Ascot 20/02/2021

Conditions

Rail – 5m
Track – Good 4
Forecast – Max 31 degrees, sunny

Race 1 – Autumn Ascot Racing Carnival Is Coming Maiden – 1400m – 12:23pm

Petite La Femme has recorded two thirds at her past two starts, which is some of her best career form (12:0-3-3). She steps up in distance for the first time, which looks to benefit given how she races better over 1200m than 1000m. She only has to carry 53kg due to Madi’s claim. Her form could be stronger, and she may get back from barrier seven, which could cause a few problems as she doesn’t have the greatest turn of foot. Look for her to get her maiden win. Tallinn does seem to run into a bit of bad luck and get a touch too far back. He’s drawn barrier two here, so should be able to settle in a nice position. He’s never placed over 1400m but has at Ascot (4:0-1-1). He actually beat Petite La Femme two starts ago, finishing second to her third. He should get a better run than her this time in, which does make him a threat. Drama Free placed himself at a disadvantage last start after laying out in the straight. He’s got a gear change here with the blinkers coming off and visors going on, so hopefully, that will fix the problem. He didn’t finish too far off the winner after leading all the way, and from barrier eleven, I suspect he’ll take up the lead once again, even if he has to use a bit of energy early on. He’s placed at this track/distance before (1:0-0-1), so no reason for him to run a bad race. Ilhabela has been improving with each trial, finishing second at her last two. With five trials leading into this race, she should have some fitness on her side. The wide barrier may just get the better of her. Look for her to improve off this run.
11 – Petite La Femme
2 – Tallinn
1 – Drama Free
13 – Ilhabela

Race 2 – Kirin Megumi Handicap – 1000m – 12:58pm

Charleton Eddie got scratched from a race last weekend due to a stable mishap, so there’s a question mark over exactly what that was. He won a trial by an impressive 7.6L leading into this race and has placed first up before (2:0-0-1) and won at this track/distance (3:1-1-0). There is slightly less speed in this race compared to last week, so he should find the front easily from barrier one. Plus, he only has to carry 58.5kg with Laqdar’s claim, which certainly puts him back in the race. He’ll be looking to kick this preparation off with a bang. Island Charm was just no match for Gemma’s Son last start, though managed to finish second in the 3-year-old Magic Millions. She’s a very consistent filly, only placing outside of the top three once in her career (6:2-2-1). She also steps down to a distance she’s unbeaten over (1:1-0-0). With the small field, she’s not going to get too far back. If Charleton Eddie doesn’t live up to his trial form, she can certainly win this. Our Boy Dylan seems to have bounced back this preparation, recording a win and a second, even though those results were in the country. He’s won at this track/distance before (3:1-1-0), will be spot on fitness wise being third up and has a lovely barrier. He’s up in class but looks to be a great value tip. Devine Beast is probably one of the only horses here with a decent turn of foot, so that’s definitely going to help her from barrier eight. She just couldn’t match them last start, with nothing written in the stewards’ report. She previously does have good form behind Magical Dream and Our Danni. She’s yet to place at this distance (2:0-0-0) but has at Ascot before (3:0-1-1). She just looks to find one better here.
1 – Charleton Eddie
3 – Island Charm
2 – Our Boy Dylan
4 – Devine Beast

Race 3 – Peoplestart Plate – 1000m –1:38pm

Bin Shalaa is unbeaten at her two trials, including one over 1000m which suggests this distance won’t be too short for her. It’s a bit hard to tell just how good the form surrounding those trials are, but she did win convincingly each time. She’s got a lovely barrier in barrier four and is one to watch going forward. Featherweight had about two months off between his second and third trial, so there’s a question mark over why this was the case. He did finish second at his third trial and was only 0.1L off the winner. With so many maidens in this race, it’s a bit hard to tell whether he’ll have to take the lead from barrier one. Either way, he’s a winning chance. Liwa has had the two starts where the heat got the better of her and then her inexperience did. She’s had just the one trial leading into this race, where she finished third but only 0.2L off the winner. She may just get too far back from barrier ten though, with no evidence yet of a turn of foot. Her trials before her first preparation suggested that she had some ability so that combined with experience over these maiden horses may just give her the edge. Just have to wait and see whether she can produce at the races what she does at trials. Pixie Chix had all sorts of excuses in the 2-year-old Magic Millions where she finished fifth. We know she’s better than that given her third two starts ago, which was at Ascot. The form surrounding her races is probably the strongest too. Look for her to bounce back in what is an even race.
9 – Bin Shalaa
1 – Featherweight
6 – Liwa
4 – Pixie Chix

Race 4 – Seacorp Handicap – 1100m – 2:18pm

Cuballing has been tracking well this preparation, including winning last start. He beat Our Boy Dylan in the process, which looks to be very good form. He rarely places outside of the top three (6:3-1-1) and has won at this track before (3:1-0-1). He’s only up an extra 100m in the distance, so I don’t think it’s going to cause too much trouble. He only has to carry 56kg with Victoria’s claim and has a good barrier. He should run another good race. Don’s Legacy finished third last start by only 0.38L behind Resortman and Weaponson, which looks like very good form given I’ve got them in my first two for their race later on in the day. He’s third up so will be spot on fitness wise, has a good barrier and only carries 58.5kg with Kristy’s claim. Plus, he’s won at this track/distance before (2:1-0-0). Winning chance. Annihilator finished last preparation off really strongly, winning with 61.5kg on his back. At least that should help him cope with the 60kg here. He finished third in a trial leading into this race and has placed first up before (3:0-1-1). He’s yet to place at this track/distance, so he may be looking for a touch further but is a great value tip. Dark Mission has just been getting way too far back at her past runs. She did show a good turn of foot first up, so hopefully, she can bring that here. From barrier one she should get too far back, and she’ll only have to carry 56kg with Laqdar’s claim. Her track record could be better (6:2-0-0), but the form surrounding her races is great. She’ll get her chance here.
4 – Cuballing
1 – Don’s Legacy
3 – Annihilator
5 – Dark Mission

Race 5 – TABtouch – Westspeed Platinum Handicap – 1500m – 2:58pm

Uncle Dick was pretty disappointing last start and while the stewards’ report stated that he got blocked on the corner, I don’t think that’s enough to explain the result. That was actually his first time outside of the top three (5:2-1-1). He has drawn a touch wide but does have the turn of foot to overcome it. He’s also unbeaten over this distance (1:1-0-0). He has the strongest form, having placed at listed level last preparation. Look for him to bounce back here. Pletto is another really consistent horse, having never placed outside of the top three (9:3-3-3). She races beyond 1300m for the first time, with all of her wins coming over 1200m. She too has a turn of foot and from barrier eight, may just sit inside Uncle Dick. It wouldn’t be a surprise at all to see her winning. All In Red has been racing extremely well in Geraldton this preparation (5:3-2-0). She won by quite a good margin on a few of those runs too. She drops 2.5kg here due to the increase in class but does have a good barrier in barrier two. She’s also pretty versatile on where she can sit in the run, which will definitely be an advantage here. Just a small question mark on whether she can match it to these city horses, but she definitely deserves a shot at it. Double Spice has recorded a win and a second this preparation, with those races being in the country. He steps up in distance, but given that he won first up over 1400m, this looks to suit him. He has good career statistics, but I just question whether he’ll be outclassed and a victim to the wide barrier. We’ll just have to wait and see.
3 – Uncle Dick
4 – Pletto
7 – All In Red
5 – Double Spice

Race 6 – Amelia Park Handicap – 1400m – 3:32pm

Resortman kind of came from nowhere last start to win, showing a good turn of foot in the process. After being a bit hit and miss last preparation, it looks like he’s bounced back to his former self. He does rise 2.5kg off that win but does have a better barrier in barrier five. He’s unbeaten second up (2:2-0-0) and has won over this distance before (3:1-0-0), though not placed at this track/distance (1:0-0-0). He may be a better 1200m horse but should go well here. Weaponson finished second to Resortman last start and gets 1.5kg on him here as a result (he only has to carry 54kg with Kristy’s claim). He really hasn’t put a foot wrong this preparation, he just finds one or two better occasionally. He steps up to 1400m for the first time, but given how strongly he’s been finishing his races, we hope it will suit him. The barrier gods are once again not on our side, drawing barrier nine here. However, we did see two starts ago that he can run on. If he can handle the distance and hasn’t had enough this preparation, I except another top three finish. Downforce won in a really nice fashion last Wednesday. He’s up in class here but it does mean that he drops 3.5kg off that run. He actually finished third behind Weaponson’s second two starts ago too, so he should be up to this class. He’s won at this track/distance before (2:1-0-0), which was last start and really turned a corner three starts ago. He’s definitely in with a chance. Lorentinio looked to have just burnt out late last start after leading all the way. The start before that was really good though, finishing half a length behind Dig Deep and beating Son Of A God in the process. From barrier seven he’s going to have to use a bit of energy early on to get to the front but at least with Laqdar’s claim, he only has to carry 55.5kg. He’s no stranger to this track/distance (12:2-2-4) and rounds out an even race.
4 – Resortman
8 – Weaponson
9 – Downforce
2 – Lorentinio

Race 7 – Stork Technical Services Handicap – 2200m – 4:12pm

Cousin Ivan did well to finish as close as he did last start given that he did get back and was carrying 61.5kg. He is up in class here, so does drop back to 58.5kg. He’s never raced over 2200m, but it definitely looks to suit given his record over 2000m (2:1-1-0), with that win being at listed level. The wide barrier is the only concern for me and how far he’ll get back from it. Winifer was never really in the race last start, with a whole heap of excuses in the stewards’ report. She returns to Ascot and 2200m here which is definitely in her favour (6:2-1-1). It’s lucky that she does have a turn of foot as she’s going to be needing it from barrier fifteen. If she misbehaves again, she’s a likely victim of the wide barrier. Upward Others has finished in the top four at his past four starts, including winning two starts ago. Last start he finished fourth to Hyperspace’s second, but I think this horse is a touch more consistent, hence I’ve got him ahead of Hyperspace (before scratchings). He also has a much better track/distance record (8:1-1-2) and has drawn a decent barrier. He should run a good race and is great value at $15! Bella’s Idol won in a nice fashion last start at Ascot over 2150m. That win does mean she has to carry 60.5kg, which is always a tough ask over these long distances. She’s won at this track/distance before (3:1-0-0) and has an inside barrier. If she can repeat last start’s performance she’s not without her chance.
2 – Cousin Ivan
4 – Winifer
14 – Upward Others
1 – Bella’s Idol

Race 8 – Detonator Stakes – 1800m – 4:50pm

Montelena got bumped after the jump last start, which probably resulted in her losing momentum and being further back than they would have liked. This could happen again from barrier ten, but we did see a good turn of foot last preparation. She’s actually yet to win second up (2:0-1-0) or at this track/distance (2:0-1-0), which is surprising. Look for her to change those statistics here. Last Of The Line is still yet to place outside of the top three in his career (8:5-1-2) and has been taking each step up in distance in his stride. He steps up to 1800m for the first time, so there is that unknown element, but he has the class and ability to overcome it. It’s hard to fault him so no reason why he can’t win. Huge threat! She’s Alight is a hit and miss horse, but when she’s on she’s great, especially during her listed win and second in December. I feel like a broken record, but she’s going to be needing that turn of foot from the extremely wide barrier. She’s yet to place at this track/distance (1:0-0-0) but she can surprise here. Trap For Fools has appreciated being back in Perth I reckon. He’s had seven weeks between runs and a maintenance trial leading into this race, where he finished third. He has placed at this track/distance before (5:0-0-2) but is probably looking for a touch further. He’ll have to use some energy early on to get to the front from barrier sixteen but he will give them something to run down.
16 – Montelena
13 – Last Of The Line
7 – She’s Alight
3 – Trap For Fools

Race 9 – Crown Sports Bar Handicap – 1600m – 5:30pm

What About Moses has improved this preparation, having yet to place outside of the top three. 1600m may be a touch too far for him, but he has placed at this track/distance before (1:0-0-1). The form surrounding his races is good. He’s not going to want to get too far back from barrier ten given that he doesn’t seem to have a turn of foot. He should run a good race. Recapitulate had really good form down south and backed that up with a second last start at Ascot over this distance (1:0-1-0). He looks to be the likely leader, so he will give them something to run down with only 56.5kg on his back due to Laqdar’s claim. He’s yet to win at Ascot (3:0-1-0), but this could change here. Good value bet. Seminole Brave is coming off a win at Ascot and overcame a wide barrier in the process. He’s actually unbeaten at this track/distance thanks to last start (1:1-0-0). He does his best work when in the first few, so the wide barrier could be a blessing. Winning chance. Beat The Bell just seems to be getting a bit too far back in her runs lately, though does have a turn of foot. She’s actually yet to place over this distance (7:0-0-0) which is a bit of a concern. She’s also drawn barrier thirteen but at least she only has to carry 53.5kg with Carleen’s claim. Sneaky chance.
9 – What About Moses
2 – Recapitulate
5 – Seminole Brave
10 – Beat The Bell

Best Bet

Race 4 – Cuballing

Confidence rating

I think it’s going to take a few weeks for me to build my confidence up. In terms of which races to avoid this week, races 1, 2, 3, 5, 8 and 9 look particularly even. There is a bit of value in my tips today, so I’m hoping for a good day!

Last Week’s Results

R2 – boxed first four
R5 – quinella
R6 – quinella
R8 – boxed trifecta
Winners in top 4- 7/9
Top picks: -, 2nd, -, 3rd, 2nd, 2nd, -, 2nd, –
Best bet: 2nd
Profit: -9.5