Horse Racing,  Tipping

Ascot 16/10/2021

Conditions

Rail – 6m
Track – Good 4
Forecast – Max 25 degrees, possible early shower

Race 1 – Happy 70th Birthday Reg Bartle Handicap – 1200m – 12:36pm

2 – Devoted
4 – Buzzoom
5 – Hardly Ever
1 – Multinational

Comment: Devoted won in a nice fashion at his first race after coming off a winning trial. Him and the horse that came second put 6.8 lengths on the rest of the field, so hopefully, that form holds up here. There’s no reason for him to run a bad race. Buzzoom is coming off a win on Wednesday. She drops down in distance, but she is unbeaten at this track/distance (1:1-0-0). She’s also yet to finish outside of the top 3 in her career (7:2-4-1). If she races and handles the quick backup, she could surprise. Hardly Ever didn’t show a lot in her trial leading into this race. However, this happened last time back in August. She is unbeaten in her career (1:1-0-0) and can continue her good record here. Multinational had a quiet trial leading into this race. I do wonder whether he’s more a soft track horse, or just whether he needs one run under his belt to get going, especially as his second up run last preparation was particularly strong. Watch out for him next start.

Suggested bet: Devoted, Buzzoom and Hardly Ever – each way

Race 2 – Morley Growers Market Handicap – 2200m – 1:19pm

1 – Roman Flirt
7 – Regal City
6 – Secret Pearl
2 – Baramagic

Comment: Roman Flirt is on the quick one-week backup. She steps up in distance to one she’s yet to place over (1:0-0-0). She does, however, love Ascot (3:1-2-0). My only concern is whether the 60kg is going to get the better of her over this distance, but at least Pike retains the ride. Regal City is looking to make it three wins in a row, though those wins have been at Kalgoorlie. He’s never raced over 2200m, but his run last start over 2100m suggests that he’ll handle it here. From barrier 8, he should easily be able to find the front, which is where he does his best work. Secret Pearl has been disappointing at her past two runs. She had excuses in the stewards’ report, but I’m not convinced that she’s not getting to the end of her preparation. She’s on the one-week backup, so she must have recovered well from last start. The biggest thing in her favour is her track/distance record (5:3-1-1). Look for her to bounce back here. Baramagic has been a bit disappointing lately and surprisingly steps up in class here. His track/distance record is the biggest red flag for me (6:0-0-1). Being third up, hopefully, we see an improvement. His odds are too short for my liking though.

Suggested bet: Roman Flirt, Regal City and Secret Pearl – each way

Race 3 – TABtouch Westspeed Platinum Series Heat 1 – 1200m – 1:55pm

3 – Flicka’s Chance
1 – Apple Schnapps
2 – Image Keeper
5 – Jaguar Grey

Comment: Flicka’s Chance has improved really well this preparation, being undefeated in his two runs. He’s only placed at this track/distance (2:0-1-0), but he’s definitely a better horse this time around. Besides being significantly up in class, he’s hard to fault. Apple Schnapps has had four weeks between runs, so there’s a slight question mark over why that is the case, as it’s not like they were waiting for a good track. He narrowly got beaten last start while carrying 61kg, so that weight isn’t too much of a concern here. He’s also placed at this track/distance (2:0-1-0). He can win without surprising. Image Keeper didn’t record the best result after winning a trial but finishing only 2.6 lengths behind Reliable Star looks like good form to follow. He got sent back to trials and performed well, so I would just put a line through his first up run. He returns to a good track, which he’s unbeaten over (2:2-0-0) and he only has to carry 57kg due to Laqdar’s claim. He’s not without his chances. Jaguar Grey finished third to Apple Schnapps three starts ago but actually has to give him 0.5kg here. He’s going really well this preparation and has placed at this track/distance (4:0-2-0). This horse wins or loses by the narrowest of margins and I think he’ll go close again.

Suggested bet: Flicka’s Chance, Apple Schnapps, Image Keeper and Jaguar Grey – each way

Race 4 – Seacorp Handicap – 1600m – 2:44pm

2 – Karijini Aurora
1 – Staralign
5 – Rebel Knight
6 – No Apology

Comment: Karijini Aurora got scratched last week after suffering from a virus, but it could have been a blessing in disguise. She’s looking to make it three wins in a row and her fourth in five starts. I’m not convinced that she likes Ascot (5:1-0-0), but she does look to be a better horse lately. She’s up in class, but Pike did pick her over Staralign and I’m hoping that counts for something here. Staralign has just been on fire lately and not even the 60kg held him back last start. His runs this preparation have been in weaker company, but he has won at this track (3:1-0-1) and distance (5:1-0-3), however, he hasn’t faced these conditions together. Other than his form, it’s incredibly hard to fault him. Rebel Knight is probably racing in career best form, but unfortunately, he just seems to find one better on the day. The form surrounding his races is great, including getting 2kg on Karijini Aurora here since they last met, and he’s placed at this track/distance (4:0-2-1). From barrier 1, he should easily find the front too. He could surprise. No Apology comes out of the same race as Karijini Aurora where he finished fourth. He probably got a touch too far back in that race compared to what he would normally like, so hopefully, that doesn’t happen here. He drops 2.5kg off last start’s run and his track/distance record is good without having won (3:0-1-2).

Suggested bet: Karijini Aurora, Staralign, Rebel Knight and No Apology – each way

Race 5 – Glenroy Chaff Handicap – 1500m – 3:27pm

6 – Spritely Star
9 – My Fury
1 – Outback Jack
3 – Celebrity Witness

Comment: Spritely Star looks to be ready for a good preparation after winning first up. The form surrounding that win is good, with Buzzoom winning on Wednesday after finishing second to this horse. She is up in class but did finish fourth in a listed race last preparation. She’s yet to race over 1500m but handles 1400m and 1600m, so the distance shouldn’t be an issue here. Ascot doesn’t look to be her favourite track (2:0-0-1) but remember that the second race was that listed one I previously mentioned. It’s not a surprise to see her open so short. My Fury is making her way through the grades nicely and has really come into here. Pike jumps off in favour of Spritely Star, but Chris has ridden this horse before. Everything suggests that she’ll handle the conditions here and she’s one to watch. Outback Jack hasn’t been seen since March last year where he finished second in the listed Melvista. He’s drawn a bit awkwardly in barrier 10 and does have to give some of these good horses a bit of weight. He’s actually unbeaten at this distance (1:1-0-0), but look for him second up over further. Celebrity Witness seems to have just turned a corner this preparation and returned to her previous good form. She’s looking to make it three wins in a row after winning the Northam Ladies Day Cup. The form of her latest runs isn’t the strongest, but if you look back to five starts ago, she finished third to Karijini Aurora. Class and the fact that Ascot is unknown to her are my only concerns.

Suggested bet: Spritely Star and My Fury – each way

Race 6 – Brava Mento 35 Year Record Holder Handicap – 1000m – 4:05pm

2 – Triple Missile
5 – Vadette De Star
4 – Forest War
1 – Double Jeopardy

Comment: Triple Missile had a quiet trial leading into this race. He’s unbeaten first up (2:2-0-0) and at this track/distance (1:1-0-0). He does rise 4.5kg off his third in a listed race, but he has won carrying 60kg before, so 59.5kg should be ok. He’s yet to finish outside of the top three in his career (4:3-0-1) and I can’t see that changing here. Vadette De Star looks ready to go here! The form surrounding her races last preparation is good, she’s unbeaten first up (1:1-0-0) and proven at this track/distance (3:1-1-1). While she can run on to some extent, barrier 10 is slightly concerning. She’ll run a good race though! Forest War benefits from a weaker race here (besides my top two tips). He’s won first up before (4:1-0-1) and at this track/distance (7:1-1-2). He also should get a lovely position from barrier 3 and he only has to carry 57kg due to Laqdar’s claim. Form is the only thing that lets him down. Double Jeopardy really appreciated getting back to a good track last start, as that’s definitely his favourite going. His track/distance record is also in his favour too (2:0-1-0) and Pike picks up the ride. Two red flags for me are that he has to carry 60kg from barrier 11, though that barrier should help him get a forward position if they’re happy to use some energy early on. He could surprise.

Suggested bet: Triple Missile and Vadette De Star – each way

Race 7 – Furphy – R.S. Crawford Stakes – 1000m – 4:42pm

2 – Indian Pacific
4 – Stageman
3 – Flirtini
10 – River Beau

Comment: Indian Pacific has had a bit of a gap since his run in August, but he has won a trial leading into this race. He’s won first up before (4:3-0-1) and loves this track/distance (5:4-0-1). Due to the conditions of this race, he’s also quite well weighted against these horses. Watch out for him this carnival. Stageman hasn’t been seen since this time last year where he finished 7th in the Winterbottom. He’s won a trial leading into this race though and probably does his best work fresh (5:2-1-1). While he’s yet to win at this track/distance (4:0-1-2), that could change here. Flirtini just found a few better at her starts last preparation. She finished third in a trial behind Indian Pacific and has won first up before (6:2-0-2). Her track/distance record is pretty good too (2:1-0-1). From barrier 10, I suspect that they’ll go back. Hopefully, it’s not a leader bias day. River Beau was super consistent last preparation. He’s no stranger to this track/distance (12:4-3-1) and the form surrounding his runs last preparation is great. He’s probably going to be better next start but he’s good value here.

Suggested bet: Indian Pacific, Stageman, Flirtini and River Beau – each way

Race 8 – Crown Perth – Northerly Stakes – 1400m – 5:18pm

11 – Dance Music
1 – Regal Power
12 – Naughty By Nature
2 – Valour Road

Comment: Dance Music improved with each trial leading into this race. Her form is great and she’s won first up before (5:2-0-1). She’s also well weighted and with not much speed in the race and no one else looking to go forward, she’ll give them something to run down. Regal Power returns to Perth having raced in Melbourne for his last three campaigns. His first up record certainly isn’t the best (6:0-1-0) and he’s only placed at this track/distance (4:0-1-1). His trials suggest that he’s ready to bounce back here but the 60.5kg is a slight concern. He’s good value! Naughty By Nature is always a very consistent horse. She didn’t finish outside the top four last preparation, and she won a group 3. The only thing is that she’s probably definitely looking for further. She’s another value bet though. Valour Road looked to have returned to his former self last preparation, winning a group 3. It usually takes him a run or two to get going, so it’s good to see him second up here. I would have been more confident if he was racing on a soft track, but he could surprise.

Suggested bet: Dance Music, Regal Power, Naughty By Nature and Valour Road – each way

Race 9 – Amelia Park Handicap – 1400m – 5:55pm

12 – Real Charisma
5 – Em Tee Aye
6 – Beret
9 – Island Missile

Comment: Real Charisma won a trial nicely leading into this race. She’s yet to finish outside of the top 3 in her career (5:3-1-1). She’s also unbeaten at this distance (1:1-0-0) and has won at Ascot (2:1-1-0), but she is yet to face these conditions together. Barrier 10 is slightly concerning, but she does have a turn of foot. Either way, she’ll only improve off this run. Em Tee Aye was a bit disappointing first up, with nothing written in the stewards’ report. I thought stepping up in distance might help, but he remains at 1400m here and he does have a good track/distance record (4:2-0-1). His first up run was good, so hopefully, he can return to that form here. Beret steps up in distance here, which looks to suit her. She’s proven at this track/distance (2:1-1-0) and will be fit being third up. Her form could be better but she’s not without her chances. Island Missile won in a convincing fashion first up. He’s up in class and yet to place at this track/distance (2:0-0-0)

Suggested bet: Real Charisma – each way


Best Bet

Race 9 – Real Charisma

Quaddie

R6: 2, 4, 5
R7: 1, 2, 3, 4, 10
R8: 1, 2, 7, 10, 11, 12
R9: 5, 6, 12

Confidence rating

My confidence varies this week. Races 1, 3 and 7 look to be particularly nasty. Races 4, 5 and 6 look to be a battle between my top two tips too.

Last Week’s Results

Winners in top 4: 7/10
Top picks: 2nd, 1st, -, -, 1st, -, 1st, 2nd, -, 1st
Best bet: 2nd
Quaddie: no
Profit: -5.4 ($1ew on top tips & $2ew on bb)

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