Ascot 06/11/2021

Conditions

Rail – 8m
Track – Good 4
Forecast – Max 23 degrees, partly cloudy

Race 1 – Magic Millions Plate – 1100m – 12:39pm

1 – Pot Shot
4 – Snowdome
10 – Street Parade
3 – Kosta’s Crown

Comment: Pot Shot finished third behind Revitup last start and gets 2kg on her here (before she got scratched). Returning to a good track should suit this filly and from barrier 3, she’ll be in the first few. It’s hard to fault her. Snowdome finished second behind Revitup and also gets 2kg on her here. This horse has once again drawn a beautiful barrier and his trials suggest that he has some ability. With one race under his belt, he can improve here. Street Parade improved with each trial leading into this race, winning his latest two. One trial was over 1000m, so 1100m shouldn’t be too short for him here. Hopefully, he doesn’t get stuck on the fence from barrier one. Kosta’s Crown was a touch disappointing behind Revitup last start. He didn’t finish that far off the winner though and he actually ran the fastest 600m in the race. He’s drawn wide here, so I suspect he’ll have to go back again. He rounds out an even race.

Suggested bet: Pot Shot, Snowdome, Street Parade and Kosta’s Crown – each way

Race 2 – TABtouch – Better Your Bet Handicap – 1200m – 1:14pm

1 – Ponyo
2 – Advanced
8 – My Marlaina
4 – Knot Secret 

Comment: Ponyo faces a slightly weaker race on paper than she has previously been competing in. Thanks to Keshaw’s claim, she only has to carry 56kg, which makes her competitive. She’s versatile in where she can sit in the run, so she should get an ideal position from barrier 6. She can win without surprising. Advanced got a win on the board at his second start. Whether he preferred the soft track, we’re about to find out here. I do worry that he may settle in an awkward spot from barrier 10 and we’re yet to see if he has a turn of foot, as he’s been in the first few at both of his races. He’s one to watch. My Marlaina is up in class here and on the 9-day backup. She’s yet to finish outside the top two in her career (2:1-1-0). The fact she only has to carry 54kg due to Laqdar’s claim makes her competitive too. She’s great value! Knot Secret has shown great potential at his trials, but he hasn’t always brought that on race day. He’s drawn a touch wide here, but the other conditions look to suit. Hopefully, with one run under his belt this preparation, he can improve here.

Suggested bet: Ponyo, Advanced, My Marlaina and Knot Secret – each way

Race 3 – The Carbine Club Of WA-Apprentices’ Cup – 2200m – 1:54pm

1 – Pure Devotion
4 – Reliable Star
6 – Ripon Falls
3 – Secret Pearl

Comment: Pure Devotion steps up in distance, which is only going to benefit her, given that she placed second at this track/distance in the listed Natasha. Conditions look to suit and hopefully, class sees her winning this. Reliable Star had some excuses second up, but looks ready to bounce back here after a good trial. She placed fourth in the Derby in April, so the distance won’t be an issue. I would have preferred her on a soft track, but she can still run a good race here. Ripon Falls is looking to make it three wins in a row. He’s up in class but is unbeaten at this track/distance (1:1-0-0). This horse already had a low weight, but with Keshaw being a 3kg claiming apprentice, he only has to carry 52.5kg. He’s incredible value! Secret Pearl is on the one-week backup here. She also gets one of the more experienced and successful apprentices in Laqdar riding. Her track/distance record is probably the biggest thing in her favour (6:3-2-1) and as long as she settles in the first few from barrier 4, she’ll run a good race.

Suggested bet: Pure Devotion, Reliable Star, Ripon Falls and Secret Pearl – each way

Race 4 – Dickies Trees Handicap – 1600m – 2:38pm

2 – Big Screen
3 – Secret Statue
1 – Castillo Del Lago
7 – Speed Dream

Comment: Big Screen has really been consistent this preparation, recording two wins and two seconds in four starts. I question whether the 1600m leaves him a touch vulnerable, but the form surrounding last start’s second at this track/distance suggests that he should be ok. From barrier 9, he’ll be giving them something to run down. Secret Statue probably got a touch too far back last start, but he did run home strongly. He steps up in distance here and from barrier 3, he should be able to settle slightly further forward this time. Pike also jumps back on board. Look for him to improve here. Castillo Del Lago has been improving with each run and he put a good margin back to second last start. He steps up ever so slightly in distance, but he has placed at this track/distance before (1:0-0-1). He’ll be right in the finish. Speed Dream comes out of the same race as Big Screen, where he finished fourth, which was his first time racing at this track/distance. He’s been racing really consistently this preparation and last without actually winning. Given that he normally gets back in his races, 1600m should suit and last start isn’t an accurate guide on whether he’ll handle it or not. He’s not without his chances.

Suggested bet: Big Screen, Secret Statue, Castillo Del Lago and Speed Dream – each way

Race 5 – Crown Sports Bar Handicap – 1000m – 3:19pm

3 – Timely Outburst
6 – Vadette De Star
9 – Bopping Blue
2 – Forest War

Comment: Timely Outburst finished second behind Nowhiteflag in a trial, who then came out and won. She’s unbeaten first up (2:2-0-0) and at this track/distance (2:2-0-0). Barrier 10 could cause her a few problems, but at least she only has to carry 56.5kg due to Keshaw’s claim. Hopefully, her statistics hold up here. Vadette De Star probably could have finished closer first up if she hadn’t gotten blocked in the straight and so far back. She’s drawn barrier 11 here, so I suspect she will get back again. She does have a good track/distance record (4:1-1-1) and she’ll improve fitness wise here. Bopping Blue looks well and truly ready to go here after three trials and winning the last two. The form surrounding his one win isn’t the strongest, but it was at this distance (3:1-0-0). Based on his trials though, he should improve here and with not a lot of speed in the race, he’ll easily be able to go forward. Forest War is hard to fault. He was no match for Triple Missile first up, but he still ran a good race. Half of his career runs have been at this track/distance, so he’s no stranger to these conditions. Don’t rule him out.

Suggested bet: Timely Outburst, Vadette De Star, Bopping Blue and Forest War – each way

Race 6 – Happy 50th Birthday Jeff Bailey Handicap – 1500m – 3:52pm

3 – Comfort Me
1 – Cockney Crew
4 – Lorentinio
2 – Dom To Shoot

Comment: Comfort Me surprised me last start and I’m hoping he can do the same here. Prior to last start’s win, his track record was terrible (6:1-0-0). He steps up to 1500m here, but my biggest concern is that he has to carry 60.5kg from barrier 9. This race looks slightly weaker on paper though, so hopefully, he can make it back-to-back wins. Cockney Crew absolutely blew them away at the trials, which was made extra impressive seeing as 1200m looks to be on the shorter side for him. He’s yet to place at this track/distance (1:0-0-0), but he has won first up before (5:1-1-0). 62.5kg does look to be a big ask though. Lorentinio finished third to Comfort Me last start. Thanks mostly to Holly’s claim, he gets 2.5kg on him, though given the margin, I don’t think this is enough to turn the tables on its own. He can be a hit and miss horse, but he’ll give them something to run down. Dom To Shoot is back after a mixed campaign in Victoria. On paper, his trial results are a bit disappointing, but he didn’t finish that far off the winner. Though he’s yet to officially race over 1500m, it looks to suit, and he’s won at Ascot before (11:3-3-2). He’s another horse up in the weights, carrying 60kg with Laqdar’s claim. Look for him to improve next start.

Suggested bet: Comfort Me – each way

Race 7 – Drummond Golf – Fairetha Stakes – 1400m – 4:30pm

3 – It’sarayday
8 – Devoted
4 – Success Play
7 – Stay Safe

Comment: It’sarayday tasted defeat for the first time last start, finishing second to Searchin’ Roc’s, which looks like good form to follow after Tuesday’s race. He steps up to 1400m for the first time, but given his margins over 1100-1200m, I think he should handle it. There’s no reason for him to run a bad race. Devoted finished third to Buzzoom last start, which again, is good form to follow. He’s drawn wide and with hardly any speed in the race, Pike may elect to take him forward. He’s yet to finish outside of the top three in his career (2:1-0-1) and I can’t see that changing here. Success Play is looking to make it 3 wins in a row. He’s really improved at his past 2 starts and he should be continuing that form here. He drops 5kg off last start and there’s nothing really to complain about. Stay Safe finally got a win on the board last start. He seems to have really improved this preparation, though the form surrounding that win is on the weaker side. You can’t knock winning form and he could surprise in this very open race.

Suggested bet: It’sarayday, Devoted and Success Play – each way

Race 8 – WAROA – Lee Steere Stakes – 1400m – 5:07pm

1 – Regal Power
4 – The Velvet King
10 – Dance Music
2 – Valour Road

Comment: Regal Power was his own worst enemy first up, with his freshness leading to him over racing. He has a much better second up record (5:2-1-0) and drops 1.5kg off last start. His track/distance record could be better (5:0-1-1), but he’ll run a good race. The Velvet King has pretty good statistics going into this race. He’s only finished outside of the top 2 once first up (7:3-3-0), and that was because of his run in Melbourne. He’s also yet to finish outside of the top 3 at this track/distance (5:3-1-1). It took a few trials to get him spot on, but he’s following a nearly identical preparation to last start where he won the group 3 Belmont Sprint first up. I’m hoping he can put in a repeat performance here. Dance Music won a key lead up race to this one in the Northerly. As a result, of this race being a weight for age, she does have to give some of these other horses some weight. Conditions really look to suit her though, especially the track/distance (3:1-0-1). Barrier 9 may make things a little tricky for her, but at least she’ll be able to get to the front and give them something to run down. Valour Road has finished third at both stats this preparation. Last preparation it took him a few runs to get going, so he should be hitting his stride here. He’s placed at this track/distance (4:0-1-1) and has drawn beautifully in barrier 3. He can surprise.

Suggested bet: Regal Power, The Velvet King, Dance Music and Valour Road  – each way

Race 9 – Amelia Park Handicap – 1200m – 5:45pm

14 – Bright Diamond
5 – Angelic Miss
12 – Universal Pleasure
7 – The Fugazi

Comment: Bright Diamond was no match for Wilchino last start, but that form is a good one to follow. She steps up in distance here which looks to benefit (3:1-2-0) and she has a good second up record (2:1-0-1). She looks to be well placed here. Angelic Ruler won in a nice fashion first up. Her second up record is just as good (2:1-1-0) and she loves this track/distance (6:3-2-0). The red flag is how far back she’s going to get from barrier 16. While she has the turn of foot to help overcome this, if she ends up with a wall of horses in front of her, she could get into some trouble. She has class and ability, but she’ll need some luck. Universal Pleasure finished second to Angelic Ruler last start and gets 2kg on her here, but that’s due to Laqdar’s claim. She ticks all of the boxes in terms of track/distance record (2:1-1-0), weight and barrier. My top two tips just have slightly better form surrounding their races. There’s no reason why she can’t win though. The Fugazi drops down in class, so does rise 3kg off last start’s third. He’s been racing consistently this preparation but just finds one better. In saying that, it means the form surrounding his races is very good. His track/distance record is also good, without winning (3:0-1-2). He would have preferred a soft track and he has drawn wide, but he could surprise.

Suggested bet: Bright Diamond, Angelic Miss, Universal Pleasure and The Fugazi – each way

Best Bet

Race 7 – It’sarayday

Quaddie

R6: 1, 2, 3, 4
R7: 3, 4, 7, 8, 10
R8: 1, 2, 4, 6, 10
R9: 5, 7, 12, 14

Confidence rating

I’m not sure it was even worth doing a suggested bet this week, as I seem to have my top four in all of them. So, as you can guess, my confidence is on the lower side. I’m confident my top tips should place but there are a few winning chances in each race. Races 1, 4 and 8 were the hardest to tip. In race 8, I spent ages tossing up whether to put Regal Power or Dance Music on top.

In terms of my horses, good luck to Weaponson in race 5 and The Velvet King in race 8! Weaponson didn’t settle last start, but he hasn’t shown much this preparation. He’ll need things to go his way. The Velvet King on the other hand is ready to go. Western Empire is going to be hard to beat in the Railway next start, so I’m hoping we can get a win here.

Last Week’s Results

R2: first 4
R4: exacta
R5: exacta
R9: boxed first 4
R11: boxed first 4
Winners in top 4: 9/11
Top picks: -,1st, 3rd,1st,1st, -, -, 1st, 3rd (no pay),1st, 2nd
Best bet: no
Quaddie: Yes
Profit:+0.2 ($1ew on top tips & $2ew on bb)