Ascot 18/01/2020

Conditions

Rail – 5m
Track – Good 4
Forecast – Max 31 degrees, mostly sunny

Race 1 – Vale Harold “Boy” Hutchison Handicap – 1200m – 12:37pm

Money Matters won last start and has good form surround a few of his races. He does have to carry a bit of weight though, however, he did win very impressively last start (by 8.9L) with 60kg. Ohbeeh won first up after coming off good trials. He looks to be a horse with ability and can definitely win again here. Guesteen hasn’t run outside the top three in her two starts (2:1-0-1) and looks to have just run into a good horse last start where she got third. Unibelle got too far back at her first start in a field of eleven, so with a small field and better barrier, she should be able to settle into a better spot.
1 – Money Matters
2 – Ohbeeh
6 – Guesteen
8 – Unibelle

Race 2 – TabTouch Westspeed Platinum Maiden – 1100m – 1:17pm

War Anthem has very record without actually having won a race (9:0-3-5). He’s got good form, running third to Guesteen and Ohbeeh, who are both in the previous race. Diamond Trade has had better luck on a soft track and seems to get quite far back in her races, which looks to be the only option here again with that wide barrier. She has, however, won a trial leading into this race and does seem to have a good turn of foot. Peggie’s Joy is another runner in this race for Bruce Watkins. She has form behind Tinto Belle and Cockyjoy, which is good (though not fantastic form), trialled well and should be fit third up. Bruce Almighty was very disappointing last start, but he can bounce back here.
1 – War Anthem
7 – Diamond Trade
12 – Peggie’s Joy
3 – Bruce Almighty

Race 3 – Amelia Park Plate – 1100m – 1:57pm

Madam Torio has trialled very nicely, with both trials being over 950m which I like (instead of 400m like some of the others). Pike gets the ride and Martin Allan deserves some luck, after losing a stable star in a freak accident this week. Sunnysilk has the most experience in this field, even though she’s only had two starts. I think stepping back up to 1100m (where she got second at his first start) is a good idea and the experience could be handy. Convalesce has had three trials for two seconds and a first, so not only is he fit but he seems to have ability too. Brooklyn Pier also won a trial over 1000m leading into this race and rounds out a very competitive top four.
9 – Madam Torio
7 – Sunnysilk
3 – Convalesce
2 – Brooklyn Pier

Race 4 – Glenroy Chaff Handicap – 1600m – 2:37pm

Son of Bacchus is an ultra-consistent horse and is deserving of a win by now. He also gets a better barrier and weight here compared to last start where he ran very well. Patristic is looking for his third win in a row. He should be leading and giving them something to run down, but I question the form surrounding his previous races, as Playing Marika came second in those races and Son of Bacchus came second to its third at his last start. Midnight Sky was disappointing last start, but she gets another chance here. Stepping back up to 1600m will definitely benefit plus she won’t have to carry the full 60kg with Chris’ claim. Star Value had a year off and looks to have come back well. He probably needed those previous runs and should be fit third up.
7 – Son of Bacchus
9 – Patristic
1 – Midnight Sky
3 – Star Value

Race 5 – Miss Andretti Stakes – 1100m – 3:14pm

Valour Road has the best form over the other horses, including a second in a group 3 last start. He also gets Pike on board and should settle into a nice spot from that barrier. Don’t Fuss was on fire last preparation. He should improve off last start despite being up in class. The Celt belt Valour Road two starts ago, but then didn’t back up in the following race. He also gives Valour Road 1kg this time and has a worse barrier. Belter ran a good second to Fabergino last start, with talks of this horse now heading east. His second up recorded isn’t the best (3:0-1-0) and 1000m may be his ideal distance, but he’ll give this a red-hot crack.
2 – Valour Road
5 – Don’t Fuss
1 – The Celt
4 – Belter

Race 6 – David Della Rocca Handicap – 2100m – 3:50pm

Alimentaria does meet Mackenzie Brooke 1kg worse in the weights, despite running third to her last start, but Alimentaria is just a bit more consistent. She also gets Pike back after they won together two starts ago. Mackenzie Brooke has a lot going for her and is a serious threat to my top pick. She gets better in the weights, despite rising 4kg to 60kg, plus her last 600m last start was also better than Alimentaria. However, while she’s going for three in a row, I question her performances in her previous races. Montagna ran second to Alimentaria two starts ago and gets 1.5kg on her here. He’s been running pretty well this preparation but does go up in class and has a wide barrier to contend with. Barbie Will Do has also faced a few of these horses before. She won last start and goes pretty well as long as she doesn’t get too far back.
3 – Alimentaria
2 – Mackenzie Brooke
5 – Montagna
1 – Barbie Will Do

Race 7 – Terence Brown 80th Birthday Handicap – 1400m – 4:20pm

Coming Around won last start. He has a good third up record (2:1-0-1) and should go well, in what is a very mixed race. Diftstar beat Inspirational Girl last start, ruining her winning streak (she was going for three in a row). His performances before that have been ok. Dickoletto has form behind good horses including Not To Be Mist. I think the 1600m may have been too far for him last start, especially as he has a good record over this distance at Ascot (8:1-1-3). Why Choose Her would have liked a softer track but did come from the back to get third last start.
3 – Coming Around
10 – Diftstar
5 – Dickoletto
8 – Why Choose Her

Race 8 – Seacorp Handicap – 1000m – 4:50pm

Essential Spice was simply beaten by a better horse last start. She gets another chance to win here and only has to carry 58kg with Chris’ claim. Undisclosed also comes out of the same race as Essential Spice. She wasn’t so good last start but had been racing fantastically before that. She has to carry to 60kg, but she came third with this weight four starts ago, so she has shown it might not be an issue. Rebel Yell faced Essential Spice (won) and Undisclosed (second) last start, though these horses have had one and two more races retrospectively since then. He also didn’t race that well then but has placed first and second before that. With Pike on board, he could potentially turn the tables. Chix Pic probably doesn’t deserve to be this far down my list, especially with his second up record (3:1-1-0), but I think the other horses are just in better form.
1 – Essential Spice
3 – Undisclosed
8 – Rebel Yell
4 – Chix Pic

Race 9 – Crown Sports Bar Handicap – 1000m – 5:25pm

Transgressor has had over a month off so will be fresh heading into this race. However, he did win last start and has only placed outside the top two once in five starts (5:2-2-0). Imperial Venus has had two quiet trials leading into this race. Connections will be hoping that Pike can turn around his first up record (4:1-0-0). Dynabelle should benefit going back to 1000m, after getting run down last start. That was her only hiccup as she won two races before that start. Tycoon Legend got too far back last start, so I’ll forgive that run. He won a trial and race before that, so can bounce back here.
1 – Transgressor
8 – Imperial Venus
7 – Dynabelle
9 – Tycoon Legend

Best Bet

Race 4 – Son Of Bacchus

Confidence rating

I’ve picked some low odds favourites which makes me a bit nervous (if you know me, you’ll know that I hate the pressure of being favourite when my horse is running too). There’re quite a few races where  there’s no standout winners, but that should make for a great day of racing!