Horse Racing,  Tipping

Ascot 15/05/2021

Conditions

Rail – 9m
Track – Good 4
Forecast – Max 23 degrees, cloudy

Race 1 – TABtouch Westspeed Platinum Handicap – 1100m – 11:54pm

1 – Pink ‘N’ Gray
4 – Miss Quoted
7 – Playing Red
5 – Bosnipp

Comment: Pink ‘N’ Gray showed a good turn of foot on a soft track last start. Conditions look to be similar here and he has placed with 60kg before. Miss Quoted finished eighth behind Pink ‘N’ Gray last start but did get a bit far back. She was racing well before that with a turn of foot, so very well could bounce back here. Playing Red performed quite well on a heavy track first up. She’s up in class but has placed at this track/distance before (1:0-0-1). Bosnipp has been a bit disappointing at her last two starts, though has had excuses in the stewards’ report. I think she’ll appreciate leading again which should easily be obtained from barrier 2.

Suggested bet: Pink ‘N’ Gray – each way

Race 2 – Amelia Park Plate – 1400m – 12:34pm

1 – Ain’t No Other Man
2 – Rommel’s Command
6 – Buzzoom
3 – Cold Shizzle

Comment: Ain’t No Other Man has faced more competitive horses. He steps up in distance, which could help him return to his winning ways. He also only has to carry 55kg with Laqdar’s claim. Rommel’s Command got his first win over this distance last start at Northam, so he is unbeaten over this distance (1:1-0-0). Things seem to have clicked for him. Buzzroom looks to be a classy horse, having yet to place outside the top three (2:1-0-1). She’s up in class and distance but should run a good race. Cold Shizzle finished second to Buzzroom’s third last start and gives her 1kg here. That was his first start, so he should only improve here with one run under his belt.

Suggested bet: Ain’t No Other Man, Rommel’s Command, Buzzoom and Cold Shizzle – each way

Race 3 – Crown Perth Handicap – 1400m – 1:14pm

9 – Billy Ray
1 – Son Son
5 – Mini Winnie
2 – Sowar

Comment: Billy Ray finally got his maiden win at start number six. He perhaps could have appreciated the soft track (1:1-0-0) which he should get here (track has now been upgraded to a good 4). I just hope he doesn’t get too far back or boxed in from barrier 10. Son Son is yet to place outside the top three in his career (6:3-2-1). He handles the soft (2:1-1-0) and loves this distance (3:2-1-0). It’s hard to fault him. Mini Winnie had excuses in the stewards’ report last start so I’m willing to forgive that run. He was racing well before that and last start was his first time outside the top three for this distance (4:2-1-0). He can bounce back here. Sowar just ticks along nicely as long as he doesn’t get too far back and stuck in traffic. He did show a good turn of foot last start though and should get an ideal run from barrier 6.

Suggested bet: Billy Ray, Son Son and Mini Winnie – each way

Race 4 – 2021 Australian Racing Hall Of Fame Inductees Handicap – 1600m – 1:54pm

1 – That’s Funny Az
6 – Bruce Almighty
2 – Not To Be Mist
4 – Adornment

Comment: That’s Funny Az tasted defeat last start after winning four in a row previously. He’s unbeaten at this track/distance (2:2-0-0) and has won on a soft track before (7:2-0-1). He also only has to carry 58kg due to Madi’s claim which puts him back in the race. Bruce Almighty has been racing really consistently besides that one hiccup four starts ago. He’s up ever so slightly in distance but there’s no reason why he shouldn’t handle the conditions.  The only concern is the one-week backup. Not To Be Mist is hit and miss but did win last start, beating Watch Me Dance in the process. He got the ideal run there, so I’m interested to see how he does here. Adornment really hasn’t been herself this preparation. I still reckon she’s looking for more distance, but she has won over 1600m before (3:1-0-0). Maybe Pike can help her bounce back.

Suggested bet: That’s Funny Az and Bruce Almighty – each way

Race 5 – World Class Breast Cancer Research Handicap – 1100m – 2:33pm

8 – Graceful Girl
1 – Hot Zed
3 – Mystical View
5 – Divine Pair

Comment: Graceful Girl is yet to finish outside of the top three (4:2-0-2). She’s first up here but has placed first up before (1:0-0-1) and won a trial leading into this race. She’ll only improve next start. Hot Zed is the definition of consistency! He’s got good form behind Magical Dream last start, but that was eight weeks ago. The time off without a trial plus the 60kg does make this race a big ask. Mystical View has the best form in this race, placing at listed level. She’s unbeaten first up (2:2-0-0) and only has to carry 55kg due to Laqdar’s claim. I just would have liked to have seen a bit more from her at her trials. Divine Pair beat Son Son last start which looks to be good form. This horse is definitely a wet tracker, so connections will be hoping the track stays in the soft range. He’s unbeaten at this track/distance (1:1-0-0) and is a great value chance.

Suggested bet: Graceful Girl, Hot Zed, Mystical View and Divine Pair – each way

Race 6 – Something Pink Kalgoorlie Handicap – 1000m – 3:15pm

7 – Acromantula
4 – Panzdown
2 – Long Beach
6 – This’ll Testya

Comment: Acromantula is looking to make it three wins in a row. He’s up in class and probably facing his toughest test yet but he is unbeaten at this track/distance (3:3-0-0) and on a soft track (2:2-0-0). Panzdown is looking for his fourth win in a row. He’s unbeaten at this track/distance (2:2-0-0) and has a nearly faultless soft track record (4:3-1-0). No reason why he can’t win this. Long Beach really hasn’t shown much at his trials. However, he has a good first up record (3:2-1-0) and has won on a soft track before (4:1-1-0). He also only has to carry 59kg with Laqdar’s claim, which puts him back in the race. I guess we’ll just have to see which horse turns up. This’ll Testya was a bit disappointing first up, with no excuses written in the stewards’ report. Her second up record is better (2:1-0-1) and she has placed at this distance before (2:0-1-0). This is an incredibly even race though!

Suggested bet: Acromantula, Panzdown and Long Beach – each way

Race 7 – Professor Arlene Chan Handicap – 2200m – 3:50pm

1 – Come Right Back
2 – Final Chill
7 – Secret Pearl
5 – Mosseratti

Comment: Come Right Back is coming off a win over this distance. Surprisingly he isn’t penalised in the weights though, only carrying 58kg thanks to Laqdar’s claim. He should put in another good performance. Final Chill was a bit disappointing last start, but nothing was written in the stewards’ report. He’s on the one-week backup but does love these longer distances. Look for him to bounce back here. Secret Pearl finished second to Come Right Back last start and gets 1.5kg on him here. I do worry she’ll get back from that barrier, but she does love this track/distance (4:2-1-1). Mosseratti is consistently in the first few. Conditions do look to suit, though he’s yet to win at this track/distance (11:0–3-3). He finished fourth to Come Right Back which looks to be the form to follow.

Suggested bet: Come Right Back, Final Chill, Secret Pearl and Mosseratti – each way

Race 8 – Breast Cancer Research Centre Of WA – Roma Cup – 1200m – 4:25pm

3 – Elite Street
6 – Cup Night
7 – Massimo
14 – Dance Music

Comment: Elite Street did win the Winterbottom last year. He didn’t handle Melbourne at all but if he has returned to his former self, which is unbeaten at this track/distance (1:1-0-0), he should be right in the finish. Cup Night won a key lead up race in the Northam Stakes. He showed a good turn of foot there which should help him overcome the wide barrier here. He’ll only improve second up. Massimo didn’t have a lot of luck in the Northam Stakes where he finished sixth (though only 2.1L off the winner). He loves this track/distance (3:2-1-0) and he should get a better run from barrier 3. Dance Music won a group three last preparation, so should be right in this race. Her trial leading into this race was good and she also loves this track/distance (6:2-2-1). She’ll only improve next start over slightly more distance and having a run under her belt. This is a group 1 quality race!

Suggested bet: Elite Street, Cup Night, Massimo and Dance Music – each way

Race 9 – Quayclean Handicap – 1200m – 5:00pm

2 – Charleton Eddie
1 – Nerodio
4 – Moschard
7 – Naughty By Nature

Comment: Charleton Eddie finished third last start in a higher class. Conditions look to really suit him here, with a good track/distance record (3:1-1-1). He should easily find the front from barrier 2 too. Nerodio is very consistent and has good form behind Miss Conteki. He only has to carry 58kg due to Laqdar’s claim which puts him back in the race. He’s actually yet to win at this track/distance (5:0-0-4) but this could change here. Moschard loves to get back in his runs and I suspect this will happen again from barrier 9. He does have a turn of foot to combat this and also has good form lines. There is a slight question mark over the one-week backup, and I think he may be looking for slightly more distance though to get another win on the board. Naughty By Nature finished second to Dance Music last start which is good form based on the previous race. Her trial leading into this race was good and she has won first up before (3:1-0-1). Value chance.

Suggested bet: Charleton Eddie, Nerodio, Moschard and Naughty By Nature – each way


Best Bet

Race 4 – That’s Funny Az

Confidence rating

It is a tipster nightmare this week! There isn’t one race that I’m completely confident about. Races 6 and 8 even got a double exclamation mark on the word “avoid” when I was typing my notes. It didn’t help that I thought the track would be on the soft side too.

Last Week’s Results

R2-boxed first 4
R9-quinella
Winners in top 4- 8/9
Top picks: -, 2nd, -, -, 1st, 1st, -, 1st, 2nd
Best bet: 2nd
Profit: -3.9 ($1ew on top tips & $2ew on bb)

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