Horse Racing,  Tipping

Ascot 05/12/2020

Conditions

Rail – True
Track – Good 4
Forecast – Max 24 degrees, cloud clearing

Race 1 – Tourism WA Trophy – 1000m – 12:19pm

Ultimate Command placed second and then won a trial leading into this race. The horse that beat her and then placed second behind her is yet to race, so it’s a bit hard to tell how good that trial form is. She’s drawn a touch wide, so she may not end up in an ideal position. She’s one to watch going forward. Flying Missile won a trial before placing third in the Crystal Slipper Stakes, a race for two-year olds. That race day experience could prove valuable in this race which is full of maiden horses. She also gets a senior jockey on board but isn’t penalised in the weights at all. From barrier three she should be able to find the front easily, though it’s hard to know whether she’ll be challenged for that position. Her lack of a turn of foot may leave her a bit vulnerable too. Very hard to split the top two stablemates. Pixie Chix has been improving with each trial, placing in both and went close to winning at her last trial. She has a good barrier and really nothing to complain about. She may be looking for a touch further but at $26 she’s great value. Astrape comes out of the same race as Flying Missile, finishing second to her third. This horse probably had a more ideal run, one back with cover, so given that her trial wasn’t as impressive leading into that race, this could have been the difference. She had a few excuses in that race, so may have even been able to finish that little bit closer. This combined with the fact that Pike jumps on board is probably the reason her odds are that short. She rounds out an incredibly even race!
9 – Ultimate Command
6 – Flying Missile
7 – Pixie Chix
5 – Astrape

Race 2 – Crown Perth Handicap – 1600m – 12:59pm

Mr Delegator performed well last start but should definitely appreciate the step up in distance here. In fact, he’s unbeaten over this distance (1:1-0-0). His form could be stronger, but he’s only placed outside the top three once in his career (6:2-2-1), so looks to have ability. He’s drawn wide too, so he may have to use some energy early on to get a forward position. He has however won from out wide before. He’ll be giving them something to run down. Bragwell drops dramatically in class after coming out of the group 2 WA Guineas. He ran on well but getting that far back in a classy field was probably his undoing. He’s got a good barrier so should settle into a nice position, plus the Wolfe/McGruddy combination is on fire at the moment. His second behind Comes A Time also looks like good form. There’s nothing to complain about. With this is an easier race on paper and if he can bring that listed/group class, he can win this. Tiff Has Spoken is a very consistent horse and looks to be well placed here. He drops down in class, so does increase 2kg on last start, but 58kg isn’t anything ridiculous. He’s yet to race over 1600m but given that he does get back in his runs, I think the step up in distance will benefit. The biggest concern is that he’s drawn extremely wide and while he can run on to some extent, he’ll need some luck. Aconite is a bit hit and miss, but perhaps didn’t handle the conditions and getting so far back last start. She’s drawn a better barrier here, so should be able to get a better position. She’s also placed over this track/distance (4:0-1-1). She drops back in class and would have had to carry 63kg without Carleen’s claim. Luckily with Carleen’s claim she’ll only have to carry 60kg, but this still looks to be a big ask. Class could see her winning, but the weight may just get in the way.
8 – Mr Delegator
11 – Bragwell
5 – Tiff Has Spoken
1 – Aconite

Race 3 – TABtouch – Better Your Bet Handicap – 1100m – 1:39pm

Long Beach has been knocking on the door for a win at his past two starts. His form two starts ago where he finished second up Elite Street looks pretty strong after his win in the Winterbottom last weekend. He has a very good track record (6:2-1-2) and has placed at this track/distance before (1:0-1-0). He’s got a good barrier and Pike in the saddle. There’s no reason for him to run a bad race! Plutocracy has been hard to fault since moving to WA back in February 2019. His only bad run was first up last preparation, but he got blocked the entire straight, so few excuses there. He looks to be following a similar path here compared to last preparation, running from November till April (perhaps to avoid the soft tracks). His first up record is good (6:1-2-0), as is his track/distance record (3:1-0-1). The inside barrier may mean that he might get stuck on the fence and get into a bit of trouble and the form surrounding his races isn’t as strong as my top tip. However, with his consistency, he is a threat. Gates Of Babylon got scratched last week due to a virus so fingers crossed he’s recovered from that. He’s won a trial leading into this race, so certainly looks ready to go. He also goes well fresh, with a good first up record (3:1-1-1). He’s never raced at this distance before, but his winning trial was over 950m and he has won multiple times over 1200m, so I don’t think this will be too short for him. 1200m-1400m does look to be his sweet spot though, so look out for him as he steps up in distance. He looks to be the leader, though they may opt to sit behind Ziebell who looks to go forward from that wide barrier. He hasn’t raced since June so may need this run for fitness, but he’s a live chance. Shinju was disappointing last preparation, to say the least. There were a few excuses in the stewards’ report, but connections were probably expecting more seeing as he was coming off two decent trials. He’s had just the one trial leading into this race which he finished second in. He’s yet to win first up (5:0-1-2) but returning to Ascot (2:1-1-0) and a good track should definitely benefit him. He drops 3kg due to the rise in class and has a good barrier, so shouldn’t get too far back. Look for him to bounce back here.
5 – Long Beach
6 – Plutocracy
4 – Gates Of Babylon
10 – Shinju

Race 4 – Amelia Park Handicap – 2200m – 2:19pm

Midnight Blue showed a good turn of foot last start, coming out and winning at this track/distance. That was his first win at track/distance, but he has placed before (2:1-1-0). The two red flags for me is that Pike has had to jump off as he would have been carrying 60kg with Carleen’s claim (he now only has to carry 57kg). He’s also drawn extremely wide and though he has a turn of foot like I previously mentioned, it always leaves the door open for trouble and getting stuck in traffic. Ability should help him make it three wins in a row. Come Right Back finished fourth to Midnight Blue last start, after racing wide throughout. He actually has to give Midnight Blue 1.5kg here, despite that result, due to Carleen’s claim. However, he’s a consistent horse and that was his first time out of the top three at this track/distance (3:1-0-1), so look for him to bounce back here. The only thing stopping him from getting a first three place is that he too has drawn wide and doesn’t have a turn of foot like Midnight Blue. Therefore, he may have to use some energy early on to get a forward position, or seeing as he’s drawn just inside Midnight Blue, he may track him into the race. He can win without surprising. Adornment also comes out of the Midnight Blue race, with this horse finishing third. She dislodged a tooth before that run, but had an ideal position in running, so was probably just beaten by the better horse on the day. The positive here is that she gets Pike back. However, she’s drawn the carpark and is yet to win at this track/distance (3:0-0-2). She may just find her fellow cerise and white horse too good once again. Mosseratti could be getting passed his peak as a now nine-year-old, but he still always tries his hardest. He finished fifth in Midnight Blue’s race but doesn’t get any weight relief on him here, so it’s hard to see him turning the tables. He’s no stranger to this track/distance, though is yet to win under these conditions (9:0-3-2). The small silver lining is that he’s the only one in my top four to actually draw a decent barrier. He just looks to be slightly outclassed though.
1 – Midnight Blue
3 – Come Right Back
5 – Adornment
14 – Pink And Purple

Race 5 – Ascend Sales – Jungle Dawn Classic – 1400m – 2:54pm

Chantrea is unbeaten in every statistic possible, winning all career starts (6:6-0-0). She has ability and Pike must know it seeing as he picked to ride her over two cerise and white horses. She has drawn a bit sticky in barrier nine, but she has won from barrier seven before. Her trial wasn’t flashy leading into this race, but I suspect they weren’t looking to break any track records. This is her toughest race to date, and she will only improve as she steps up in distance and gets fitter. No reason why she can’t make it seven wins from seven starts. Serenity Bay is the definition of consistent but also showed a great turn of foot last start, coming from near last to finish second. Her second up record is good (3:1-1-1) though surprisingly she’s yet to win at this track/distance (2:0-2-0). She too has drawn wide, but her turn of foot should see her overcome this with no problem. She’s not unbeaten in all her career starts, but I really can’t fault her. She’s a threat to my top tip. Ration Aly was her own worst enemy last start, so hopefully she’s on her best behaviour here. She’s unbeaten second up (2:2-0-0) and at this distance (2:2-0-0). She’s versatile in that she can sit in the first few or sit back and unleash a great turn of foot. With not many horses looking to go forward, I suspect that she’ll be in the first few due to the inside barrier. As long as she brings the best version of herself, she can win this and is great value at $14/$3.80. Tycoon Storm actually beat Ration Aly last start (third to sixth) and may have even gone closer to winning had she not got blocked in the straight. She’s yet to official race at this track/distance but has won at this distance (4:3-0-0) and track before (2:1-0-1). Barrier one may see her get stuck on the fence again, but at least if she jumps well, she’ll be able to get a forward position as she likes. Based on last start’s performance she could easily win here, and despite being this far down my list, I’m not surprised to see her as favourite. She rounds out a very even race.
1 – Chantrea
6 – Serenity Bay
11 – Ration Aly
10 – Tycoon Storm

Race 6 – TABtouch – Sir Ernest Lee-Steere Classic – 1400m – 3:30pm

Chantorque has won three races leading into this race but this is definitely her toughest race to date. While she’s unbeaten at Ascot (4:4-0-0), she steps up to 1400m for the first time, so there is a slight question mark over whether she’ll handle the distance. She has a good barrier though and isn’t penalised in the weights for winning a listed race last start. There doesn’t look to be an obvious leader in the race, so I’m concern that given she likes to settle on speed, she may in fact find herself leading, which is another unknown. If she can handle my concerns she can win. Western Empire showed a massive turn of foot last start in the WA Guineas, coming from last to finish fourth. He has a much better barrier here, so may not find himself as far back. Dropping back in distance also looks to suit, though he’s yet to win over this track/distance (1:0-1-0). With Pike riding and dropping 1.5kg off last start’s run, he has a lot going in his favour. His turn of foot will be his biggest weapon! Snickerdoodledandy doesn’t seem to appreciate getting back in her runs, with that being a possibility here from the wide barrier. In saying that though, she did win two starts ago from the back, so perhaps she just didn’t like the heavy track last start. Dropping back in distance will definitely suit her, as she’s unbeaten at this distance (2:2-0-0) and track/distance (1:1-0-0). Connections would be more confident if she was running on a soft track, but as long as she can get out and run on, she can surprise. Kissonallforcheeks had a tonne of excuses last start, so just put a line through that run. She’s another horse that will benefit from dropping back in distance (1:0-1-0) and returning to a good track. She beat quite a few of these horses two starts ago but doesn’t have to give them any weight as a result of the conditions of the race. She’s also won from barrier eight before. Her lack of turn of foot would be the only downside but at $12/$3.30, she’s another value tip you can’t rule out.
3 – Chantorque
5 – Western Empire
4 – Snickerdoodledandy
8 – Kissonallforcheeks

Race 7 – Glenroy Chaff – A.J. Scahill Stakes – 1400m – 4:10pm

Celebrity Queen comes out of the group 1 Winterbottom where she absolutely flew home to narrowly finish second. Interestingly, she steps up to 1400m for the first time in her career, but this should only give her more time to run them down. Her record at Ascot is great (8:3-3-0) and considering this is a group 3, she really hasn’t been penalised at all for last start’s performance. She gets a slightly better barrier here and Pike back in the saddle. The distance and one-week backup are the only concerns for me, but her ability should see her winning this. Flirtini has been disappointing this preparation, with her trials suggesting that she had great times ahead of her. She has got back in both of those runs, with one being on a heavy track, so perhaps the conditions just didn’t suit her. She’s drawn a very good barrier here, so hopefully Paul does opt to settle her no worse than midfield. She too comes out of the Winterbottom where she finished fifth, though her last 600m time was the second quickest behind Celebrity Queen. She’s yet to win at this track/distance (2:0-1-0) but she could surprise. Laverrod looked to be outclassed in the group two Lee Steere two starts ago but did bounce back with a third in the listed Carbine Club last start. Interestingly he did beat Celebrity Queen three starts ago and still gets 1kg on her here. The conditions of this race does mean he rises 4kg off last start, despite rising in class. This does look to make this race a little bit more difficult for him, plus he’s drawn wide, so will have to use energy early on to get that forward position. His track/distance record is in his favour (4:1-0-2). The addition of winkers again may also help him to settle a bit more. This race is a tough ask, but you certainly can’t rule him out. Kementari looked promising in the Railway after putting in a good performance in the group two Lee Steere, but really failed to fire. He did get blocked in the straight, but given his Eastern states form, I thought he would have done a little bit better. Dropping back to 1400m should benefit him, as he does have a good record over this distance (8:2-2-2). He can bounce back here but I feel his winning best is behind him.
10 – Celebrity Queen
9 – Flirtini
8 – Laverrod
1 – Kementari

Race 8 – Peoplestart – Kingston Town Classic – 1800m – 4:50pm

Watch Me Dance has just been winning every challenge that has been thrown at her. I thought the group three Champion Fillies run may have taken too much out of her, but I was proven wrong when she won the group two WA Guineas. She steps up to group one grade here but due to this race being weight for age, the 50kg makes her a very attractive top tip. The step up to 1800m does raise a few questions and this is definitely her toughest race to date. With the good barrier, she should settle in an ideal position and then run on strongly from there. Rumour has it that connections are thinking of taking her east next year, so she’ll want to run well here if that’s going to be the case. She’s a fighter and the $11 was hard to resist. Inspirational Girl is a horse that I’ve supported for a long time, so it goes against every bone in my body not to have her on top. She won the Railway in a fantastic way, with that turn of foot just breathtaking! It’s that turn of foot which will be her biggest advantage here. It’s also the thing that should help her overcome the carpark barrier, especially if she was to get back in the field. She’s yet to place outside of the top three in her career (11:9-1-1), though steps up to 1800m for the first time. She also rises 4kg off the Railway win. For a superstar like her though 57kg shouldn’t be an issue. She deserves to be favourite! Too Close The Sun is the first up in my top four who is actually proven at this track/distance (2:1-0-1). He looked to be the winner in the Railway, but Inspirational Girl was just too good. He actually has to give her 2kg here but does get a better barrier than her. Him and brother Trap For Fools look to be the two pace setters in this race, so given that they’re from the same stable, I’ll be interested to see what tactics are used. It’s going to be hard to turn the tables on Inspirational Girl, but I suspect he’ll be hard to beat come Perth Cup time. Trap For Fools certainly didn’t do his best racing in Melbourne last preparation, but looks ready to bounce back here after two good trials leading into this race. He’s yet to win first up (9:0-2-1) or at this track/distance (4:0-0-2), but he is one that is no stranger to 1800m (9:1-1-3). He’s going to have to use energy to get to the front from that extremely wide barrier and the 59kg may just take its toll when you have some horses with only 50kg on their back. Based on his trials I felt the $81/$16 was particularly harsh, especially as anything can happen in a group one!
16 – Watch Me Dance
12 – Inspirational Girl
4 – Too Close The Sun
2 – Trap For Fools

Race 9 – Seacorp Handicap – 1200m – 5:30pm

Angelic Miss won last start, showing a good turn of foot in the process. The form surrounding that win and her other races isn’t particularly strong, but I do like her second behind Solaia three starts ago, where we saw that turn of foot too. She has a good barrier so shouldn’t get too far back, plus Chris is two for two on her. I also like her track/distance record (2:1-1-0). She’s also only finished outside the top three once in her career (5:2-1-1), with her getting too far back in that race. In a field that doesn’t have a standout superstar, she’s a good chance. Enduring Moment was an emergency but gets a start with the scratching of Cooking With Gas. He comes into this race without a trial which is a slight concern given that his first up record isn’t the best (3:0-0-1). 1200m looks to suit too, though surprisingly he hasn’t won at this distance before (3:0-1-0). He really hit his straps when racing at Belmont last preparation, so I’m curious as to how he’ll handle Ascot. Chris jumps off in favour of Angelic Miss but having Pat ride certainly isn’t a negative. He should only improve next start once he has one run under his belt. Cockyjoy has been recording career best results at her last two starts, which may be put down to her loving to run for Jade or having matured this preparation. She’s third up so will definitely be spot on fitness wise. She definitely seems to be more of a 1000m horse, having never placed over this distance (5:0-0-0), but she does like Ascot (2:1-1-0). Connections would have been more confident if she was racing on a soft track and had drawn a better barrier, but she’s a great value tip. Dark Mission definitely does her best work when fresh (2:1-0-1) and looks ready to go after winning a trial convincingly leading into this race. She’s another cerise and white horse that has a turn of foot, which looks to be a valuable trait here. She’s won over this distance before (3:1-0-1) and Pike is always a positive. I just think her form could have been a little bit stronger, with this being the only reason she’s this far down my list. She can win this.
12 – Angelic Miss
17 – Enduring Moment
13 – Cockyjoy
6 – Dark Mission


Best Bet

Race 7 – Celebrity Queen

Confidence rating

These races are some of the best to end the Masters on, but it certainly doesn’t help my confidence. In fact, races 3 and 7 are the only ones I’m confident about. However, this is my last preview for this year (I’ll resume Perth Cup day), so I’m hoping to end the year on a high.

Last Week’s Results

Saturday 28/11/2020
R6- boxed trifecta
Winners in top 4 – 6/9
Top picks: -, 2nd, -, -, 1st, 1st, -, -, -, –
Best bet: –
Profit: -11.7
Wednesday 02/12/2020
R1-boxed first four
R2-boxed trifecta
R3-boxed trifecta
R5-quinella
Winners in top 4 – 7/8
Top picks: 3rd (no pay), 1st, 3rd, 1st, 2nd, -, -, 1st
Best bet: 1st
Profit: -3.44

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