Ascot 10/10/2020

Conditions

Rail – 3m
Track – Good 4
Forecast – Max 23 degrees, partly cloudy

Race 1 – TabTouch Westspeed Platinum Maiden – 1400m – 12:34pm

Lord Lonsdale did a few things wrong at his first start back in December last year. Since then he’s at two winning trials, one in February and one in September. Both of these suggest that he has matured and come back bigger and stronger. He only carries 56.5kg with Chloe’s claim and from that barrier, he should be able to settle into a nice position. His trial form isn’t the best, but I’m hoping his ability holds up here. Wednesday has been improving with each run, recording a third and then a second. Being third up she’ll definitely have fitness on her side and stepping up in distance should benefit her, as it will give her more time to run them down (though there doesn’t look to be a lot of speed in the race). With a good barrier, she can go one better here. Miami City is a good horse but finds himself in another competitive race. He’s yet to finish outside the top three in his career (3:0-1-2), with all of those starts coming over this distance, so that won’t be a problem here. The biggest concern is the wide barrier and where they’re going to end up from there. One extra thing to note too is that his trainer did say he would be going for a spell in the stewards’ report after his last race (23 September). Obviously, this didn’t happen, so it looks like he pulled up ok. He should run a good race. Trade Fair Express was disappointing last start, with the only excuse being that he raced wide. However, he then went back to a trial which he won, so he looks to have bounced back. He’s the most experienced, but is yet to win in fourteen starts (14:0-4-5). The distance does suit (3:0-3-0) but he probably would have preferred softer ground. Look for him to be right in the finish again.
6 – Lord Lonsdale
8 – Wednesday
2 – Miami City
1 – Trade Fair Express

Race 2 – Schweppes Initial Plate – 1000m – 1:14pm

This is a race that is an absolute nightmare to bet it, with every horse having their first start. However, Fatale Femme goes on top for me. She is the only one who is unbeaten in all of her trials (two). The last one she also won by a good margin and it was over 1000m, which means she should handle the distance here. With a good barrier, she has a lot going in her favour. She should only improve off this run. Rommel’s Command got a bit of media attention when he won his latest trial. That was on a soft track though, so there’s a question mark whether he prefers that type of ground. At his first trial, he did finish third behind Fatale Femme, and that’s without her having a weight advantage, so hopefully, that form holds up here. This horse is a great place value bet though. Send It Son also brings good trial form, recording a second and then a win. He does bring slightly different trial form lines to this race (besides beating Six Carat) so it’s a bit hard to judge him against the rest of the field. He does only have to carry 55kg with Chris’ claim, but I’m a bit worried that he might get lost from that wide barrier. I’m surprised he’s at such long odds ($11/$2.8) at the time of writing this, given how even the field is. The Lady Is A Vamp finished second to Fatale Femme at her first trial but then went on to win at her next one. Out all the 400m trials this field has done, her winning one was the fastest, so if they go fast here, that should definitely suit her. From barrier one she might get too far back if she doesn’t jump well, so hopefully, that doesn’t happen. She rounds out a top four and field that has many live chances!
6 – Fatale Femme
3 – Rommel’s Command
4 – Send It Son
10 – The Lady Is A Vamp

Race 3 – Amelia Park Handicap – 2200m – 1:54pm

Bonneville Black is looking to make it four wins in a row here. He’s just excelled since Madi has been riding and since connections decided he should take a forward position in running. From barrier 3 and with such a small field, he certainly shouldn’t get too far back here. He also only has to carry 52kg with Madi’s claim in what looks to be an easier race on paper to what he’s previously faced. His track record certainly isn’t the best (4:1-0-0) but this is definitely his race to lose. Double Digit has been racing pretty consistently if you put a line through that run two starts ago where he just got too far back. Bonneville Black won that race, but this horse gets 4kg on him here and 4.5kg from three starts ago where he finished third behind him. Again, with the small field, he shouldn’t get too far back from that barrier, plus he has a long time to catch them. He’s a threat to my top tip. Mackenzie Brooke was a touch disappointing last start, but the start before that was excellent where she narrowly went down to Montelena, with this pair putting a good margin on the rest of the field. The biggest thing in her favour is that she is unbeaten over this track/distance (2:2-0-0). She also only has to carry 56kg with Laqdar’s claim which makes her very competitive, especially when you factor in that lovely barrier. She can surprise! He’s A Parker put in a nice performance last start, finishing third behind Money Matters, which looks like very good form. Stepping up in distance should certainly benefit, as he does love longer distances like this (6:1-0-2). He does only have to carry 60kg with Chris’ claim, but this is still a big ask over this distance. All of his wins have come on a good track, so if he can handle the weight, he can run a good race.
4 – Bonneville Black
3 – Double Digit
2 – Mackenzie Brooke
1 – He’s A Parker

Race 4 – Seppelt Wines Handicap – 1600m – 2:33pm

Truly Great has put in two really nice trials leading into this race and looks to be in for a great preparation! He’s only placed outside of the top three twice in his career (7:3-2-0) but at both of those starts he got blocked in the straight. From barrier nine, I’m hoping he won’t be on the fence, so getting blocked doesn’t happen again. It doesn’t matter if he gets back in the field, as he does seem to possess a turn of foot. He’s placed at this distance (1:0-1-0) and this track (3:1-1-0). His first up record is good (3:1-1-0) but his trials suggest he’s ready to win this. It’s not a surprise to see him as the short priced favourite. Mafeking won first up at his first start in WA. He drops 4kg off that win due to the rise in class and he’s drawn slightly better. The step up in distance should benefit if his Victoria results are anything to go by. He also showed a good turn of foot at his first start in Victoria, so if he can bring that here, he could threaten. He should only improve after having a start in WA under his belt. Red Hot Tip was very disappointing last start and looks to have just gotten too far back. His trial leading into that race also wasn’t that snappy, so that does raise a few red flags. However, last preparation he was racing really well, placing second in the group two WATC Derby. This does suggest that the step up in distance should benefit him, though he could be looking for even further. His second up record is ok (1:0-0-1) but he does like this track (4:1-2-0). Hopefully, he can bounce back here. Adornment didn’t show anything spectacular at her latest trial, though perhaps they just didn’t go out there to break any track records. She’s yet to win first up (2:0-0-0) but she is unbeaten at this track/distance (1:1-0-0). Interestingly, she has changed stables, going from Grant and Alana Williams to Adam Durrant. Maybe the sea change will do her some good. She’s certainly in with a chance here.
10 – Truly Great
8 – Mafeking
3 – Red Hot Tip
6 – Adornment

Race 5 – Byron Bay Premium Lager Handicap – 1400m – 3:10pm

Inspirational Girl is a horse I’ve supported for a long time and it’s not hard to see why. She’s yet to finish outside the top three in her career (8:6-1-1). She seemed to be a bit vulnerable last start, where she perhaps just got too far back. She has drawn wide, so she could get back again, but as long as it’s no worst than mid-field, she should be ok as she has shown us she can run on from there. She drops 3kg due to the rise in class, though I wouldn’t say this race is any more difficult. She has placed at this track/distance before (1:0-1-0), but I’m hoping she can go one better here with her ability. True Attraction has also made the sea change from the Williams to Durrant stable. His trials were also a touch disappointing, but unlike his stablemate in the previous race, he has a better first up record (2:1-0-1). He also has quite good form, winning the listed Aquanita back in July. He’s yet to place at the track/distance (1:0-0-0), but he has won at this track (4:1-0-1) and distance (2:1-0-0), so it’s not like he doesn’t like this conditions. He will appreciate more distance next start, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see a Peters quinella here. Patristic has been racing well lately, recording two wins at of his previous two starts. Due to the step up in class and thanks to Kristy’s claim, he only has to carry 53kg. Like last start where he won, he’s drawn a good barrier here. At that start he also beat Inspirational Girl (who finished third) but does have to give her 2kg here as a result. While he’s yet to win at the track/distance (1:0-0-0) he does like this distance (4:2-0-1). He can win if my top tip gets a bit unlucky. Utgard Loki has been a bit off since June. Prior to that he had been racing really well. Those races were over longer distances, so I’m really surprised connections aren’t finding those sorts of races for him again. However, he does have a good record over this distance (6:2-0-1). The 60kg may have also been taking its toll, so it’s good to see him drop 2.5kg here due to the rise in class. Hoping we can see a glimpse of his former self here.
4 – Inspirational Girl
9 – True Attraction
5 – Patristic
3 – Utgard Loki

Race 6 – Crown Sports Bar Handicap – 1500m – 3:45pm

Tycoon Storm looks to be a very good horse in the making, with her only time outside the top three being at the end of last preparation and first up this time in (9:5-1-1). She’s unbeaten over this distance (2:2-0-0) but has yet to be tested at Ascot. The 60kg did look to be a hurdle, but she has won with 59.5kg before. With experience on her side, she’s a threat to my top tip (before Notorious One got scratched). Expressionist was recording career best results until he got way too far back last start. He’s drawn a much better carrier here, so hopefully, that doesn’t happen again. He’s yet to race at this track or distance, but he did win two starts ago over 1400m, so I don’t think the extra 100m here should be a problem, especially as he likes to run on from the back. Interestingly, Madi has chosen Butterlea Lad over this horse (assuming she was offered the ride first), because her claim on this horse certainly would have helped his chances. He can win this without surprising. Devoted Star really likes to run on from the back, but always either gets too far back or runs into trouble. She’s drawn wide here, so I’m worried that she might get back once again. The positive here is that we know that she does have a turn of foot and stepping up in distance will give her more time to run them down. She actually hasn’t raced at this distance before, but she has placed at Ascot (3:0-1-1). I’m very interested to see how she’ll go if she gets out! Rebel Knight was very disappointing first up, with nothing being written up in the stewards’ report. That was his first start back after ten months away from the track, so perhaps he just needed that run fitness wise. He certainly doesn’t have the best second up record (4:1-0-0), but he has placed at this track/distance before (2:0-2-0). He’s also drawn a nice barrier but has to carry 60.5kg. With so many varying factors, I’m interested to see how he goes.
2 – Tycoon Storm
4 – Expressionist
9 – Devoted Star
1 – Rebel Knight

Race 7 – Crown Perth 3yo Classic – 1000m – 4:20pm

This is the race we’ve all been waiting for and I’m getting excited just writing this preview! I really hope I’m wrong, but Gemma’s Son goes on top for me. He put in a really good performance first up and showed everyone that he was back just as good, if not better. The statistics don’t lie either, he’s unbeaten at this distance (3:3-0-0), track/distance (2:2-0-0) and second up (1:1-0-0). He’s drawn wide but has won from out there before. The biggest thing that swayed my decision was that the form surrounding his races is stronger than Clairvoyance. He also likes to lead and can run quick times, which will put the pressure on Clairvoyance, something she hasn’t faced before. Whatever happens, this race is going to be one to follow form wise this carnival! Clairvoyance is the clear favourite and this makes me very nervous! Her trial doesn’t look good on paper and I was hoping that people didn’t watch it too closely, but we all know she certainly wasn’t pushed at all in that trial and she still only finished 1.4 lengths off the winner. She has drawn wide too, so may even track Gemma’s Son into the race. If she doesn’t jump well, it very well could be game over though. The pressure from Gemma’s Son and maybe even Charleton Eddie is something she hasn’t experienced before and there’s an ever so small question mark about whether she’ll handle it. Getting 4.5kg on Gemma’s Son is certainly in our favour though. I feel like this is the test she/we need to confirm just how good she is. If she can handle my concerns, she can win this! Charleton Eddie looks to be in for another fantastic preparation. He’s won and placed second in two trials leading into this race. He loves this track (4:3-0-1) and is unbeaten over this track/distance (1:1-0-0). He also likes to lead, so I’m interested to see whether he’ll challenge Gemma’s Son and/or Clairvoyance for that position. The absolutely only negative is that he’s yet to win first up (1:0-0-1). Don’t forget about him though! Reign Of Fire seems to have been forgotten in what people think is a two horse race. He is unbeaten in his career (2:2-0-0) and looks to be ready to go this preparation, winning a trial leading into this race. That trial was over 1000m, so this distance isn’t too short for him, despite having never officially raced over it. The form surrounding his first race is also good, with Bragwell coming out a winning last week. He can win without surprising!
1 – Gemma’s Son
6 – Clairvoyance
2 – Charleton Eddie
3 – Reign Of Fire

Race 8 – Crown Towers Handicap – 1000m – 5:00pm

Real Grace won first up after coming off a good trial. She showed a fantastic turn of foot there, running an incredible last 600m time on a soft track. She’s drawn really wide here which is a concern, but I’m hoping her turn of foot will help her overcome this. She’s yet to place at this track/distance, but she’s arguing going better since the last time she faced these conditions. I’m really relying on that turn of foot to see her winning here. Chantorque also looks to be a good filly in the making. She’s yet to place outside the top two (2:1-1-0) and her trial leading into this race suggests that this statistic isn’t going to change here. Like my top tip, she is also very competitive weighted, carrying just 54kg. However, her advantage is that she has a much better barrier and stronger form surrounding her races. No reason why she can’t win. Miss Frost comes into this race without a trial, but she does have a good first up record (3:2-0-0). Her performances towards the end of last preparation were good, including placing second from a wide barrier, so hopefully, that won’t be too much of a problem here. The biggest thing in her favour is her track/distance record (3:2-1-0). All of her wins have come on a good track and it wouldn’t be a surprise if she won this. The only reason that she’s further down my list is that my top two tips are horses on the way up. Schoolhouse Rock clearly had had enough at the end of last preparation, so just put a line through that race. Other than that, his races have been very good (5:2-0-2). His trial leading into this race was ok, however, it was on a soft track and perhaps he didn’t appreciate that. He drops 4kg off last start run due to the rise in class but unfortunately, he had drawn wide. His track/distance record is good (2:1-0-1) as is his first up record (1:0-0-1). He should run a good race.
16 – Real Grace
15 – Chantorque
5 – Miss Frost
10 – Schoolhouse Rock

Race 9 – The Merrywell Handicap – 1200m – 5:38pm

She’s Alight was a horse I really liked last preparation and given just how even the field is here, I’m willing to take the chance seeing that she’s paying $23 (at the time of writing this). She comes into this race without a trial, but has won first up before (3:1-0-0). The thing I like about her most is her turn of foot, though from that barrier she shouldn’t get too far back. She likes this track (9:5-0-1) and has won at this track/distance before (4:2-0-0). I’d probably be more confident next start over a touch further, but fingers crossed my biggest value tip of the day can get up! Cliffs Of Comfort narrowly went down last start to Celebrity Queen. He’s unbeaten at this track/distance (1:1-0-0), with this distance being one of his favourites (4:3-1-0). He’s drawn extremely wide, so might have to use a bit of energy early on to get a forward position. At least he only has to carry 58kg with Chris’ claim. He can win this and is probably a safer bet. Puli ended last preparation and started this preparation with some of his best results! This race is probably one of the hardest he’s faced, but his distance record is great (6:3-2-0). He doesn’t have a turn of foot like some of these other horses, but from the front, he should be able to make his own luck. This’ll Testya will also be looking to go forward, ensuring that there is a lot of speed in this race. She got run down late last start, which does make me question whether she’s vulnerable over 1200m, especially as she’s yet to place at this distance (1:0-0-0) and third up (1:0-0-0). Besides the wide barrier, there’s really nothing to complain about. She rounds out a race where nearly anyone could win!
3 – She’s Alight
1 – Cliffs Of Comfort
5 – Puli
6 – This’ll Testya

Best Bet

Race 3 – Bonneville Black

Confidence rating

It’s actually not too bad this week, though it does decrease as the day goes on, with races 2 and 6 to 9 being the ones I’m most concerned about. Race 9 is definitely one to avoid, as you can make a case for nearly every horse. I’ve also gone for a lot of value in that race, so I’m hoping that pays off! I’m also hoping I’m wrong in race 7 because obviously, I’ll be cheering on Clairvoyance. Fingers crossed is a winning day all round!

Last Week’s Results

R1-quinella
R6-boxed first four
Winners in top 4 – 7/9
Top picks: 2nd, -, 3rd, 1st, -, 2nd, 3rd, 2nd, –
Best bet: –
Profit: -6.3