Ascot 17/10/2021

Conditions

Rail – 7m
Track – Good 4
Forecast – Max 28 degrees, mostly sunny

Race 1 – Budget Truck Rental Maiden – 1100m – 11:53pm

1 – Miami City
3 – Yardman
2 – Keep It Hush
6 – Lonehand Larry

Comment: Miami City is literally knocking on the door for a win (6:0-2-3) and looks to be well suited here. Yardman is probably looking for a bit more distance and is yet to place first up (3:0-0-0) but has won a trial leading into this race. Keep It Hush placed second in a trial but does have slightly stronger form lines that Yardman. Lonehand Larry won his trial by 4.56L so I’ll be interested to see if that performance holds up here.

Suggested bet: Miami City – each way

Race 2 – Glenroy Chaff Handicap – 1000m – 12:29pm

1 – Chantorque
2 – Iseered Iseered
4 – Acromantula
3 – Vadette De Star

Comment: Chantorque definitely has the best form in this race and only has to carry 57.5kg with Victoria’s claim. She’s also unbeaten over this track/distance (3:3-0-0). Iseered Iseered has stepped up to Saturday class nicely and is looking to make it three wins in a row. He’ll be giving Chantorque something to chase. Acromantula had a few excuses in the Placid Ark back back in November. He’s won a trial leading into this race, so should bounce back here. Vadette De Star will appreciate dropping back in distance and returning to a good track.

Suggested bet: Chantorque, Iseered Iseered and Acromantula – each way

Race 3 – TABtouch – Westspeed Platinum Autumn Series Heat 3 – 1200m – 1:09pm

4 – Requisition
7 – Image Keeper
2 – Scooter’s Machine
1 – Sir Mambo

Comment: Requisition probably had the ideal run last start. Barrier 11 is going to make things a little bit harder for him but he has been racing consistently. Image Keeper is unbeaten at this distance (2:2-0-0) and looking to make it three wins a row. His previous wins have been in a lower class though. Scooter’s Machine did have excuses last start but can also be his own worst enemy. He does have good form behind Charleton Eddie though and only has to carry 57.5kg with Kristy’s claim. Sir Mambo also had excuses last start and it was his first time outside of the top three at this track/distance (4:2-0-1). 60.5kg (with Laqdar’s claim) looks to be a big ask.

Suggested bet: Requisition and Image Keeper – each way

Race 4 – All Flags Signs And Banners Handicap – 1200m – 1:45pm

9 – Miss Conteki
1 – Nerodio
4 – Moschard
3 – Chix Pic

Comment: Miss Conteki is on fire at the moment, looking to make it six wins in a row. The only concern is that she steps up to 1200m for the first time. Nerodio didn’t finish that far off the leaders at his trial leading into this race. He has a good first up record (3:2-0-0) and placed at this track/distance before (4:0-0-3). These two are lengths better than the rest. Moschard performed well last preparation, finishing third behind Truly Great. He’s first up here (6:1-0-1) though, without a trial. Chix Pic didn’t finish too far off Clairvoyance last start. He’s second up (5:2-1-0) but doesn’t look to be racing consistently enough to challenge my top two tips.

Suggested bet: Miss Conteki and Nerodio – each way

Race 5 – Amelia Park Handicap – 2100m – 2:25pm

2 – Final Chill
12 – Sheikh It
4 – Secret Pearl
1 – So Schmick

Comment: Final Chill has really been liking the longer distances at Ascot. He’s looking to make it three wins in a row. Sheikh It is up in class and won’t know himself with just 54kg in his back. He races beyond 1800m for the first time but it looks to suit. Secret Pearl has been very disappointing at her two runs this preparation. She’ll appreciate the step up in distance. So Schmick has been racing well in the country, but 61kg is a big ask in this even field.

Suggested bet: Final Chill, Sheikh It and Secret Pearl – each way

Race 6 – Crown Towers Handicap – 1000m – 3:04pm

5 – River Beau
6 – We’ve Got Dreams
3 – Gemma’s Son
1 – Money Matters

Comment: River Beau beat Clairvoyance last start and has been racing consistently, so will bring a lot of confidence into this race. We’ve Got Dreams is a talented mare and placed second in a trial leading into this race. Gemma’s Son always flies under my radar. He’s been a bit hit and miss this preparation but loves this track/distance (4:2-0-2) and the 56kg with Kristy’s claim makes him very competitive. Money Matters seem to hit a bit of a roadblock towards the end of last preparation, but his trials suggest that he’s definitely ready to bounce back here. He rounds out a very competitive race!

Suggested bet: River Beau, We’ve Got Dreams, Gemma’s Son and Money Matters – each way

Race 7 – Seacorp Handicap – 1800m – 3:40pm

4 – Big Bada Boom
3 – Miss Marietta
7 – Pletto
9 – Off Wego

Comment: Big Bada Boom finished second last start after becoming unbalanced at the beginning. The wide barrier is a slight concern but it will enable him to get to the front. He should return to his winning ways here. Miss Marietta is super hard to fault at the moment! Again the wide barrier is the only concern. Pletto is yet to place outside of the top three this preparation. She steps up to 1800m for the first time, which does have a slight question mark over it. Off Wego placed third at two listed races behind Western Empire, which is good form. He’s placed at this track/distance before too (1:0-0-1).

Suggested bet: Big Bada Boom, Miss Marietta and Pletto – each way

Race 8 – W.A. Sires’ Produce Stakes – 1400m – 4:20pm

1 – Ex Sport Man
2 – Featherweight
9 – Hoi An
7 – Liwa

Comment: Ex Sport Man showed a great turn of foot last start and has drawn lovely in barrier 4. Featherweight fought really hard last week to get the win. He looks to have ability and will need some luck from barrier 11 and being on the one-week back up. Hoi An was disappointing last start but probably got too far back. She’s drawn barrier 14, so may have to go back again. She’s great value though! Liwa didn’t finish far off Ex Sport Man last start but unfortunately doesn’t get any weight on him here due to the conditions of this race. I think she’s one of the few that will really benefit from stepping up to 1400m.

Suggested bet: Ex Sport Man, Featherweight, Hoi An and Liwa – each way

Race 9 – Salinger Handicap – 1400m – 5:00pm

2 – Billy Ain’t Silly
3 – Amelia’s Contraire
6 – Mini Winnie
9 – Dipara

Comment: Billy Ain’t Silly looks to have his fair share of ability, looking to make it three wins in a row. He’s unbeaten over this track/distance (1:1-0-0) and only has to carry 57kg with Laqdar’s claim. Amelia’s Contraire has shown that she has a great turn of foot and from barrier 3, this could make her deadly. She’s also unbeaten at this track/distance (1:1-0-0). Mini Winnie has been racing in a lower grade but you can’t knock winning form. His last two races have been over 1400m and he’s unbeaten at this distance (2:2-0-0). Dipara ran a great race last preparation and I just love her track/distance record too (4:3-1-0). She rounds out an even race.

Suggested bet: Billy Ain’t Silly, Amelia’s Contraire, Mini Winnie and Dipara – each  way

Best Bet

Race 5 – Final Chill

Confidence rating

My confidence is ok this week, though it probably decreases as the day goes on. Races 2, 6, 7, 8 and 9 look to be particularly nasty while races 3 and 4 look to be a battle between my top two tips. I’ve gone for a bit of value with my best bet, so I’m hoping it will pay off. It’s a great day for racing, that’s for sure!

Last Week’s Results

R2 – boxed first four
R4 – quinella
R8 – exacta
Winners in top 4- 8/9
Top picks: -, -, 1st, 2nd, -, 2nd, 1st, 1st, –
Best bet: 1st
Profit: -5.98 ($1ew on top tips and $2ew on bb)