Ascot 15/01/2022

Conditions

Rail – 11m
Track – Good 4
Forecast – Max 27 degrees, sunny

Race 1 – Magic Millions Plate – 1200m – 12:43pm

9 – Lucky Sue
6 – The Great Hoya
2 – El Patron
8 – Upper Limits

Comments: Lucky Sue narrowly tasted defeat last weekend. She’ll probably be midfield again from barrier 7 but look for her to go one better here. The Great Hoya won a trial leading into this race by a good margin. His trials have only been over 400m, so we’re yet to see him stretch out, but this distance shouldn’t be too short for him. He’s good value. El Patron has had two nice trials leading into this race. He looks to have ability and will take great improvement off this run. Upper Limits has trialled well without winning. he has drawn wide here, but Pike takes the ride in an open race.

Suggested bet: Lucky Sue, The Great Hoya, El Patron and Upper Limits – each way

Race 2 – Amelia Park Plate – 1200m – 1:23pm

4 – Trix Of The Trade
1 – He’s A Sizzler
2 – Beads
3 – Bopping Blue

Comment: Trix Of The Trade comes to Ascot and a good track from the first time. He brings different form lines to races but is unbeaten first up (1:1-0-0) and has a great track/distance record (3:2-1-0). He’s A Sizzler finished third behind Bopping Blue and Beads last start. He had no luck in the straight but didn’t finish that far off them. He can turn the tables here. Beads is racing really consistently at the moment and looks to get another ideal run here. He steps up in distance but he’s hard to fault. Bopping Blue has improved with each run this preparation, getting a win on the board last start, beating Beads and Bopping Blue. He has to give them 1.5kg here and he races over 1200m for the first time. He’ll give them something to run down.

Suggested bet: Trix Of The Trade, He’s A Sizzler, Beads and Bopping Blue – each way

Race 3 – TABtouch Westspeed Platinum Handicap – 1200m – 2:05pm

3 – Kick A Goal Son
1 – Express Time
2 – Wine Night
4 – Fiery Water

Comment: Kick A Goal Son is up in class after coming off a win at Pinjarra. He’s placed at this track/distance (1:0-0-1) and he has a good turn of foot. Express Time can be hit and miss but only has to carry 59.5kg with Laqdar’s claim here. She narrowly got beaten last start and she’ll be giving them something to run down. The 1200m may just be a touch too far for her though (2:0-0-0). Wine Night comes out of the same race as Express Time. She missed the jump which didn’t help her chances, so hopefully, she’s on her best behaviour here. Fiery Water trialled nicely and goes well fresh up. His distance record could be better (5:1-0-1), but he’ll have the best chance with Pike riding.

Suggested bet: Kick A Goal Son and Express Time – each way

Race 4 – Belhus Racing Stables Handicap – 1000m – 2:50pm

4 – Pink Carats
1 – Vane Tempest
2 – Bedouin Belle
7 – Mombasa

Comment: Pink Carats has improved with each run this preparation and should be peaking third up here. His track/distance record is his biggest advantage (3:1-2-0) and he’ll get a lovely spot from barrier 6. His form could be better, but he should go well here. Vane Tempest has had a gap since her last run, but she does go well fresh and only has to carry 58.5kg with Victoria’s claim. She’s knocking on the door for a win. Bedouin Belle really appreciated the step down in class last start. She only has to carry 57kg here due to Holly’s claim, which will hopefully, see her improve her not so good track/distance record (6:0-1-0). Mombasa showed a great turn of foot back in November with his only career win (6:1-0-0). I’m not sure why that was his only start that preparation and he hasn’t trialled leading into this race. If he brings that turn of foot again, he can surprise at good value.

Suggested bet: Pink Carats, Vane Tempest, Bedouin Belle and Mombasa – each way

Race 5 – Ascend Sales Trophies Handicap – 1400m – 3:30pm

1 – Billy Ain’t Silly
6 – Big Screen
9 – Sentimental Queen
4 – Picture Perfect

Comment: Billy Ain’t Silly was disappointing first up, with nothing major written in the stewards’ report. He’s unbeaten second up (2:2-0-0) and at this track/distance (2:2-0-0), plus only has to carry 58.5kg with Laqdar’s claim. Look for him to bounce back here. Big Screen is super consistent at the moment. He’s placed at this track/distance (2:0-1-0) and will easily get to the front from barrier 1. I just hope him and Billy Ain’t Silly don’t burn each other out too early. Sentimental Queen’s trial looked to be disappointing on paper, but it actually wasn’t too bad. She has a good first up record (4:2-1-0) and is unbeaten at this track/distance (1:1-0-0). She’s a good each way chance at good odds. Picture Perfect trialled nicely and looks to be in for another good preparation. He has won over this distance (3:1-0-0), but there’s no doubt that he’ll be looking for further.

Suggested bet: Billy Ain’t Silly, Big Screen and Sentimental Queen – each way

Race 6 – Striker Indoor Sports Leeming Handicap – 1500m – 4:05pm

6 – Fashion Queen
7 – Great Charade
4 – Mr Mt Walker
1 – Ginger Baker

Comment: Fashion Queen showed a great turn of foot last start but was just too far back to catch the winner. She should settle slightly further forward here and go one better. 6 is my lucky racing number, so I was excited when I put horse 6 on top in race 6. Great Charade looks to be well suited to the conditions here, especially has he’s unbeaten at this track/distance (1:1-0-0). His form could be better, but he’ll get a nice run from barrier 4. Mr Mt Walker is hit and miss, but his last run was probably his best this preparation. He should be spot on fitness wise here, but his track record is concerning (6:0-0-0). Ginger Baker has just gotten too far back in his past 2 runs and this has reflected in his results. He’s drawn barrier 12 here, so I worry that he’ll get back again. I’m not sure he’s a fan of Ascot too (3:0-0-0). He’s a watch and see.

Suggested bet: Fashion Queen – each way

Race 7 – Schweppes Handicap – 1500m – 4:45pm

2 – Cheval De Vaga
6 – Trade War
10 – Pro Is Here
3 – Downforce

Comment: Cheval De Vaga is coming off a really nice win and is looking to make it 4 wins in a row. He’s never officially raced over 1500m, but his results over 1400-1600m suggest that he should handle it and Pike picks up the ride. Being down in class and up in the weights is the only concern. Trade War finished second to Cheval De Vaga and gets 3.5kg on him here. He’s really improved this preparation and he can run on from barrier 10. He can turn the tables here. Pro Is Here has pretty good career results, with his only time outside the top 3 being at his first career start. He comes to the city for the first time and is significantly up in class. He’ll give them something to run down at good odds though. Downforce also comes out of Cheval De Vaga, with this horse finishing third. He’s always near the finish but can’t quite get the chocolates. It looks to be a similar case for this race.

Suggested bet: Cheval De Vaga, Trade War and Pro Is Here – each way

Race 8 – Heineken 3 Handicap – 1800m – 5:20pm

7 – Chili Is Hot
1 – Bogart
6 – Beat The Bro
5 – Big Bada Boom

Comment: Chili Is Hot looks to be needing more distance, but her run last start over 1800m was good. Dropping down in class looks to suit and she should run a good race. Bogart is coming off a good win where he showed a good turn of foot. He steps up in distance to one he’s placed over at Ascot (2:0-2-0) and Pike jumps back on board. The only concern is that he has to carry 60kg. Beat The Bro was a touch disappointing last start, but looked to have gotten too far back, so just put a line through that run. He has drawn wide again here, but he’s placed at this track/distance (1:0-1-0). He can bounce back here. Big Bada Boom looked to have needed the run first up, though he’s had nearly 4 weeks since that run, so I do question why that is the case. He’s placed second up (2:0-2-0) and won at this track/distance (3:1-1-0). There’s no reason why he can’t run a good race.

Suggested bet: Chili Is Hot, Bogart, Beat The Bro and Big Bada Boom – each way

Race 9 – Miss Andretti Stakes – 1100m – 5:55pm

6 – Miss Conteki
8 – Clairvoyance
4 – Hot Zed
9 – Iseered Iseered

Comment: Miss Conteki just flew home last start to win. She’s unbeaten at this distance (1:1-0-0) and has a good second up record (3:2-0-0). Chris picked this mare over Clairvoyance and I worry that her last 600m times may be too good. Clairvoyance is back and I’m excited! Her trial was impressive and she looks to have returned to her old form. The few concerns for me are that the only time she hasn’t won was first up and at this track/distance. This is also a test of whether she has truly recovered from her injuries. Her overall times are faster than Miss Conteki and with not much speed in the race, she should be able to just roll along in front. I’d love for her to win but I just hope she runs a good and safe race. Hot Zed is coming off a good win where Chris was riding him. This horse is unbeaten at this track/distance (1:1-0-0) and looks to get the run of the race behind Clairvoyance. He can surprise at good odds. Iseered Iseered couldn’t quite match it to them in the Winterbottom, but it’s hard to ignore his previous form. He drops 4.5kg off the Winterbottom run and he’s won at this track/distance (3:2-0-0). He can bounce back here.

Suggested bet: Miss Conteki and Clairvoyance – each way

Race 10 – Crown Sports Bar Handicap – 1200m – 6:25pm

5 – Universal Pleasure
1 – This’ll Testya
8 – Solid Azza
7 – Vital Blast

Comment: Universal Pleasure is hit and miss but put in a good run last start. This distance looks to be her favourite and she has a good track/distance record (5:1-2-0). Look for her to go one better here. This’ll Testya has been racing well since joining Mitchell’s stable. She only has to carry 57kg here due to Holly’s claim. I do question whether she’s a better 1000m horse, but she should be in the finish once again. Solid Azza is coming off a midweek win. She can get back in her races but is no stranger to this track/distance (9:2-0-2). This very open race to end the day will suit her. Vital Blast improved last start after having a tonne of excuses first up. He’s no stranger to this track/distance (8:1-1-1) and should be peaking fitness wise being third up.

Suggested bet: Universal Pleasure, This’ll Testya, Solid Azza and Vital Blast – each way

Best Bet

Race 6 – Fashion Queen

Quaddie

R7: 2, 6, 10
R8: 1, 5, 6, 7
R9: 6, 8
R10: 1, 3, 5, 7, 8

Confidence rating

My confidence is at an all time low and there’s not one race where I’m sure that I’ve picked the winner. Races 1 and 10 I’d just avoid completely, while I’m hoping I’m wrong in race 9 as I’d love to see Clairvoyance win. It looks to be a carnival days’ worth of racing.

Last Week’s Results

R7:quinella
Winners in top 4: 5/9
Top picks: 2nd, -, -, -, 1st, -, 2nd, 3rd, –
Best bet: –
Quaddie: No
Profit: -8.1 ($1ew on top tips & $2ew on bb)