Horse Racing,  Tipping

Ascot 09/01/2021

Conditions

Rail – 2m
Track – Good 4
Forecast – Max 37 degrees, partly cloudy

Race 1 – Salinger Maiden – 1400m – 3:20pm

I Hope You Dance was a bit disappointing last start with nothing in the stewards’ report. Perhaps he just didn’t handle the soft track first up. His form last preparation was good, and he has placed at this track/distance before (2:0-1-0). He has a good second up record (2:0-2-0) and Pike jumps back on board. He’s yet to win in seventeen starts (17:0-7-2), has drawn wide and rises 3kg off last start’s run. He’s knocking on the door for a win. Keep It Hush has really improved at his last two starts, recording a third and a second. Maybe things have clicked for him, he likes Ascot (2:0-1-1) or he prefers settling in a forward position. From barrier two, I suspect him and I Hope You Dance will be side by side. This horse’s form could be stronger but no reason why he won’t finish in the first few. Oceanzara recorded her career best result last start with a second at Pinjarra (5:0-1-1). Not much really to fault other than her weaker form lines. I do worry that she might get stuck on the fence from barrier one, but she has shown previously that she can run on. The step up in distance should benefit her too. I’m surprised to see her open as favourite but she can run a cheeky race. Kirigami is a bit of a hit and miss horse. Her second two starts ago at Pinjarra was good, but we haven’t really seen anything else this preparation. She did have a few excuses and perhaps with a better barrier we’ll see an improvement. She’s never placed at this track before (5:0-0-0) which is a red flag. I think she’ll find one or two better here.
5 – I Hope You Dance
1 – Keep It Hush
8 – Oceanzara
7 – Kirigami

Race 2 – Amelia Park Lodge Plate – 1200m – 3:55pm

Heavenly Waters is unbeaten in her career, winning at her maiden start after coming off a winning trial. That race was back in November, so there is a slight question mark over why her races have been spaced and where she’s at fitness wise. She rises 2.5kg off that win but has a lovely barrier and Pike takes the ride. She’s a horse on the way up! Sniparoochy is also unbeaten in her career (1:1-0-0) and won a trial leading into that race too. She won her race by a way bigger margin than Heavenly Waters, which does make me nervous. She also drops 1kg off that win. She has drawn wide so will need to use some energy early on to lead like she did last start. She’ll definitely be giving them something to run down but I think Heavenly Waters’ race was slightly stronger form wise and I’m hoping this will be the winning difference. Ex Sport Man finished second to Sniparoochy last start but doesn’t get any weight on her here as a result. Besides from not being unbeaten like my top two tips, it’s hard to fault him. He’s drawn nicely and will only improve with one run under his belt. I just think it’s a battle between two here. Hoi An is one of four maiden runners here, but the only one in my top four. Her trials have been good (a win and a third) down at Albany, but they didn’t look to have particularly strong horses in them. She can surprise but my top two look hard to beat.
1 – Heavenly Waters
5 – Sniparoochy
2 – Ex Sport Man
7 – Hoi An

Race 3 – Crown Towers Plate – 1600m – 4:25pm

Tambora won in fabulous fashion at his first ever start and looks to be in for a good preparation after winning a trial leading into that race. From barrier one, he maps to find the front easily and Pike jumping on board is always a positive. The extra 100m shouldn’t be a problem at all and while this is his toughest race to date, he looks to be a champion in the making. He looks to start off a very good day for Impressive Racing. La Farola won last start with Pike riding, who has now jumped ship which gives me a bit of confidence. However, Chris is riding extremely well and partnered with the horse to finish second two start ago. This horse has more experience than Tambora (6:2-2-0) and a good turn of foot. The wide barrier would be the only chink in her armour, but her turn of foot should help her overcome this if she gets too far back. She’s a huge threat to my top tip. Chili Is Hot hasn’t been racing at her best this preparation. There have been a few excuses in the stewards’ report, and she has gotten back, but we haven’t seen that great turn of foot she showed last preparation. She gets 1.5kg on La Farola since they last met (La Farola won and she finished sixth), though I don’t think this is enough on its own to turn the tables. She’s third up here so should be fit and has a decent barrier. She can bounce back to her winning ways here. Port Beach was disappointing last start, finishing last at Pinjarra, but given her two previous performances, I’m willing to forgive that run. She’s unbeaten at this distance (1:1-0-0) and should get into a better position here from that barrier. She also drops 2.5kg off last start’s run. Just think she’ll find one better here.
6 – Tambora
1 – La Farola
2 – Chili Is Hot
9 – Port Beach

Race 4 – TABtouch – Westspeed Platinum Handicap – 1000m – 4:55pm

Wilchino gets in very low in the weights which is one of the things that makes her very attractive. She also has great career statistics (3:1-0-1) and is unbeaten at this track/distance (1:1-0-0), with those conditions being last start. My only concern is that she had drawn wide and there does look to be a bit of speed in this race, so she may get further back than she would like. She’s a horse on the way up. Cuballing had a quiet trial leading into this race which he finished second in. His form is slightly better than Wilchino, as is his career statistics (4:2-1-0). All of his starts have also been over this distance. He’s won first up before (2:1-0-0) but will definitely be hitting his straps next start. No reason why he can’t win. Jaguar Greg does her best work fresh and that was proven once again with a win first up. Her second up record is just as good (2:1-1-0) and she’s placed at this track/distance before (1:0-1-0). She’s up in class so does drop 2kg on last start’s run. The form surrounding her races is the only thing letting her down. Alien From Mars won at this class last start and as a result, has to carry an extra 2kg here. He seems to do better when he’s drawn inside, so that is a positive here. He also seems to have a turn of foot as long as he can get out. This is one of his toughest races to date but he could surprise.
13 – Wilchino
1 – Cuballing
10 – Jaguar Grey
7 – Alien From Mars

Race 5 – Easingwold Stakes – 1400m – 5:25pm

Son Of A God has career statistics that make him an owners dream (9:6-0-1). The form surrounding those wins are also particularly strong. He’s unbeaten second up (1:1-0-0) and at Ascot (3:3-0-0). He also won a race leading into this one. What might be his undoing is the wide barrier and the fact that he’s yet to race beyond 1200m. If he can these factors, he has the ability and class to win this. Dig Deep has been improving with each run this preparation and looks ready to make it back to back wins here. Pike rides and he drops 1.5kg off last start due to the rise in class. He also has an advantage over Son Of A God in that he’s drawn a much better barrier and he’s proven at this track/distance (3:1-1-1). He can win this race hands down and he’s a threat to my top tip! Abdicator could be a bit of a dark horse in this race. He finished third behind Son Of A God in a trial leading into this race. Last preparation he seemed a bit off, though did compete in higher class races. The decrease in class does mean he has to carry 60.5kg, which is a big ask for any horse. What is in his favour is his barrier, first up record (7:1-4-0) and track/distance record (2:1-0-1). At great value you can’t rule him out. Harry Thomas hasn’t raced since November, but he does go well fresh, so this break could be on his side. This time last year he was racing very well and he always tries his hardest. It’s a bit concerning that he’s yet to win at this track/distance (10:0-2-3) and he will only improve when he steps up to 1600/1800m. Sneaky place chance.
6 – Son Of A God
3 – Dig Deep
2 – Abdicator
4 – Harry Thomas

Race 6 – Kirin Megumi Handicap – 1400m – 5:55pm

Solaia is coming into this race off a win. She was tested in the group 3 Champion Fillies and group 2 WA Guineas, but things just didn’t seem to go her way. She then dropped down to listed grade and finished second in the Lee Steere. So despite stepping up in class to a 66+ here, I have no doubt she’ll be able to handle it. She hasn’t drawn inside for a while, so I’ll be interested to see where she settles. She drops down in distance but has placed at this track/distance before (2:0-1-0). She loves to run for Lucy and looks to be very well placed here. Last Of The Line does have better career statistics than Solaia, having never placed outside of the top three (4:3-0-1). He’s unbeaten first up (2:2-0-0) and at this track/distance (2:2-0-0). Another feather in his cap is that he won a trial leading into this race. I have no doubt that he can win this, but he’s drawn wide and I think Solaia has better form surrounding her races. Absolutely don’t rule this horse out though. Sassy Trader is another horse with great career statistics (6:1-2-2). He has a lot going in his favour, including his barrier, Pike jumps on board and due to the rise in class, he drops 2kg off last start’s run. He steps up to 1400m for the first time but given how he’s been racing over 1200m, I think he’s ready for this distance. Nothing to complain about so he should run a good race. Comfort Me hasn’t been at his best this preparation but did have a few excuses first up and looked to have gotten too far back last start. I do question whether he’s more a Belmont horse, as he’s yet to place at Ascot (2:0-0-0). However, he has won at this distance before (2:1-0-0). From barrier eight he might get a bit far back again, but there doesn’t look to be a lot of speed in the race. He rounds out an even top four!
8 – Solaia
7 – Last Of The Line
9 – Sassy Trader
6 – Comfort Me

Race 7 – Glenroy Chaff Handicap – 1600m – 6:25pm

No Surrender looks to be the obvious leader in this race and will certainly be giving them all something to run down. He’s drawn perfectly in barrier one, so should find the front easily. At his past two runs, he’s just found one better, but he’s definitely in career best form. He also gets a 1.5kg on Regal Magic, finishing second to his win last start. His form could be slightly stronger, and I’d be more confident if he was racing on a soft track. However, I’d be disappointed if he didn’t at least place. Our Idyll finished second to Solaia last start, which looks to be good form based on my previous race analysis. She seems to be really appreciating the 1600m, recording career best results at her last four starts. It’s her versatility to lead or sit back and run on with her turn of foot that makes her a huge threat to No Surrender. She also gets Pike riding for the first time. I’m not at all surprised to see her open as the favourite. Beat The Bro is really on fire at the moment, having not placed outside of the top three since his third career start (11:2-5-2). He steps up to 1600m for the first time, but given how he won over 1500m last start, I can’t see the extra 100m being a problem. He’s drawn perfectly in barrier five, drops 1.5kg off last start’s run and has a turn of foot. The only reason he’s third on my list is that he’s been racing in slightly weaker company. No reason why he can’t win. Regal Magic has been improving with each run this preparation and should be spot on fitness wise here after having 62 weeks off prior to this preparation. She beat No Surrender last start as I previously mentioned, and I don’t think that weight swing alone is enough to make a difference. She’s placed at this distance before (2:0-1-1) and won at Ascot (4:1-1-0) but never faced these two factors together. The only concern for me is the wide barrier, but she did place second from barrier nine two starts ago. At $9 she’s good value is this incredibly open race!
6 – No Surrender
1 – Our Idyll
2 – Beat The Bro
11 – Regal Magic

Race 8 – Morley Growers Market Handicap – 1200m – 6:55pm

Excellent Dream’s only bad run for a while was at the end of last preparation where he had excuses and probably enough for that preparation. He bounced back placing second first up after being beaten late. He’s won second up before (2:1-1-0) and placed at this track/distance (1:0-1-0). My only concern is the 60.5kg is a big ask and he hasn’t raced since the 16th December. He should be right in the finish though. Mood Swings actual brings similar from to this race as Excellent Dream as they both finished second to Leica Jaguar, though in different races. She does her best work fresh and was probably strung out a bit too long last preparation. She’s won over this distance before (2:1-0-1) and placed second up (1:0-1-0). The only thing stopping her from winning is the wide barrier. Dew West is an interesting horse as she was racing quite well in lower classes but can’t quite make the step up to Saturday class. She drops in class here after certainly not disgracing herself last start, finishing 1.4L off the winner. The drop is class does mean she rises 3kg. At least she has Pike to guide her from that good barrier and she has won at this distance before (4:1-0-1), though never this track/distance (2:0-0-0). She may just find one better here. Downforce hasn’t lived up to expectations this preparation after winning a trial. There haven’t been any excuses in the stewards’ report, though the races were of a slightly higher quality. He’s third up so will be fit and has placed at this track/distance before (3:0-0-2). His barrier is also an advantage. Connections will need to see an improvement here.
1 – Excellent Dream
8 – Mood Swings
4 – Dew West
6 – Downforce


Best Bet

Race 3 – Tambora

Confidence rating

There are some very evenly matched races in races 2, 3, 5, 7 and 8, with race 7 looking particularly brutal. One thing I am confident about is that it looks to be a good day for Impressive Racing.

Last Week’s Results

R1-quinella
R8-boxed first four
Winners in top 4 – 8/9
Top picks: 2nd, 2nd, -, 3rd, -, 3rd, 1st, 2nd, –
Best bet: 1st
Profit: -7.4

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