Ascot 04/12/2021

Conditions

Rail – 8m
Track – Good 4
Forecast – Max 33 degrees, sunny

Race 1 – Tourism WA Trophy – 1000m – 12:05pm

1 – Revitup
6 – Costume Party
10 – Mrs Kangaroo
8 – Ciao Luna

Comment: Revitup was pipped on the line last start in the Crystal Slipper, a key race for two-year-olds. Thanks to Holly’s claim, she only has to carry 54kg, which means that despite her having a few runners under her belt, she meets some of these maidens better at the weights. She’s unbeaten at this track/distance (1:1-0-0) and will give them something to run down.  Costume Party won at her maiden start. She had an ideal run there, but she should get another great run from barrier 2 here. Her one trial leading into that race suggested that she had some ability, so I suspect she’ll put in another great run here. Mrs Kangaroo has won two and placed second in three trials leading into this race. The trials were only 400m, so while 1000m won’t be too short, that distance doesn’t always give an accurate guide on their ability. Watch out for her though at good value. Ciao Luna is in almost the exact same boat as Mrs Kangaroo. This horse’s margins haven’t been as impressive, but Pike does jump on board. Anything can happen in these two-year-old races. 

Suggested bet: Revitup, Costume Party, Mrs Kangaroo and Ciao Luna – each way

Race 2 – TABtouch Better Your Bet Handicap – 1200m – 12:45pm

6 – Vadette De Star
4 – Mercanto
11 – Wednesday
9 – Miss Vasari

Comment: Vadette De Star has been getting back in her races this preparation and hasn’t quite been able to run them down. She’s drawn barrier 1 here, so hopefully, she can settle further forward. Surprisingly, she’s never placed at this distance (2:0-0-0), but that can change here. Wednesday looks to be ready to continue her good form after winning first up, after 6 frustrating top 4 places last preparation. I question whether Ascot isn’t her favourite track, but she’s no stranger to this distance (6:1-3-1). She’s up in class but is a sneaky chance. Mercanto got blocked in the straight last start and was last on the corner, so he did well to finish only 2.5 lengths off the winner. He may have to go back once again from barrier 9 and he does rise 3kg off last start’s run. Look for him to bounce back here though. Miss Vasari has recorded two fourths this preparation. She came into this preparation without a trial though, so she should improve off these runs fitness wise. She’s up in distance, but this should just give her more time to catch them and she has placed at this track/distance (1:0-1-0). She rounds out an even race.

Suggested bet: Vadette De Star, Mercanto, Wednesday and Miss Vasari – each way

Race 3 – Amelia Park Handicap – 1100m – 1:25pm

4 – Written Matter
6 – Forest War
5 – Ain’t No Other Man
9 – Night Voyage

Comment: Written Matter is coming off a nice win first up. He looks to be in for another good preparation, considering the only time he hasn’t won was in a listed race at Belmont (4:3-0-0). Therefore, he’s unbeaten at this track (2:2-0-0) and second up (1:1-0-0). While he’s officially yet to race at 1100m, his attempts at 1000m and 1200m suggest that he should handle it. I’m not surprised to see him start as the favourite. Forest War is a pretty consistent horse without winning. Last preparation it did take him a few runs before he performed at his best, so we should see him hitting his stride right about now with 3 runs under his belt. The only thing that is concerning is that he’s yet to place at this track/distance (2:0-0-0). Ain’t No Other Man was disappointing last start with nothing major written in the stewards’ report. He drops down from listed level, so that should help his chances. He only has to carry 53kg with Laqdar’s claim and he’s proven at this track/distance (2:1-1-0). He can bounce back here. Night Voyage has put in two really nice runs at his past 2 starts; he was simply beaten by better horses. I question whether he’ll find my top tip too good, but Pike does jump on board here. He could surprise.

Suggested bet: Written Tycoon – each way

Race 4 – Tour Edge Handicap – 2200m – 2:05pm

4 – Reliable Star
5 – Conquered Zone
2 – Black Shadow
7 – Dance Of The South

Comment: Reliable Star nearly upset fellow cerise and white horse, Pure Devotion, last start. Pike jumps back on board here and she has a pretty good track/distance record without winning (3:0-2-1). Everything maps for her to get a win here. Conquered Zone has been racing really well this preparation and is also knocking on the door for a win. He’s placed at this track/distance (1:0-1-0) and only has to carry 52kg with Keshaw’s claim. What is a concern is how far back he’ll get from barrier 12. Hopefully, his low weight helps to overset that, as we have seen him run on in the past. Black Shadow finished third to Reliable Star’s second last start, but only gets 0.5kg on her here. He’s appreciated the step up in distance and he’s no stranger to this track/distance (5:1-1-2). In a large field, I hope he doesn’t get too far back, because if he doesn’t, he can run a good race. Dance Of The South has appreciated the step up to 2200m lately combined with a forward position. She’s up in class and she’ll have to use some energy early on to get to the front. A horse that likes to lead over these longer distances always makes me nervous, but she’s great value!

Suggested bet: Reliable Star and Conquered Zone – each way

Race 5 – Glenroy Chaff – A.J. Scahill Stakes – 1400m – 2:45pm

4 – Stageman
6 – Comfort Me
7 – Solaia
3 – Massimo

Comment: Stageman is on the one-week backup after finishing second in the Winterbottom. He showed a great turn of foot there but was no match for Graceful Girl. He steps up in distance here, so that should just give him more time to run them down, though he’s yet to place over 1400m (1:0-0-0). Pike jumps back on board and from barrier 1 and with a small field, that turn of foot could be deadly. The distance is my only concern. Comfort Me finished second in the Railway where he had to overcome a wide barrier, though he ended up with an ideal run. Barrier 5 and a small field will suit him and he’s proven at this track/distance (2:1-0-0). He does rise 6kg of last start but has previously won with 60.5kg. It wouldn’t be a surprise to see him win. Solaia brings slightly weaker form lines to this race, but a second in a listed race is still good form. With not a lot of speed in the race, we could see her sitting in the first two inside Massimo. She’s placed at this track/distance (3:0-2-0), though she is probably looking for further. She’s incredible value though. Massimo looks to have found the extra 200m of the Railway a touch too far. He drops down in distance to a one that he loves at Ascot (4:1-2-1). If the track is favouring leaders by now, then he’s one to watch. He can bounce back here.

Suggested bet: Stageman, Comfort Me, Solaia and Massimo – each way

Race 6 – Tabtouch – Sir Ernest Lee-Steere Classic – 1400m – 3:25pm

2 – Flying Missile
3 – Stay Safe
4 – Acefire
8 – Real Danger

Comment: Flying Missile narrowly won a key lead up race in the listed Placid. However, it’s her consistent form that I really like. I question whether she’s more a 1200m horse, but she placed third two starts ago over 1400m in the listed Burgess Queen and the form surrounding that race looks like good form to follow. Barrier 8 may leave her in a vulnerable spot in running, but she has the ability to make it back-to-back wins. Stay Safe has gone from a maiden to a group 2 placed in just under 2 months. He’s placed at this track/distance (1:0-1-0) and has drawn beautifully in barrier 5. He’s improved out of sight this preparation and he’s one to follow no matter what the result is here. Acefire is looking to make it three wins in a row. Thanks to last start, he’s unbeaten at this distance (1:1-0-0). Pike jumps off in favour of Real Danger and this horse is significantly up in class. Whether he can match it with the best, we’ll find out here. Real Danger hasn’t really been able to match it at listed level at her past two starts. This does concern me here and whether she’ll handle the distance. I just feel like you can’t leave out a Pike/Peters/Williams combination in a feature race and a race where you can make a case for nearly every horse.

Suggested bet: Flying Missile, Stay Safe, Acefire and Real Danger – each way

Race 7 – Ascend Sales – Jungle Dawn Classic – 1400m – 4:05pm

9 – Bright Diamond
4 – Angelic Miss
10 – Real Charisma
5 – Sheza Chalmer

Comment: Bright Diamond had no luck in the straight last start, so that’s a bit of a forgive run. She steps up in distance here which looks to suit (3:1-1-1) and from barrier 3, she might not get as far back as last start. She also gets 1.5kg on Angelic Miss. Look for her to bounce back here. Angelic Miss is in fine form at the moment. She steps up in distance here, which is slightly concerning given her distance record (2:0-0-0). She’s also drawn wide, but she has previously shown a good turn of foot. It wouldn’t be a surprise to see her win here, but she’ll need to see out 1400m. Real Charisma was disappointing last start with nothing really written in the stewards’ report. She drops down in distance here which definitely looks to suit given that she’s unbeaten at this distance (2:2-0-0) and track/distance (1:1-0-0). She’s drawn wide, so I suspect she’ll have to go back from that barrier. At least she has a turn of foot though. Pike does jump off in favour of Bright Diamond, but this horse is great value. Sheza Chalmer finished third behind Angelic Miss last start, showing a really good turn of foot in the process. She’s drawn better here, so if she can settle further forward, that turn of foot could be deadly. She’s also placed at this distance (1:0-1-0), so there’s really no excuse for her to run a bad race.

Suggested bet: Bright Diamond, Angelic Miss, Real Charisma and Sheza Chalmer – each way

Race 8 – Drummond Golf-Kingston Town Classic – 1800m – 4:45pm

7 – Western Empire
10 – Searchin’ Roc’s
1 – Regal Power
9 – Kissonallforcheeks

Comment: Western Empire was just dominating in the Railway Stakes and his 4L win was impressive! He has drawn a touch wide here, but we know he can run on. He also steps up in distance, to one that he’s unbeaten over at Ascot (1:1-0-0). It’s incredibly hard to fault him and that’s the reason his odds are so short. Searching’ Roc’s brings slightly different form lines to this race after winning the Champion Fillies. She races at 1800m, but it looks to suit and she loves Ascot (3:2-1-0). Three-year-old fillies have a good record in this race and with just 50kg on her back, she could potentially upset the favourite. Regal Power had a trial between the Lee Steere Stakes and this race, which he won. I’m hoping that trial was to keep him fit and the spacing between his runs was deliberate and not due to an injury concern. He steps up in distance here, which is definitely going to suit him, though he’s only placed at this track/distance (2:0-1-0). Considering that he’s a Railway Stakes and All Star Mile winner, he meets the other horses well in the weights. Whether he’s as good as he once was, I’m not sure, but he’ll make his presence felt here. Kissonallforcheeks finished third in the Railway, performing well on the one-week backup. She steps up to 1800m for the first time and I do question whether 1200-1600m is more of her ideal distance. She’s drawn well though and is in good form, so she deserves a crack at this race.

Suggested bet: Western Empire – each way

Race 9 – Crown Perth Handicap – 1600m – 5:20pm

2 – Expressionist
9 – Memorable Miss
3 – Koranis
7 – Bragwell

Comment: Expressionist looked to have turned his form around last start, finally getting a win on the board. He can be a bit and miss horse and does need things to go his own way. He steps up in distance here to one that he hasn’t placed over (1:0-0-0), but otherwise, conditions look to suit. Hopefully, he brings his A game once again. Memorable Miss is also coming off a win, though be it in a weaker class. She’s slightly more consistent than her fellow cerise and white horse and she’s unbeaten at this distance (1:1-0-0). Combined with her turn of foot and versatility in where she can sit in the race, this does make me nervous. I’m hoping Pike and I have both made the right decision with Expressionist. Koranis did well to finish where he did considering his odds. While he has a good track/distance record (3:1-0-1), the other conditions look to make this race a little bit harder, including the wide barrier and that he rises 4kg off last start’s run (which is helped by Keshaw’s 3kg claim). He’s good value. Bragwell looks to have turned a corner this preparation and has simply been beaten by better horses. He’s placed at this track/distance (3:0-1-1) and Shaun jumps back on board and is someone who has a great association with this horse. He’s not without his chances.

Suggested bet: Expressionist, Memorable Miss, Koranis and Bragwell – each way

Best Bet

Race 4 – Reliable Star

Quaddie

R6: 1, 2, 3, 4, 8
R7: 4, 5, 9, 10
R8: 1, 7, 10
R9: 2, 9

Confidence rating

Confidence wise I’m not really confident about any race in particular. Races 1, 4, 6, 7 and 9 are probably the ones I’m worried about the most. I thought Written Tycoon in race 3 would have been more popular with other tipsters too, so now I’m a bit worried about him. I’m just hoping to end the year (as this is my last week of tipping) on a high.

Last Week’s Results

R9:boxed trifecta
Winners in top 4: 7/9
Top picks: 1st, -, -, -, 1st, 2nd,-,-, 3rd
Best bet: –
Quaddie: No
Profit: -9.8 ($1ew on top tips & $2ew on bb)