Ascot 10/04/2021

Conditions

Rail – 5m
Track – Good 4
Forecast – Max 30 degrees, sunny

Race 1 – TABtouch – Westspeed Platinum Autumn Series Heat 2 – 1100m – 11:58pm

1 – Prized Nemesis
4 – City Circle
3 – Fiery Water
6 – Warbler

Comment: Prized Nemesis is coming off a good win and conditions look to be pretty similar here. No reason he can’t go back-to-back. City Circle has slightly stronger form lines than Prized Nemesis but isn’t racing as consistently. Fiery Water had excuses first up but still didn’t finish far off the winner. Warbler looks to be wanting a soft track but has won a trial leading into this race.

Suggested bet: Prized Nemesis and City Circle – each way

Race 2 – Pepsi Max Handicap – 1600m – 12:34pm

6 – Standout Rose
2 – Eurasia
1 – Notorious One
4 – Sluice Box

Comments: Standout Rose is up in distance but has only placed outside of the top 3 once (6:2-2-1). Eurasia looked to have gotten way too far back last start. With the small field that won’t happen here and he has placed at this track/distance before (2:0-1-1). Notorious One is unbeaten second up (1:1-0-0) and has won at this track/distance (2:1-0-0). The 60kg just looks like a big ask. Sluice Box is placing consistently at Ascot and had excuses last start, but may just be outclassed slightly here.

Suggested bet: Standout Rose and Eurasia – each way

Race 3 – Cool Ridge Handicap – 1200m – 1:19pm

2 – Kaptain Kaos
8 – Let’s Cut Loose
7 – How’s The Serenity
5 – Critical Altitude

Comment: Kaptain Koas is looking to make it three wins in a row. He’s up in class but looks to have ability. Let’s Cut Loose is coming off a winning trial and race this preparation. Having Pike riding is always a positive. How’s The Serenity is coming off a win but Pike jumps off in favour of Let’s Cut Loose. This track is probably her favourite though (2:1-0-1). Critical Altitude finished second behind How’s The Serenity at her first run. She should only improve off it in what is a very even field here!

Suggested bet: Kaptain Kaos, Let’s Cut Loose, How’s The Serenity and Critical Altitude – each way

Race 4 – Crown Perth Plate – 1100m – 1:59pm

1 – Ain’t No Other Man
3 – Featherweight
8 – Plemont
7 – Awesome Rival

Comment: Ain’t No Other Man won first up in a nice fashion. He’s drawn barrier one so should get another ideal run. Featherweight is coming out of listed company where he didn’t disgrace himself. He’s got some of the strongest form lines and probably got a touch too far back last start. He can bounce back here. Plemont missed the kick last start and was beaten by what looks to be a very good horse. She’ll improve here with one run under her belt. Awesome Rival finished second behind Ain’t No Other Man last start. She probably showed her inexperience but the winkers on here may lead to an improvement. You can make a case for many horses in this open maiden race!

Suggested bet: Ain’t No Other Man, Featherweight, Plemont and Awesome Rival – each way

Race 5 – Amelia Park Handicap – 1600m – 2:38pm

5 – Adornment
4 – That’s Funny Az
1 – Cockney Crew
7 – Bogart

Comment: Adornment is probably looking for further and is yet to win first up (3:0-0-0), which is slightly concerning but she has the class. That’s Funny Az is flying at the moment and looking to make it three wins in a row. He’s unbeaten at this track/distance (1:1-0-0) and only has to carry 56kg with Madi’s claim. I can see why he’s the favourite. Cockney Crew blew them out of the water at his latest trial, winning by 10L and another good margin the trial before. I just worry how well this will hold up and whether 61.5kg is going to get the better of him. Bogart has good form lines and has been racing consistently.

Suggested bet: Adornment, That’s Funny Az, Cockney Crew and Bogart – each way

Race 6 – Solo Zero Handicap – 1200m – 3:15pm

9 – Angelic Miss
3 – Some Sort
8 – Absolute
10 – Beau Zoom

Comment: Angelic Miss showed she had a good turn of foot last preparation, as long as she can get out. She had a nice trial leading into this race and has won first up before (2:1-0-1) and over this track/distance (3:1-1-0). Absolute obviously loves to run from the back because that’s always where he ends up. If he can get out, he does have a turn of foot and he has a great track/distance record (4:1-2-0). I’m just worried he’ll get stuck on the fence from barrier one but Pike can work his magic. Some Sort finished third behind Amasenus last start, which looks to be good form to follow. He’ll improve off that run fitness wise and the blinkers should help him settle if he’s going to lead. Beau Zoom is up in class but narrowly tasted defeat last time. He has previously won at this track/distance too (3:1-1-0).

Suggested bet: Angelic Miss and Absolute – each way

Race 7 – Marjorie Charleson Classic – 1200m – 3:50pm

9 – Clairvoyance
3 – Platinum Bullet
2 – Cryptic Love
5 – Ladies Of London

Comment: Clairvoyance thought she was too good last start and that was her undoing. Haha the second place probably snapped a few of the owners back to reality too. She’ll be fitter off that run and can bounce back here. I’m not concerned about the one week back up. Platinum Bullet finished second to Clairvoyance last start. She was finishing off really strongly too and will appreciate the extra 100m, which is a slight concern for me. Cryptic Love is hit and miss but is coming out of some strong races. Ladies Of London is up in class but has been racing consistently. I suspect she could even end up sitting outside of Clairvoyance. She’s a sneaky place chance.

Suggested bet: Clairvoyance and Platinum Bullet – each way

Race 8 – Schweppes-W.A.T.C. Derby– 2400m – 4:30pm

1 – Western Empire
8 – Temptacion
9 – Reliable Star
6 – Lunar Impact

Comment: Western Empire does have a wide barrier but probably should be winning this on class alone. Temptacion ran well in the Oaks and won the two races before that by a good margin. I’m interested to see what she can do here. Reliable Star didn’t have the ideal run in the Oaks but was racing well before that. Lunar Impact won the Oaks, a key lead up race. From barrier one she’ll be giving them something to chase once again.

Suggested bet: Western Empire – win

Race 9 – Furphy Handicap – 1400m – 5:10pm

4 – Downforce
7 – Bruce Almighty
8 – Creator
11 – Pretty Friar

Comment: Downforce didn’t finish far off the winner at all last start, after racing wide. I’m slightly concerned that from barrier 11, he’ll get too far back but he has shown a great turn of foot over 1200m. In an even race, I’m happy to have him at $10. Bruce Almighty was disappointing last start with nothing written in the stewards’ report. He drops back to a distance he loves at Ascot (7:2-2-1) and he has a good barrier, so we should see an improved performance. Creator looks to be finding his groove here in WA. He ran a nice race behind Amasenus last start, finishing second, which looks good form to follow. Pretty Friar has been racing well, though be it in a much lower class. She’s won first up before (2:1-0-0) and is great value at $20!

Suggested bet: Downforce – place

Best Bet

Race 8 – Western Empire

Confidence rating

My confidence is a little low this week. Races 3, 4, 5 and 9 looks to be particularly nasty when it comes to picking a winner. Race 6 is pretty even too. I feel like I’m not being very brave by having Western Empire as my best bet, but it really is the race I’m most confident about. I wish I could be as confident with Clairvoyance, but hopefully, she returns to her winning ways.

Last Week’s Results

R5 – quinella (with the scratching of Charleton Eddie)
R9 – quinella
Winners in top 4- 5/9
Top picks: 1st, -, -, -, 2nd, 3rd, 2nd, -, 2nd
Best bet: 2nd
Profit: -9.36 ($1ew on top tips and $2ew on bb)