Horse Racing,  Tipping

Ascot 16/11/2019

Conditions

Rail – 10m
Track – Good 4
Forecast – Max 35 degrees, hot and sunny with light wind

Race 1 – Mira Clinic Handicap – 2150m – 12:48pm

Sentimental Gift has never placed outside the top three in all five career starts. She looks to be one of Mr Peters next champions. With Pike in the saddle and being proven over this distance, she has a lot going for her. Go Crying has been racing consistently and seems to possess a good turn of foot as long as he can get out. British Bessy steps up in class here but her last start performance was good, and she’ll appreciate this distance. Throwdown came second to Sentimental Gift last start. He should be fitter third up and one if you’re looking for a bit of value.
6 – Sentimental Gift
1 – Go Crying
8 – British Bessy
4 – Throwdown

Race 2 – Sightseeing Pass Australia Handicap – 1000m – 1:24pm

Rebel Knight trialled ok behind The Velvet King and was racing alright last preparation, but with Pike on board and dropping down in distance might benefit him. More Aces has been racing well against some good horses. The Nicconian trialled well last preparation but then brought nothing to the races, so while he’s tried well this time I’m a bit nervous about how he’ll go at the races. Wanna Be Good hasn’t been racing as well this preparation, but he does have quite a good distance record (4:1-3-0).  
10 – Rebel Knight
9 – More Aces
5 – The Nicconian
11 – Wanna Be Good 

Race 3 – Fine Wine Wholesalers Handicap – 1400m – 2:04pm

Royal Command was very good last preparation and I think he could have just been needing the run last start after having a year off. Sir Mambo has won his previous two starts and placed second in the three before that. He’s in career-best form and while this is a tougher race, he should go well. Lorentinio also won last start and while Chloe Azzopardi jumps off in favour of Mankind, he’ll definitely put in a strong race. Mankind seems to have put things together, having won his trial and first up race. He doesn’t really deserve to be this far down my list, but I’m just hesitant given that when he won last preparation, his next start wasn’t as good.
1 – Royal Command
6 – Sir Mambo
5 – Lorentinio
7 – Mankind

Race 4 – TabTough – Westspeed Platinum Series Heat 3 – 1400m – 2:43pm

Position of Power has been racing very well and despite having form around great horses, he should go well. Not To Be Mist has faced some good horse this preparation and should be fitter third up here. Lacevinsky is a horse with good form, both in race results and horses beaten. He has the potential to go one better here. Speedy Miss came second to Position of Power last start, however, the wide barrier is a concern.
4 – Position of Power
2 – Not To Be Mist
9 – Lacevinsky
10 – Speedy Miss

Race 5 – R.J. Peters Stakes – 1500m – 3:25pm

Mississippi Delta forms a very good starting field for Mr Peters (before the scratching of Regal Power). She’s had plenty of trials leading into this race, so she should have fitness on his side, while she’s also performed very nicely in those trials. Platoon is looking at going for a third win in a row and with how he’s been racing, he certainly can. Neurological could be the surprise in the race, running third to Tellem We’re Coming last start, who is heading towards the Railway. He’s also only had one bad race in four starts. Majinika has been ticking along but I’m not sure he has the same class as some of the other horses in the race, but look for him to be setting the pace.
3 – Mississippi Delta
7 – Platoon
4 – Neurological
6 – Majinika

Race 6 – Seacorp – Ascot Gold Cup – 1800m – 4:02pm

Forceful would have definitely liked a softer track, but he won last start and came second the start before at this distance. Spiritual Warrior is a very good, having won the Kalgoorlie Cup, but I think he might have liked more distance ideally. Missile Launch has also been racing well and if he brings that form, he’ll certainly be in the finish. Noir De Rue was constantly facing Spiritual Warrior in the winter and they meet again here. He’s first up here but should go well.
4 – Forceful
2 – Spiritual Warrior
5 – Missile Launch
11 – Noir De Rue

Race 7 – Breast Cancer Care – WA Champion Fillies Stakes – 1600m – 4:37pm

Tuscan Queen could be making it a very good day for Mr Peters if she wins here. She deserves to be favourite with her form and it will be no surprise if she wins, despite it being a very strong race. KayCee beat Tuscan Queen last start and actually meets her 1kg better here. Given her amazing turn of foot she can definitely win here. Special Choice is another horse with fantastic form and there’s not much to fault about her either except that she steps up 400m in distance, compared to my top two who only step up 200m. Whether this will make a difference, we’ll have to wait and see. Specialism has way more experience over these other horses, but she just hasn’t been racing as well lately.
4 – Tuscan Queen
2 – Kay Cee
5 – Special Choice
1 – Specialism

Race 8 – South African Airways – Colonel Reeves Stakes – 1100m – 5:12pm

Stageman has been racing very well against some good horses and could round out a very very good day for Mr Peters. Flirtini beat Stageman last start but is 2.5kg worse off plus the wide barrier may also set her back. However, she was racing very well this time last year and has form behind very good horses. Misty Metal also comes out of the same race, where she came second. You can’t deny her very good career form and how she’s been trialling and racing leading into this race. MarketRuler is clearly better over 1000m, as she was disappointing in a listed race over 1200m and while this race is over 1100m, she does have the class.
9 – Stageman
6 – Flirtini
5 – Misty Metal
13 – Market Ruler

Race 9 – Crown Towers Handicap – 1600m – 5:47pm

Sublime Image could mean that Mr Peters would have won the last five races on the card. She has fantastic form and the step up in class shouldn’t be a problem. Ebony Magi was very disappointing two starts ago, but she won the two previous races before that and the one after, so she has some ability. I feel a bit like a broken record, but once again the wide barrier is a concern. Inflation seems to be improving with each run and Mitchell is having a great record for this stable at the moment. Proxy surprised everyone last start. Whether he can continue that form is a question, but he’ll definitely be giving them something to run down.
14 – Sublime Image
5 – Ebony Magi
4 – Inflation
9 – Proxy


Best Bet

Race 9 – Sublime Image

Confidence rating

Never have I hoped that the saying “back Pike drink what you like” is true, with him riding eight of my top picks. Statistics say that he’s probably highly unlikely to win them all, but fingers crossed. In terms of threats, Sir Mambo in race 3, is a massive one and if you’re looking for incredible value, All Square in race 4 could be a chance.

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