Horse Racing,  Tipping

Ascot 09/11/2019

Conditions

Rail – True
Track – Good 4
Forecast – Max 40 degrees, very hot, chance of thunderstorm in the afternoon with little or no rain

Race 1 – CBRE Supports Cystic Fibrosis Plate – 1100m – 2:00pm

Too Spicy won last start and seems to be improving with each run, also she has experience over the maiden horses. Datalka has always placed behind To Spicy and with the weight swing, he might finally be able to turn the tables. Our Danni has won two trials leading into this race and gets Pike on board. Choix De Lace has also won two trials but one of them was over 850m which I like.
1 – Too Spicy
2 – Datalka
9 – Our Danni
6 – Choix De Lace

Race 2 – TabTouch – Better Your Bet Handicap – 1600m – 2:30pm

Paradise Square is on the one-week backup after winning at Kalgoorlie. He’s been racing well in Kalgoorlie, so I’m interested to see what he brings to the city. Harry Thomas won last start but has been racing pretty consistently. He is down in weights, up in class and does have a new jockey on board in Troy Turner. Forceful was disappointing two starts ago, though last start was good when he dropped down in class. He’s just a bit hit and miss for me and I would have certainly liked him on a softer track. Midnight Sky certainly isn’t performing at her best.
5 – Paradise Square
4 – Harry Thomas
2 – Forceful
6 – Midnight Sky

Race 3 – Hemponics Australia Handicap – 1400m – 3:10pm

Western Temple has been racing very well and even though he steps up in class he should do well. Abdicator clearly didn’t handle the track at Kalgoorlie and he has the ability to bounce back here. Properantes trial was very disappointing leading into this race but he did come second in a listed race last preparation. Special Delivery will be having his 50th start and has done alright in his previous two starts.
5 – Western Temple
4 – Abdicator
3 – Properantes
8 – Special Delivery

Race 4 – Conquer Cystic Fibrosis Plate – 1100m – 3:40pm

This is a very strong race and you could make a case for nearly every horse, but I’m going with Drinkwhatyoulike on top. She’s one the one week back up but I think she’s definitely a horse with some ability. Massimo jumps up in the weights a lot but he’s another classy horse. Pretty Style has never placed outside of the top 3 in her whole career and no reason why today would be the day for this to stop. Silkinize beat Drinkwhatyoulike two starts ago and gets a 1.5kg swing, so it wouldn’t be a surprise if he won.
6 – Drinkwhatyoulike
1 – Massimo
7 – Pretty Style
5 – Silkinize

Race 5 – Glenroy Chaff Handicap – 1000m – 4:10pm

Tawny Pete won his trial and was performing very well last preparation. Beautiful Mind comes into the race without a trial but was racing consistently well last preparation. Mcedith seems to be enjoying her move to WA with career-best performances in her last three starts. Misty Lad has been placed fourth in four of his five previous starts (last start she got fifth). Dropping down in class and distance may help him here.
6 – Tawny Pete
5 – Beautiful Mind
9 – Mcedith
3 – Misty Lad

Race 6 – Amelia Park Handicap – 1400m – 4:50pm

Smarty is another horse in the one-week backup, having won her previous three starts. Her runs before those wins were also good. Forgotten Star had a run last start that I’m willing to forgive, especially as she was first up there and has listed race form from last preparation. Son of Bacchus should appreciate the step up in distance after getting too far back last start but finishing strongly. Baramagic is the horse to tip if you’re looking for value, being up in class and having ok form. However, he showed an amazing turn of foot last start.
7 – Smarty
10 – Forgotten Star
5 – Son of Bacchus
13 – Baramagic

Race 7 – Ballpoint Construction – Fairetha Stakes – 1400m – 5:25pm

Jericho Missile’s turn of foot was just breath-taking last start and he definitely deserves to be favourite here. Red Can Man beat Niccovi two starts ago who placed second at Flemington on Thursday, so that’s pretty good form. He’s also only placed outside of the top 3 once, which was last start where he came fourth. War Saint is one to watch if the pacemakers are winning at this stage, plus he also has some respectable form. Dig Deep had a forgivable run two starts ago, but if he can bring his Karrakatta form, he can certainly surprise, plus he was finishing off strongly last start.
2 – Jericho Missile
3 – Red Can Man
6 – War Saint
1 – Dig Deep

Race 8 – WAROA – Lee Steere Stakes – 3yo Classic – 1400m – 5:59pm

Achernar Star was just flying home last start coming second behind The Velvet King. If he can get a better spot during the run, he’s a huge threat. The Velvet King trialled very nicely on Monday and won last start. He has an amazing distance record (6:5-1-0) and I’ll be looking for him to finish strongly before we head to the Railway. Arcadia Prince hasn’t raced for a year, but he has a lot going for him including great form last year, a nice trial leading into this race, Pike and being a full brother to Arcadia Queen. It wouldn’t be a surprise at all to see him winning. Gatting has class over these horses and comes off an amazing Melbourne campaign. My only question is whether the travel has affected him.
4 – Achernar Star
5 – The Velvet King
6 – Arcadia Prince
1 – Gatting

Race 9 – Crown Sports Bar Handicap – 1200m – 6:30pm

Uni Time is just a horse I love and I’m hoping he can repeat last start’s winning performance. BlackSabbath ran second to Uni Time last start and gets a 2kg swing but I’m not sure he can turn the tables. Dance Music perhaps needed that run given that her performances last preparation was very good. Why Choose Her has been racing consistently well and the wide barrier isn’t a concern.
4 – Uni Time
9 – Black Sabbath
1 – Dance Music
13 – Why Choose Her


Best Bet

Race 9 – Uni Time

Confidence rating

The very hot weather has me a little bit concerned as I just don’t know how the horses will react to it. I’ve also tried to find a bit of value today. If you’re looking for a real roughie, Oreo (9) in race 4 ticks the box.

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