Ascot 13/02/2021

Conditions

Rail – 2m
Track – Good 4
Forecast – Max 32 degrees, sunny

Race 1 – TABtouch Westspeed Platinum Maiden – 1500m – 12:09pm

Spirit Of Prophecy has been racing in career best form, recording four seconds and a third at her past five starts (13:0-4-2). She did race at Albany on Monday, so she is on the quick backup. She also faces this track and distance for the first time, though given how she’s been racing over 1300 and 1600m, 1500m shouldn’t cause her any problems. She should easily find the front from barrier three and with not a lot of speed in the race, she’ll be giving them something to run down. Look for her to get her maiden win here. Molly Magee is the least experienced horse in this race, but it does make her career statistics one of the most impressive (4:0-1-0). She was a bit disappointing last start, with no excuses in the stewards’ report. Perhaps stepping up in distance will benefit her though. She doesn’t seem to have a turn of foot, but from barrier four she should settle just off the speed. Her only place has come at Ascot (2:0-1-0), so she’s not without her chances. Belafonte Boy is yet to even place at nine starts (9:0-0-0), so it’s going to be interesting to see how he goes here. He raced three times in January, so it’s interesting to see that his race has been a little bit more spaced this time. He’s also got a gear change, with the blinkers coming off again and the winkers going on for the first time. No reports of him previously not settling, but maybe the gear change will lead to an improvement. The weak field is certainly going to benefit him too. Lady Hatras finished second last start at Ascot, which was one of her best career runs (25:0-3-2). Her races do have weaker form lines surrounding them compared to some of these other horses. She’s also six-years-old, which does suggest that perhaps her best days are behind her. She does look to be more a 1200m horse, so interesting to see her race at this distance while being on the six-day backup too. With this weak but even field, she could surprise.
6 – Spirit Of Prophecy
8 – Molly Magee
1 – Belafonte Boy
7 – Lady Hatras

Race 2 – Amelia Park Maiden – 1000m – 12:49pm

It’s Tiff’s got run down late last start after leading all the way. She definitely does her best work when leading, so while she might have to use a bit of energy early on to get that position, it will be worth it. She’s placed at this distance before (7:0-1-1) but not at Ascot (1:0-0-0), nor has she faced these conditions together before. She’s on the one-week backup but should run a good race. He’s On Fire is a maiden in this race, though was first seen at trials all the way back in April 2019. There’s definitely a question mark over why it’s taken this long to get to the race, but he has had two trials leading into this race, including winning the latest one. He’ll only improve off this run. Jono finished third behind He’s On Fire at his last trial. We haven’t seen him at the races since July last year, so hopefully, he’s come back bigger and stronger. The two races that he placed second in last preparation do have some good form surrounding them. He’s yet to place first up (2:0-0-0) and I think he may be looking for a touch more distance. If he’s going to sit inside It’s Tiff’s, the 1000m may just give them less time to catch him. Not without his chances. Miss Brighton actually comes out of the same race as It’s Tiff’s, where she finished sixth. She had the ideal run then so it’s a bit disappointing that she didn’t finish the race off strongly. From barrier one she’ll probably be able to settle off the leaders once again, though hopefully, she doesn’t get stuck on the rail. It’s an even race but she kind of seems to be the best of the rest.
6 – It’s Tiff’s
4 – He’s On Fire
2 – Jono
8 – Miss Brighton

Race 3 – TABtouch Better Your Bet Plate – 1100m –1:29pm

Star Soprano has won both of his trial leading into this race, with the last one being extra impressive, as he won by 4.3L. Nothing has really come out of those trials, so it’s a bit hard to tell how good the form surrounding those trials is. He’s got a good barrier though and Jade has ridden him at all of his trials. One to watch going forward. Hear Me Sing is a full brother to Watch Me Dance. He didn’t disappoint first up, though did show his inexperience. He’s had the one trial leading into this race, which he placed third in. He’s also placed at this track/distance before (1:0-1-0). No reason why he can’t win this. Secret Lair is also unbeaten at the trials, though he’s only had the one trial, so it’s a bit hard to tell just how good he is. If he performs like he did in his trial, then the wide barrier looks to be the only thing that stands in his way. Whether he has a turn of foot to come from last, or they opt to use energy early on, we’ll just have to wait and see. One to watch going forward. Mahutas did extremely well last start, finishing second, given that he was 31/1 in that race. He’s still good value in this race where he’ll race under the same conditions. The only difference is that he jumps from barrier six instead of barrier four. He’ll only improve here with one run under his belt.
8 – Star Soprano
1 – Hear Me Sing
6 – Secret Lair
2 – Mahutas

Race 4 – Crown Perth Handicap – 1600m – 2:08pm

Phoneme is a consistent horse, only placing outside of the top three once this preparation (6:2-0-3). He steps back up to 1600m which looks to suit him a lot, especially given his track/distance record (2:1-0-1). Barrier eight could cause some concern, but he placed third last time he jumped from this barrier at this distance. He drops 1.5kg despite not rising in class and looks to be very well suited here. He should run a good race. Cambist comes into this race after placing ninth in the Perth Cup. She was probably just a touch out classed there and got too far back, so it’s a bit of a forgive run. She drops significantly in distance, having not placed at this track/distance before (2:0-0-0). She may be looking for a touch further, but she does go well fresh. Look for her to make her mark here. Red Publisher is a bit of a hit and miss horse, but his run last start where he finished second behind Last Of The Line was very good. He drops 1kg in weight, should get a nice position from barrier one and he’s won at this track/distance before (9:1-1-0). In a race where my top two are the only standout horses, he’ll get another chance here. Living The Dream finished second and first at his last two starts. They were in the country in weaker company, but you can’t knock winning form. He’s won at this distance before (4:1-0-1) and the small field will benefit him, as he can usually run on from midfield. Just a question on whether he has the class to match them here.
5 – Phoneme
6 – Cambist
2 – Red Publisher
7 – Living The Dream

Race 5 – Heineken 3 Handicap – 1800m – 2:45pm

Beat The Bro is another consistent horse, only placing outside of the top three once this preparation two starts ago when he got blocked in the straight. He steps up to 1800m for the first time but given his past performances, he should be able to handle it. He too has to carry 60kg but has won with 59.5kg and placed second with 61.5kg this preparation. If No Surrender gets tired this horse will be looking to pounce. Big Bada Boom has been racing really well at Albany, so it’s not a surprise to see Mitchell jump off No Surrender (unless Chris got offered the ride first). This horse has great career statistics (6:4-1-0) and is unbeaten at this distance (1:1-0-0). From barrier four, she may just get to the front a touch easier than No Surrender, so that’s going to make for an interesting race. Hopefully, they don’t burn each other out. The form surrounding her races is slightly weaker, but there’s no reason why she can’t win this. Enduring Moment looks to be bouncing back to his old ways after winning last start. That race was at Bunbury in slightly weaker company though. He races beyond 1400m for the first time, so it’s going to be interesting to see how he handles that. Plus he’s yet to place at Ascot (1:0-0-0), though he did get a bit too far back in that run. Look for him to continue the good form that we saw last preparation. Eurasia did as well to finish as close as he did last start given the amount of excuses in the stewards’ report. He’s yet to race at 1800m but has been performing well over 1600m and has raced at 2000m before. He’s also won at Ascot (8:1-3-1). Just haven’t seen him at his best since this time last year.
1 – Beat The Bro
3 – Big Bada Boom
5 – Enduring Moment
7 – Eurasia

Race 6 – Mrs Mac’s Handicap – 1200m – 3:20pm

Absolute showed a really good turn last start, which helped him to overcome the wide barrier. Given that he’s drawn wide once again, connections will be hoping for a repeat performance. He does increase 2kg as a result of the win, but he does have a good track/distance record (2:1-1-0). His form could be slightly stronger, however, he seems to have hit a sweet spot in his career. I’m hoping that turn of foot will be the winning difference. Lipstick Flickers got scratched from last Saturday’s meeting due to hoof soreness, so I’m assuming that has fixed itself seeing as he’s racing here. He doesn’t seem to have a turn of foot lately, so probably got a touch too far back last start. He’s drawn extremely wide here, so there is the worry that he could find himself in a similar position. At least he only has to carry 56kg with Victoria’s claim and he has a great track/distance record (4:1-2-1). He’s a consistent horse that looks to be well placed here. Alien From Mars perhaps would have finished closer at her last two starts, had she not gotten blocked in the straight. From barrier fourteen, I assume she’s going to be sitting outside someone, so hopefully won’t get blocked this time. The form surrounding her win three starts ago isn’t the strongest, but she does have a good track/distance record (3:1-1-0). She may just fall victim to the wide barrier. Great value tip. Tommy Blue just doesn’t seem to be herself lately. She had a few excuses two starts ago, but nothing was written in the stewards’ report for last start. She can be her own worst enemy, so fingers crossed for connections she’s on her best behaviour here. She’s won at this track/distance before (3:1-1-0) and unlike a few of my top tips, she actually has a decent barrier. Look for her to bounce back here.
8 – Absolute
4 – Lipstick Flickers
13 – Alien From Mars
6 – Tommy Blue

Race 7 – Cyril Flower Stakes – 1200m – 3:55pm

Carocapo just seems to be finding one or two better lately, though keeps fighting every time. Conditions look to really suit him here, as he loves this track/distance (16:7-0-3) and has a good barrier to jump from and should settle in the first few. Plus, there are not the likes of Indian Pacific and Flirtini. Hard to fault so he should run a good race. Saracino actually beat Carocapo last start, finishing third to his fourth. He’s third up so will be spot on fitness wise, plus his turn of foot could be lethal in this small field. Even though he’s drawn barrier one, there is a bit of speed in the race, so he may still get back in the run. He’s yet to win at this track/distance (3:0-0-2), but that can easily change here. Platoon drops down significantly in distance after finishing fifth in the Perth Cup. He hasn’t had a trial between runs but does go well fresh, so the time off isn’t too much of a concern. The form surrounding his races is some of the strongest, but he is yet to win over this distance (3:0-0-0). He has the class to win this but may just be looking for a touch further. Yeah Dardy won a trial leading into this race. There was a very good margin between him and the third horse too. He actually has a pretty good first up record (10:4-0-2) and he placed in two listed races last preparation. He may be a better 1000m horse, but he has placed at this track/distance before (4:0-0-3). He can surprise.
1 – Carocapo
5 – Saracino
2 – Platoon
7 – Yeah Dardy

Race 8 – Morley Growers Market – Challenge Stakes – 1500m – 4:35pm

Kissonallforcheeks is on fire this preparation, winning two in a row. She faces her own age again but drops 3.5kg off last start’s run. She steps up in distance but has won over 1400m before this preparation. She didn’t handle the 1600m last preparation but that could be put down to the heavy going. Luckily, she has a turn of foot, as she’ll need that from barrier eleven. She’s third up too so should be spot on fitness wise. There’s no reason for her to run a bad race. Solaia has shown her full ability at her past three runs. She’s yet to run over 1500m, but it looks right up her alley given her previous performances over 1400m and 1600m. She finished second to Kissonallforcheeks three starts ago but actually has to give her 0.5kg here. The wide barrier doesn’t look to pose a problem either, though she doesn’t seem to have a turn of foot like Kissonallforcheeks. I wouldn’t blink an eye if she won. Western Empire finally got a win on the board last start after placing twice at listed level this preparation. He does seem to have fallen victim to wide barriers, so having barrier two here will be a relief. He has a turn of foot and the distance looks to suit. He may finally get his first black type win here. La Farola brings slightly different form lines to this race but it’s hard to ignore that she’s won two races in a row. The form surrounding her last race looks particularly good given that Tambora won on Thursday in a lovely fashion. She’s competitively weighted, has a good barrier and has great career statistics (7:3-2-0). She’ll need a career best performance here but that is certainly achievable.
3 – Kissonallforcheeks
8 – Solaia
6 – Western Empire
7 – La Farola

Race 9 – Seppelt Wines Handicap – 1000m – 5:15pm

Platinum Bullet has really stepped up this preparation, recording a dead heat with Weaponson last start. I thought she might be more of a 1200m horse, but she has won over this distance before (3:1-0-1), though not over this distance at Ascot (2:0-0-1). A few red flags for me are the wide barrier, though she did place second from barrier eleven first up. The 60.5kg makes this a big ask too, especially if she gets back. If she can overcome these factors she can win. Time To Sizzle is looking to make it three wins in a row. This track/distance is definitely her favourite (5:4-0-0), which will give her an advantage here. What won’t give her an advantage is the extremely wide barrier and the energy she’ll have to use to get the lead. At least she only had to carry 56kg with Madi’s claim. This combination has had two starts together for two wins, so only time will tell whether the barrier gets the better of them. Plutocracy is another consistent horse. The thing I love about him the most is his track/distance record (5:1-3-1). With Carleen’s claim, he also drops to a more realistic weight of 58kg. He’s also got an inside barrier. The only reason he’s further down my list is that I don’t think the form surrounding his races is as strong compared to some of these other horses in the race. Consistency and a fighting attitude could see him pull through here. Chesten Flyer has won a trial leading into this race. His first up record is good (7:0-3-1), but I love his track/distance record (7:2-2-3). He’s facing slightly better horses here but that does result in some great odds. He’ll only improve next start.
5 – Platinum Bullet
6 – Time To Sizzle
3 – Plutocracy
13 – Chesten Flyer

Best Bet

Race 4 – Phoneme

Confidence rating

Look my confidence isn’t great, especially having the knock I took last week. The races that I’m most concerned about are races 2, 6, and 8, though the rest are pretty even, with maiden races always hard and races 3, 5 and 9 having a few horses you can make a case for. I’m hoping that I can bounce back here!

Last Week’s Results

Winners in top 4- 3/10
Top picks: -, 3rd, -, -, -, -, 2nd, -, 2nd, –
Best bet: –
Profit: -16.5