Ascot 14/11/2020

Conditions

Rail – 9m
Track – Soft 7
Forecast – Max 22 degrees, showers

Race 1 – Tabtouch Westspeed Platinum Series Heat 3 – 1400m – 12:29pm

Western Rhythm is yet to place outside of the top three in her career (4:1-2-1) and is nicely making her way through the grades. She went into her first up race without a trial and still finished second, so I expect her to only improve off that run. Conditions look to suit as she’s won at this distance before (2:1-0-1) and is unbeaten on a soft track (1:1-0-0). Conditions combined with her turn of foot make her a serious player in the race. Just hoping she doesn’t get stuck in traffic from that barrier. Melarab looks to have really improved and matured this time in, winning two trials and a race leading into this race. He steps down in distance from last start’s win and while he’s yet to even place at this distance (2:0-0-0), both attempts were last preparation and as I said, he’s improved heaps since then. With Beaux’s claim, he only has to carry 54kg and he should find the front easily with Scooter’s Machine. He’ll be giving them something to run down and will be competitive if he repeats last start’s performance. Glamour Packed has only really put in the one bad race this preparation, which was last start after getting too far back and racing wide throughout, so few excuses there. She does like to race from the back so even though she’s drawn nicely in barrier three, I do worry that she might get herself into a bit of trouble. Due to the drop-in class, she also rises 2kg off last start’s run. The biggest thing in her advantage is that she does love a soft track (2:1-1-0) and has placed at this distance before (3:1-1-0). Great value place bet. Porphyrio was racing incredibly well last preparation, never finishing outside the top three except for her last run in which she’d clearly had enough. She comes into this race without a trial, so it’s a bit hard to tell where she’s at fitness wise, which would have been handy because her first up record isn’t the best (3:0-0-1). She’s also yet to win over this distance (2:0-2-0) but she does appreciate the soft track (5:1-0-3). She’ll only improve next start, especially if they step her out over 1600m. Don’t rule her out here though.
11 – Western Rhythm
8 – Melarab
3 – Glamour Packed
6 – Porphyrio

Race 2 – Amelia Park Handicap – 1200m – 1:09pm

Beau Zoom has been racing well this preparation, recording a very convincing win first up and was brave it defeat second up, where the 60kg looked to just get the better of him. He drops 4.5kg off that run due to the rise in class. He’s also unbeaten at this track/distance (1:1-0-0), though connections would be more confident if he was racing on a good track. I feel that the soft track may just leave him a bit vulnerable, though he has placed on a soft track before (3:0-1-1). The wide barrier may also be a slight problem as he usually likes to settle in the first few, so he might have to use a bit of energy early on to get that position. He’s a horse on the way up and has relished the sea change to WA! Home In Five had a lot of bad luck second up where he got blocked the entire straight. Considering he won a race either side of that run, I would just put a line through it. He’s another horse that drops 3.5kg due to the rise in class. I feel like if anything is going to be his undoing, it’s going to be the class and how many good horses there are. However, his two wins have been by good margins and he’s won on a soft track before (1:1-0-0). He’s definitely a winning chance, especially with barrier one, as long as he jumps well. Tajmali is coming off a win and has been improving with each start this preparation. She looks to be the leader in this race, which shouldn’t be too hard to achieve from that barrier as long as she jumps well. She only has to carry 56kg with Laqdar’s claim which puts her back in the race and she has won at this track/distance before (2:1-1-0). Her soft track record is the main reason she’s this far down my list (4:1-0-0). Kitgum showed a good turn of foot first up when finishing third behind Comes A Time. He was first up there, so should only improve second up, though he’s yet to place second up (1:0-0-0). His form from the country is good, but this is definitely a tougher race. He’s placed at this track/distance before (3:0-1-1) but is untested on a soft track. May just find one better here.
8 – Beau Zoom
5 – Home In Five
1 – Tajmali
4 – Kitgum

Race 3 – Tony Favazzo 30yrs @ Perth Racing – 1000m – 1:49pm

Eeyore Wayz drops back in class after finishing sixth in the group 3 Prince of Wales. He really didn’t finish that far off the leader and isn’t penalised in the weights at all here. Three-quarters of his wins have come over this distance (4:3-0-0), though he’s yet to place at this track/distance (1:0-0-0). His breath-taking turn of foot with incredible last 600m times will be his deadly weapon, with his turn of foot being even more effective on a soft track (3:2-0-1). He’ll make his mark here for sure. Resortman is starting his carnival preparation in this race. He’s had two trials leading into this race, with his latest one being extra impressive. Both of those trials were over 1000m, so while he’s yet to official race at this distance, he should be fine. He’s unbeaten at Ascot (1:1-0-0) and first up (2:2-0-0) plus he does run well on a soft track (2:1–0-1). The wide barrier is a concern, especially as he does like to lead, but I’d be surprised if he wasn’t in the finish. Wine Night comes into this race without a trial, however, she is unbeaten first up (2:2-0-0). She only had the one bad run last preparation, with nothing to really come out of the wash there. That was on a soft track, so those conditions here is a bit of a concern. She loves this distance (3:1-2-0) and has placed at this track/distance before (1:0-1-0). Given her barrier and weight with that first up record, I’m surprised to see her open at $23. Express Time is coming off a win, though I would say that her races don’t have the strongest form surrounding them like some of these other horses. However, you should never knock winning form. She drops 3.5kg off last start’s run due to the rise in class and the soft track is definitely in her favour (2:1-0-1). She’s won at this track/distance before (3:1-0-1) and really doesn’t have much to complain about. Don’t rule her out.
2 – Eeyore Wayz
5 – Resortman
6 – Wine Night
11 – Express Time

Race 4 – Crown Towers Handicap – 1400m – 2:28pm

Position Of Power normally does well when settling in the first few, but he certainly didn’t seem to appreciate leading last start. There are no other obvious leaders in the race, besides Trade Talk, so given his inside barrier, he may find himself either taking a sit behind Trade Talk or leading, which wouldn’t be ideal. My other concern is that he has been racing since May and maybe last start was just a sign that he’s had enough this preparation. What is in his favour is his soft track record (7:2-3-1), with this being one of the biggest deciding factors for him going on top. He’s won at this track/distance before (5:1-1-0) and Paul Harvey jumps on board who this horse loves. He should go well and is at great odds. Cambist has faced much better company than my top tip, which does make her a threat. She comes into this race without a trial but does have a good first up record (3:1-1-1). She’s drawn wide but has proven she can win from out there, though that race was over a long distance. She won over 1200m this time last year, but I do think this may be a touch too short for her and she’ll definitely only improve as she steps up in distance. Her soft track record also isn’t as good as my top tip (2:0-1-0). Class could see her winning this though. She’s Alight had a few excuses in the stewards’ report, but she really hasn’t been racing as well as she did last preparation. She did come into this preparation without a trial, so perhaps she needed those two runs for fitness. She does like to run on from the rear of the field, which does always leave the door open from problems. She’s drawn wide here so I do think she’ll be taking up a similar position. She likes this track/distance (5:2-0-1) and has placed on a soft track before (2:0-1-1), so conditions look to suit. If she can get out and use that turn of foot, she can surprise. Kelvin is a horse that I’m surprised to see at such short odds. He did draw wide last start and probably had to use some energy early on to take up the leader, yet he finished third in a race that has good form. He’s drawn a much better barrier here and drops 2.5kg off that run due to the rise in class. There are a couple of red flags for me, including that he’s never won at this track/distance (4:0-0-3) or second up (2:0-0-1). At least he can handle a soft track (5:1-1-1). At those sorts of odds though I just couldn’t have him.
8 – Position Of Power
9 – Cambist
11 – She’s Alight
7 – Kelvin

Race 5 – R.J. Peters Stakes – 1500m – 3:08pm

Truly Great is two for two this preparation, with great career statistics too (9:5-2-0). Last start’s win was over 1800m, so it’s interesting to see him drop back to 1500m here. He did win a trial this preparation over 1200m, so the 1500m doesn’t look to be too short for him. He has a great barrier and very competitive weight of just 54kg. The small query is that he’s yet to win on a soft track (2:0-2-0), but with his ability I think that can change here. True Attraction has a few excuses last start after getting too far back, coming from last to finish midfield. He’s drawn a better barrier here, so hopefully won’t get as far back this time. Interesting to note that Chris picked Truly Great over him though. However, compared to his fellow cerise and white horse, he has a much better soft track record (4:3-1-0) and is unbeaten at this track/distance (1:1-0-0), with the distance, in particular, looking to suit him a lot better. I wouldn’t be surprised at all to see a cerise and white quinella here. The Fugazi could be the dark horse in this race. He finished fourth last start but wasn’t too far behind the winner, plus he had to be steadied in that race too. It was also his first up run for this preparation, so I do expect him to improve off that here. His second up record is good (3:1-1-0) and he does his best work on a soft track (3:2-1-0). He’s never actually raced over 1500m, but his performances over 1400m and 1600m do suggest that he should handle it. He may just find the cerise and white too classy, but he’s a great place value bet. Flow is certainly a hit and miss horse, finishing second, thirteenth and then second at his past three runs. Those two seconds were for Mitchell, so I’m thinking that perhaps this horse likes to run for him. That thirteenth placing was in the Northerly too and he probably got a touch further back than he would have liked. The smaller field and good barrier should benefit him, and connections won’t be too concerned if the track is a little choppy by now. It’s going to take luck and a career best performance to beat my top tip though.
9 – Truly Great
8 – True Attraction
7 – The Fugazi
1 – Flow

Race 6 – Seacorp – Ascot Gold Cup – 1800m – 3:45pm

Too Close The Sun is coming off a really good first up run in the group 3 Asian Beau, where he finished second behind Inspirational Girl, which is good enough form in itself. He’s second up here with a very good second up record (3:2-0-1) and stepping up in distance should definitely help improve his chances too. There’s not a lot of speed in this race, so from the wide barrier they may decide to go forward on him. He’s unbeaten on a soft track (3:3-0-0) and will be looking to run well here if they’re to go towards some of the key races this carnival. Double Digit is coming off two wins, though they were both over 2200m, so it’s interesting to see that he drops down in distance here. His record over this track/distance isn’t as good (5:0-0-2), though he does handle a soft track (11:1-2-2). He has the class, but I think he’s better over further. Royal Command looks to be making his way towards another Perth Cup. Given that he does like further, it was surprising to see him finish second first up over 1400m. That run was also his first race since the Perth Cup in January, so he should only improve off it fitness wise. Improvement is also reinforced by his second up record (5:2-2-0), plus he also likes this track/distance (4:2-1-0). He rises in class, so does drop 3kg off last start’s run. He could surprise here. Mystery Miss really hasn’t been herself this preparation and last, which does make me worry that maybe she’s fallen out of love with racing. However, her two runs this preparation she’s gotten quite far back, so the better barrier here should help improve that, plus she also gets a senior jockey on board. Her track/distance record also is a concern for me (3:0-0-0). However, she loves a soft track (7:2-1-2) and this could see her bounce back.
2 – Too Close The Sun
5 – Double Digit
12 – Royal Command
9 – Mystery Miss

Race 7 – W.A. Champion Fillies Stakes – 1600m – 4:20pm

Magical Dream ran the fastest last 600m in the Burgess Queen, which was the key lead up race for most of these horses. She does get 0.5kg on Snickerdoodledandy and Kissonallforcheeks, though I don’t think this weight on its own is enough to make a difference. She’s drawn wide again, so probably will get back, but hopefully, the extra 200m gives her more time to run them down. The only thing that would make me more confident is if we weren’t racing on a soft track (2:1-0-1). Hoping she has enough ability to turn the tables. Snickerdoodledandy won the Burgess Queen and showed a pretty good turn of foot in the process. She obviously really appreciated stepping up to 1400m and there’s no reason why the extra 200m will cause any problems. Not only did she beat my top tip last start but she also has a better soft track record (3:2-0-1) and barrier, which I do worry might be the deciding difference. There’s no reason why she can’t win. Kissonallforcheeks is the first one in my top three that likes to settle in the first few. She’s drawn a much better barrier this time, which will make getting that position a lot easier. She did lay out in the straight last start, which may have cost her the win. Given that this field is no easier, she will need to be on her best behaviour if she’s looking to go one better. The soft track will aid in this quest (2:1-1-0) and she’s definitely one you can’t rule out. Watch Me Dance is the most experienced horse in this race and has very good form surrounding those races. She was a little bit disappointing last start, but she did race wide throughout. Due to the conditions of this race, she does meet the other horses evenly in the weights. My biggest concern for her is that she doesn’t seem to go as well on a soft track (2:0-0-1) and given the class of this field, this could be enough to be her undoing.
4 – Magical Dream
2 – Snickerdoodledandy
3 – Kissonallforcheeks
1 – Watch Me Dance

Race 8 – Colonel Reeves Stakes – 1100m – 4:57pm

Celebrity Queen seems to be the forgotten cerise and white horse in this race. She does step up in class, though beating Cliffs Of Comfort and finishing second behind Laverrod is pretty good form! As a result of the lack of black type experience, she gets in on the minimum weight and Chris chose her (assuming that he had first pick of Mr Peters’ horses). She’s unbeaten at this track/distance (1:1-0-0) and on a soft track (1:1-0-0). The thing I love most about her is her turn of foot, with her recording a very good last 600m time first up on a soft track. The wide barrier would be a concern, but she has proven that she can overcome this. No reason why she should run a bad race. Indian Pacific won the listed Crawford leading into this race, beating a couple of these horses in the process. Interestingly, that race was a month ago, so I question whether he’s had a few little problems. However, he does go well fresh, so as long as he’s fine, the time off isn’t a concern. He’s unbeaten second up (2:2-0-0) and on a soft track (2:2–0-0). Though he’s yet to official race over 1100m, there’s absolutely no reason why he won’t handle it. I can’t fault him! Stageman looked to have gotten too far back in the group three Prince of Wales, but still manage to finish fourth, recording the fast last 600m time in that race. He does get 2kg on Valour Road as a result, though unfortunately hasn’t drawn a better barrier, so he might find himself running them down again from the back. He’s yet to finish outside the top three on a soft track (6:3-2-1) and it’s hard to see that statistic changing here. Flirtini is the only horse to come into this race first up, but she does have a pretty good first up record (4:2-0-2). Her two trials leading until this race also suggest that she’s ready to run. The fact that these two trials were on a soft track does add to my confidence in her too, which is reinforced by her official soft track record (6:2-1-1). This time last year she was on fire and I suspect connections will be using this run to fine-tune her for the Winterbottom.
14 – Celebrity Queen
9 – Indian Pacific
6 – Stageman
5 – Flirtini

Race 9 – Solutions Matchmaking Handicap – 1600m – 5:35pm

Em Tee Aye simply got too far back last start in the listed Fairetha and perhaps was slightly outclassed. He’s on the one-week backup, so he must have pulled up alright. Prior to last start he had won two in a row, including beating Dom To Shoot which is very good form. He’s drawn slightly better here and hopefully can get a forward position without using too much energy early on. The unknown of whether he’ll handle the distance and soft track is my biggest concern. Look for him to bounce back here though. Aconite is coming off a first up win over 1400m. Given his previous results though before his six-week break, stepping up to 1600m should only benefit him. The soft track is also in his favour. The 60kg may just get the better of him but he’s great value. Naughty By Nature looks to appreciate the smaller field last start and which meant despite settling near the rear, she didn’t have too many horses to pass. She faces a bigger field here and has drawn extremely wide, so she may get herself into a little bit of trouble. However, her soft track record may help her to go one better (3:1-0-2) in what is an incredibly open race. Morning Song hasn’t really returned to her perky self that we all knew this time last year. There’s been no big excuses in the stewards’ report, so that is a bit of a concern for me. She’s now third up, so if we’re going to see an improve it would be here. She is unbeaten over this distance (1:1-0-0) and has won at Ascot before (8:3-0-2), but never combined these two factors. She also only has to carry 54kg with Laqdar’s claim. The soft track may just get the better of her (3:0-0-1).
9 – Em Tee Aye
1 – Aconite
10 – Naughty By Nature
5 – Morning Song

Best Bet

Race 1 – Western Rhythm

Confidence rating

My confidence isn’t the best today and I think the fact that I’m only winning by 4 points in my tipping competition and with only 4 weeks to go it has really got me second guessing my tips. If I had to narrow the races down to those I’m less confident about, it would be race 2 (though this has increased slightly with the scratching of Brave Dream), 3, 7, 8 and 9, with the last race being an absolute nightmare. I feel like the rain might throw a spanner in the works too. Truly Great would have been my best bet but I thought his odds were quite short. Fingers crossed I’ve got a few winners!

Last Week’s Results

Saturday 07/11/2020
R3-quinella
Winners in top 4 – 6/9
Top picks: 3rd (no pay), 2nd, 2nd, 1st, -, -, -, -, 1st
Best bet: 3rd (no pay)
Profit:-5.1
Tuesday 11/11/2020
R1-box first four
Winners in top 4 – 4/8
Top picks: 1st, -, -, -, -, -, 3rd, –
Best bet: 3rd
Profit: -11.1