Ascot 15/02/2020

Conditions

Rail – 1m
Track – Good 4
Forecast – Max 28 degrees, partly cloudy

Race 1 – TabTouch Westspeed Platinum Maiden – 1400m – 12:57pm

Forgotten Jewel is a maiden in this race but has had two trials, for a second and a win. He may be needing the experience but is definitely one to watch going forward. Trade Fair Express has been unlucky/outclassed this preparation, running third every start.  He’s yet to win a race for seven starts and would have preferred a softer track, but definitely gets his chance here. Diamond Trade finished off well last start after being disappointing first up. She steps up to the 1400m again and is yet to win from seven starts (7:0-3-1). Peggie’s Joy only gets into my top four with the scratching of I Hope You Dance. She hasn’t really shown much and is yet to place in four runs yet has finished fourth in two of those. She may be able to improve if she can settle towards the front from that barrier.
6 – Forgotten Jewel
1 – Trade Fair Express
8 – Diamond Trade
10 – Peggie’s Joy

Race 2 – D’Orsogna Maiden – 1100m – 1:37pm

Secait was a bit hit and miss last preparation, but she seems to be flying now, having won two trials over 1000m leading into this race. Oilskin also won two trials leading into its first race before a disappointing finish. He should benefit from the run and hopefully won’t spend too much energy this time trying to lead. Nelly Zane came third last preparation in her only career start. Her trial wasn’t anything mind-blowing but could be one of those consistent horses. Eristic is a hit a miss horse but is good when he’s good. He came third last start at Albany (with perhaps the blinkers making the difference) and has placed third at this distance before (1:0-0-1).
7 – Secait
4 – Oilskin
10 – Nelly Zane
1 – Eristic

Race 3 – Vert De Grece Yearlings Plate – 1000m – 2:17pm

Sunnysilk is yet to win a race yet as shown so much potential. She gets another chance here, with experience over many of these other horses. Guarded finished fourth to Dom To Shoot last start after coming off some nice trials. He gets 2kg on Dom To Shoot (who has now been scratched) and a better barrier this time. He’s a serious threat to my top pick. Off Wego won a trial last preparation but then never made it to the races (perhaps went shinsore). Finished third in his only trial leading into this race and will need all of Pike’s skills to ensure he doesn’t get lost from that wide barrier. Janaura is one the one week backup, coming out of the 2-year-old Magic Millions race. Seemed to have lost a bit of momentum in the straight when getting bumped but connections are obviously confident of her ability if they entered her in that, as she only came second in the race before.
7 – Sunnysilk
2 – Guarded
6 – Off Wego
8 – Janaura

Race 4 – Seacorp Handicap – 1000m – 2:55pm

Some Sort had a quiet trial behind Railway Stakes winner Regal Power. His first up record is good (2:1-0-0) but can’t knock this horse’s ability. He’ll be given them something to run down for sure! Transgressor is a winner for two in a row and three out of four starts. He’ll be finding the front with Some Sort and it will be interesting to watch these two battle it down the straight. Illustrious Tycoon seemed to have paid the cost of carrying the 61kg last start, with him not being able to improve his fourth position throughout the race. He doesn’t get a better barrier here but is back to 57kg here. He has a great second up record too (1:1-0-0). Plutocracy is always there but can’t quite get the chocolates. He has shown a turn of foot in previous races, but it would be nice to see him settle further forward in his races.
9 – Some Sort
2 – Transgressor
6 – Illustrious Tycoon
7 – Plutocracy

Race 5 – Cyril Flower Stakes – 1200m – 3:30pm

Flower of War is on the one-week backup but she’s simply just flying at the moment, having won three out her four previous races. She gets a good barrier here and won’t know herself with 54kg. Valour Road has the best form but has to carry the 60kg because of it. If he doesn’t jump well, he may find himself too far back. However, he did finish second last start in a listed race carrying 60kg. He’ll need to be performing at his best and need the best of Pike but can definitely surprise here. Floyd wasn’t at his best last preparation but has trialled nicely leading into this race (winning that trial) and has a great first up record (6:1-4-0). Don’t Fuss looks to have got stuck in traffic (without having watched the replay). He would have preferred a softer track but does bring listed form lines.
6 – Flower of War
1 – Valour Road
7 – Floyd
5 – Don’t Fuss

Race 6 – Challenge Stakes – 1500m – 4:10pm

Superstorm doesn’t have the form like Tuscan Queen but I’m backing Pike’s decision to go with this horse. Plus, he gets a 3kg on her despite being her in the Kingston Town, where they met last. Tuscan Queen’s turn of foot was simply breathtaking in the Champion Fillies race but she failed to back that up in the Kingston Town. She also came last in her only trial leading into this race but would only need to bring half of her ability to be winning here. Montelena has the new addition of earmuffs during the whole race and should only improve off a second to Money Matters last start (a listed race). Just needs to bring her manners to match her ability. Naughty By Nature went from last to first, with this horse certainly one to watch going forward.
2 – Superstorm
1 – Tuscan Queen
5 – Montelena
7 – Naughty By Nature

Race 7 – Amelia Park Handicap – 1500m – 4:45pm

Adornment drops significantly in class, having raced in the 2019 Oaks and Derby. She has had nearly 12 months off from racing but looks to have come back good in two nice and quiet trials. Patristic is in career best form. He’ll be given them all something to run down and may very well win if they’re winning from the front. He’s a serious threat to my top pick. Media Baron won last start, beating Serenity Bay in the process, who is a very good horse. His turn of foot is fantastic, and he may be needing that here if he gets back from that wide barrier. Utgard Loki is in a similar position as Adornment but he does have one race under his belt. He seems to have some ability (6:1-2-0) so look for him to improve here.
8 – Adornment
6 – Patristic
3 – Media Baron
12 – Utgard Loki

Race 8 – Heineken 3 Handicap – 3yo Classic – 1400m – 5:20pm

Special Choice raced well in the last spring/summer, including a fourth in a group 3 and group 2. She drops down in class here and gets Pike back, all of which should benefit. Playing Marika won last start and continues here good run. She’s previously shown a great turn of foot at Pinjarra, which will be useful here to overcome that wide barrier. Sauvegarde has been racing consistently but she may be better suited over shorter distances. Too Fat Too Slow has had two last placed trials but has shown he’s way better than that in his previous three starts. He’s definitely one to go for if you love value.
9 – Special Choice
5 – Playing Marika
14 – Sauvegarde
11 – Too Fat Too Slow

Race 9 – Crown Perth Handicap – 2100m – 5:55pm

Barbie Will Do is on the one-week backup after an ok run last start. She did beat Montelena five starts ago which looks to be good form. She also seems too possess a good turn of foot as long as she doesn’t get stuck in traffic. Proven at this distance so should go well. Defiantly is improving with each run and she has won at the distance before (2:1-0-0). Volkswagon Frank has been performing well at 2200m in his past two starts and steps back to the 2100m, a distance he’s never raced at before. He’s also yet to place at this track (3:0-0-0). Connections will be hoping Pike can work his magic. Musical Art is just getting too far back in her runs. He should be fit third up here but may not be able to settle further forward from that barrier.
2 – Barbie Will Do
5 – Defiantly
11 – Volkswagon Frank
3 – Musical Art

Best Bet

Race 5 – Flower of War

Confidence rating

Haha I think I tip better when I don’t have time to study the form and start second guessing myself. My biggest worries today are race 1, 3 and 7, going with my gut though and crossing everything that it’s right.