Ascot 07/03/2020

Conditions

Rail – 7m
Track – Good 4
Forecast – Max 28 degrees, partly cloudy

Race 1 – Free Entry For Females Handicap – 1400m – 12:52pm

Talladega is unbeaten in his career and should get into a good position from the barrier, with no chance of getting stuck in traffic due to the small field. I like that he’s used to carrying the 59kg compared to Long Beach too. Long Beach definitely has his fair share of ability and will give my top tip a run for his money. For a small field, it’s a competitive race. Tommy Blue was a winner last start and ran a nice race two starts ago in the 3-year-old Magic Millions race. She does jump up significantly in weight (4kg on last start) but she should make her way nicely through the grades. Eurasia came second to Tommy Blue last start and gets 2kg on him here. One thing that he has going for him is that he’s the only horse proven over this distance.
2 – Talladega
1 – Long Beach
3 – Tommy Blue
4 – Eurasia

Race 2 – TabTouch Westspeed Platinum Maiden – 1100m – 1:32pm

Bedouin Belle has been racing consistently, though she hasn’t recorded a win in a while. I like her ability to run on though, finishing fourth after being near last on the turn. She is on the one-week backup though. Round the Point has been racing well in Albany and at Ascot last start, finishing second. He could be a bit of a dark horse in this race. He’s definitely worth an each way bet. Bruce Almighty won last start, so you can’t knock that winning form after being heavily supported. He drops in weight but I’m not sure dropping back in distance is necessarily a good idea. Rapisarda was disappointing last start after getting too far back. He’s second up here though and should be fitter from the run.
6 – Bedouin Belle
4 – Round the Point
7 – Bruce Almighty
3 – Rapisarda

Race 3 – International Women’s Day Maiden – 1400m – 2:08pm

Son of the Sun hasn’t shown anything fabulous but does look to have the most ability in this field. Having Jade on board is also a positive. He’s Gonski is first up here. His first ever race wasn’t very good, but if he can settle in the first few (not the front) I think that may be better. He has shown glimpses of ability in trials.  Knot Known was first up in his last race after 3 months off with no trial, so he may have been needing that run. He may also benefit from the step up in distance. Friars Princess is basically in the same boat as He’s Gonski. Trial was good over 1000m but then didn’t show much in her race. She’ll be fitter second up though.
1 – Son of the Sun
5 – He’s Gonski
3 – Knot Known
8 – Friars Princess

Race 4 – Crown Towers Handicap – 1600m – 2:45pm

Lordhelpmerun simply got too far back last start and it may have even been too far for him. He’s shown he’s better than that run, winning at this distance two starts ago. Look for him to bounce back here. Harry Thomas is the horse that is always there, and you couldn’t get a more consistent horse. He comes out of a listed race and drops down in distance. I expect him to be right in it once again. My Greek Boy has been racing well, with nothing really to complain about. He finished fifth in a listed race last start and gets Jade back on board. Bella’s Idol had nearly a year off racing, before coming back last and finishing fifth off no trial. He should have benefited from that run and would only need to bring his old self to be in the finish.
2 – Lordhelpmerun
5 – Harry Thomas
3 – My Greek Boy
6 – Bella’s Idol

Race 5 – Supremacy Stakes – 1000m – 3:25pm

American Choice is yet to finish outside the top three (4:1-1-2) and has good form surrounding her races. She also had a nice quiet freshen up trial leading into this race. Justhandy is a good tip if you’re looking for some value. She finished second to Gemma’s Son at her first start. She’s also shown good potential in all three of her trials. She faces more experienced horses here but watch out for her. Our Danni is also a very consistent horse, finishing in the top three at all three career starts (3:1-1-1). She does have the wide barrier to content with and Jade jumps off in favour for American Choice, but there’s no reason why he can’t win. Too Spicy finished third to Our Danni last time they met and gets 0.5kg on her here (not really enough to make a difference in my books). Jade also used to ride this horse.
4 – American Choice
9 – Justhandy
5 – Our Danni
6 – Too Spicy

Race 6 – Hawaiian Ride for Youth Handicap – 1000m – 4:05pm

Laverrod is a horse going places and deserves to carry the 60kg. Whether this will be his undoing is certainly a question to be asked but he’ll give this a red-hot crack. River Beau doesn’t have as good of form surrounding his races and he does rise in class. However, he has been racing well and Bruce Watkins doesn’t bring them to the city unless he thinks they have a chance. Another very good long odds chance. Ziebell won last start and has only had the one bad run this preparation, which was in a listed race over 1200m. He may have to use a bit of energy to get to the front from that barrier and with that weight. However, if they’re winning from the front then look out for him. Pure Dynamite came second to Tuscan Queen last preparation. He’s had the one trial and one race, where he finished second in both, so looking for him to take the next step here.
1 – Laverrod
5 – River Beau
2 – Ziebell
4 – Pure Dynamite

Race 7 – Amelia Park Beef Handicap – 1200m – 4:40pm

Fred Dag was a force to be reckoned with last preparation. He looks to have come back just as good this preparation, with two trials for a second and a win. He may be needing to use his great turn of foot here too. Red Can Man surprised everyone last preparation, winning the listed Fairetha and group 2 WA Guineas. He’s also had two trials leading into this race for two wins.  There’s no doubt that he’s a horse to watch and he does have a better first up record than my top pick (3:1-1-1) which makes me a little bit nervous. Pym’s Royale comes back after five months off, with no trial leading into this race. Fitness, therefore, is a question though one positive is that the 60kg should be a problem, as he has won two races before carrying 62kg. Speeding Comet came second last start. He’s been racing some pretty good horses and meets more here again. He’ll need to bring his best to win. Stepping back to the 1200m will definitely help though, as he has a good record at this distance ((8:2-1-1).
3 – Fred Dag
5 – Red Can Man
1 – Pym’s Royale
2 – Speeding Comet

Race 8 – Budget Car & Truck Rental Handicap – 2100m – 5:15pm

Morning Song won last start over this distance after a lovely run. You definitely won’t be getting the same odds here for her in what looks to be an easier field. Here Comes Lenni is known for loving long distances. He finished fifth to Morning Song last start and gets 2kg on him here. Despite this, it’s hard to see him turning the tables. Skinnen Tins finishes consistently fourth. She hasn’t had much luck at this track (10:1-0-1) but stepping up to this distance for the first time may help change that. Barbie Will Do finished second to Morning Song three starts ago over this distance. She showed a fantastic turn of foot then, especially as she was carrying 60kg. She has been a bit disappointing since but can bounce back here.
2 – Morning Song
1 – Here Comes Lenni
6 – Skinnen Tins
7 – Barbie Will Do

Race 9 – Ride Like A Girl Movie Night Handicap – 1400m – 5:55pm

Lipstick Flickers is an ultra-consistent filly and has great form surrounding her races. She steps up to 1400m, which makes me slightly nervous as I prefer her over 1200m. She should go well, especially as she gets a bit of weight relief with Jade’s claim. Special Choice has great listed, group 2 and group 3 form from the spring. She looks to have come back well, with a good second result last start. That race should see her just that little bit fitter second up and makes her a serious threat. Playing Marika comes out of the same race as Special Choice, where she got third. However, she is third up and won first up, so may have that extra edge about her.  Smarty has incredibly Kalgoorlie form and then backed that up in a race at Ascot last preparation. She’s had just the one quiet trial leading into this race, hasn’t beaten as good of horses and does have to carry a bit of weight. However, she should go well.
3 – Lipstick Flickers
7 – Special Choice
6 – Playing Marika
1 – Smarty

Best Bet

Race 4 – Lordhelpmerun

Confidence rating

Originally saw that there were small fields today and I thought, or this will be easy. Haha I was wrong! There are some very competitive races today, especially in the maiden races. It will only get harder as the week’s go on too, as the great horses return for their autumn campaign.