Horse Racing,  Tipping

Ascot 16/01/2021

Conditions

Rail – 5m
Track – Good 4
Forecast – Max 34 degrees, sunny

Race 1 – TABtouch Westspeed Platinum Maiden – 1100m – 12:43pm

Ginger Knight has been improving with each run this preparation but was no match for Wilchino and Universal Pleasure two starts ago (though this is very good form to follow). He just always seems to find a few better but has placed at this track (1:0-0-1) and distance before (1:0-0-1), but never the conditions together. The small field is definitely going to benefit him as he won’t get too far back from that wide barrier. He’s knocking on the door here for a win. Molly Magee actually comes out of the same race as Ginger Knight, finishing fifth to his third. She doesn’t get any weight on him here though. Her trials suggest that she has some ability but we’re yet to see that at the races, with no excuses in the stewards’ reports. She’s second up here for the first time and from barrier one I suspect her to be one back on the fence. The weak field is in her favour and she should only improve off this run. Tallinn is an interesting horse here, having only placed once in eight starts (8:0-1-0). The positives are that the one place was first up and he comes into this race having not run since November. That place was also at this distance, so dropping back should definitely suit him. Mitchell also rode him that day too. I’m surprised to see his odds that short, but he could surprise. Magic’s Heritage didn’t seem to handle leading last start, which is surprising given that leading is his normal racing pattern. Perhaps he had just had enough that preparation too. He comes into this race without a trial and hasn’t raced since April last year, so it’s certainly hard to tell where he’s at fitness wise. He’ll be given them something to run down though in what is a weak but even field.
2 – Ginger Knight
7 – Molly Magee
1 – Tallinn
3 – Magic’s Heritage

Race 2 – Own The Dream 2021 Launch Plate – 1100m – 1:23pm

Amelia’s Chant won a trial very nicely leading into this race, having won a trial back in November too. In a race that is full of maiden horses or horses having only their second start, I’m hoping this trial form holds up. Having Pike ride is always a positive too. The only concern is her wide barrier. Glacier Miss finished third at her first start and should only improve off that here. She’s shown she can run on but from barrier two, she should get a better position this time. Having that one race under her belt could just give her the edge here. Talkaboutyou has also won a trial leading into this race, by a good margin too, so he looks ready to go too. Like Amelia’s Chant, he’s drawn wide (outside of her) which may cause him a few problems. I wouldn’t be surprised if they were tracking each other in the race, especially as Chris is ride. This race could very well be another Parnham vs Pike. Green And Shady has been performing well at his trials. All of them have been over 400m, which suggests that 1100m shouldn’t be too short for him. Those trials don’t look to have been as strong as Amelia’s Chant and Talkaboutyou, but from a good barrier, he can win without surprising. Great value too!
7 – Amelia’s Chant
5 – Glacier Miss
4 – Talkaboutyou
2 – Green And Shady

Race 3 – Peoplestart Handicap – 1400m – 2:05pm

Last Of The Line has never placed outside of the top three in his career (5:3-0-2) and I can’t see that changing here. His races normally are quite well spaced, but he’s on the one-week backup here. He is unbeaten second up though (1:1-0-0) and has a lovely track/distance record (3:2-0-1). He’s up in class so drops 1kg off last start’s run but with his ability, this class shouldn’t be an issue. With a perfect barrier, connections will be disappointing if he’s not in the finish once again. Phoneme seems to be hitting his strides this preparation. He won a race before having a quick break, but he does go well fresh, so this isn’t too much of a concern. He can run on from midfield, which is the position I suspect he’ll take up from that barrier. He rises in class but doesn’t get any weight relief and is yet to place at this track/distance (1:0-0-0). No reason why he shouldn’t run a good race. Tycoon Storm wasn’t her usual self last start, though perhaps the 60kg just got the better of her. She drops 2kg here to 58kg, which is much better. She has drawn wide but proved four and five starts ago that she can win from there. She’s yet to win at this track/distance also (1:0-0-0) but look for her to bounce back here. Power Of St George comes out of the same race as Tycoon Storm, finishing eighth to her sixth. He did seem to get very far back and perhaps boxed in, though nothing was mentioned in the stewards’ report. He was also first up without a trial, so perhaps he needed the run fitness wise. He’s won second up before (2:1-0-1) and placed at this track/distance (1:0-0-1). At the end of last preparation, we also saw he had a good turn of foot. So, if he can get out and use that turn of foot, he could surprise. Good value bet.
8 – Last Of The Line
5 – Phoneme
4 – Tycoon Storm
7 – Power Of St George

Race 4 – Amelia Park Handicap – 1400m – 2:50pm

Giant Leap looks to be a champion in the making for Mr Peters. He went so close to winning first up but was probably brought undone by getting too far back. He’s drawn slightly better here, is unbeaten second up (1:1-0-0) and at this distance (2:2-0-0). The only thing that would make me more confident is a soft track, but he deserves to be the favourite. Western Rhythm went back to the trials after not performing at her best last start. She then won that trial so looks ready to bounce back here. Getting a senior jockey in Clint on board should help, plus she’s won at the distance before (4:1-0-1), though never at this track/distance (2:0-0-0). She’s also got a much better barrier here than last start. I just have a funny feeling about her, and this year is all about sticking to my gut. Great value! Peppijack seems to have just gotten too far back last start, so I’m willing to put a line through that run. He’s drawn a better barrier here, so he should be able to get to the front as he likes. His form prior to that could be slightly stronger as his two wins were in the country. It’s also slightly concerning that he’s yet to win at Ascot (17:0-4-1) or this track/distance (11:0-2-0). He’s on the six-day backup and may just find one better here. The Fugazi is very consistent, rarely placing outside of the top four. He usually likes to lead, but with a lot of speed in the race, he may just sit behind them. His form is probably the strongest in the race but he’s yet to win at the track/distance. However, my biggest concern is the 60.5kg, 3kg more than last start. If he can overcome this though, he can surprise.
5 – Giant Leap
10 – Western Rhythm
2 – Peppijack
1 – The Fugazi

Race 5 – Schweppes Plate – 1200m – 3:30pm

Magical Dream does like to get back in her runs, which does leave her open for trouble. She’s finally drawn a better barrier here, so hopefully, she can settle slightly further forward. Dropping down in distance and returning to a good track all should be in her favour too. She’s also unbeaten at this track/distance (1:1-0-0). Conditions look to suit and if she can use that turn of foot, she should be winning this. Hot Mix looks to be great value given that she’s yet to place outside of the top three (3:2-0-1). She hasn’t shown anything spectacular in those runs, but you can’t knock winning form. Dropping down in distance from 1400m to 1200m looks to suit, especially as she’s unbeaten at this distance (1:1-0-0). She doesn’t get much weight on horses like Magical Dream, who have placed at listed level, but at least she has a good barrier. She’s a horse on the way up and she can win this if Magical Dream isn’t at her best. Our Danni has won two races leading into this one. Her last win was from barrier eight too, so that removes the fear over one factor here. She also only has to carry 54.5kg with Carleen’s claim which makes her very competitive. My biggest concern is that I think she’s more a 1000m horse, having yet to place at 1200m (3:0-0-0). If she brings that winning form though she can make it three in a row here. Keep Your Feet seems to be a bit of a bridesmaid at the moment, just always finding one better. He does get 1.5kg on Our Danni here and given the margin last start, this could prove to be the difference. Pike jumps off in favour of Magical Dream, but as I previously said, Chris is on fire at the moment. He’s placed at Ascot (3:0-2-1) and won at this distance (3:1-1-0) but never faced these conditions together. He placed second from barrier ten last start and has good form. He rounds out a very even race!
5 – Magical Dream
11 – Hot Mix
3 – Our Danni
6 – Keep Your Feet

Race 6 – Crown Sports Bar Handicap – 2200m – 4:00pm

Treasured Crown had a few excuses last start, so I’m willing to forgive that performance. He’ll also benefit from getting a senior jockey in Pike back aboard here too and a much better barrier. Prior to last start, he had won two in a row and looks to be making his way through the grades nicely. He’s won at the track/distance (2:1-0-0) and should bounce back here. Ouqba Ted surprised a few last start even though he was coming off a win. Things seemed to have just clicked for him, winning two in a row leading into this race, both at this track/distance (4:2-0-0). He has drawn wide so may get back in the race, but he can run on to some extent. He does go up in class but doesn’t have to carry any more weight than last start due to Laqdar’s claim. He beat a few of these horses last start and can surprise here once again. The Roan Ranger has been racing in a significantly lower class than this race, but finally got a win on the board last start after seventeen starts (17:1-6-1). He seems to really appreciate these longer distances and won’t know himself with just 54.5kg on his back. He’s got a good jockey and good barrier. Another than his class, it’s hard to fault him. Good value tip. Winifer finished second behind Ouqba Ted, which looks like good form to follow. Due to Laqdar’s claim though, she does have to give him 0.5kg. Had she not gotten so far back last start though, I think she could have given him a much better run for his money. She’s drawn well here so should be able to settle slightly further forward. She hasn’t really been in form since October-December 2019, but she is proven at this track/distance (5:1-1-1). She may bounce back to that form again here.
3 – Treasured Crown
1 – Ouqba Ted
10 – The Roan Ranger
11 – Winifer

Race 7 – Seacorp Handicap – 1000m – 4:35pm

Prince Devoutly is yet to finish outside of the top three in his career (5:3-2-0) and looks to be a very good horse. Interesting to note is that his last run was September 2019, so I question (and worry) why he’s had so much time off. However, he’s won a trial leading into this race, so it suggests he’s ready to go. He usually likes to settle in the first few, but with lots of speed in the race, he may have to settle further back from that barrier. He’s won first up (2:1-1-0) and at this distance (2:1-1-0) and while he’s never raced in the city before, he’s a good chance. Weaponson finally got that Saturday win that his owners have been dreaming about, even if it was a dead heat. Due to that win and dropping down in class, he does have to carry 5kg more than last start. Plus, the barrier gods are not on our side once again, so I do worry that he’ll get back further than he’ll like. He’s a consistent little fighter and unbeaten at this track/distance (1:1-0-0), so I’m hoping he can make it back-to-back wins. Leica Jaguar has been racing really consistent this preparation and has a lot going for him here. His form is probably one of the strongest in this race, he’s drawn a good barrier, he loves to run for Chris, and he possesses a turn of foot. His track/distance record is the thing I like about him the most (7:3-2-1). The only negative is that he has to carry 3kg more than last start. He can win this. Time To Sizzle comes into this race without a trial, so it’s hard to tell where she’s at fitness wise. However, she does well fresh and has a great first up record (3:2-1-0). She also loves this track/distance (3:2-0-0). She’ll only have to carry 55kg with Madi’s claim and has drawn a good barrier. Her form could be slightly stronger but there really isn’t much to fault about her. She rounds out an even race.
4 – Prince Devoutly
1 – Weaponson
2 – Leica Jaguar
5 – Time To Sizzle

Race 8 – Miss Andretti Stakes – 1100m – 5:15pm

Indian Pacific bounced back nicely last start with a win after coming off a disappointing Winterbottom. As a result of that win, he does rise 2kg in the weights, giving some of his competitors’ weight on him. He’s drawn wide but won from the same barrier first up, so that isn’t too much of a concern. He should also get a lovely spot behind Carocapo and Mervyn. He’s never actually won at this track/distance before (1:0-0-1), but with his ability and class that can change here. Carocapo finished third to Indian Pacific last start and gets 2kg on him here. Prior to that race, he had won two in a row, so I’m surprised to see him open at $12. From barrier four he should find the front easily and he’s proven at this track/distance (3:1-1-0). He’s also got good form including beating Dig Deep two starts ago. He can be his own worst enemy but he’s a great value winning chance. Flirtini was a bit disappointing last start but seemed to get boxed in, in what was a high quality field. Prior to that she also seemed to be getting too far back. Given that she’s drawn wide here there is the chance that she’ll run into the same problems. However, she’s a classy mare, proven at this track/distance (3:1-1-0) and gets Pike back on board. Don’t rule her out. Essential Spice finished fourth to Indian Pacific last start and also gets 2kg on him. She probably just got a touch too far back to run him down, but seeing as she’s drawn barrier two here, I expect her to settle closer to the speed. Pike has jumped off in favour of Flirtini but Joey has ridden this horse to finish third before. She is yet to place at this track/distance (1:0-0-0) and does maybe look to be a 1000m horse. She could surprise.
3 – Indian Pacific
5 – Carocapo
2 – Flirtini
6 – Essential Spice

Race 9 – Quayclean Handicap – 1800m – 5:50pm

Naughty By Nature looks to be well placed here after finishing second in a group 3 last start. The conditions here are almost exactly the same as last start, except she rises 1.5kg in the weights. Give that this is a lower class race and she finished second, I think this weight increase is rather reasonable. She may be a better 1600m horse, but she has placed at this track/distance before (2:0-1-1). I’d be surprised if she wasn’t in the first few. Ration Aly bounced back to winning ways after not having the best preparation, though she did have a few excuses. She steps up to 1800m for the first time, but given that she does like to get back, this should only give her more time to catch them. She’s up in class which is a slight concern given that she didn’t handle it two starts ago, however, at least she has a good barrier. As long as she can get out and run, she can win. Crystal Valley is incredibly well weighted here, which makes her very competitive. She finished fourth to Friaresque last start and gets 2kg on him here. Her form isn’t as strong as my top two tips, but she will appreciate the step up in distance. In fact, her track/distance record is one of the main reasons I’ve got her in my top four (5:1-3-1). She’s drawn wide but can run on. She just might find one better here once again. Friaresque won last start carrying a massive 60kg. This does make the 61kg look not too bad, but add in a wide barrier this start and an extra 200m and I worry the factors are going against him. He has placed at this track/distance before (6:0-2-2) and at least he has Pike to guide him. If he can handle these factors he can win.
6 – Naughty By Nature
9 – Ration Aly
12 – Crystal Valley
1 – Friaresque


Best Bet

Race 4 – Giant Leap

Confidence rating

My confidence isn’t too bad today and I’d be disappointed if the majority of my top tips don’t finish in the top three. I guess that’s what I get for tipping lots of cerise and white. Races to watch out for though are races 1, 2, 3 (battle between top two), 7 and 9. I’m surprised that Weaponson isn’t in the top four for other tipsters and I’m hoping he can prove them wrong.

Last Week’s Results

R3-quinella
R7-exacta
Winners in top 4- 6/8
Top picks: -, -, 2nd, 1st, 3rd, 2nd, 1st, 1st
Best bet: 2nd
Profit: +6.6

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