Horse Racing,  Tipping

Ascot 04/01/2020

Conditions

Rail – 3m
Track – Good 4
Forecast – Max 27 degrees, sunny

Race 1 – TabTouch Better Your Bet Plate – 1000m – 12:24pm

American Choice has never placed outside the top three (3:1-1-1) and gets in well with Jade’s claim. She also has the most experience in this field. Sunnysilk came second to American Choice last start after coming off two very good trials. With her first start under her belt, she should only improve here. Gemma’s Son was super impressive, winning his second trial by ten lengths. This is his first time at the races but if he repeats that performance, he can definitely be winning but even if he doesn’t, he’s one to watch going forward. All Day Session has trialled well including one over 1000m which is a positive in my books as I know he can handle the distance. He’s great value too, opening at $31/1.
1 – American Choice
5 – Sunnysilk
4 – Gemma’s Son
2 – All Day Session

Race 2 – Amelia Park Handicap – 1000m – 1:04pm

We’ve Got Dreams is a horse I had an opinion of back when she started racing and she finally seems to be hitting her straps now, having won three in a row. She does step up in class here and the wide barrier means she’s going to need to use a bit of petrol early on to get to the front, but she brings confidence and fitness from those previous runs. Indian Pacific won his maiden race at his first start and he also won two trails leading into that race. It wouldn’t be a surprise at all to see him winning and he’ll definitely give my top tip a run for her money, especially as they’ve both drawn wide and outside of each other. Guesteen had plenty of trials leading into her first race which she then won. The form surrounding that race is a bit unknown, but she did do a bit wrong and still won. Jason knows the horse well and should give her a lovely ride, especially with that weight and barrier. Endovanera has won one race (3:1-0-0) but I question whether stepping down in distance is the best choice.
3 – We’ve Got Dreams
4 – Indian Pacific
9 – Guesteen
7 – Endovanera

Race 3 – Ascend Sales Trophies Handicap – 1600m – 1:44pm

Megazone’s last two runs have been quite good and he seems to be the horse in the best form in what looks to be a fairly weak race. Star Value steps up 400m in distance compared to last start. He’s had twelve months off racing after coming midfield in the Perth Cup last year. However, he did win a 2200m race before the cup run, so the step up in distance shouldn’t be an issue and neither should fitness. Heart Starter has faced some very good horses this preparation with varying results. The drop down in class should help, though he has to carry a lot of weight, even with Harry’s claim. Over There looks to be improving with each run. Last starts improved performance could be put down to the fact that she was able to settle further forward compared to her previous two runs, so I’d be hoping she does the same again here.
2 – Megazone’s
3 – Star Value
1 – Heart Starter
8 – Over There

Race 4 – Mumm Champagne Handicap – 2200m – 2:24pm

Sentimental Gift should be giving Mr Peters his first city winner for 2020. This horse definitely has ability, never placing outside of the top three (8:3-3-2) and she also has form behind British Bessy who is racing in the Perth Cup. The weight is a slight concern, but I believe she can overcome this. She would have been my best bet but her odds are too short for me. Alimentaria comes into this race off three country wins in a row and while I question the form surrounding those races, she’s in the best form of her career. Proxy should appreciate the step up in distance and while he doesn’t have a great win record, he’ll be giving them something to run down. High Energy has been in the finish the last few runs (except last start where he got too far back) and I expect him to be with them when they cross the line again.
1 – Sentimental Gift
4 – Alimentaria
6 – Proxy
7 – High Energy

Race 5 – Seppelt “The Drives” Handicap – 1400m – 3:00pm

Inspirational Girl is two for two in her career which is hard to ignore when it’s combined with the dream team of Peters, Williams and Pike. Her trials weren’t outstanding, and she could get into an awkward spot from the wide barrier, but she’ll be given every chance to win. Stevie’s Wonder is another horse with great potential, also having never placed outside of the top three (3:1-1-1). He, however, has also drawn wide and is up in class. Inflation is having a fifth jockey ride in as many starts this preparation, so hopefully this time they found the right fit. He ran a nice second to Massimo three starts ago and while he’s no superstar, his record isn’t terrible. No Apology raced quite well last preparation before going for a spell. He doesn’t seem to have come back as well this preparation and the wide barrier is a huge concern, but he should be fitter second up.
10 – Inspirational Girl
12 – Stevie’s Wonder
1 – Inflation
6 – No Apology

Race 6 – Mrs Mac’s – La Trice Classic – 1800m – 3:40pm

Like A Butterfly has been the bridesmaid this preparation, with two seconds in two listed races. She also gets 1.5kg on Snowchino, who beat her last start. Snowchino won last start and has been improving with each run. She should also be leading, so if the track is leader bias by now then watch out for her. Mizlecki’s run last start against Like a Butterfly and Snowchino wasn’t too bad, plus she gets 1.5kg on Snowchino this time too. She won the oaks over 2000m in 2018, so while she hasn’t raced at this distance before, it shouldn’t be a problem. Look for her to be right there in the finish. Friar’s Fantasia could be the dark horse in this race. She is on the one-week backup, after winning at Bunbury last start and her other races have been consistent, with the only question being whether her form is good enough to match these horses.
3 – Like A Butterfly
4 – Snowchino
2 – Mizlecki 
9 – Friar’s Fantasia

Race 7 – Furphy – Summer Scorcher – 1000m – 4:20pm

Essential Spice is going from strength to strength and this looks like another very winnable race. The only question mark is the step up in class but with her ability, I highly doubt that will be a problem. Fabergino won last start after coming straight from a spell, beating Stageman in the process, which is very good form in my opinion. With impressive career statistics (9:6-0-2), she’ll be right up there. Undisclosed is in career best form, including a second to Essential Spice two starts ago. Whether she can turn the tables I’m not sure, but she can run a cheeky race. The Celt drops down in class after winning a group 3 last start. He has a good track/distance record (2:1-1-0), but I think he could be outclassed here.
6 – Essential Spice
5 – Fabergino
10 – Undisclosed
1 – The Celt

Race 8 – TabTouch – Perth Cup – 2400m – 5:00pm

Taxagano is not going to know himself without any weight on his back. He also has won or placed at the key lead up races and gets a good barrier. Peter Hall jumps off in favour of Star Exhibit but don’t take anything away from Brad Parnham. Star Exhibit won a group 2 before being disappointing in the group 1s and then bounced back in another group 2, coming third behind Regal Power and Gatting who are fantastic horses. He’s won this race last year and the year before, with good horses and weight the only thing standing in his way for three in a row. Prince Turbo perhaps doesn’t have the experience over other horses in this race, but he has been racing very consistently. I wouldn’t be surprised if he won. British Bessy is a horse you’d love to own and who relishes the longer distances. She also has beaten Sentimental Gift twice, which is very good form. There are just two concerns for me. The first is that she is significantly up in class, but as I like to say, you have to be in it to win it. The second concern is the wide barrier and while she has previously shown a good turn of foot, but I don’t want her to settle too far back and not be able to run on.
13 – Taxagano
1 – Star Exhibit
9 – Prince Turbo
3 – British Bessy

Race 9 – Crown Perth Handicap – 1200m – 5:40pm

Festival Miss was good last preparation and had a nice quiet but good trial leading into this race. Her first up record is also very good (3:2-1-0). She could round out a very good day for Mr Peters. Pablo’sPoem has had nearly a year off from racing (except for one trial in April). His trials this preparation have been good, as was his form prior to his break, but fitness is an obvious question here. PrevailingWinds has been racing very consistently and getting better with each run (haha quite literally after running fourth then third and then second). I’m not sure his form is the best but a top three finish is definitely achievable. Fairview was having the best run this time last year, so is obviously a horse that doesn’t like the winter weather. It is an interesting choice by connections to step her up in class, but it gives me confidence that they believe in her.
4 – Festival Miss
10 – Pablo’s Poem
12 – Prevailing Winds
7 – Fairview


Best Bet

Race 5 – Inspirational Girl

Confidence rating

There are some very evenly matched races plus I’m back after a two-week break, but I’m hoping to start 2020 with a few wins!

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

nineteen + eleven =