Ascot 19/10/2019

Conditions

Rail – 5m
Track – Good 4
Forecast – Max 31, mostly sunny

Race 1 – Oktoberfest Handicap – 1200m – 12:37pm

This is quite a strong field to start the day, but Red Can Man is two for two this preparation and has never placed outside the top 3 in his career (5:2-1-2). Born to Try has won her previous two starts and the start before that was a second to Some Sort, who is a good horse. There’s no reason she can’t win here. Boomtastic also won last start and ran second to Windstorm two starts ago, which is very good form after Wednesday. Kay Cee showed a very impressive turn of foot, going from last to first. He’s back after a short spell but did trial nicely leading into this race.
2 – Red Can Man
4 – Born to Try
6 – Boomtastic
3 – Kay Cee

Race 2 – Westspeed Platinum Series Heat 1 – 1200m – 1:18pm

Bee Quick won last start and she should only improve on that first up performance. She does seem to have some turn of foot too based on last preparation. Shuwish came third to Cup Night in a listed race in the autumn, with this looking like good form after Cup Night’s recent performances. The 60kg is a concern for me though, especially as her trials have only been good coming into this race. Sir Mambo has been knocking on the door, running 2nd in his previous 4 starts. However, he would have preferred a softer track and they weren’t against fantastic horses, so I’m not sure he can turn the table here. Bedouin Belle should be fitter second up in this race.
9 – Bee Quick
1 – Shuwish
2 – Sir Mambo
6 – Bedouin Belle

Race 3 – TABTouch – Better Your Bet Handicap – 1000m – 1:55pm

Massimo has had nearly two months off, and he comes into this race without a trial, but he does seem to have ability. Pretty Style has won two trials leading into this race and she has a great career record (3:2-1-0), so she is a serious threat. King’s Authority has definitely not been performing at his best lately, however, he does drop down in class here and with lots of speed in the race, they’ll give him something to chase down. Spirit and Fire is another horse not at his best, but he has faced some very good horses and is also down in class.
7 – Massimo
8 – Pretty Style
2 – King’s Authority
1 – Spirit and Fire

Race 4 – Glenroy Chaff Handicap – 1600m – 2:42pm

Lady Sass is on the one-week backup (when I had her on top), where she looked to get too far back and maybe boxed in. From a better barrier, she should settle in a better spot and then run on. Scintillating obviously didn’t handle the Kalgoorlie track but he can bounce back here. Harry Thomas is always there but he can’t quite get the chocolates. Arnie’s Boy was racing quite well last preparation and he probably needed that run at Kalgoorlie this preparation.
4 – Lady Sass
11 – Scintillating
2 – Harry Thomas
6 – Arnie’s Boy

Race 5 – Amelia Park Handicap – 1800m – 3:18pm

Cockney Crew is clearly a horse with ability and there’s no reason he can’t win again here. He should be finding the front with Beaucount. Jedaffair has won her previous two starts. She’s up in class and distance here but I don’t think that will be a problem. Sliced Bread won the Gannons Ladies Day Cup last start and he’s an interesting horse to follow. Beaucount is on the one-week backup and he was disappointing last start, but he did win the race before that.
1 – Cockney Crew
5 – Jedaffair
10 – Sliced Bread
8 – Beaucount

Race 6 – Seacorp Handicap – 1400m – 4:00pm

Regal Counsel has been racing well and only recently broke his picket fence streak. I’m looking for him to bounce back here. Spillinova drops down in class after racing well against some good horses. He also has a good track/distance record (2:1-1-0). Cryptic Love showed a great turn of foot 5 starts ago and if she can repeat that she could go close. Midnight Sky didn’t end last preparation very well, but she was racing incredible well 5 starts before that.
2 – Regal Counsel
3 – Spillinova
6 – Cryptic Love
5 – Midnight Sky

Race 7 – Furphy-RS Crawford Stakes – 1000m – 4:35pm

Stageman has raced against some very good horses and held his ground. There’s no doubt that one of Mr Peters’ horses should win (before the scratching of Arcadia Prince), but Stageman has Pike and fitness on his side. Flirtini was racing incredibly well last preparation and she has form behind Arcadia Queen who is racing in the Everest today. Fabergino is coming into this race without a trial but she certainly has good career statistics (8:5-0-2). River Dance comes into this race without a trial, however, his first up record is quite good (6:2-2-1) and he did race in a group  3 last preparation.
3 – Stageman
8 – Flirtini
9 – Fabergino
5 – River Dance

Race 8 – Crown Perth-Northerly Stakes – 3yo Classic – 1400m – 5:10pm

Lady Cosmology has beaten The Velvet King before and won a group 3 race in Adelaide last preparation. Her run last start was also good and she should be fitter second up here. The VelvetKing is facing his toughest assignment yet to date. He’s on the one-week backup but the inside barrier should suit. Personally, I’d be happy with a top 3 finish because there are some very impressive horses who are in form. Great Shot is a very consistent horse, both in his pattern of leading the race and finishing in the top 4 at least. Samizdat’s connections were worried about the wide barrier, but he’s won from there before and he has great form. I don’t normally do this, but a special mention must go to Lordhelpmerun, who I’ve always had a high opinion of and has been trying to chase The Velvet King down for a while now.
12 – Lady Cosmology
7 – The Velvet King
1 – Great Shot
8 – Samizdat

Race 9 – Seppelt Wines Handicap – 1200m – 5:45pm

Dance Music has ability, with only one loss in her career (7:6-0-0) and she should be winning here. Tinsnip’s trials have been ok but he was on fire last preparation. In Love With Paris has been placing very consistently against some good horses. Inflation was also consistent last preparation. He steps up in distance here, but Pike also jumps on board.
3 – Dance Music
10 – Tinsnip
4 – In Love With Paris
12 – Inflation

Best Bet

Race 9 – Dance Music

Confidence rating

It’s quite low today. Mostly because the races are fairly evenly matched and I would have to preferred to spend a bit more time studying each race.