Ascot 08/05/2021

Conditions

Rail – 9m
Track – Soft 5
Forecast – Max 22 degrees, mostly sunny

Race 1 – Morley Growers Market Handicap – 1800m – 12:19pm

3 – Beret
2 – Notorious One
5 – No Apology
4 – Koranis

Comment: Beret has shown a great turn of foot at her past two starts. With the small field, this should make her lethal and she’s knocking on the door for a win. She’s never placed outside the top three on a soft track too (3:1-1-1).  Notorious One was disappointing last start but had a few excuses in the stewards’ report. He’s up in class so down in the weights and again the small field should benefit him. No Apology rarely puts in a poor performance. Just a slight question mark over whether he’s more a 1600m horse. Koranis actually beat Beret last start but his soft track record isn’t as good as her’s (4:1-0-0).

Suggested bet: Beret, Notorious One and No Apology – each way

Race 2 – TABtouch – Westspeed Platinum Handicap – 1400m – 12:59pm

2 – Born To Try
1 – Fiery Water
4 – Hip Wiggle
7 – Petite La Femme

Comment: Born To Try showed a good turn of foot last start at Bunbury over 2000 back in March. She hasn’t had a trial leading into this race but has won at this distance (2:1-1-0) and on a soft track (5:1-2-0) and placed first up before (3:0-1-1). Fiery Water returned lame last start, so just put a line through that run. That was his only time outside of the top three on a soft track (4:1-0-2) so hopefully, he can bounce back here. Hip Wiggle is up in class but has placed third at her previous three starts. She’s also placed on a soft track before (3:0-2-1). Petite La Femme hasn’t been her usual self lately but has had excuses in the stewards’ report. She’s faced hard company, so I’m interested to see how she’ll go here. She’ll only have to carry a competitive 52kg with Madi’s claim too.

Suggested bet: Born To Try – each way

Race 3 – Happy 70th Terry Brennan Plate – 1100m – 1:39pm

4 – Written Exceed
2 – Flying Missile
3 – Ultimate Command
6 – Astrape

Comment: Written Exceed provided his trial form was just as good, winning at his first start. Clint takes over from Pike who is riding over east, but this horse should improve with one run under his belt. Flying Missile has great career statistics (6:2-2-1) and has faced some good horses. Conditions look to suit. The only concern is he’s yet to race on a soft track. Ultimate Command improved last start after dropping back in class and leading. He should easily find the front and give them something to run down. This is a very classy race though. Astrape finished third behind Flying Missile and Ultimate Command last start, which looks like good form to follow. She’s yet to finish outside of the top three, but is still looking for her maiden win (3:0-1-2)

Suggested bet: Written Exceed, Flying Missile, Ultimate Command and Astrape – each way

Race 4 – Amelia Park Handicap – 1200m – 2:19pm

1 – Chantorque
2 – First Law
3 – Phanta
7 – Sheza Chalmer

Comment: Chantorque is a classy horse, beating the likes of Charleton Eddie last preparation. She’s won second up before (2:1-1-0) and placed on a soft track (1:0-1-0). The 60.5kg is a concern though. First Law’s only bad race was in the WA Guineas where he was his own worst enemy. We did see him bounce back though and has placed second first up in this preparation. He gets the blinkers on here and that could see him go one better. Phanta looks to be in for a good preparation after placing second first up. He’s untested on a soft track, so just a few question marks surrounding that. Sheza Chalmer was a touch disappointing after finishing fifth to First Law’s second. She was racing much better last preparation, so hopefully, she bounces back to that form here.

Suggested bet: Chantorque, First Law, Phanta and Sheza Chalmer – each way

Race 5 – Events At Ascot Handicap – 1000m – 2:55pm

1 – Panzdown
3 – City Circle
5 – Drinkwhatyoulike
9 – Jag The Joker

Comment: Panzdown is looking to make it three wins in a row. He loves this distance (3:2-1-0), is unbeaten at this track/distance (1:1-0-0) and has won on a soft track (3:2-1-0). He’s third up so will be nearly spot on fitness wise. The 60kg is a concern though. City Circle got blocked for the entire length of the straight last start, so just put a line through that run. Before that, she was racing really well and she’s no stranger to this track/distance (8:1-2-3). The soft track may just get the better of her (8:0-1-0). Drinkwhatyoulike finished second to Panzdown and gets 4kg on him here, partly due to Laqdar’s claim. Her form probably isn’t as strong but at least she’s won at this track/distance (5:1-2-0) and on a soft track (4:2-0-0). Jag The Joker finished third behind Notorious One three starts ago, which is pretty good form, otherwise her form has been mixed. She’s placed at this track/distance (1:0-0-1) and on a soft track (5:1-1-1).

Suggested bet: Panzdown, City Circle and Drinkwhatyoulike – each way

Race 6 – Crown Perth Handicap – 1200m – 3:25pm

9 – Angelic Miss
6 – Glasgow Girl
1 – Moschard
3 – Some Sort

Comment: Angelic Miss run on from near last to finish second first up. She’s previously shown a good turn of foot, placed second up before (1:0-1-0) and is unbeaten on a soft track (1:1-0-0). Hopefully, she can go one better here. Glasgow Girl beat Angelic Miss last start. Her form prior was a bit mixed, and she’s drawn wide here. She’s no stranger to a soft track (7:1-3-1) though. Moschard did well last start to finish second from barrier 11. He’s drawn wide again here but loves a soft track (6:2-1-1). 61kg is a big ask though. Some Sort didn’t seem to handle Albany last start. He’ll appreciate returning to Ascot, having placed at this track/distance (3:0-0-2) and a soft track (3:1-0-1).

Suggested bet: Angelic Miss and Glasgow Girl – each way

Race 7 – Eurythmic Stakes – 2150m – 3:55pm

8 – Final Chill
4 – Marocchino
1 – Come Play With Me
5 – Big Shot Daddy

Comment: Final Chill didn’t seem to handle the extra distance last start down at Albany. He steps back in distance and returns to Ascot (4:3-0-0). His soft track record (6:1-1-0) is the only thing that concerns me. I’m willing to risk it for $10/1 though. Marocchino is looking to make it four wins in a row. He’s unbeaten at this track/distance (1:1-0-0) and beat a few of these horses last start, though does have to give them 2kg here. Conditions look to suit and he’s a huge threat to my top tip. Come Play With Me finished third behind Marocchino and Trap For Fools last start. His second up record (6:0-0-1) and 62kg does concern me, but if the track is choppy by now, he’ll handle it. Big Shot Daddy has really turned a corner at his last three starts at Geraldton. I’m just not sure how that form is going to hold up here.

Suggested bet: Final Chill, Marocchino and Come Play With Me – each way

Race 8 – Cannaponics Handicap – 1600m – 4:25pm

5 – Sentimental Queen
3 – Magic Will Reign
6 – Eurasia
8 – Sluice Box

Comment: Sentimental Queen is up in class but coming off a strong win. Even though she’s yet to place at this distance (3:0-0-0), I think she could surprise here. Magic Will Reign got a bit too far back at his first start this preparation. He’s got a slightly better barrier here and only has to carry 57.5kg due to Laqdar’s claim. I’m interested to see how well his Kalgoorlie form holds up here. Eurasia rarely puts in a bad race as long as he doesn’t get too far back, which we saw three starts ago. He’s knocking on the door for a win at this track/distance (4:0-1-3). Sluice Box got too far back last start, so put a line through that run. He’s drawn wide again so I do worry he’ll get back, but he does have a good track/distance record (2:0-1-1).

Suggested bet: Sentimental Queen, Magic Will Reign, Eurasia and Sluice Box – each way

Race 9 – Conquer Cystic Fibrosis Handicap – 1500m – 5:00pm

11 – Billy Ain’t Silly
12 – Bruce Almighty
5 – Creator
4 – Tinsnip

Comment: Billy Ain’t Silly is up in class and slightly in distance, but he’s been handling everything they’ve thrown at home. He also carries a competitive 52.5kg thanks to Laqdar’s claim. No reason why he can’t make it four wins in a row. Bruce Almighty had faced tougher company than Billy Ain’t Silly but isn’t as consistent. His pet distance is 1400m so the extra 100m shouldn’t be a problem, but the soft track might be (6:0-0-2). Creator is looking to make it three wins in a row, after beating Bruce Almighty at his last two starts. He’s hard to fault other than his soft track record (2:0-0-0). Tinsnip is up in class but looks to be well suited here, after coming off a win from barrier 2. That race suggests that he should be ok from barrier 1 as long as he doesn’t get stuck on the rail. Not without his chances.

Suggested bet: Billy Ain’t Silly – each way

Best Bet

Race 2 – Born To Try

Confidence rating

My confidence varies throughout the day. Races 3, 4, 7 and 8 are particularly nasty. Billy Ain’t Silly seems like a good best bet, but I feel that he’s a bit vulnerable at $1.90 for the win. Hoping my value tips in Written Exceed (especially as I tossed up for ages between him and Flying Missile) and Final Chill pay off.

Last Week’s Results

R1-First four
R2-Boxed trifecta
R4-quinella
R7-exacta
Winners in top 4- 6/9
Top picks: 1st, 1st, 1st, 2nd, -, 2nd, 1st, -, –
Best bet: 2nd
Profit: +1.7 ($1ew on top tips & $2ew on bb)