Ascot 03/04/2021
Conditions
Rail – 2m
Track – Good 4
Forecast – Max 34 degrees, partly cloudy
Race 1 – TABtouch – Westspeed Platinum Autumn Series Heat 1 – 1000m – 12:23pm
4 – Requisition
8 – Bosnipp
9 – It’s Tiff’s
1 – Scooter’s Machine
Comment: Requisition has been racing pretty consistently later and has a good track/distance record (9:2-2-1). He’s knocking on the door for another win. Bosnipp was slightly disappointing last start but was racing well before that so she should bounce back here. It’s Tiff’s is up in class but has placed at this track/distance (2:0-2-0) and will give them something to run down. Scooter’s Machine is down in distance but looks to be more of a 1200m horse. At least he only has to carry 57.5kg with Kristy’s claim.
Suggested bet: Requisition – each way
Race 2 – Schweppes Handicap – 1100m – 12:59pm
8 – Spiced Delight
2 – Iseered Iseered
4 – Mercanto
3 – Island Charm
Comment: Spiced Delight has had a year away from the track, but her trials suggest she has some ability and she should be right in this. Iseered Iseered is hit and miss but is coming off a convincing win. He’s also unbeaten over this track/distance (1:1-0-0). Mercanto has had just the one race which he won. I would have liked to have seen a bit more in his trial leading into this race, but he is good value. Island Charm had excuses last start in a much more competitive race. She can easily bounce back here.
Suggested bet: Spiced Delight and Iseered Iseered – each way, Mercanto and Island Charm – place
Race 3 – Byron Bay Premium Lager Handicap – 1400m – 1:39pm
5 – Special View
7 – Standout Rose
1 – Billy Ain’t Silly
11 – Stellar Vista
Comment: Special View is up in class, but you can’t ignore the fact that she’s won two in a row leading into this race. Standout Rose is also up in class but looks to have her fair share of ability, being unbeaten at Ascot (1:1-0-0) and only placing outside the top three once (5:2-2-0), which was on a soft track. Billy Ain’t Silly is coming off a good win too but didn’t perform that well last time he raced over 1400m. He only has to carry 58kg with Laqdar’s claim, which does put him back in the race. Stellar Vista didn’t show much at her trials but came out and won at her first race. She’s a sneaky value chance.
Suggested bet: Special View and Standout Rose – each way
Race 4 – Amelia Park Lamb Handicap – 1200m – 2:18pm
1 – Cuballing
3 – Amelia’s Contraire
10 – Wednesday
4 – Prevailing Winds
Comment: Cuballing was disappointing last start. He steps up to 1200m for the first time and only has to carry 58kg with Victoria’s claim. He can bounce back. Amelia’s Contraire hasn’t really run a bad race this preparation. She showed a great turn of foot two starts ago and she gets Pike back in the saddle here. Wednesday ran a good race last start but she may be a touch outclassed here.
Suggested bet: Cuballing, Prize Nemesis and Amelia’s Contraire – each way
Race 5 – Amelia Park Lodge Handicap – 1100m – 2:54pm
6 – Clairvoyance
3 – Charleton Eddie
8 – River Beau
2 – Ziebell
Comment: Clairvoyance’s statistics don’t lie, and her trial performance backed it up. I’d be disappointed if she didn’t run well. Charleton Eddie and River Beau are in good form and are further into their preparation but as long as no one pulls any funny tricks, it’s hard to see them beating Clairvoyance.
Suggested bet: Trifecta – Clairvoyance (1st), Charleton Eddie/ River Beau (2nd Or 3rd)
Race 6 – Amelia Park Beef Handicap – 1500m – 3:30pm
9 – Pletto
6 – Bruce Almighty
4 – Tinsnip
7 – Cockyjoy
Comment: Pletto is just ultra-consistent. She’s got a good turn of foot, good barrier and Pike in the saddle. It’s hard to fault her. Bruce Almighty finished second to Pletto last start and has been racing really well himself. He’s unbeaten at this track/distance (1:1-0-0) and should easily get to the front. Tinsnip had excuses last start, so just put a line through that run. He’s been racing well prior to that and did look to have turned a corner this preparation. He can bounce back here. Cockyjoy actually beat Pletto two starts ago but just isn’t as consistent as her.
Suggested bet: Pletto and Bruce Almighty – each way
Race 7 – Amelia Park Wines Handicap – 1800m – 4:05pm
2 – Big Bada Boom
5 – Secret Pearl
4 – Mosseratti
1 – Bonneville Black
Comment: Big Bada Boom is looking to make it six wins in a row. Some of his wins have been in weaker company but he has the ability. Secret Pearl was very disappointing last start, but she was first up without a trial and has shown she’s better than that. Mosseratti is having start 76 here. He’s consistently third but it’s hard to see him beating the new kids on the block. Bonneville Black will appreciate the step up in distance but has a wide barrier to overcome.
Suggested bet: Big Bada Boom – win
Race 8 – Amelia Park-Karrakatta Plate – 1200m – 4:40pm
3 – Storm Whisper
2 – He’s Gold
15 – Pat’s Got Sass
8 – Hoi An
Comment: Storm Whisper is yet to finish outside of the top two (3:1-2-0). He narrowly finished second in a key lead up race where he was first up. He should only improve off that run and is great value. He’s Gold is looking to make it three wins in a row. He beat Storm Whisper last start and due to the conditions of this race, he doesn’t have to find him any weight. Pat’s Got Sass really didn’t have the ideal run last start but still managed to finish third. She’s got a few gear changes which should help her to roll along nicely. The wide barrier is my only concern. Hoi An beat some good two-year-olds last start. She’s yet to finish outside of the top three (4:2-0-2), but again the wide barrier may just get the better of her.
Suggested bet: Storm Whisper, He’s Gold, Pat’s Got Sass and Hoi An – each way
Race 9 – Crown Perth Handicap – 1400m – 5:15pm
3 – Watch Me Dance
6 – Tycoon Storm
5 – Jericho Missile
2 – Luke’s Gold
Comment: Watch Me Dance looked to have gotten too far back last start in what was a competitive race. This race looks to be easier on paper and we know she’s better than that so hopefully, she can return to her winning ways here. Tycoon Storm is coming off a win first up and is actually unbeaten second up (2:2-0-0). I can easily see why she’s the favourite. Jericho Missile beat Watch Me Dance last start and has had two starts this preparation for two seconds. He’s drawn a touch wide but does have Pike in the saddle. He’s not without his chances here. Luke’s Gold is consistently in the first three or four. He races at one of his favourite track and distance combinations here (10:2-1-2).
Suggested bet: Watch Me Dance and Tycoon Storm – each way
Best Bet
Race 7 – Big Bada Boom
Confidence rating
My confidence rating isn’t too bad. Races 2, 3, 4 and 8 are ones I’d avoid, especially race 8 as you never know what will happen with two-year-olds. Clairvoyance would have been my best bet, but her odds are just way too low for me. I’m hoping it’s a winning day all-round!
Last Week’s Results
R4 – first four
R9 – trifecta
Winners in top 4- 7/9
Top picks: 2nd, -, 3rd, 1st, 1st, -, 1st, 2nd, 1st
Best bet: 1st
Profit: +6.36 ($1ew on top tips and $2ew on bb)
