Horse Racing,  Tipping

Ascot 16/05/2020

Conditions

Rail – 4m
Track – Good 4
Forecast – Max 22 degrees, mostly sunny

Race 1 – Gourmet Takeaway Plate – 1100m – 12:02pm

Sassy Trader won impressively first up, after coming off some good trials. He does rise 2kg off that run, therefore, giving some weight to these other horses, including Tiger Move who finished second to him last start. He’s drawn well again and should only improve off that first up run. Kissonallforcheeks broke her maiden at her third start. However, the two races before that were against some very good horses. She’s drawn wide and Pike jumps off (if he was offered this ride) in favour for Redhead Ritchie. However, Chris won on her last start, just over a week and a half ago and they should go well again here. Tiger Move finished second behind Sassy Trader but did run a faster 600m than him. He has interested trial form because he placed third behind Olden who then came eight behind Kissonallforcheeks (who won). He may get lost from the wide barrier but should appreciate the extra 100m. Redhead Ritchie has had the two trials over 1000m, so should have some fitness on his side. If you look at the trial times, they were a bit slow, so he might not appreciate a race if there’s lots of speed (which is hard to tell in a race with lots of maidens), however, Pike will give him every chance.
1 – Sassy Trader
6 – Kissonallforcheeks
2 – Tiger Move
5 – Redhead Ritchie

Race 2 – Perth Racing at Home Handicap – 1000m – 12:42pm

Amelia’s Contraire has been improving with each run, placing second and then winning. She’s definitely a horse with ability, but there is a slight question mark over the 60kg. She has placed second with 59.5kg though and she has great versatility on where she can sit in the race. We’ve Got Dreams was on fire towards the end of last preparation. Her first up statistics aren’t the best (7:3-0-1), but she has trialled well and Kyra is riding exceptionally well at the moment. Lording was very disappointing last start, though did race wide in that race and perhaps he didn’t handle the soft track. He’s on the one-week backup and drops back in distance which should benefit. His previous races before that were fantastic, so look for him to bounce back to his old self here. Dew West is also on the one-week backup, coming out of the same race as Lording. She keeps showing us glimpses of ability but then can’t follow it up. She likes to lead, so I’m hoping that she can jump well, seeing as there are quite a few horses wanting to lead.
1 – Amelia’s Contraire
3 – We’ve Got Dreams
5 – Lording
6 – Dew West

Race 3 – TabTouch Westspeed Platinum Handicap – 1400m – 1:22pm

Jaguar Grey finally got a win on the board last start, at this track and distance. She’s shown she has a good turn of foot, which could be valuable here. She does rise in class but then so must all good horses. Snippy Miss is a very consistent horse, finishing second at her past three starts. She’s faced some pretty good horses in those races, but the big difference here is that she has drawn wide. The fact that she likes to settle further back should mean that this isn’t a problem though. Zephyr Queen second up record is probably the best thing going for her (3:1-0-2). We really haven’t seen her at her best for a while, but she’s drawn well and only carries 58kg with Chloe’s claim. Goku is a great tip if you like a bit of value. Yes, his first up run wasn’t very good or the last run last preparation but before that he was flying, though in a lower class. He overcame barrier 10 five starts ago, so that isn’t a problem here and neither is the weight. The form surrounding his races is also not the best but I’m curious to see how he goes.
11 – Jaguar Grey
8 – Snippy Miss
3 – Zephyr Queen
7 – Goku

Race 4 – Quayclean Handicap – 1000m – 2:02pm

Miss Frost was badly interfered with within the first few hundred metres of her last start race. She was also fractious in the barriers and had to be removed, so those two factors didn’t really put her in the best mindset for the rest of the race. For those reasons, I’m willing to put a line through that race. Her previous starts have been good and she’ll be rock fit third up. Mood Swings won at his first ever start, with a nice margin. He’s had just the one trial leading into that race, so would have benefited from that start both fitness and experience wise. He faces way more experienced horses here but can win with his ability. Indigo Wild was probably in career best form at the start of the year and looks to have come back strong, placing second first up. She’s drawn better here and drops down in the weight, which should all benefit her. Her form is mostly from the country, but she does have a turn of foot and has a good second-up record (3:1-0-2). Wakan Tanka comes out of the same race as Miss Frost, finishing one place better than her. They meet the same at the weights but swap barrier position, with him drawing the inside barrier. He consistently places and should do the same here.
5 – Miss Frost
6 – Mood Swings
9 – Indigo Wild
11 – Wakan Tanka

Race 5 – Glenroy Chaff Handicap – 1800m – 2:41pm

Porphyrio steps up to the 1800m for just the second time in her career, but she’s arguable performing much better this preparation. Those good results have only been in the country and if it were a soft track, I would have been more confident, but do watch out for her. That’s Funny Az has been racing pretty well this preparation. He’s on the one week back up, in a race that he won at this track and over this distance. This will certainly be giving connections confidence but given that he looks like the obvious leader with Swift Platinum, he may have to use too much energy to get to the front from that barrier. He does only have to carry 59kg with Jade’s claim. Laufey has settle last in three of his past four starts. This was probably due to the wide barrier, so luckily he’s during an inside one here. He has faced some very good horses, so hopefully, with that form and a good ride by Pike, he could improve with the extra distance. My Fair Balentine as considered good enough by connections that they ran her in the group 3 WA Oaks. She didn’t perform very well there, but since bounced back with two fourths and a third. The distance shouldn’t be an issue and is certainly one that could surprise.
7 – Porphyrio
2 – That’s Funny Az
6 – Laufey
12 – My Fair Balentine

Race 6 – Happy 40th Travis Follows Handicap – 1000m – 3:15pm

River Beau is looking to make it three in a row. He leads the charge for Bruce Watkins, who also has another live chance in the race with Fred Dag (with Jason choosing this horse over him). However, this horse drops in weight and does have good career statistics (9:3-3-1). He has drawn wide which is a slight concern, but he should go well. Fred Dag faces another competitive race here, after finishing behind Red Can Man at his previous two starts. It is interesting that he drops back to 1000m and I do think he’s better suited over 1200-1600m. I would have been more confident if he was on a soft track and if Jason didn’t jump off, but at least he’s drawn well. Fire and Rain had a great trial after being off the scenes for 10 months but then bled from both nostrils, forcing him to take more time off. I worry that an incident like this might knock a horse’s confidence, but he looks to have come back good. If he can return to his former self than he can definitely win this. Santiago Gal is not an obvious choice for my top four, but she was in career best form prior to last start. That race was disappointing so looking for her to bounce back here. Her second up record is good (4:1-1-0) as is her track/distance record (7:2-1-0), plus she’s a great value tip if that’s what you’re after.
9 – River Beau
4 – Fred Dag
3 – Fire and Rain
8 – Santiago Gal

Race 7 – Crown Perth Handicap – 1400m – 3:50pm

She’s Alright won last start in a nice fashion, making it two wins in a row. She has a good turn of foot, which could prove lethal if she’s able to settle in a more forward position that last start. She does rise in class but does like this distance. Luke’s Gold is also coming off a win at this track and distance. He’s recorded three wins in his past five starts, so it’s hard to knock the confidence that connections will be bringing into this race. He also possesses a turn of foot and has drawn barrier one, inside She’s Alright. Definitely one to watch out for. Kelvin had a quick freshen up after coming off a win. He has great form surrounding his racing and raced in two listed races earlier in the year. He only has to carry 58.5kg with Jade’s claim which may help if he’s going to take a forward position from that barrier. Lorentinio drops in class and distance from last start, which looks to make this a very suitable race. He faced Luke’s Gold two starts ago and meets him evenly in the weights. Luke’s Gold has drawn better this time, so it’s hard to see Lorentinio turning the tables. However, he’ll get every chance.
11 – She’s Alright
13 – Luke’s Gold
4 – Kelvin
1 – Lorentinio

Race 8 – Amelia Park – Roma Cup – 1200m – 4:25pm

Vega Magic has had three incredible trials since coming back to Perth in December. However, his latest one was the most impressive, winning by 5 lengths. He was obviously flattened a bit after his runs over east but has definitely returned to his old self. Whether he’s as good as his 2017 preparation (finishing second in the Everest), we’ll have to wait and see but he’s going to give this competitive field a run for their money! Angelic Ruler was a winner last start over 1400m, however, dropping back to 1200m shouldn’t be a problem. She’s got Pike in the saddle, which is always a positive in these big races. Combined with her Melbourne form, she can win this easily. Flirtini finished third to Angelic Ruler (who finished second) two starts ago but gets 2.5kg on her here. She’s also probably slightly better suited over 1200m than Angelic Ruler, but doesn’t have that strong east form. She’s drawn well and should be able to settle into a nice position.  The Velvet King hasn’t trialled leading into this race, so it’s hard to know where he’s at, but all reports from the stable have been positive. He has a great first up record (4:2-2-0) but is probably better suited over 1400m. He’s also drawn wide which is a huge concern for me and he doesn’t have as good of form as these WA horses that have gone east. Watch out for him next start though!
2 – Vega Magic
10 – Angelic Ruler
11 – Flirtini
8 – The Velvet King

Race 9 – Western Racepix Ascot Horse of the Year Handicap – 1400m – 4:55pm

Laverrod is just a horse you’d love to own. He did get scratched at the barriers last start but has since passed a trial with flying colours. This does look to be one of his toughest races to date and I would have been more confident if he was racing over 1000-1100m. Looking for Pat Carbery and the Casey team to bookend the meeting. Festival Miss poses as a serious threat to my top pick and I tossed up for ages on whether I should swap them or not. She has more experience over Laverrod, is probably better suited over 1400m than him and comes out of some strong races. She’s also shown a fantastic turn of foot and gets Pike back in the saddle. I’m just hoping I’ve put the right horse on top. Carocapo was a little disappointing last start but did miss the start badly, so had a few excuses. Prior to that he had been racing very well and can bounce back here. The only things standing in his way are my top two picks and a slight increase in weight. Pym’s Royale is coming off a win last start. Steps up to the 1400m but placed second when racing at this distance while also carrying 60kg and also had a similar barrier. As long as Mitchell keeps him out of trouble, he can certainly surprise.
11 – Laverrod
14 – Festival Miss
4 – Carocapo
7 – Pym’s Royale


Best Bet

Race 4 – Miss Frost

Confidence rating

I’m not very confident going into this meeting. I have probably too many favourites on top and some very short ones at that. I’m mostly concerned about races 1, 7 and 9. However, I’m very excited to have The Velvet King back and I can’t wait to see what he does this preparation.

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