Ascot 08/01/2022

Conditions

Rail – 9m
Track – Good 4
Forecast – Max 34 degrees, sunny

Race 1 – Magic Millions Plate – 1000m – 12:27pm

5 – Lucky Sue
8 – Pierra Art
9 – She’s Greysful
1 – Frantic War

Comment: Lucky Sue didn’t finish that far off the winner at her first run where she finished second. Her trials suggest that she has some ability, so she can go one better her. Pierra Art had just the one trial which she narrowly lost. It’s hard to tell her ability off just one trial, but she’ll be looking to follow in the footsteps of her dam, Art Series. She’s Greysful improved with each trial including one over 1000m which suggests that distance won’t be too short for her here. She’s a healthy each way chance at $12. Frantic War is in an almost identical situation to She’s Greysful. This horse beat Pierra Art at their last trial. Nothing to suggest that he can’t win in this incredibly open race with so many maidens.

Suggested bet: Lucky Sue, Pierra Art, She’s Greysful and Frantic War – each way

Race 2 – TABtouch – Westspeed Platinum Handicap – 1400m – 1:07pm

1 – Blazing Away
9 – Sea Waif
6 – Snippy Miss
3 – All In Red

Comment: Blazing Away looks to be hitting his peak right now if his last start and previous preparation is anything to go off. 60kg is a slight concern but he did finish second with that weight last start, though be it in a slightly weaker field. Hopefully, the weight doesn’t hold him back too much. Sea Waif will be giving them something to run down. Her distance record is good (6:0-3-2) and from barrier 1 she should easily find the front. She’s up in class here but should go well. Snippy Miss is always in the finish but can’t quite get the chocolates. Her track/distance record could be better (7:0-2-0) and I hope she doesn’t get too far back from barrier 8. Her form is some of the best in this race though, so she could surprise. All In Red comes into this race without a trial and I suspect she’ll need the run fitness wise. Her distance record is good (6:2-2-0) but her form might just let her down.

Suggested bet: Blazing Away – each way

Race 3 – Neville Forward Memorial Plate – 1400m – 1:47pm

8 – The Velvet Queen
1 – Hear Me Sing
7 – Extra Secret
9 – Uni Queen

Comment: The Velvet Queen looks to have a tonne of ability but just wasn’t suited to last start’s race. Uni Queen and Border Force have both come out and won since she beat them. Whether the 1400m leaves her a touch vulnerable, we’re about to find out. Breeding suggests that she should handle it though because 1400m was The Velvet King’s best distance. I’m yet to hear from Darren, but I think she can bounce back here. Hear Me Sing finally got a win on the board last start, which he’ll take a lot of confidence from. Thanks to that start, he is unbeaten over this distance (1:1-0-0-). I do worry that if it’s a leaders day, he’ll have a more ideal spot at the front than The Velvet Queen, which may be her undoing. Extra Secret is coming off a win off 1400m though be it in Pinjarra. I think she’s opened a little short but you can’t ignore when Pike combines with a Peters’ horse. Uni Queen finished second to The Velvet Queen three starts ago but only gets 1kg on her here. I question whether she’s not a fan of Ascot, but she does seem to be going better this preparation. I think the market is an accurate guide of her chances.

Suggested bet: The Velvet Queen, Hear Me Sing and Extra Secret – each way

Race 4 – Amelia Park Lodge Handicap – 1000m – 2:27pm

8 – Strathmore Rose
6 – Mantelli
1 – River Beau
7 – Night Voyage

Comment: Strathmore Rose definitely goes better fresh and her first up record confirms that (3:1-2-0). She comes into this race without a trial, so just the small question mark over her fitness. She only has to carry 52kg with Beaux’s claim, which makes her a very attractive top tip. Mantelli drops 5kg off last start’s run, though he is up in class here. He’s in career best form and is proven at this distance (2:1-1-0), plus he’ll get an ideal position from barrier 3. He’s one to watch. River Beau just couldn’t match it to our best over the spring/summer carnival. He’s down in class here, so 61kg will be a big ask. His preparation before last was amazing though and he’s no stranger to this track/distance (13:4-3-1). Look for him to bounce back here. Night Voyage had a tonne of excuses last start but still didn’t finish that far off the winner. He’s no stranger to this track/distance (13:1-1-4) and with a bit of luck he should be in the finish.

Suggested bet: Strathmore Rose, Mantelli, River Beau and Night Voyage – each way

Race 5 – Crown Towers Handicap – 1600m – 3:05pm

3 – Bruce Almighty
4 – I’m Pretty
5 – Em Tee Aye
6 – Mosseratti

Comment: Bruce Almighty narrowly missed out on the win last start. He’s drawn a better barrier here, so he should get to the front a little easier and run a good race. I’m Pretty did well to finish as close as she did considering that her rider said she felt uncomfortable on the corner. Stepping up to 1600m from 1200m is a big ask but Pike jumps back on board. She can win without surprising. Em Tee Aye is a horse that I just can’t quite get my head around. He’s on the one week backup and Clint does pick him over I’m Pretty. Conditions do look to suit and his form behind Beret, in particular, is good. Whether he’ll find one better once again, we’ll have to wait and see. Mosseratti was disappointing last start with nothing written in the stewards’ report. He steps up in distance to one he’s placed over at Ascot (4:0-1-1), but he will only get better as he steps up even further.

Suggested bet: Bruce Almighty, I’m Pretty and Em Tee Aye – each way

Race 6 – Belhus Racing Stables Handicap – 1600m – 3:40pm

2 – Cable Guy
5 – Fairy Fast
6 – Classic Rogue
1 – Blackwater Bay

Comment: Cable Guy is just on fire at the moment. His last two winning starts have been over this distance, though I question whether he’s a fan of Ascot or not though. This is probably his toughest race but conditions look to suit. Fairy Fast showed a really good turn of foot last start. He’s down in class, so he does rise 4.5kg off last start. Pike jumps on board, so we could see him go one better here. Classic Rogue has been racing consistently, recording two wins in his past two starts at Albany. He’s another horse that doesn’t seem to like Ascot (6:0-0-2), but he does like this distance (3:2-0-0). With Holly’s claim he only has to carry 54.5kg, which gives him every chance to make it 3 wins in a row. Blackwater Bay has had just the one trial leading into this race, which wasn’t particularly flashy. He has placed first up before though (4:0-0-2), but it’s his track/distance record that I like the most (2:1-0-1). He could surprise here at good value.

Suggested bet: Cable Guy, Fairy Fast, Classic Rogue and Blackwater Bay – each way

Race 7 – Glenroy Chaff Handicap – 2200m – 4:15pm

2 – Black Chips
1 – Come Right Back
11 – Lady Duckworth
10 – Frequent Friar

Comment: Black Chips has really improved this preparation since stepping up in distance. He’s actually unbeaten at this track/distance (1:1-0-0) and the only thing looking to get in his way of keeping this record is the class of this race. Come Right Back just couldn’t match it to them in the Perth Cup. He drops down in class here and he is proven at this track/distance (8:2-1-0). Whether the one week backup is too much combined with 59.5kg, we’ll find out here. Lady Duckworth finished third to Come Right Back’s second and gets 2.5kg on him here. Unlike him, she’s had a 3 week break between runs. Her distance record isn’t great (3:0-0-0) and she can be hit and miss, but the open race should suit her here. Frequent Friar was disappointing last start, but I don’t think dropping back to 1600m was the best decision. He jumps back up here where he’s placed at this track/distance (1:0-1-0). He’s on the really short backup of 5 days, but he’s a good value chance.

Suggested bet: Black Chips, Come Right Back, Lady Duckworth and Frequent Friar – each way

Race 8 – Easingwold Stakes – 1400m – 4:50pm

7 – Proconsent
5 – The Spruiker
1 – Vital Silver
4 – Bam’s On Fire

Comment: Proconsent has been racing very consistently lately. He drops down in distance here from 1600m. Giving his winning distance range 1400m may suit him better, though his distance record doesn’t reflect that (4:1-0-0). He’s up in class and won’t know himself with just 54.5kg on his back. The Spruiker appreciated the drop down in class last start, recording a win second up. He steps up in distance to one that he’s suited over (7:4-1-1). It’s really hard to fault him and looks to be a battle between my top two tips. Vital Silver has improved with each run this preparation. Conditions look to suit, especially in terms of track/distance (4:2-0-1). He’s got the class but 62kg seems like a big ask. Bam’s On Fire just seemed to be getting too far back in her runs. She’s finally drawn a better barrier here and drops back in class slightly. She’s never won at Ascot though (11:0-1-2) and that’s the thing that concerns me the most.

Suggested bet: Proconsent and The Spruiker – each way

Race 9 – Morley Growers Market Handicap – 1200m – 5:25pm

2 – Material Witness
7 – Burnya To Survive
4 – Jedi Mind
8 – He’s On Fire

Comment: Material Witness looks to be in for another good preparation after winning first up. His second up record, track and distance are all the same (2:0-2-0), with him never racing over 1200m at Ascot. 60kg raises a few questions but he did finish third with that weight last preparation. Burnya To Survive comes to the city for the first time. He’s up in class but has a really good turn of foot. All of his career starts have also been over this distance (3:2-0-1). Class is a question but ability is not. Jedi Mind is just finding a few better lately but hasn’t finished that far off the winner. He’s down in class and can hopefully turn his Ascot record around (4:0-0-0). He’s On Fire is up in class and at 6 years old he’s only having his third start. He looks to have ability given his career results (3:2-0-0) and he only has to carry 55kg with Laqdar’s claim. One to watch at healthy odds.

Suggested bet: Material Witness, Burnya To Survive, Jedi Mind and He’s On Fire – each way

Best Bet

Race 2 – Blazing Away

Quaddie

R6: 1, 2, 5, 6, 7
R7: 1, 2, 3, 6, 10, 11
R8: 5, 7
R9: 2, 4, 5, 7, 8, 10

Confidence rating

My confidence is a little on the lower side this week as there are many even races. Races 1, 4, 5, 6 and 9 look to be particularly hard and I would really just avoid the quaddie. What makes me the most nervous is putting my own horse (The Velvet Queen) on top, especially after her last run, but there’s no doubt that she has ability. Fingers crossed it’s a winning day all round!

Last Week’s Results

R6: quinella
Winners in top 4: 6/10
Top picks: 3rd(no pay), 2nd, 3rd, 1st, -, 2nd, -, 1st, 1st, 2nd
Best bet: 2nd
Quaddie: No
Profit: -0.2 ($1ew on top tips & $2ew on bb)