Horse Racing,  Tipping

Ascot 21/03/2020

Conditions

Rail – True
Track – Good 4
Forecast – Max 31, partly cloudy, slight chance of a shower in the afternoon/evening

Race 1 – Harmony Week Handicap – 1800m – 12:50pm

Media Baron is on the one-week backup after winning that race and is going from strength to strength. What I love most about him is his turn of foot plus stepping up in distance shouldn’t be a problem at all. The only concern would be the step up in class, but every good horse must make their way through the grades. Push To Pass beat Media Baron in the Esperance Cup, which is good form considering that Media Baron won at his next start. His previous start before that in Geraldton was also good (he won) but the two starts before that at Ascot weren’t very good (2200m may have been too far). Juicing Carrots was very disappointing last start, with nothing written up in the stewards report. Form before that was ok, but if he was going to improve, now’s the chance with that barrier and weight. Touch of Silver has been a bit disappointing this preparation. However, the step up in distance should benefit, plus he has a good track/distance record (6:3-0-1).
3 – Media Baron
6 – Push To Pass
4 – Juicing Carrots
1 – Touch of Silver

Race 2 – TabTouch Westspeed Platinum Maiden – 1200m – 1:34pm

Luke’s Choice hadn’t been seen since July last year before stepping out in a class 1 race at Pinjarra, which he won. He brings good form from those July races and seeing as he went into last start with no trial, he should only improve off that. Gates of Babylon had a trial just to maintain that fitness. He gets in nicely with the weights due to Chris’ claim and I think dripping back to 1200m should also benefit. He also gets 4kg on Playing Marika, where he finished fourth to her last time they met. Playing Marika has been racing well, winning three starts ago, beating Gates of Babylon (fourth) and Firesale (twelfth) in the process. She does have to carry 60kg combined with a wide barrier, which makes me slightly nervous as she isn’t known for running on. Wakan Tanka is a pretty consistent horse, finishing third or fourth at his previous five starts. There’s nothing really to complain about and I expect him to be in the finish once again.
3 – Luke’s Choice
2 – Gates of Babylon
1 – Playing Marika
9 – Wakan Tanka

Race 3 – Vale George Daly Handicap – 1200m – 2:13pm

Laverrod is a horse going places, with a Melbourne trip on the cards. He won last start and is yet to place outside of the top three (6:2-2-2). He is yet to win second up (2:0-1-1) but can definitely change that today despite the 61kg. Cliffs of Comfort was a winner at his first ever start, leading all the way, after coming off some nice trials. Obviously has his share of ability and looks to be the leader here again. He’s drawn outside Laverrod, so that may give Laverrod a nice horse to follow into the race. Special Choice didn’t do so well last start but did do well the start before that. She’s third up here, so fitness will definitely be a positive plus Pike is back. She also brings great form from the group 3 Champion Fillies and group 2 WA Guineas in the spring. Beethoven had nearly a year off the scene before finishing sixth at his first run back. His second up record is great (2:1-1-0) so look for him to improve here, though the 60.5kg and wide barrier may make that hard.
1 – Laverrod
6 – Cliffs of Comfort
3 – Special Choice
2 – Beethoven

Race 4 – D’Orsogna Handicap – 1100m – 2:50pm

Celebrity Queen probably should have won last start, after getting stuck in the straight. She actually ran the fastest 600m despite finishing sixth. Her turn of foot in the race before that was also amazing (where she won). As long as Pike keeps her out of trouble she should go well. Sweet Dreamin’ has been racing very consistently and I was very tempted to put him on top. However, most of his form is from the country and Pike jumps off him in favour of Celebrity Queen. Absolutely no reason why he can’t win. Bedouin Belle was a winner last start and is improving with each run. Nothing really that I can fault about her. De Andes is racing at his favourite distance here. Besides the one start at 1200m (other four starts have been at 1100m), he’s in career best form. Great value if that’s what you like too.
8 – Celebrity Queen
2 – Sweet Dreamin’
7 – Bedouin Belle
4 – De Andes

Race 5 – Amelia Park – Perth Stakes – 1100m – 3:25pm

Gemma’s Son is a freak of a horse, never losing in three starts. He has had over a month of racing, but trainer David Harrison said he’s as good as he can get him. With inside barrier and small field, he should be able to find the front easily too. Brooklyn Pier also has ability, being one for one. His trials have also been great, winning one leading into this race. If he can apply pressure to Gemma’s Son, he could possibly beat him, but the lack of experience may show. Charleton Eddie trialled twice last preparation, finishing second in both, but then didn’t make it to the races. He’s having his first start here after winning a 400m trial. No Surrender is in the same boat as Charleton Eddie but only had the one trial last preparation finishing fifth. They would both have to be great horses to beat Gemma’s Son (or for him to have no luck).
1 – Gemma’s Son
2 – Brooklyn Pier
5 – Charleton Eddie
6 – No Surrender

Race 6 – Furphy – Gimcrack Stakes – 1100m – 4:00pm

Watch Me Dance doesn’t bring the same form as some of these other horses but has an incredible turn of foot. This will be of benefit if she gets too far back from that wide barrier. She has had a month off racing, which is a slight concern. American Choice has never finished outside the top three (5:1-2-2). She has great form surrounding her races and gets Pike on board. She also gets a 1kg on Starfield Impact for finishing half a length behind her last start. Starfield Impact won last start so brings that confidence into this race. She also won a key race in the spring. Both she and American Choice are yet to win second up, but both can definitely change that here. Solaia won a trial and then won her first race. Forming surrounding that race is a bit hard to gauge plus Pike jumps off. However, if you’re looking for a good chance at good odds, this is your girl.
3 – Watch Me Dance
2 – American Choice
1 – Starfield Impact
9 – Solaia

Race 7 – Seacorp – Grandstand Cup – 1500m – 4:35pm

Western Temple was racing really well in the spring and he looks to have come back just as good, improving with each trial. Harry Thomas finally got the win last start after being ever so consistent. There looks to be lots of speed in the race and he should be able to get into the first few from that barrier. Platoon came third in the Railway Stakes, overcoming the wide barrier. He then ran a good race first up, coming third. With his good second up record (5:1-2-1), he should go well. Tellem We’re Comin was racing so well before the Railway Stakes last preparation but was then disappointing in that race. We know he has ability, but he’s yet to show that this preparation with nothing written up in the stewards report. He would only have to bring his best to win here but the question is whether he’ll bring that.
8 – Western Temple
6 – Harry Thomas
3 – Platoon
1 – Tellem We’re Comin

Race 8 – Schweppes Handicap – 1400m – 5:10pm

Fred Dag put in a massive run last start, finishing second to Red Can Man. He gets 1.5kg on him here as well as a better barrier. He’s yet to win at this track but can change that here. Red Can Man is a horse to be reckoned with. He has a great second up record (2:1-0-1) and won a listed race last preparation. He can 110% win here but will have to overcome that wide barrier. Regal Counsel probably wouldn’t be this far down my tips if he was in a different race. He won first up with no trial, though his second up record isn’t as good (3:0-0-1).  Patristic is great value at $16 if you ask me! He’s yet to finish outside the top three in his pasted five starts. He gets down to 52kg with Kristy’s claim and a good barrier. If they’re winning from the front (as he’ll be leading) then watch out. This is the race I’m most looking forward to, outside of the two feature races.
5 – Fred Dag
6 – Red Can Man
3 – Regal Counsel
8 – Patristic

Race 9 – Crown Perth Handicap – 2200m – 5:50pm

Paddy’s Shadow won last start after coming from midfield. This race doesn’t look to be any harder and she’s known for liking the longer distances. Black Shadow finished third to Paddy’s Shadow last start. He gets 2kg on her here and shouldn’t get too far back from that barrier. Honestly, I think it would be funny if the two shadows run the quinella too. Adornment really hasn’t shown anything this preparation. However, she keeps giving us glimpses of ability. With Pike on board again and a good barrier, I’m willing to give her one more chance.  Hyperspace is known for getting too far back in his runs. It’s probably going to happen again here from that barrier but hopefully, the extra distance will give him more time to catch up.
1 – Paddy’s Shadow
7 – Black Shadow
4 – Adornment
11 – Hyperspace


Best Bet

Race 6 – Watch Me Dance

Confidence rating

Today is a great day of racing and it’s a shame that the public can’t attend. Confidence rating is pretty good, though I normally don’t do well when I’m confident. I would highly recommend not betting in races 6, 8 and 9, but in saying that I have made race 6 my best bet of the day. That’s because Laverrod and Gemma’s Son are simply too short for me, though I’d be surprised if they don’t win.


If you missed out on my post “How to Read the Form Guide” then be sure to check that out too!

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