Horse Racing,  Tipping

Ascot 14/03/2020

Conditions

Rail – 9m
Track – Good 4
Forecast – Max 26 degrees, rain at times, possible storm

Race 1 – Mrs Mac’s PI Day Plate – 1200m – 12:51pm

Reciting had three really nice trials leading into her first race, where she came third. She should only improve off that run and looks to have some ability about her. Dom To Shoot is coming off some strong races, where he’s come fifth, first and the second, going down by the narrowest of margins to Watch Me Dance, who is a very good horse. He’s the only one of my top four to have raced beyond 1000m, which may prove to be an advantage here. Smashing came second to Reciting (third) and Champagne Diva (first) and her first run, with this form looking like the one to follow. She ran the fastest last 600m out of the three and again will benefit from that run. Champagne Diva beat Reciting and Smashing last start, winning in the process. However, that was on a soft track and given her previous two starts on a good track, I’m thinking she’s more a soft track horse. You definitely can’t knock winning form and I may be kicking myself after this race is won, but willing to watch and wait here.
5 – Reciting
1 – Dom To Shoot
4 – Smashing
3 – Champagne Diva

Race 2 – TabTouch Better Your Bet Handicap – 1600m – 1:31pm

Mystery Miss was disappointing last start. She gets in well with Chris’ claim and just has fantastic listed form from the winter, so I’m willing to give her another chance. Media Baron is absolutely flying at the moment, both in terms of results and the amazing turn of foot. If Mystery Miss isn’t at her best, he will certainly knock her over and is a serious threat! He did rise from 1500m to 2015m in the Esperance Cup and back down to 1600m here, but I don’t see that being a problem. Scoreline is a bit of a hit and miss horse but did win at Ascot three starts ago (a little of six weeks ago). Last start’s run was good and if he can get cover from that barrier, that would be good. Grey Enigma drops down in class here after finishing second to Harry Thomas and only rises 1kg in weight. He also ran fourth to Media Baron three starts ago. He’s not an overly consistent horse but should run well.
2 – Mystery Miss
1 – Media Baron
6 – Scoreline
8 – Grey Enigma

Race 3 – R More & Sons 100 Year Celebration Handicap – 1200m – 2:11pm

Little Fish finished off last preparation with a killer turn of foot. He hasn’t had a trial leading into this race, but his first up record is great (4:3-1-). He also carries the 60kg, which may be of slight concern, but he has won with this weight before over this distance. Carocapo was doing amazingly last preparation, but then wasn’t so flash first up. His second up record is better (3:1-0-1) plus he steps back up to 1200m which should also be a positive. Floyd has placed third at both starts this preparation. He’s perhaps better suited at 1000m and I’m a bit worried he’s going to have to settle too far back from that barrier. He’s only placed outside the top three on five occasions (20:5-6-4), so that’s certainly nothing to laugh at.  Chix Pic doesn’t really have anything to complain about another than the form surrounding his races perhaps isn’t the strongest. He did finish third to Carocapo four starts ago but doesn’t get any weight relief, in the hope of turning the tables. He’s been consistent and really there’s no reason he can’t win.
1 – Little Fish
2 – Carocapo
4 – Floyd
3 – Chix Pic

Race 4 – Glenroy Chaff Handicap – 1200m – 2:50pm

Sherpa Lass is three for three in her career. Clearly has ability and some turn of foot. No reason for her to be losing here. Guesteen is another ultra-consistent horse, never having placed outside of the top three (6:2-1-3). She may have found one better in Sherpa Lass but stepping up to 1200m may help. Kitgum has great country form and is coming off a win at Pinjarra last start. My only question is how this will stack up in the city. Bee Quick has been racing since September, but those races have been well spaced. Last four races have been over 1200m and all have been good. I would like to see her sit a little bit further forward and take advantage of the inside barrier if she can jump well.
5 – Sherpa Lass
7 – Guesteen
3 – Kitgum
8 – Bee Quick

Race 5 – D’Orsogna Handicap – 1600m – 3:25pm

Tollman is two for two this preparation and has never finished outside the top three in his career (7:3-2-2). He doesn’t have the form surrounding his races like some of the other horses, but I love his versatility, in that he can sit forward or mid-field. Dark Choice simply got too far back last start, though did run on nicely. It also was her first run after nearly a year off. She won the Oaks this time last year, so the step up in distance should also help. Utgard Loki is another one back on the scene after a year off. He showed a massive turn of foot last start, coming from last to get third. Obviously, the horse loves Lucy, so watch out for him again. Yardreamin’ finished second to Utgard Loki (third) last start and is another horse with a great turn of foot, showing that in both of her last two starts. She may be needed that turn of foot from the wide barrier too.
3 – Tollman
2 – Dark Choice
7 – Utgard Loki
9 – Yardreamin’

Race 6 – Byron Bay Premium Lager Handicap – 1400m – 4:05pm

Cryptic Love ran well to come second last start after being last on the corner. She came into that race without a trial, so will benefit from that run, despite not having the best second up record (3:0-0-1). Festival Miss really hasn’t been racing at her best this preparation. She does possess a good turn of foot, but this is no good if she gets stuck in traffic. She also goes down in class for the first time this preparation. Sophie’s Song has been racing well, especially in her previous two runs. She may have to use a bit of energy to get into an ideal position from that barrier. Other than that, she should go well. He’s a Gunslinger brings winning form after leading all the way last start. He steps up in distance and class, but did win at this distance four starts ago, beating Money Matters in the process (who is a great horse).
8 – Cryptic Love
7 – Festival Miss
5 – Sophie’s Song
11 – He’s a Gunslinger

Race 7 – Schweppes – JC Roberts Stakes – 1800m – 4:45m

Talladega is three for three in his career, so obviously has ability. My main concerns are the one-week backup and stepping up to 1800m (from 1400m), especially if he ends up leading. He does drop 4kg from last run and won’t know himself with 55kg, having never carried anything lighter than 58kg. Kelvin is the second most experienced horse in this race, which could be handy. His second up record is also good (1:0-0-1). He also beat Cryptic Wonder last preparation. No reason he can’t win. Bogart was disappointing last start after being unable to get a clear run in the straight. He would only need a bit more luck to do well here and any Peters’ horse must be respected in big races. I’m just a bit concern given he’s a hit and miss horse and hasn’t performed well at two starts at 1600m. Midnight Blue is improving with each run, winning last start over 2200m. He’s definitely one that’s going to appreciate this distance.
3 – Talladega
2 – Kelvin
6 – Bogart
8 – Midnight Blue

Race 8 – Natasha Stakes – 2200m – 5:20pm

Dark Mission returned with an elevated heart rate last start, so just put a line through that race. Assuming she’s recovered alright, I think she’s a massive chance at long odds, having never finished outside the top three before last start. I’m certainly willing to take that chance. Lonsdale Lady is a better choice if you’re looking for a safe better and is an even better pick if the track is leader bias. She has great form and led all the way to win last start, in the 1000 Guineas which is a key lead up race. The wide barrier has to be a concern and whether she’ll spend too much energy getting to the front. Naughty by Nature is a consistent horse who can run on. She finished third to Lonsdale Lady and gets 2kg on her here. She has won at 1400m, but I don’t think this distance will bother her. Cambist finished second to Lonsdale Lady and also gets 2kg on her here. Her turn of foot was just incredible, and it may be needed if she doesn’t jump well and too many horses cross her from the inside barrier.
7 – Dark Mission
2 – Lonsdale Lady
4 – Naughty by Nature
6 – Cambist

Race 9 – Crown Perth Handicap – 1200m – 5:55pm

Ocean’s Fifteen won at this distance first up last preparation and then went on to have a short but great preparation (3:2-0-1). He looks to have come back just as good, with a trial win over 1000m. Devoted Star did alright last start seeing that She lost six lengths at the start. Last 600m was run in good time and she can bounce back here. Snippy Miss is a consistent horse without winning. Connections will be praying that the rain comes, as her soft and heavy track record is pretty good. Wiener Waltz has been the bridesmaid in his last three starts. He steps up to the 1200m for the first time, which may help him go one better.
8 – Ocean’s Fifteen
10 – Devoted Star
13 – Snippy Miss
9 – Wiener Waltz


Best Bet

Race 4 – Sherpa Lass

Confidence rating

The small fields but competitive races hit me once again! My confidence levels definitely decrease as the day goes on too. The predicted rainfall put a bit of a spanner in the works, plus I’m taking a huge risk in the Natasha Stakes.

2 Comments

  • Jason

    Love your work. Love comparing my tips with yours, uncanny how often we see the race the same way. Some times good, some times really not so good. Thanks for the in-depth form. Keep up the great work

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