Ascot 13/11/2021

Conditions

Rail – True
Track – Good 4
Forecast – Max 31 degrees, sunny

Race 1 – Arlec Australia Handicap – 1200m – 12:28pm

4 – Nowhiteflag
6 – Written Matter
9 – Ultimate Command
3 – No Surrender

Comment: Nowhiteflag backed up his trial win with a win first up. Thanks to that run, he’s unbeaten at this track/distance (1:1-0-0). He steps up in class here, but he should easily find the front from barrier 3. Pike jumps off in favour of Fairy Fast, but this horse should run a good race. Written Matter showed ability, but he couldn’t quite make the jumps from a class 1 to a listed race last preparation. He’s unbeaten first up (1:1-0-0) and at this track/distance (1:1-0-0). His trial suggests that he’s ready to go here. Ultimate Command has some of the best form surrounding her races, she just usually finds one or two better. From barrier 7, she may have to use some energy early on to get a forward position. She can win this without surprising and at good odds too. No Surrender put 4.4 lengths on the next horse when finish second at his trial. It usually takes him a few runs to hit his peak, but he is unbeaten at this track/distance (2:2-0-0). There’s definitely speed in the races, as he’ll be looking to go forward as well. This could make for an interesting race.

Suggested bet: Nowhiteflag, Written Matter, Ultimate Command and No Surrender – each way

Race 2 – TABtouch – Westspeed Platinum Series Heat 3 – 1400m – 1:08pm

1 – Apple Schnapps
2 – Holy Enchantment
6 – Snippy Miss
4 – Beat The Bro

Comment: Apple Schnapps is coming off a win and has been racing really consistently. He steps up in distance for his new trainers, but he has won at Ascot before (5:1-2-0). Barrier 12 looks to cause him some problems, but at least he only has to carry 59.5kg due to Keshaw’s claim, which is 1.5kg less than last start. Hopefully, he handles the distance. Holy Enchantment hasn’t raced since March, but he has improved with each trial, winning his latest one. He’s only placed first up (3:0-0-1) and at this distance (1:0-1-0). He has a turn of foot which will help him here and he will improve next start. Snippy Miss just always finds one or two better. She’s been up for a long time, so I wonder whether she’s coming to the end of her preparation. She’s placed at this track/distance (5:0-2-0) and has drawn beautifully in barrier 5. She could surprise. Beat The Bro didn’t finish that far off the winner last start. He also went into that race without a trial, so he should improve off it fitness wise. He’s never raced over 1400m at Ascot, but he has previously placed at 1400m (10:0-4-2). He should go close once again.

Suggested bet: Apple Schnapps, Holy Enchantment, Snippy Miss and Beat The Bro – each way

Race 3 – Amelia Park Handicap – 1200m – 1:48pm

7 – Triple Missile
3 – Wilchino
8 – Secret Plan
1 – Hot Zed

Comment: Triple Missile absolutely flew home last start to finish second to Wilchino. He gets 1.5kg on her here and he’s unbeaten at this track/distance (1:1-0-0). In a slightly smaller field, that turn of foot is going to be lethal and he can easily win this. Wilchino is looking to make it 6 wins in a row across two preparations. She steps up to 1200m for the first time here and given her racing pattern, I do worry about whether that leaves her vulnerable. 60kg also looks to be a big ask, but she did win three starts ago carrying the same weight. There’s no doubt that she has ability, but it has to be questioned over this unknown distance. Secret Plan has good form surrounding his two runs this preparation. He didn’t have an ideal run last start but it was still a good run. He’s placed at this track/distance (4:1-1-1), which is something he has over my top tip. Whether this is enough to win, I think it could be. Hot Zed comes out of the same race as Secret Plan where he finished third. He has to carry 60kg again here, but he does like this track/distance (3:2-0-1). He’s a consistent horse but I think he’ll find one of my top three a little bit too zippy.

Suggested bet: Triple Missile, Wilchino and Secret Plan – each way

Race 4 – Heineken 3 Handicap – 1400m – 2:28pm

4 – Ginger Flyer
7 – Beret
3 – Big Bada Boom
11 – She’s God To You

Comment: Ginger Flyer is looking to make it three wins in a row. She’s unbeaten at this track/distance (3:3-0-0) and only has to carry 56kg thanks to Holly’s claim. Given her consistency, she’s incredible value! Beret finished second to God Has Chosen and gets 3kg on him here. Given the margin, I’m not sure weight alone is enough to turn the tables. She has a pretty good track/distance record herself though (4:1-3-0) and she’s very versatile on where she can sit in the run. She can win this. Big Bada Boom drops back in distance slightly, which could actually benefit him given that he’s unbeaten at this track/distance (1:1-0-0). He strung 5 wins together last preparation and looks to be in just as good of form this preparation. He faces some good horses here, but he must be respected. She’s God To You was disappointing first up, but she had excuses in the stewards’ report, including pulling up lame. Her second up record is much better (3:2-1-0) and she’s unbeaten at this track/distance (1:1-0-0). Look for her to bounce back here.

Suggested bet: Ginger Flyer, Beret, Big Bada Boom and She’s God To You – each way

Race 5 – R.J. Peters Stakes – 1500m – 3:08pm

3 – Kaptain Kaos
6 – Kissonallforcheeks
8 – Son Of Bacchus
5 – Cockney Crew

Comment: Kaptain Kaos showed a good turn of foot in the Northam Cup, which he won. With a smaller field here, he’s not going to get too far back from barrier 7. He’s up in distance, but he has a good track record (4:2-0-2). He’ll run a good race. Kissonallforcheeks was also disappointing last start, but perhaps leading all of the way didn’t suit here. From barrier 1, hopefully, a few horses cross her so she doesn’t lead again. She’s placed at this track/distance (1:0-1-0) and should bounce back here. Son Of Bacchus has been ticking along nicely this preparation. He drops down in distance here but he has previously won over 1500m (2:1-0-1). He also has a turn of foot but he may just find one better here. Cockney Crew got scratched at the barriers last start after pulling a shoe. His trial leading into that race was really strong, winning by 8.38 lengths. He’s yet to place at this track/distance (1:0-0-0), but he has won first up before (5:1-1-0). Hopefully his trial form holds up here.

Suggested bet: Kaptain Kaos and Kissonallforcheeks – each way

Race 6 – Seacorp – Ascot Gold Cup – 1800m – 3:50pm

13 – Temptacion
8 – Midnight Blue
9 – Mr Delegator
1 – Paddy’s Shadow

Comment: Temptacion has been improving with each run this preparation and finally got a win on the board last start. She steps up in distance, but she’s actually unbeaten at this track/distance (2:2-0-0), so she should handle the conditions here. Her barrier and weight are all ticks too. She should run a good race! Midnight Blue finished fourth to Temptacion last start and gets 4kg on her here. Pike jumps back on board and he’s placed at this track/distance (3:1-0-1). Surprisingly he’s yet to place second up (2:0-0-0) and there’s no doubt that’s he’s looking for further as he progresses to the Perth Cup. He’s not without his chances here. Mr Delegator is up in class and distance here. He has won two races in a row though and no doubt he does his best work from the front. From barrier 9, he’s going to have to use a bit of energy to get that position though. At least he’s won at Ascot before though (4:2-0-0) and has previously won from a wide barrier. The step up in distance could be what he’s looking for. Paddy’s Shadow won a listed race last preparation over 2000m, so this distance should be right up his alley. He’s trialled well leading into this race and he’s won first up before (7:1-1-1). He probably prefers Bunbury, seeing as he’s only placed at this track/distance (3:0-0-1). He’s at long odds for a reason.

Suggested bet: Temptacion, Midnight Blue and Mr Delegator – each way

Race 7 – Euroz Hartleys – WA Champion Fillies Stakes – 1600m – 4:25pm

3 – Buzzoom
2 – Searchin’ Roc’s
4 – My Fury
7 – Mrs America

Comment: Buzzoom won a key lead up race to this one in the Buress Queen. She showed an amazing turn of foot in the process, and everything suggests that she should handle the step up to 1600m here. Look for her to make it four wins in a row. Searchin’ Roc’s finished second to Buzzoom last start and gets 1kg on her here. I don’t think that along is enough to turn the tables though. It’s a shame that the track has dried out, as there’s no doubt that she would have excelled on a soft track. If she can settle slightly better this time, she’ll see out the 1600m strongly. My Fury is one of the few horses that is proven at this distance and she’s in fact, unbeaten over 1600m (1:1-0-0). Jason rides for the first time, with Lucy currently injured. She finished fourth in the Burgess Queen and as I previously said, she’ll appreciate the step up in distance. She’s great value! Mrs America is significantly up in class, after winning a class 1 at Northam. She can be a hit and miss horse, so she’ll need things to go her way here. She also has barrier 12 to contend with, though she can run on to some extent. Never rule out a Pike/Peters/Williams combination in a feature race.

Suggested bet: Buzzoom, Searchin’ Roc’s, My Fury and Mrs America – each way

Race 8 – Euroz Hartleys – Colonel Reeves Stakes – 1100m – 5:00pm

5 – Iseered Iseered
1 – Elite Street
15 – Graceful Girl
7 – Stageman

Comment: Iseered Iseered hasn’t raced since mid-September, so there is a question mark over why his runs have been so spaced. However, he does go well fresh. He’s also unbeaten at this track/distance (2:2-0-0). He does have the form or CV like Elite Street, but at such good odds, I’m willing to risk it. Elite Street looks to have the Winterbottom at his mercy after winning both runs this preparation. He’s also unbeaten at this track/distance (1:1-0-0). He’s carried 59.5kg to win before, but what might cause him trouble is barrier 14, as he doesn’t really like to get back in his runs. Dan also said that he’s using this run to just keep him fit for the Winterbottom. There’s no doubt that he can easily win this, but I don’t think they’ll be risking anything here. Graceful Girl had so many excuses last start, so just put a line through that run. She’s up in class, but that does mean that she gets in really well at the weights. She’s also placed at this track/distance (1:0-1-0). Look for her to bounce back here and potentially win. Stageman finished second to Elite Street last start and gets 3kg on him here. Pike does jump off in favour of Graceful Girl, but this horse does have a much better track/distance record (6:1-2-2). He must be respected.

Suggested bet: Iseered Iseered, Elite Street, Graceful Girl and Stageman – each way

Race 9 – Crown Towers Handicap – 1000m – 5:35pm

10 – The Front Bar
5 – Acromantula
3 – Brooklyn Pier
11 – Beads

Comment: The Front Bar won in a nice fashion first up. She faces the older horses here, but thanks to last start, she’s unbeaten at this track/distance (1:1-0-0). She’s drawn barrier 11, but she has previously won from barrier 10. I’m hoping “Pike in the last” is true here! Acromantula has better form than my top tip and won a trial leading into this race. Combined with the fact that he’s unbeaten second up (2:2-0-0) and that he’s won at this track/distance (4:3-0-0), it wouldn’t be a surprise to see him winning here. Brooklyn Pier was pretty consistent last preparation, but he definitely does his best work fresh, so it’s good to see him first up here. He has a good distance record (5:2-1-1) and has won at Ascot (3:1-0-0), but he is yet to face these conditions together. He should run a good race here. Beads also faces the older horses for the first time. He’s never raced at Ascot, but is proven over 1000m (2:1-1-0). He’s only placed outside of the top 3 once in his career (4:1-2-0) and that was at his first start. I’m curious to see what he can do here.

Suggested bet: The Front Bar, Acromantula and Brooklyn Pier – each way

Best Bet

Race 5 – Kaptain Kaos

Quaddie

R6: 8, 9, 13
R7: 2, 3, 4, 7, 12
R8: 1, 5, 7, 15
R9: 2, 3, 5, 9, 10, 11

Confidence rating

M confidence is definitely on the weaker side this week. I’m not confident about races 2, 3, 5 6 and 10, but by far I’m taking a risk in race 8. Hopefully, I’ve been able to find a bit of value though.

Last Week’s Results

R3: boxed first 4
Winners in top 4: 6/9
Top picks: -, 2nd, 1st, 1st, -, 1st, 1st, -, 1st
Best bet: 1st
Quaddie: Yes
Profit: +6.9 ($1ew on top tips & $2ew on bb)