Horse Racing,  Tipping

Ascot 20/11/2021

Conditions

Rail – 3m
Track – Good 4
Forecast – Max 28 degrees, sunny

Race 1 – Tourism WA Trophy – 2200m – 12:04pm

1 – Pure Devotion
3 – Reliable Star
2 – Black Shadow
5 – Final Chill

Comment: Pure Devotion won in a nice fashion in the apprentice cup. She has a good track/distance record (2:1-1-0) and Pile jumps back on board. What is a concern is 60kg over this distance. She has the class to win though. Reliable Star finished second to Pure Devotion last start. She gets 5kg on her here, as Holly’s claim means that she only has to carry 52.5kg, which makes her very competitive. This weight swing could be enough to help turn the tables, especially as she’s placed at this track/distance (2:0-1-1). Black Shadow has been really luckless at his past two starts, getting way too far back than he would have liked. With a better barrier and a smaller field, he should be able to get into a much better position. Look for him to improve here. Final Chill has missed the jump at his past two starts, so that would explain the slightly disappointing results. He is proven at this track/distance (7:2-0-1), but with two very classy horses in this field, if he misses the jump again, it’s going to make things difficult for him.

Suggested bet: Pure Devotion and Reliable Star – each way

Race 2 – Magic Millions-Crystal Slipper Stakes – 1100m – 12:44pm

6 – Revitup
1 – Bleecker Street
4 – Left The Building
2 – Man Crush

Comment: Revitup led all of the way to win at her first start. Given the number of trials she had leading into that run, she should be nearly peaking fitness wise. It’s hard to fault her. Bleeker Street let his inexperience get the better of him first up, racing fresh. Conditions look to suit him and he should improve with one run under his belt. Left The Building has only had the one trial, which he won. He won in a nice fashion but otherwise, it’s hard to tell where he’s at. I suspect his trial form will hold up here though. Man Crush looked to let inexpensive get the better of him at his first start. He’s shown ability in his trials and in a smaller field, he shouldn’t get as far back. He can surprise.

Suggested bet: Revitup, Bleecker Street and Left The Building – each way

Race 3 – Amelia Park Handicap – 1800m – 1:24pm

6 – Jarman
1 – Brave Angel
4 – Conquered Zone
10 – My Squeeze Louise

Comment: Jarman has really improved since stepping up to 1600-1800m. Thanks to last start, he’s placed at this track/distance (1:0-1-0) and he may have won had he behaved in the barriers. He’s up in class, but I think he’s at good odds. Brave Angel is down in class, so she does rise 3.5kg off last start’s third. She looks to be ready for 1800m and her unbeaten track/distance record confirms this (1:1-0-0). She’s probably a safer bet than my top tip. Conquered Zone seems to be continuing his good form that he ended last preparation on. He’s yet to place at this track/distance (1:0-0-0), but his record over 1700m suggests that he should handle it. He also only has to carry 55kg due to Keshaw’s claim. He’s another horse at good odds. My Squeeze Louise has improved since racing in WA. She steps up in distance here, but thanks to last start, she’s unbeaten at Ascot (1:1-0-0). Pike jumps off in favour of Expressionist, but this horse isn’t without her chances in this open race.

Suggested bet: Jarman, Brave Angel, Conquered Zone and My Squeeze Lousie – each way

Race 4 – TABtouch Better Your Bet Handicap – 1600m – 2:04pm

5 – Big Screen
2 – Ginger Flyer
3 – Proconsent
11 – Eurasia

Comment: Big Screen has only finished outside the top two once this preparation and that was at his first start. He is up in class here and race looks to be stronger on paper, but he does have a good track/distance record (4:1-1-0). From barrier one, he’ll ping to the front and give them something to run down. Ginger Flyer has also been super consistent and yet to finish outside of the top 2 this preparation. She’s proven at this track/distance (3:1-1-1) and only has to carry 57kg due to Holly’s claim. What goes concern me is how much energy she’ll have to use early on to get a forward position from barrier 13 and what will happen if she gets stuck back. Otherwise, she looks to be well suited here. Proconsent powered home strongly to finish second last start. He’s down in class, so he does rise 4kg off last start and 60kg always raises a few questions. He’s also up in distance but his runs suggest that he could be looking for that extra distance. I’m surprised to see him that short but he’s not without his chances. Eurasia had been a bit disappointing this preparation, with not a whole lot of excuses in the stewards’ report. He steps up in distance, which certainly looks to benefit given his track/distance record (5:0-1-4). He could surprise at good odds.

Suggested bet: Big Screen, Ginger Flyer, Proconsent and Eurasia – each way

Race 5 – TABtouch-Placid Ark Stakes – 1200m – 2:44pm

6 – Flying Missile
11 – Sparkling Blue
9 – Ponyo
10 – Real Danger

Comment: Flying Missile has some of the best form and results in this race, finishing third to Buzzoom last start, which looks like good form to follow. I’d be more confident if she was racing over 1000-1100m, but she has placed at this track/distance before (2:0-0-1). Hopefully, her form holds up here. Sparkling Blue is unbeaten in her career (2:2-0-0). She’s yet to officially race over 1200m, but she has raced over 1100m and 1300m, so she should handle conditions here. She’s up in class and I do worry about where she’ll settle from barrier 10, but she should run a good race. Ponyo always runs a good race but can’t quite get the chocolates. She drops 3kg on last start’s run and she has placed at this track/distance (1:0-1-0). There’s no reason for her to run a bad race here. Real Danger surprisingly didn’t have any excuses for her disappointing run last start. She drops back in distance here which looks to suit, and Pike jumps back on board. She’s one of the few Peters’ horses that likes to settle in the first few, so she’ll need to use some energy early on from barrier 11. $6 for a Pike/Peters/Williams combination in a feature race seems like good value to me though!

Suggested bet: Flying Missile, Sparkling Blue, Ponyo and Real Danger – each way

Race 6 – Carbine Club Of W.A. Stakes – 1400m – 3:25pm

9 – The Spruiker
10 – Hot Zed
11 – Son Of A God
3 – Watch Me Dance

Comment: The Spruiker was unbeaten last preparation. His trials leading into this race certainly haven’t been as impressive, so that does make me nervous. He loves this distance though (6:4-1-1), has placed at this track/distance (1:0-1-0) and has won first up (3:1-0-1). Hopefully, he’ll improve off his trials here, but he will improve next start. Hot Zed did well to finish as close as he did last start, considering he raced wide throughout. He drops 5kg off last start and he’s placed at this track/distance (1:0-0-1). Look for him to bounce back here. Son Of A God showed us a glimpse of his former self last start, finishing third to Wildchino. Settling further forward looked to have suited him and hopefully, he’ll get a similar position from barrier 2. Conditions look to suit, and he can win without surprising. Watch Me Dance does seem to have struggled this preparation. Dropping down in class should help her chances here and she’s proven at this track/distance (5:1-1-1). I just hope that for her connection’s sake, she hasn’t lost her love of racing.

Suggested bet: The Spruiker, Hot Zed and Son Of A God – each way

Race 7 – Sky Racing-W.A. Guineas – 1600m – 4:05pm

13 – Treasured Star
2 – It’sarayday
10 – Buzzoom
12 – Champagne Dame

Comment: Treasured Star was completely luckless in the Burgess Queen, so just put a line through that run. Her runs have been spaced nicely and she goes well fresh. Look for her to bounce back here. It’sarayday won one of the key lead up races in the Fairetha. He’s got great career statistics (4:3-1-0) and from barrier 1 he should get an ideal run. There’s a question mark over whether he’ll handle the step up in distance and whether the girls are better than the boys, but this horse has class. Buzzoom finished second in the Champion Fillies, so she has placed at this track/distance (1:0-1-0). Two starts ago we saw an amazing turn of foot, so I’m not too concerned about barrier 11. She’s yet to finish outside of the top 3 in her career (10:4-5-1), but will the fillies be at a disadvantage being on the one-week backup? I guess we’ll find out here. Champagne Dame has gone from strength to strength in her first preparation, going from a maiden to group 3 placed.  Her one bad run can be put down to a hoof abscess, so she had excuses there. Thanks to her third in the Champion Fillies, she’s placed at this track/distance (1:0-0-1). With not a lot of speed in the race, she’ll easily find the front and give them something to run down. 

Suggested bet: Treasured Star, It’sarayday, Buzzoom and Champagne Dame – each way

Race 8 – Heineken 3-Railway Stakes – 1600m – 4:45pm

16 – Western Empire
10 – Kissonallforcheeks
2 – Massimo
1 – Valour Road

Comment: Western Empire really looks like the horse to beat here. He’s only second up here (1:0-1-0), but he did win first up and by a decent margin too. He’s won at this track/distance (2:1-0-0), though to be honest, he’ll only get better over further. No horse has ever won from barrier 3, but I think that can change here. Kissonallforcheeks had to win the R.J. Peters last week to get a start in this race. I’m surprised that she’s never placed at this track/distance (1:0-0-0), but given how she races over 1500m, I wouldn’t think the extra 100m would be a problem. Hopefully, from barrier 1 she doesn’t get stuck on the rail and hopefully, she handles the one-week backup. She has ability though. Massimo was a little bit of a surprise, winning the group 2 Lee Steere. He doesn’t have to give the other horses much weight if any, so that’s a positive for him. He’s a better horse this preparation with the Gangemi’s and with not a lot of speed in the race, he’ll be giving them something to run down. Valour Road seems to have bounced back to his former self this preparation. He won a group 3 over this distance last preparation but hasn’t raced over 1600m at Ascot. The killer for him is barrier 17 of 17 (potential to be 16 of 16 with emergencies scratched tomorrow) and where he’ll settle from there. Anything can happen in a race of this class though.

Suggested bet: Western Empire, Kissonallforcheeks, Massimo and Valour Road – each way

Extra note: I thought I’d include my thoughts on how I think The Velvet King is going to go. He didn’t miss out on my top 4 by far. Kyra takes the ride for the first time with Mitchell suspended and Chris choosing to take the ride on Kissonallforcheeks. Kyra is in fine form at the moment though, winning the Champion Fillies last week. I’m surprised that he’s never placed at this track/distance (2:0-0-0) but his runs at this track/distance have either been a group 1 or 2. My biggest concern has to be whether he jumps or not. If he doesn’t, it’s basically game over. If he does, he could run a cheeky race. Western Empire looks incredibly hard to beat though and I think The Velvet King’s odds ($21/1) are a good reflection of his chances if he doesn’t jump. You have to be in it to win it though and I’m crossing everything that we can cause an upset.

Race 9 – Crown Perth-Jungle Mist Classic – 1200m – 5:20pm

9 – Bright Diamond
3 – Solaia
11 – Angelic Miss
12 – Universal Pleasure

Comment: Bright Diamond showed a good turn of foot last start. She’s up in class here, so she isn’t penalised in the weights for that win. Thanks to last start, she’s unbeaten at this track/distance (1:1-0-0) and she’s yet to finish outside of the top 3 in her career (9:4-3-2). She has the ability to win this. Solaia seemed to have had something go wrong in the winter, but she looks ready to bounce back to amazing December-March form, after winning a trial leading into this race. She’s won first up before (3:1-0-1) and at this track/distance (2:1-0-0). From barrier 10, she should be able to settle in a forward position too. She’s one to watch. Angelic Miss definitely deserves a crack at this race. She didn’t finish that far off Bright Diamond last start and she gets a much better barrier here. Her track/distance record is a huge tick (7:3-2-1) and combined with her turn of foot, she can easily win this. Universal Pleasure was disappointing last start, with nothing drastic written in the stewards’ report. She’s won at this track/distance (3:1-1-0) and will have fitness on her side being third up. Look for her to bounce back here.

Suggested bet: Bright Diamond, Solaia, Angelic Miss and Universal Pleasure – each way

Race 10 – Drummond Golf Handicap – 1200m – 5:57pm

11 – God Has Chosen
8 – Timely Outburst
14 – Vadette De Star
10 – Billy Ray

Comment: God Has Chosen is yet to finish outside of the top 3 in his career (5:3-2-0). He drops back in distance here off last start’s run, but everything suggests that he should handle it. Conditions look to suit and I’m hoping “Pike in the last” is true once again. Timely Outburst got way too far back last start and had a tonne of excuses in the stewards’ report, so just put a line through that run. She’s unbeaten second up (1:1-0-0) and has won at this distance (2:1-1-0), though she hasn’t raced over 1200m at Ascot. Look for her to bounce back here. Vadette De Star has been getting back in her runs and then running into trouble. She’s up in distance here, so if she does get back, she should have more time to catch them. The biggest red flag is barrier 16. She has ability though. Billy Ray was another horse that had a disappointing run last start, though he didn’t have any solid excuses in stewards’ report other than missing the jump. He’s up in distance here though, to one that he’s unbeaten over at Ascot (1:1-0-0). His form last preparation was really good too, so he could surprise here at amazing odds for a cerise and white horse.

Suggested bet: God Has Chosen, Timely Outburst and Vadette De Star – each way


Best Bet

Race 10 – God Has Chosen

Quaddie

R7: 2, 4, 7, 10, 12, 13
R8: 1, 2, 9, 12, 16
R9: 3, 9, 11, 12
R10: 8, 10, 11, 14

Confidence rating

My confidence is a little on the lower side and tipping value probably isn’t helping with that. Races 3 and 6 are the two I’m most concerned about and my second tips are probably a much safer bet. Races 4, 7, 8 and 9 are pretty even too. Feature races always make it a difficult tipping day but a great day of racing!

Last Week’s Results

R2:exacta
R4:quinella
R5:boxed first 4
R7:quinella
R9:exacta
Winners in top 4: 9/9
Top picks: -, 1st, -, 3rd, -, -, 2nd, -, 1st
Best bet: –
Quaddie: Yes
Profit: -1.2 ($1ew on top tips & $2ew on bb)

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