Ascot 07/12/2019

Conditions

Rail – True
Track – Good 4
Forecast – Max 27 degrees, shower or two developing (70% chance of rain, 1-2mm)

Race 1 – Tourism WA Trophy – 1000m – 12:24pm

American Choice came third to Starfield Impact last start. She couldn’t run her down last start but she should improve on that run and gets a 3kg swing here, plus Jade’s claim. Starfield Impact is just improving with each run, breaking her maiden last start at her third start. She rises in weight here but does have experience over the other horses. She’s a bit too short for me too odd wise, but I’m taking a risk tipping against her. Chick Flix has been improving with each trial. It’s her first time at the races and she also has a wide barrier to contend with, but I expect her to be right up there. Mindarie has the great two-year-old combination in Paul Jordan and Craig Staples on her side. She also has the inside barrier and came second to American Choice at her first trial.
4 – American Choice
1 – Starfield Impact
5 – Chick Flix
6 – Mindarie

Race 2 – TabTouch – Better Your Bet Handicap – 1100m – 1:04pm

This’ll Testya looks to be another future champion. She won her two trials leading into her first race, which she then also won. If she brings that performance here, she should be winning. Zenaze is on a one-week backup and I’m not going to get the same odds I got last week when I had him on top as my best bet. I have a few more question marks over him this week, as he rises in weight (because of the win), has a wider barrier and drops back in distance (when he’s been racing very well at 1200m). He obviously has some ability and he’ll be needing all of that to win here. Coming Around hasn’t trialled sensationally and he also has a wide barrier and weight, while Pike also jumps off, but he has a good first up record (2:0-2-0) and has only placed outside of the top three twice in his career (9:2-3-2). My top two picks look hard to beat, but if he can run on, he’ll be giving them a run for their money CityCircle could be a good value tip. She comes into this race after not raced since July, but her track record is quite good (4:1-1-2) as is her first up record (2:0-2-0). She was also pretty consistently last preparation.
12 – This’ll Testya
5 – Zenaze
1 – Coming Around
9 – City Circle

Race 3 – Amelia Park Handicap – 1600m – 1:44pm

Jedaffair drops back to 1600m will definitely help him, as he won his previous two starts at 1600m, though he wasn’t performing badly at 1800m. Pike jumps off which does surprise me (perhaps because of his commitment to Mr Peters’ horses), but Joey Azzopardi should give him a good run from that barrier. Nelson’s Flight won last start at Bunbury and came second the start before to Jedaffair. Paul Harvey seems to suit and with speed in the race, he could find himself with cover. Midnight Sky settled too far back last start from the wide barrier, so she should be better suited in barrier four and with Pike back on board. She was a force to be reckoned with in March, but we haven’t really seen anything since. Perhaps I’m missing something, but I’m surprised to see her favourite. Arctic Stream has had one bad run this preparation but given the conditions of that run, I’m willing to forgive it. He could potentially bounce back here.
3 – Jedaffair
4 – Nelson’s Flight
8 – Midnight Sky
5 – Arctic Stream

Race 4 – Quayclean Handicap – 1200m – 2:24pm

Carocapo won last start with a nice turn of foot. He’s only had one bad race this preparation but that was on a soft track and he got too far back and perhaps boxed in (without having watched the replay). He’ll be right up there. Mankind comes out of the same race as Rebel Knight where he got second. However, he’s second on my list because of the wide barrier and the fact that he’s yet to win on a good track from eleven starts (11:0-3-1). The Nicconian has been racing well this preparation and seems to be back to his old self after a terrible winter. This time last year he was on fire and if he brings that form he’ll give them a run for their money. Prevailing Winds came fourth behind Carocapo last start and gets a 2.5kg swing here. Her form isn’t the best and neither is the barrier, but she could surprise.
3 – Carocapo
5 – Mankind
4 – The Nicconian
11 – Prevailing Winds

Race 5 – TabTouch – Sir Ernest Lee-Steere Classic – 1400m – 3:00pm

Massimo is a horse on fire, having won his previous three starts. He steps up in distance but with his ability this shouldn’t be a problem. Laverrod has never actually won a race from three starts (3:0-2-1) but he also has ability and gets every chance here, though once again the distance is a query. Sanabreanna has raced at this distance where she got third, which is a positive in my books. She has looked to be the winner last start in the Champion Fillies before Tuscan Queen (who is in the Kingston Town today) stormed home. With no weight on her back and a good barrier, she is a very good chance. War Saint won the WA Guineas last start. He has to give the other horses weight because of it but if he can get another easy run up the front lookout.
2 – Massimo
5 – Laverrod
8 – Sanabreanna
1 – War Saint

Race 6 – Ascend Sales – Jungle Dawn Classic – 1400m – 3:35pm

Bel My Pago simply got too far back last start from the wide barrier, though she did make up ground late. She should be able to settle slightly further forward from barrier eight and can hopefully use her good turn of foot. She also has a good distance record (3:1-1-0). Beautiful Mind should be hitting her stride here after running second to Electric Light in the lead up race and being third up here. I wouldn’t be surprised if she won. Perfect Jewel drops significantly in class after running in two group threes and the Railway Stakes last start. She has to carry 60kg because of that but she has the class to pull through. Electric Light won the lead up race with a good turn of foot. It was a nice run but given her previous form you have to question whether a, she’s finally peaking or b, it was a lucky run.
7 – Bel My Pago
10 – Beautiful Mind
1 – Perfect Jewel
2 – Electric Light

Race 7 – Glenroy Chaff – AJ Scahill Stakes – 1400m – 4:10pm

Abdicator has different form compared to these other runners, but he has been racing very well since coming back from Kalgoorlie. He also has a great distance record (7:4-1-1). Flirtini is on the one-week backup after coming out of the Winterbottom. She was unlucky after getting too far back and could have perhaps finished closer. She steps up in distance here, but she has the form and ability to win. I’m taking a risk not putting her on top given her form and she’s a serious threat. Arcadia Prince is a horse that has me puzzled. He was performing exceptionally well this time last year, but he hasn’t come back the same after twelve months off. He has been improving with each run and likes 1400m so I’m giving him one more chance here, though Pike jumping off doesn’t give me confidence. Wrinkly should be leading here with Baraki Beats and he ran second to Abdicator two starts ago. If they’re winning from the front then he could be one to watch.
9 – Abdicator
12 – Flirtini
7 – Arcadia Prince
5 – Wrinkly

Race 8 – Magic Millions – Kingston Town Classic – 1800m – 4:50pm

Tuscan Queen is very hard to go past and while her favouritism makes me nervous, there’s a lot to like about her. Her turn of foot that saw her win last start was nothing like I’ve seen before, it was simply breathtaking. With that ability, the low weight, good barrier and Pike in the saddle, it’s hard to see her not being up there despite the increase in distance. Kay Cee is also a filly with ability, beating Tuscan Queen three starts ago and coming third to her two starts ago. She also has an impressive turn of foot and carries a very low weight. She should also be fitter at this distance compared to Tuscan Queen, as Kay Cee has raced at 1600m twice before then compared to Tuscan Queen’s once plus Tuscan Queen as had a bigger break between races. It could be a fantastic finish between my two top picks. Regal Power has drawn wide again but proved this was no problem, winning the Railway Stakes from a wide barrier too. He also has a great turn of foot and the distance won’t be a problem at all, as he won the derby in the autumn over 2400m. He does, however, have to give weight to the younger horses. He gives Mr Peters a second live chance in this race. Best of Days looks to be the best of the Eastern States horses. His run in the Railway Stakes was very good and he brings great Eastern States form. If you’re looking for a bit of value, he’s a good horse.
16 – Tuscan Queen
15 – Kay Cee
8 – Regal Power
5 – Best of Days

As The Velvet King is racing in this race too, I thought I’d let you know my thoughts on him too, as I’m sure you’re all dying to know. In my honest opinion, I see it hard for him to be winning because I think it’s simply too far for him. He also has a wider barrier and meets these horses worse in the weights compared to the Railway Stakes. Gatting looks to be the better chance from the Impressive Racing stable and while he’s not in my top four, he could very well win. However, with all of that said, I’m a big believer in that you have to be in it to win it and I’ll be crossing my fingers that The Velvet King runs a good race.

Race 9 – Crown Towers Handicap – 2100m – 5:30pm

Sentimental Gift has never placed outside the top three (6:2-2-2) and she looks to be a very chance here again. British Bessy is on the one-week backup after not racing so well last week. However, I’m willing to forgive that run after she got too far back. She actually beat Sentimental Gift at his last start (and two starts ago for her), so this will be an interesting rematch. Here Comes Lenni loves long races, so the increase in distance will definitely benefit him. He also gets in better with the weights with Jade’s claim which will hopefully help combat the wide barrier, however, if he gets too far back don’t get too concerned. High Energy has had nearly a month off from racing, but he does have form around some good horses.
11 – Sentimental Gift
8 – British Bessy
2 – Here Comes Lenni
10 – High Energy

Best Bet

Race 3 – Jedaffair

Confidence rating

I’m taking a few big risks today, both in terms of outsiders and outright favourites, but I’m going to go with my gut and back myself. Hopefully, it pays off and fingers crossed The Velvet King runs a go race!