in like last start. He also has to give Dom To Shoot 1kg, who should get a better run this start. My biggest deciding factor is that I think Kallaroo is going to find the mile distance is right up his alley. The barrier and bad luck in the run look to be his worst enemy. I haven’t tipped a horse at this kind of value for ages! Dom To Shoot is a classy horse, there’s no doubt about that! He raced wide throughout last start, so probably ended up running 1600m, where he finished seventh. As I said earlier, he did run the fastest last 600m in that race. It’s this turn of foot that will be his biggest advantage. So, even though he’s drawn wide in barrier nine, he should be able to run on as long as he can get out. The step up in distance is the only concern. He’s a much safer bet and winning chance. Watch Me Dance is statistically one of the best horses in this race. She’s unbeaten at this track/distance (1:1-0-0) and has never placed outside the top three on a good track (7:3-2-2). That win over this distance came last start. The conditions in that race were terrible (heavy 8) and I do worry that the conditions plus the one-week backup up may just be a bit too much for her. The form surrounding her races is some of the best, with her actually beating Dom To Shoot on a few occasions. As long as last start didn’t take too much out of her, she can easily win this.
17 – Western Empire
2 – Kallaroo
2 – Dom To Shoot
11 – Watch Me Dance

Race 7 – Crown Perth-Jungle Mist Classic – 1200m – 4:00pm

Ration Aly has only tasted defeat once and that was at her first career start where she finished fourth (5:4-0-0). I really like that she can run on from the back or sit in the first few and this versatility looks to be an advantage, even though she’s drawn nicely in barrier six. She’s had a quiet trialling leading into this race and would have had a perfect first up and distance record if it wasn’t for her maiden run. She does have to give Tycoon Storm 1kg since they last met (Tycoon Storm finished third to her win) but I don’t think this is enough to turn the tables. She’s never been to Ascot before, but she should run a good race and is great value at $8. Tycoon Storm is a major threat to my top tip. She’s won two in a row leading into this race, though last start’s win was back in early October (opening day at Ascot), so there is a question mark over whether she’s been suffering from a few issues. She’s unbeaten at Ascot (1:1-0-0) but has never placed over 1200m (1:0-0-0). She definitely seems to go better over 1400-1500m, so look out for her as she steps up in distance. This distance record was the deciding factor between my top two tips, though this horse does have better form surrounding her races. She drops 5kg off last start’s win due to the rise in class and she has a good barrier. No reason why she can’t win. Flower of War drops down from a group 3 into listed company again, though I say this race looks easier on paper than her previous listed races this preparation. Despite her results, she’s actually not penalised too heavily in the weights. She has drawn wide again, so may have to use a bit of energy early on the get there forward position that she likes. This track/distance is probably one of her favourites (5:4-1-0), with the good track being in her favour too. The form surrounding her races is probably the best in the race, in particular in the likes of beating Valour Road and Angelic Ruler in listed races. Look for her to bounce back to her autumn form. Miss Frost is a very consistent horse rarely placing outside of the top three (12:3-2-4). Her trials runs this preparation have been good (two thirds) and I think she’s ready to take the step up to 1200m. She’s never won at this track/distance (2:0-0-1) and has drawn awkwardly in barrier eleven, though she can run on to some extent. She’s a great place value bet.
9 – Ration Aly
8 – Tycoon Storm
1 – Flower of War
11 – Miss Frost

Race 8 – Kirin-Railway Stakes – 1600m – 4:40pm

Inspirational Girl is facing her biggest and toughest race to date here and Pike will need to ride her to perfection if she’s going to win. However, she does have a tonne of ability. She’s yet to place outside of the top three in her career (10:8-1-1) and is unbeaten at this track/distance (2:2-0-0). Her best runs come on a good track (8:7-1-0) and it’s where her turn of foot is most effective. Interesting to note is that she beat Too Close The Sun, a horse other people have a high opinion of, in the group three Asian Beau and only gives him 0.5kg here as a result, certainly not enough to help turn the tables. The wide barrier is potentially going to be her undoing, but I’m hoping her turn of foot helps her overcome that. The Peters/Pike/Williams combination always deserves respect in big feature races and I’m not surprised to see her as favourite. Kay Cee didn’t handle the fast pace of the race first up and probably got a bit too far back. However, she bounced back lovely second up, winning a key lead up race in the group two Lee Steere Stakes. This time last year she won the Kingston Town, so she’s no stranger to the pressure of group one races. Steve Parnham did guide her in all of those races, but due to his injury on Wednesday, Jason Brown takes the ride. From that wide barrier, I hope he settles her about mid-field, as that’s where she seems to do her best work from. She’s yet to win at this track/distance (2:0-1-1), but this can change here. Truly Great is at pretty good odds for a cerise and white horse who is still in with a chance. He’s in career best form leading into this race, winning all three races this preparation. These races have ranged in distance from 1500m to 1800m, so the 1600m should be spot on. He’s actually unbeaten over this track/distance (1:1-0-0). He doesn’t quite have that turn of foot like stablemate Inspirational Girl and from that extremely wide barrier, this could cause a few problems. Interestingly, Chris also jumps off in favour of Kementari. Another red flag for me is that he did race last Saturday in those terrible conditions. Considering the work he’ll have to do from that barrier, it may all just be a bit much. He’s one to watch in the Kingston Town. Too Close The Sun drops down to a distance he’s never raced at before, only racing below 1800m four times in his career. Even though he placed second over 1400m first up, I would say he goes better over further. Connections would have also been a lot more confident had we been racing on a soft or heavy track. He’s another horse that raced (and won) last Saturday. He too has drawn wide, but unlike Truly Great, this horse will be looking to settle in the first few, if not lead, so he is going to have use some energy early on to get that position. There’s no question over his ability and I think he can win this if he gives them all something to run down. Just hope the conditions don’t take their toll.
11 – Inspirational Girl
4 – Kay Cee
15 – Truly Great
14 – Too Close The Sun

Race 9 – Carbine Club Of W.A. Stakes – 1400m – 5:20pm

Festival Miss seemed to have quite a bit go wrong for her first up, so I’m willing to forgive that run. She gets a much better barrier here and a senior jockey in Pike. She drops 2kg off last start’s run due to the rise in class, though she placed third in a listed race in the autumn, so she isn’t completely out of her depth here. She’s yet to win second up (3:0-1-1), though does like this track/distance (7:1-2-3). She did run second to Laverrod in May and though doesn’t get any weight relief despite that result. Her turn of foot will be her greatest weapon and I hope that will see her winning. Serenity Bay has never finished outside the top three in her career (12:5-3-4), which made it very tempting to put her on top, especially given that she opened up at $11/$3.50. She had a quiet trial leading into this race, finishing a length behind Flirtini. This trial and her first up record (3:2-1-0) all suggests that she goes well fresh. The two little things that turned me away slightly was the wide barrier and that I don’t think the form surrounding her races is as good as my top tip. I can’t see why she won’t be in the finish once again. Laverrod is the favourite in this race and I’m a little bit surprised about that. He was disappointing last start where he over raced, so I suspect that they’ve taken the winkers off in the hope that he does settle. I thought maybe he was more a 1000-1200m horse, but he has won at this track/distance before (3:1-0-1). He did beat Celebrity Queen two starts ago, which looks to be very good form after her win last week. Connections want to take him to the Winterbottom next week, but he’ll have to prove he’s worthy here. Look for him to bounce back to last preparation’s form. Point Taken is coming off a win at this track and distance, where she showed a great turn of foot. She’s only placed outside the top three once this preparation and has form behind Ration Aly and beat Tiff Has Spoken last start, who looks to be winning if Western Empire gets scratched. She may get a bit far back from that barrier, but her turn of foot can get her out of trouble. She likes this track/distance (3:1-1-0) and won’t know herself with just 53kg on her back due to her stepping up to listed class for the first time. At $31/$6.50, I think she’s incredible value!
12 – Festival Miss
13 – Serenity Bay
9 – Laverrod
14 – Point Taken

Best Bet

Race 1 – Long Beach

Confidence rating

My confidence is never high around carnival time and having lots of favourites on top doesn’t help. I’m most confident about races 1 and 5, while I think race 3 will be a battle between my top two tips. Do note that if Western Empire gets a start in the WA Guineas (which he has), he will go on top in that race. I was very tempted to stick with Kallaroo though (who was my original top tip in the Guineas) given that he is a $17 chance. I seem to be hitting a sweet spot *touch wood* after recording a profit last Saturday and on Wednesday, so I’m hoping that continues here!

Last Week’s Results

Saturday 14/11/2020
R8- boxed trifecta
Winners in top 4 – 8/9
Top picks: -, -, -, 1st, 1st, 1st, -, 1st, 3rd
Best bet: –
Profit: 4.7
Wednesday 18/11/2020
R1-quinella
R3-exacta
R8-boxed trifecta
Winners in top 4 – 6/8
Top picks: 2nd, 3rd, 1st, 3rd, 1st, -, 1st, 3rd
Best bet: 1st
Profit: 7.2