Ascot 07/11/2020

Conditions

Rail – 8m
Track – Good 4
Forecast – Max 29 degrees, sunny

Race 1 – Crossman Memorial Plate – 1100m – 12:19pm

Sassy Trader rarely runs a bad race, having never placed outside the top three in his career (3:1-1-1). The scratching of Clairvoyance is definitely in his favour as is stepping back in distance (from 1200m to 1100m). He drops 2kg off last start’s run even though this race looks to be easier on paper and he has placed at this track/distance before (1:0-1-0). I’d be surprised if he doesn’t at least place. Kick A Goal Son has been improving with each run, placing second and then getting his maiden win at only his second start (2:1-1-0). Both of these races have been over 1000m and even though he likes to lead, I can’t see the extra 100m being a problem. The form surrounding his races (though every horse must make their way through the grades) and his wide barrier are the only reasons why I don’t have him on top. He very well could be a carnival horse in the making. American Choice is the most experienced horse in this race with ten runs under her belt. Her results have been a bit hit and miss, though she is coming off a second up win at Northam (she was no match for Clairvoyance first up), so perhaps she has matured this time in. She’s placed at this track/distance before (3:1-0-1) and placed second in the listed Supremacy earlier in the year before being out classed in the two-year-old group 2 and 3 races. She can run a good race, but I think she might just find my top tip too good. Alpha and Omega had a few excuses at her maiden race, getting blocked the entire length of the straight, so I’m willing to forgive that run. Her second up run was good, finishing second by a nose. She doesn’t seem to have a turn of foot like some of these other horses, so while there looks to be a lot of speed in the race, I do hope she takes up a forward position. She’s third up so will be ready to go fitness wise and should only improve off this run. Again though, my top tip looks to just have the edge over her class wise.
2 – Sassy Trader
4 – Kick A Goal Son
3 – American Choice
7 – Alpha and Omega

Race 2 – Tabtouch-Better Your Bet Plate – 1100m – 12:59pm

Hear Me Sing is the full brother to Watch Me Dance, who is a very talented three-year-old. So, if family connections are anything to go by, this gelding should go well. His trial results back up this claim, placing second and then winning his latest trial. He’s drawn barrier one, so I do hope that he jumps well so that he doesn’t get stuck on the rail. I think he’ll be a better horse come February when he’s matured a bit more, but he should go well here. Liwa won both of her trials leading into this race, which makes her a serious threat to my top tip. Both of those wins were by a convincing margin too, though nothing ridiculous. Her first trial was over 400m and while she won, I would have loved for both to be over 850-950m, just to have a bit of a better gauge. Winning a 400m trial however, does suggest that this distance won’t be too short for her. She can win without anyone blinking an eye. The Lady Is A Vamp got a touch too far back last start, which may have been a result of the wide barrier. She’s drawn wide again here, so I do worry that history might repeat itself here. She nearly won at her maiden race, finishing a nose behind Fatale Femme, who looks to be a very good horse. Experience and form wise she’s got them covered, but I worry that the wide barrier will be her undoing. Diamond Blue comes out of the same race as The Lady Is A Vamp, finishing third to her fourth. His last 600m time wasn’t as fast as The Lady Is A Vamp’s and he’s drawn extremely wide here, which is a concern in a race full of maiden runners, as I have no idea where he’ll end up. He’s got one race under his belt now, so should improve here. Anything can happen in this even field!
2 – Hear Me Sing
11 – Liwa
5 – The Lady Is A Vamp
1 – Diamond Blue

Race 3 – Schweppes Handicap – 2200m – 1:39pm

Come Right Back is a very consistent horse, but just looked to relish the extra distance, winning last start at his first time over 2200m. He rises in class, so does drop 1kg on last start. He loves Ascot (3:2-0-1) and is unbeaten at this track/distance (1:1-0-0) thanks to last start’s run. My only small query is that he has drawn barrier one and as there doesn’t look to be a lot of speed in the race, I do worry that if he jumps well he may be at the front, which is something I’m not a fan of over these longer distances. Otherwise, there’s no reason why he should run a bad race. Treasured Crown won last start over 1800m by a convincing four lengths. While he’s been recording good results this preparation (two wins and a fourth), I wouldn’t say that the form surrounding those races is very strong. He drops 2.5kg off last start’s win, due to the rise in class, which certainly makes him competitive. He steps up in distance which I don’t think should be an issue given his racing pattern. He’s also drawn wide but he’ll have plenty of time to make up ground and it may even enable him to settle one off the fence and not get stuck in traffic. Never rule out a cerise and white horse. British Bessy looked to have shown us a glimpse of her older self last start, finishing second behind Truly Great over 1800m. Her results over the winter certainly weren’t the best, but I think this could be put down to her not appreciating a soft track. She’ll get a good track here with an ok barrier, but her track/distance record is the biggest thing going in her favour (4:2-1-0). She’ll be fit third up and should run a good race. Playing Marika is also coming off a good win over 1800m. Her two starts before that certainly weren’t the best, with no real excuses being written up in the stewards’ report. She’s never raced beyond 1800m before, so there’s a slight question mark over whether she’ll handle the distance. However, she does like Ascot (10:3-0-1) and has drawn a good barrier.
3 – Come Right Back
8 – Treasured Crown
2 – British Bessy
1 – Playing Marika

Race 4 – Crown Sports Bar Handicap – 1600m – 2:25pm

Tollman put in his first disappointing run in a long-time last start. It was his first start this preparation, with only one trial leading into that race, so perhaps he just needed that run fitness wise. His second up record is good (2:1-1-0) and he’s no stranger to this distance, though is yet to win over it (5:0-4-0). If he can put last start behind him, he can win this. Freez’emoff surprised us all last preparation, proving that her Geraldton form could mix it with the best in the city. At the end of last preparation she recorded some of her best career results, so fingers crossed for connections that this can continue here. Few red flags for me are that she comes into this race without a trial, she has to carry 61.5kg and she arguable goes better over 2100-2200m. However, she has won first up before (4:2-0-0) and does have ability. Just look for her to improve over more distance. Western Pride has been incredibly hit and miss since returning in May after having a year off the scene. She raced well in her trial and first up race but completely bomb second up. Last start she may have gotten too far back without having watched the replay. While stepping up in distance should give her more time to catch them, I’m surprised to see her as the favourite. Haha she’ll probably come out and win now! Naughty By Nature has been a bit disappointing this preparation, which is surprising as she normally does her best work when fresh. The step up in distance should definitely benefit and she does like Ascot (8:1-2-1). If she brings her January-March form, she can justify the short odds.
7 – Tollman
1 – Freez’emoff
11 – Western Pride
9 – Naughty By Nature

Race 5 – Kirin Megumi Handicap – 1800m – 3:04pm

Notorious One bounced back well after being able to settle in the first few. Given his inside barrier, I suspect he’ll be able to take up a similar position in running as long as he jumps well. He does step up in distance but if he doesn’t happen to settle further back, as he did in his first two starts, it should only give him more time to catch them. I’m looking for him to prove here that he’s just as good as they say he is. Cuban Twist has great Kalgoorlie form and managed to confirm it was form to follow after placing third at Ascot last start. She loves this distance (4:2-1-1) and has placed at the track/distance before (1:0-0-1). The biggest concern for me is that she’s drawn wide and while she did run on well in Kalgoorlie, she may get stuck in traffic here. She has the ability to win but will need a bit of luck. Adornment seems to be racing a bit flat lately, though the 60kg last start may have just taken its toll. She only has to carry 56kg with Madi’s claim and has drawn lovely in barrier three. She’s won at this track/distance before (4:1-1-0) and she’ll be fit being third up here. Look for her to bounce back. Deputano has been racing very well this preparation, continuing on from his good results last preparation. She loves this track (4:2-1-1), but hasn’t raced at this distance before, so there’s a slight question mark over that. She’s on the ten day back up after winning last start and steps up in class. I think she’ll definitely make her mark though.
6 – Notorious One
7 – Cuban Twist
2 – Adornment
12 – Deputano

Race 6 – Glenroy Chaff Handicap – 1400m – 3:40pm

Invictus Domini won by ridiculous margins at his two starts this preparation. His form may only be in Geraldton, but never missing a placing in six starts is impressive (6:2-3-1). He steps up in class here, so drops 3kg off last start’s run. He’s also drawn wide and given that he likes to lead, he may have to use a bit of energy early on. However, he’s proven at this distance (3:2-1-0) and should go well if he can give these city horses something to run down. Point Taken has only really put in one bad run this preparation, where she may have got stuck in traffic and too far back (without watching the replay). It looks like she would really appreciate 1400m, but she’s actually only raced at it twice (2:0-1-0). She only has to carry 56kg with Laqdar’s claim and should get into her ideal position from that barrier. There’s no reason why she would run a bad race. Angelic Miss showed a really good turn of foot last start where she finished second behind Solaia, who is heading towards some big races this carnival. This horse’s biggest advantage is that she can race from both the front and the rear, so even though she has a great barrier, it doesn’t really matter where she settles. She only has to carry 53kg with Chloe’s claim, which makes her ultra-competitive. Despite the rise in class, she can win this without surprising and is one to watch going forward. Belle Of Liberty has only finished outside the top three once in her career (6:2-3-0), but in that race she did have to carry 61kg. She’s unbeaten second up (1:1-0-0) and has won at this distance before (2:1-1-0), though this is her first time racing at Ascot. There’s nothing really to complain about other than the form surrounding her races might not be the strongest. She rounds out a very even race.
13 – Invictus Domini
3 – Point Taken
14 – Angelic Miss
10 – Belle Of Liberty

Race 7 – Fairetha Stakes – 1400m – 4:15pm

Dom To Shoot has some of the best form in this race. He showed a massive turn of foot last start, finishing second behind Em Tee Aye, who definitely had more of an ideal run than this horse. He does get 4kg on him as a result and due to the conditions of this race. He’s drawn wide which would normally be a concern but two starts ago he won from barrier twelve. He’s yet to win at this track/distance (2:0-2-0), but I think that can change here. Em Tee Aye is looking to make it three wins in a row here. He placed third in the group 3 WA Sires earlier this year, so certainly has ability. He also loves this track/distance (3:2-0-1). He’s drawn wide but won from barrier twelve last start, so it isn’t too much of a concern. The biggest shink in his armour is the amount of weight he has to give some of these other horses. No reason why he can’t win! Empire Reign raced wide throughout last start, but really didn’t finish that far off the leader in a quality field. He also finished second to Em Tee Aye first up this preparation and gets 3.5kg on him here. He steps up in distance, which looks to benefit him, given his results over 1300m. The barrier is the only thing that might get the better of him. Western Empire showed a really good turn of foot at his maiden race, which he finished third in. Mr Peters must have a high opinion of him if he’s jumping him up in class this significantly. Given that he did get back in that race, stepping up in distance should only give him more time to catch them. He’s drawn wide, but for a cerise and white horse in a feature race, he’s great value.
1 – Dom To Shoot
3 – Em Tee Aye
8 – Empire Reign
13 – Western Empire              

Race 8 – WAROA – Lee Steere Stakes – 1400m – 4:55pm

Laverrod probably looks like a serious player in this race. He’s coming off a win, beating a few of these horses in the process. He also likes this track/distance (2:1-0-1) and has won third up before (2:1-1-0). He’s only placed outside the top three once (14:5-5-3), which was first up this preparation when he finished fourth. I can’t see this statistic changing here and he’s a much safer bet (than Festival Miss who got scratched this morning)! Kay Cee simply got too far back last start, so just put a line through that run. Before that, she was unbeaten at this distance (4:3-0-0) and had never placed outside the top three at Ascot (6:2-2-1). She’s drawn a bit sticky in barrier ten, so I will be interested to see where she settles. However, she’s unbeaten second up (2:2-0-0) and will be looking to improve here if she’s going to defend her Kingston Town crown. Kementari is launching the Godolphin attack on our carnival. He hasn’t won in 138 weeks, but his last two runs in Melbourne weren’t too bad and Melbourne group one form is certainly nothing to laugh out. He’s drawn wide so may get a touch too far back. However, his distance record is pretty good (7:2-2-1). It’s always hard to judge how well Melbourne horses will good but I think the sea change will do him good. Red Can Man hasn’t been his usual winning self this preparation. I thought maybe it was because he didn’t appreciate racing on the speed, but he’s done that nearly his whole career, so no excuses there. He does get his best barrier all preparation here and has a great track/distance record (4:2-0-1). He can surprise here.
8 – Laverrod
10 – Kay Cee
1 – Kementari
7 – Red Can Man

Race 9 – Amelia Park Handicap – 1100m – 5:30pm

Elite Street nearly had four wins in a row if he hadn’t had been disqualified at the end of last preparation. With a new preparation comes a new start and he won first up in a nice fashion. He’s never officially raced over 1100m, but given his results over 1000-1200m, he’ll be fine. He’s unbeaten second up (1:1-0-0) and looks to be one to watch. Cliffs Of Comfort apparently didn’t handle carry 58kg from the extremely wide barrier two starts ago. This is a bit of a concern seeing as he carries 57kg here, 2.5kg more than last start. However, last start he finished third behind Laverrod, who is a very good chance in the feature race earlier in the day. He’s also drawn barrier one, so he should be able to find the front easily here. Combined with the fact that he’s unbeaten at this track/distance (1:1-0-0), he’s a serious threat to my top tip! Boomtastic finished second behind Elite Street last start but only gets 2.5kg on him, (partly due to Chloe’s claim) which I don’t think is entirely enough to turn the tables. She does, however, have a better barrier this time. She has a good second up record (3:1-1-1), so will improve fitness wise here. If we look back to July, she also managed to beat We’ve Got Dreams which is very good form in my opinion. Don’t rule her out. Long Beach also comes out of the same race as Cliffs Of Comfort where he finished fifth. He definitely didn’t get an ideal run after getting too far back, so there are a few excuses there. He has a great track record (4:2-0-1) and a great turn of foot which we saw four starts ago. If he brings that from his good barrier, he can win without surprising in a race with so many winning chances.
9 – Elite Street
5 – Cliffs Of Comfort
11 – Boomtastic
7 – Long Beach

Best Bet

Race 1 – Sassy Trader

Confidence rating

My confidence certainly isn’t very good today. Race 2 is just full of maidens, which means anything can happen. Races 4 and 6 are pretty even, while you can make a case for so many horses in races 8 and 9. I spent ages tossing up whether I made the right choice with Festival Miss (my $26/1 chance who got scratched this morning), especially as horses like Laverrod are still paying well for first. I’m going to stick with my gut though and hope it’s right!

Last Week’s Results

Saturday 31/10/2020
R1-exacta
Winners in top 4 – 6/9
Top picks: 1st, -, 1st, -, -, -, -, 1st, –
Best bet: 1st
Profit:-9.7
Tuesday 03/11/2020
R1-box first four
R3-quinella
Winners in top 4 – 7/10
Top picks: 1st, 2nd, 2nd, -, -, 2nd, 1st, -, 3rd, 3rd
Best bet: –
Profit:-7.2