Ascot 17/10/2020

Conditions

Rail – 5m
Track – Good 4
Forecast – Max 27 degrees, sunny

Race 1 – Oktoberfest Handicap – 2200m – 12:37pm

Xan Bio does seem to be a horse on the way up, recording career-best results in her past five starts. The only bad run in those five starts is where she finished fifth after getting too far back. This is a concern here as she has drawn wide, but with not a lot of speed in the race, she’ll hopefully settle into a lovely position. She loves this distance (3:2-1-0) and definitely does her best work on a good track (4:2-1-0), so conditions look to suit in that regard. She won last start, beating Without Reason, with the pair putting a gap on the field. She does have to give him 1kg for that result, though she’s still very competitively weight. She’s great value, opening at $8.50/$2.70! Sugar Cain is your definition of a hit and miss horse. She was disappointing last start, with no excuses in the stewards’ report, but then won the start before that. She does seem to like to run from the back, which is perhaps why she gets into so much trouble. However, here she has a good barrier, so shouldn’t get too far back. She also only has to carry 55.5kg with Laqdar’s claim, which certainly makes her competitive. She’s placed at this track/distance before (2:0-1-0), but we’ll just have to see which version of her turns up. Without Reason comes out of the same race as Xan Bio and gets a bit of weight relief on her as I previously mentioned. He’s really improved in his last three runs and looks ready to take the step up in class (which probably contributes to the 1kg drop in weight). The only reason he’s not on top is that his last 600m times on average are slower than Xan Bio, plus he’s yet to win at this distance (4:0-1-1) or place at this track (2:0-0-0). However, given the form that he’s in, if my top tip doesn’t bring her A-game, he can win this. Bollinger Boy put in a really nice performance at Kalgoorlie last start, coming from the back to win. Prior to that he also finished fourth behind Without Reason, so he looks to be well placed in this race. He’s yet to race over 2200m, but given how he’s been performing over 2100m, I can’t see the extra 100m being a problem. He’s yet to place at this track (2:0-0-0) but does appreciate a good going. He should run a good race.
7 – Xan Bio
3 – Sugar Cain
2 – Without Reason
1 – Bollinger Boy

Race 2 – Westspeed Platinum Series Heat 1 – 1200m – 1:19pm

Igarashi seems to be a bit forgotten about in this race or perhaps I’m just not seeing something. She’s recorded a win and a second this preparation, with that second being behind Fiery Water, which looks like good form to follow. She drops 3.5kg off that run and also has a good barrier here. She seems to have really matured since April and she’s placed at this track/distance before (3:0-1-1). She does rise in class and perhaps doesn’t have the turn of foot like some of these other horses, but I’m willing to risk it for $12/$3.2. Rewrite The Stars looked to have just had enough last preparation, with her last start being her only bad run. Her trial leading into this race suggests that she’s back for another good preparation and her first up record confirms that she can go well fresh (3:0-1-1). This distance is certainly her favourite (9:2-2-2), though results vary for her track/distance record (3:0-1-0). Chris did pick Time To Sizzle over her (before he got scratched), but with Chloe’s claim she does only have to carry 57.5kg. There’s no reason why she won’t be in the finish. Native Chimes hasn’t been racing at her best at her previous two starts. There was nothing written in the stewards’ report, so this does raise a few concerns for me. Prior to that, she had won two in a row, so maybe she was slightly outclassed too. She goes well at this distance (7:1-2-0) but seems to hate Ascot (5:0-0-0), though she hasn’t raced here since this time last year, so a lot could have changed since then. Lucy did pick Igarashi over her, but with a good barrier this horse can hopefully bounce back here. I’m Pretty finished off last preparation in a good style at Pinjarra. She hasn’t been to the city since this time last year, so should have built up some confidence in those country races. She’s first up here with a good first up record (3:0-1-1), though her trial leading into this race certainly wasn’t anything flashy. She’s also placed at this track/distance (1:0-1-0). I’d certainly be more confident if she was racing on a soft track and I just question the form surrounding her races. She can surprise though.
8 – Igarashi
2 – Rewrite The Stars
7 – Native Chimes
1 – I’m Pretty

Race 3 – Morley Growers Market Handicap – 1200m – 1:55pm

Secret Plan won in a fabulous fashion at his first career start, after coming off an average trial. He showed a great turn of foot, coming from last to win, beating some good horses in the process. He’s drawn wide here, but we saw him overcome a wide barrier last start and again, that turn of foot should help. You must always respect the cerise and white when they win first up like that! Friday Knight has just been doing a few things wrong but hopefully being third up here, he’s finally connected a few dots. The reason I swayed towards him, in what is a very competitive race, is that his last 600m times are just breathtaking. He also steps up in distance here, so hopefully, the extra 200m just gives him more time to run them down. He has a good barrier and is surprisingly low in the weights considering how much ability he looks to have. His speed can see him winning here. Sassy Trader won a 1000m trial (and by a good margin) leading into this race so looks ready for another great preparation. He’s unbeaten first up (1:1-0-0) and has only raced at this track (2:1-1-0). He looks to be the leader with Big Screen, so if they’re winning from the front watch out for him. He does have to carry 60kg, so slight question mark over that. Otherwise, he should run a good race! Kissonallforcheeks actually beat Sassy Trader last time they met in May and has to give him 1.5kg as a result. Last preparation she was improving with each run, with her two wins being at her last two starts. Without having a trial leading into this race, it’s a bit hard to tell where she’s at fitness wise, but we can assume that she’s only matured since May. She has an ok first up record (2:0-1-0), but the form surrounding her races is particularly strong. She should be right in the finish of this very even race.  
6 – Secret Plan
9 – Friday Knight
1 – Sassy Trader
2 – Kissonallforcheeks                       

Race 4 – Amelia Park Handicap – 1600m – 2:42pm

Notorious One is finally racing again! He is unbeaten in his career (2:2-0-0), which he only started last month as a five-year-old. The form surrounding those wins probably isn’t the strongest, but every horse must make their way through the grades. He does step up in distance but given his racing pattern I don’t think this will be a problem, in fact, it should only give him more time to catch them. The rise in class also means he drops 3kg off last start and he has a good barrier. Hopefully, his ability can bring home the win. Arnie’s Boy has been racing in career-best form at his past five starts. I particularly like his form behind Montelena five starts ago and his winning performance two starts ago. He teams up with Alan again here, which is good to see as he just seems to run for him. He’s drawn wide but it does seem like he can run on to some extent, as long as Alan doesn’t position him too far back. He has a good track/distance record (4:0-3-0) and finished third last time he was at this class. This race doesn’t look to be particularly hard on paper so he’s a great value place bet. Playing Marika finished seventh to Arnie’s Boy last start and gets 2kg on him as a result. There was nothing in the stewards’ report to explain that poor performance, which is a bit of a concern. However, she rarely puts in a bad race. She has a good barrier, distance record (6:1-0-1) and track record (8:2-0-1).  Look for her to bounce back here. Deception Game won last start in the Gannons Ladies Day Cup at Northam over this distance, which is where a few of these other horses are coming from too. He actually gets 0.5kg on Kelly’s Callisto despite beating her but gives 2kg to Arnie’s Boy. He definitely does his best work on a good track (12:6-3-0), so connections will be glad that the spring weather is here. He’s also placed at this track/distance before (1:0-1-0). He may just find my top tip too good.
8 – Notorious One
3 – Arnie’s Boy
6 – Playing Marika
2 – Deception Game

Race 5 – Glenroy Chaff Handicap – 1400m – 3:18pm

Heaven’s Gift looks to be a very good horse in the making. She has great listed form behind Chantrea and is yet to finish outside of the top three (4:2-1-1). Her trial leading into this race wasn’t as snappy, but there’s no doubt that she’s looking for further. I thought the 1400m might be too short, but she won over this distance first up last preparation. In fact, she’s unbeaten over this distance (1:1-0-0) and first up (1:1–0-0). The wide barrier and rise in weight is a concern, but she has won with those conditions previously. She will only improve as she steps up in distance, but she’s a great value tip here! Indigo Blue had a few excuses last start where she finished fourth at Kalgoorlie. That was her first time finishing outside of the top three and not running smoothly around the corner almost definitely cost her there. Her form prior to that was very good and return to a good track with a decent barrier should definitely benefit. She’s a bit vulnerable stepping up in distance but I can’t see a reason to why she won’t handle it. She’s a huge threat to my top tip and is definitely a safer bet! Bolshoi Gal has only placed outside of the top three once this preparation. She does step up in class here and drops 2.5kg as a result. She also has a great barrier and Chris is riding extremely well at the moment. This distance is probably her ideal distance (8:1-1-4) and she has placed at this track/distance before (1:0-0-1). The form surrounding her races could be a little stronger, but there’s no reason for her to run a bad race. Point Taken looked to have simply gotten too far back last start (and maybe even boxed in), so just put a line through that run, especially as she had been racing well before that. My biggest concern is that Ascot seems to be far from her favourite track (12:1-0-1) and she arguably goes better on a softer track. She’s also yet to place at this distance (1:0-0-0), but she did finish second over 1300m three starts ago, so surely the extra 100m shouldn’t be a problem. With Chloe’s claim she only has to carry 57kg, but she might just find one better here.
4 – Heaven’s Gift
9 – Bolshoi Gal
10 – Indigo Blue
3 – Point Taken

Race 6 – Crown Towers Handicap – 1000m – 3:55pm

Battle Storm looked to be a great horse in the making, so much so that he was sent to Melbourne in March, where he did fail to fire. We haven’t seen him race or even trial in WA since July last year, so it’s certainly hard to tell where he’s at physically and mentally. What is in his favour is that he’s unbeaten at this distance (5:5-0-0) and he has a good first up record (3:2-0-0), which was only tarnished by that Melbourne start. If he’s returned to his old self, then he’s one to watch this carnival! Condor Heroes is going to make it a battle between my top two tips. His first up effort was very good, where he finished second to Long Beach with 61kg. He drops to 58.5kg due to the rise in class but has drawn wide. Given that he looks to be the obvious leader, this could be a blessing as long as he jumps well. He’s unbeaten at this track/distance (2:2-0-0) and can absolutely win this! Niccovi certainly didn’t disgrace herself when she was racing in Melbourne this time last year. We hadn’t seen her since the listed Placid Ark in November last year (which she finished third in), until she stepped out in a trial this month, where she came second behind Great Shot. This suggests that she’s well and truly ready for a good preparation. Her track record is good (4:1-0-1) as is her first up record (3:0-2-0). If her form is as good as it looks, then watch out. State Attorney probably isn’t going as well as his stablemate. He’s had two trials leading into this race, with the latest one being nothing spectacular. He’s also yet to win at this distance (9:0-4-1) or track/distance (4:0-2-0). The biggest thing in his favour is that he has a fabulous first up record (5:1-2-2), is weighted competitively and has a good barrier. He’s a bit of a watch and see for me.
3 – Battle Storm
2 – Condor Heroes
5 – Niccovi
10 – State Attorney

Race 7 – Furphy-R.S. Crawford Stakes – 1000m – 4:30pm

Indian Pacific is looking to stamp himself as a serious carnival horse here. His trial leading into this race was fantastic and statistically, he has a lot going for him. He’s unbeaten first up (2:2-0-0) and loves this track/distance (3:2-0-1). He’s drawn wide and usually likes to take the lead, but with Flower Of War and Mervyn both be looking to go forward, hopefully, he can take a sit behind them. The only thing that would make me more confident is if he was racing on a soft track. This is a competitive race, but I’d be surprised if he doesn’t at least place! Valour Road bounces back incredibly well in group 3 and listed races after the Winterbottom. He hasn’t raced since February this year, so slight question mark on whether he’ll need this run fitness wise. However, he did win a trial leading into this. His track/distance record is good (2:1-0-0), while his first up record is better (5:3-0-0). Given the conditions of this race, I think he gets in incredibly well with the weights, especially given his achievements. If he can continue last preparation’s form, he’s very much in this! Laverrod is yet to finish outside the top three in his very impressive career (12:4-5-3). The races he didn’t win last preparation were behind a very good horse in Kay Cee, so that’s certainly no knock on his performance! He’s also won a trial leading into this race and definitely does his best work when he’s fresh (3:1-1-1). He’s also unbeaten at this track/distance (1:1-0-0). If we’re comparing him to my top tip, he does have a better barrier, but his last 600m times on average aren’t as fast. Other than that, I can’t see why he can’t win. Stageman won the key lead up race, though only one other horse in this race comes out of that one, with another seven having their first start here. That race was on a soft track, which this horse loves, but he has won multiple times on a good track so that’s not a concern (15:5-3-3). This distance does seem to be his favourite (7:3-2-2) and he has a great second up record (4:3-0-1). He perhaps made the step up in class too quickly last year, but I think he’s ready now. He rounds out a very even top four!
10 – Indian Pacific
2 – Valour Road
9 – Laverrod
5 – Stageman

Race 8 – Crown Perth-Northerly Stakes – 1400m – 5:05pm

Kay Cee seemed to hang out quite a bit in the straight in her trial leading into this race, which did end in a disappointing result. However, she wasn’t that far off the winner and she’ll only improve with the extra distance here. She won the Kingston Town last year, so we know she’ll only improve as she steps up in distance. However, she is unbeaten at 1400m (3:3-0-0). She also loves this track (5:2-2-1) and track/distance (1:1-0-0). Her first up record isn’t perfect (2:1-0-0) but this was due to her fourth place at her first ever race (her only time outside the top three too). This is certainly a lot hard than the races she faced in June, but if she’s going to head to the main feature races this carnival, she’ll need to prove she’s worthy here. Just hoping she can bounce back from that trial. Money Matters looks to be adding to the speed in this race with Massimo and Great Shot also looking to go forward. This horse is on fire at the moment, coming off a win in the listed Hannans. This race is definitely a lot more difficult than that one and the wide barrier looks to pose a few problems. He’s yet to win at this track/distance (2:0-1-1) but has yet to finish outside of the top three at Ascot (4:2-1-1) and over 1400m (4:2-1-1). The class and barrier are my only concerns. If he can handle that though he can surprise. Massimo finally managed to string a few wins together, including winning a listed race last start. One thing to note is that this horse has been racing since April, so I question whether he can continue in such a competitive field. At least he’ll have fitness on his side though. He also has a great distance record on his side (5:2-3-0) and a lovely barrier. His second behind Inspirational Girl and Windstorm is some of his strongest form. He can win this. Vital Silver got held up in the straight last start, so potentially could have gone a little closer (he finished fifth). His form is probably some of the strongest in this race, finishing second in the group 1 Manikato and then second in the Winterbottom. He’s well placed here, with the conditions of the race meaning that he’s not penalised at all really for those results. He’s third up so will be fit (4:1-2-0) and is unbeaten at this track/distance (2:2-0-0). Despite being down my list, don’t forget about him because he has winning claims!
4 – Kay Cee
7 – Money Matters
6 – Massimo
1 – Vital Silver

Race 9 – Seacorp Handicap – 1400m – 5:40pm

Position Of Power was disappointing last start, though nothing was written up in the stewards’ report. Given that it was his first time outside the top three this preparation, I’m willing to forgive him. Stepping back up to 1400m should benefit (7:3-2-0), though his record at this track/distance isn’t as flash (3:1-0-0). He also rises 2kg off last starts run, but he’s won with 59.5kg before, so the 56.5kg isn’t a concern at all. I’d be more confident if he was racing on a soft track, but other than that there’s not much to complain about. I’m hoping he can continue that top three streak. Tollman obviously wasn’t out to break any track records in the trial leading into this race, but it was still a good trial, nevertheless. What I do really like is his first up record (2:1-0-1), distance record (4:1-1-2) and the fact that he’s unbeaten at this track/distance (1:1-0-0). He does rise in class but given how he was racing last preparation I think he’s ready to take that jump. This class does also mean that he won’t know himself with just 55.5kg on his back. The wide barrier is a concern, but he can run on from midfield. He is definitely a threat to my top tip! Moschard seems to just be getting a bit too far back in his races, though he is finishing them off strongly. From that inside barrier, I’d love to see him settle that little bit further forward. With not many horses looking to cross him, this position is certainly possible if he jumps well. His track/distance record is good (2:1-0-0) but Ascot certainly isn’t his favourite (7:1-0-0). He can run good last 600m times, but I’m surprised to see him as the favourite. He’ll probably come out and win now that I’ve said that! Morning Song apparently didn’t handle the way the race was run last start before going for a spell. Her trials leading into this race were good, though she’s yet to even place first up (3:0-0-0). She also hasn’t place at this distance (2:0-0-0), but she does like Ascot (6:3-0-1). With a good barrier and weight, she is in this, but should only improve with more distance.
3 – Position Of Power
9 – Tollman
8 – Bad Wolf
6 – Morning Song

Best Bet

Race 3 – Secret Plan

Confidence rating

This is probably the least confident I’ve been in a while. We start the day with some big value tips in races 1 and 2, while races 3, 7 and 8 are very even and race 6 looks to be a battle between my top tips. I did think of putting Notorious One as my best bet, but his odds were a bit too short for me. I’m hoping with a few outsiders and wins I might be able to record a profit this week!

Last Week’s Results

Saturday 10/10/2020
R5-exacta
Winners in top 4 – 8/9
Top picks: 1st, 1st, 3rd (no pay), 1st, 1st, 1st, 3rd, -, –
Best bet: 3rd (no pay)
Profit: -0.76
Wednesday 14/10/2020
R1-trifecta
R7-boxed first four
Winners in top 4 – 5/8
Top picks: 1st, -, -, -, -, 3rd, 1st, –
Best bet: 3rd
Profit: -7.6