Horse Racing,  Tipping

Ascot 11/04/2020

Conditions

Rail – 6m
Track – Good 4
Forecast – Max 37 degrees, sunny

Race 1 – TabTouch Westspeed Platinum Maiden – 1000m – 11:23pm

This is a pretty even race to start the day! Stella Door has placed second three times in five starts but is yet to get a win on the board. He does perform better when sitting in the first few and should be able to do that from that barrier. Placed second last start where he was first up without a trial, so should definitely improve here, especially with that good second-up record (1:0-1-0). Captain Kink was average at his first start before going for a spell. He looks to have come back better this preparation though, winning one over 930m. The wide barrier and increase in weight are a concern though. Queen of Soul suggested she has some ability when placing first and second in two trials but then failed to fire at three starts at the races. She comes into this race without a trial and may settle in an awkward spot from that barrier, but Pike is a positive. Old Bailey definitely hasn’t shown much as his two career starts. He seems to have perhaps come back better this preparation, winning a trial over 1000m.
1 – Stella Door
3 – Captain Kink
9 – Queen of Soul
4 – Old Bailey

Race 2 – Amelia Parl Plate – 1000m – 11:58pm

Our Boy Dylan has never finished outside of the top two (3:1-2-0) getting a win on the board last start. He does raise 2kg because of it but has the ability to be winning here again. Charleton Eddie is another fantastic horse, finishing third in a listed race behind Gemma’s Son at his first start. He then went on to win at his second start. My only concern is that he may need to use a lot of petrol to get to the lead from that barrier, with others wanting this spot too. Serious threat! Captain Burglar gets 2kg on Our Boy Dylan since they last met. He should be able to settle further forward from the barrier and should improve with one race under his belt now. Choix De Lace pulled up sore after her first start, so just forgive that last place performance. Her trials have also suggested that she’s better than that. She finished fourth to Our Boy Dylan first up this preparation and also gets 2kg on him here.
1 – Our Boy Dylan
2 – Charleton Eddie
3 – Captain Burglar
5 – Choix De Lace

Race 3 – Furphy Handicap – 1200m – 12:34pm

Son of a God is three for three this preparation, only placing out of the top three once (4:3-0-0). He’s clearly a horse to keep your eye on. He does step up in class and has to carry 60kg, but won with 59.5kg last start, so I’m not too concerned. Tommy Blue is going to give my top tip a run for his money. She has far superior form surrounding her races; however, Pike jumps off her in favour of my top pick. Tradensia comes up to the city for the first time but she hasn’t finished outside of the top two in her career (2:1-1-0). Her first trial this preparation was good, but the second one was slightly disappointing so that just has a question mark over it for me. Warfish was perhaps a victim to the wide barrier last start. He gets the other extreme here but should be able to settle in the first few with ease.
1 – Son of a God
2 – Tommy Blue
9 – Tradensia
3 – Warfish

Race 4 – Crown Perth Handicap – 1000m – 1:19pm

Catherine Wheel didn’t handle leading all the way over 1200m last start. She’s definitely better than that, so dropping back in distance should help. She does have to carry significantly more weight though and has had about 6 weeks off. First up record is flawless (2:2-0-0). State Attorney has a fantastic first up record (5:1-2-2) and looked good in a recent trial. He has good form surrounding his races and was placing consistently forth earlier in the year. Pike jumps off but I still expect a good performance. Sweet Dreamin’ has been racing consistently. However, I’m not sure dropping back in distance is a good move and Pike clearly had a choice of rides here. He certainly could surprise here though. Condor Heros trialed exceptional well leading into this race, winning by sixth length. While his first up record is also good (6:2-1-0) he does have a habit of doing well in trials and then not bringing this to the races. He definitely can win but perhaps on a softer track I would have had him higher up.
8 – Catherine Wheel
5 – State Attorney
2 – Sweet Dreamin’
4 – Condor Heros

Race 5 – Penfolds Handicap – 1600m – 1:59pm

Patristic should be leading this race with Corporate Larrikin. He rises in class but gets a nice weight because of it. The step up in distance also looks to be a positive. He gets absolute every chance here to be winning. Mystery Miss got simply too far back last start, so willing to forgive that run. Pike jumps back on board here and she also drops back in distance. She’s a hit and miss horse but gets another chance here. Dutch Spy finished fourth in two listed races this preparation. He’s not a horse that can make up ground, so Chris will need to settle in a good position to ensure he’s in the finish. Bella’s Idol won’t know himself with just 52kg on his back. His races haven’t been anything outstanding but that light weight and inside barrier may make all the difference.
10 – Patristic
9 – Mystery Miss
5 – Dutch Spy
6 – Bella’s Idol

Race 6 – Cool Ridge Handicap – 1600m – 2:38pm

Tollman didn’t jump well last start which resulted in him losing for the first time this preparation and first time outside the top three. He has ability with great career statistics (8:3-2-2) and can definitely bounce back here. King Blitz has shown he possesses a turn of foot if he doesn’t get caught in traffic, as what looks to be the case two starts ago. Other than that, he’s been racing consistently but may struggle with the 62kg (despite coming second last start with 61.5kg). Cocky Dodd has turned around lately and seems to have found his grove when leading in his past two starts. Form prior to that was shocking but I’ll be interested to see what happens if he can lead. Skinnen Tins is a hit and miss horse who may appreciate these middle-distance races. Connections make good use of Jade’s claim and combined with a good barrier she should go well.  
4 – Tollman
1 – King Blitz
7 – Cocky Dodd
3 – Skinnen Tins

Race 7 – Happy 80th Birth Colin Webster Handicap – 1600m – 3:14pm

Divine Shadow got too far back last start, so just draw a line through that. He had been racing well before that and can bounce back here. Baramagic is another horse with a fabulous turn of foot. The form surrounding his races probably isn’t as good as Yadreamin’ (if we’re comparing horses with a turn of foot) and he might appreciate a little bit more distance. However, watch out if they’re running on from the back. Dark Choice won the group three WA Oaks this time last year before coming sixth in the Derby. She has nearly a year off the scene before finishing sixth in two starts this preparation. She’s had excuses in those runs and while I’m not holding my breath, if she can bring that Oaks form she could be winning. Chris’ claim will also help with this. Our Idyll is yet to win at Ascot (3:0-1-0) and the form surrounding her races isn’t the best. However, she does like this distance (4:2-0-1), has a perfect third up record (1:1-0-0) and is coming off a win at Pinjarra last start.
6 – Divine Shadow
5 – Baramagic
1 – Dark Choice
7 – Our Idyll

Race 8 – Schweppes – W.A.T.C Derby – 2400m – 3:50pm

Tuscan Queen has proven she’s the horse to beat with that turn of foot. She’s also been improving with each step up in distance. With a good barrier and Pike on board, there will be no excuses. If you’re looking for value look elsewhere though. The only question is whether the fillies are better than the colts. Midnight Blue got blocked in the straight last start and still managed to finish second in the Melvista. The wide barrier may result in a not so favourable run, but I think he’ll definitely run out this distance. Red Hot Tip won the key lead up race for the colts in the Melvista. They just couldn’t catch him then and if he can get a similar run here than the field will be trying to catch him again. I think he’s another that will handle the distance. Naughty By Nature has been racing pretty consistently except for that one race two starts ago. She finished second behind Tuscan Queen in the Oaks and also run the second fast 600m behind her as well. She’s won over 1400m, shown a turn of foot over 1800m and the placed second over 2400m, so this is an interesting race for her.
4 – Tuscan Queen
2 – Midnight Blue
1 – Red Hot Tip
5 – Naughty By Nature

Race 9 – Pepsi Max Handicap – 2100m – 4:25pm

Adornment finished second to Mr Kunafa last start. She gets a better barrier here and is proven over this distance. She can definitely turn the tables despite not getting any weight on Mr Kunafa. Volkswagon Frank is on the one-week back up, after winning over 2400m. He was racing well before that too and can surprise here once again. Black Shadow finished second to Volkswagon Frank last start and gets 1.5kg on him here. He overcame the wide barrier than and can do that again here, especially with that turn of foot. Paddy’s Shadow was a touch disappointing last start after getting too far back during the run. She steps up in distance, which will certainly benefit given her distance record (3:1-0-2) and track/distance record (1:1-0-0).
4 – Adornment
9 – Volkswagon Frank
6 – Black Shadow
3 – Paddy’s Shadow

Race 10 – Schweppes Tonic Handicap – 1200m – 5:00pm

Celebrity Queen has drawn outside Cryptic Love so they may be settling close together in the run. She also has a turn of foot. When looking at the times for her last 600m, they are also faster than Cryptic Love. This may prove to be the difference. Cryptic Love blew everyone away last start, coming from nearly last to win. He overcame a wide barrier then so that’s not a problem in this race. He was also racing well before that. He’s a serious threat! Seannie won at Ascot after coming off a Melbourne campaign. She’s had nearly four months off racing and her trials haven’t been anything outstanding, but she has ability when at his best. Glasgow Girl hasn’t been racing at her best lately, but the step up in distance may change this. Combined with a good weight and barrier she has a lot going for her.
8 – Celebrity Queen
6 – Cryptic Love
3 – Seannie
11 – Glasgow Girl


Best Bet

Race 6 – Tollman

Confidence rating

I tossed up for ages between my two top picks in the last two races, so hoping I went the right way there! Feel like it’s another week of cracking races with no obvious winners. For these reasons, my confidence levels are quite low.

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