Ascot 02/11/2019

Conditions

Rail – 9m
Track – Soft 6
Forecast – Max 21, Showers easing

Race 1 – TabTouch – Westspeed Platinum Series Heat 2 – 1200m – 12:32pm

Zip Zam Zoom has been knocking on the door for a while now. With Pike in the saddle and a 4kg swing on Validation, he could be winning here. Validation seems to be a very good horse and it wouldn’t be a surprise if she won. Bee Quick showed a nice turn of foot last start and did have to overcome an outside barrier like today. Sir Mambo won last start and does get some weight relief with Jade’s claim, though the big weight isn’t a concern. If the track gets downgraded to a soft track, he’s one to watch with a good soft track record (4:1-3-0).
10 – Zip Zam Zoom
9 – Validation
8 – Bee Quick
1 – Sir Mambo

Race 2 – Arlec Australia Handicap – 2200m – 1:22pm

Here Comes Lenni won last start and he does seem to possess a turn of foot. Missile Launch ran well last start and while unknown over this distance, he does have a good track record (8:3-2-1). DarkMusket has been facing some very good horses. Hopefully, he can either settle further forward or the extra distance will give him time to run them down. Dark Prospect’s Kalgoorlie Cup performance was disappointing, but he was racing ok before and after that.
4 – Here Comes Lenni
2 – Missile Launch
1 – Dark Musket
3 – Dark Prospect

Race 3 – Muscular Dystrophy WA Plate – 1000m – 2:03pm

With lots of speed in this race, there are quite a few chances. Pretty Style has very good career statistics (4:2-2-0) and after a nice second last start, she should be fitter here. Gotta Motor won his trial leading into this race and after running second in all three career starts, he could get the win here. Drinkwhatyoulike has been racing well, including a win two starts ago. Mia Dolce has much more race experience over these horses, while also dropping down in class. A concern for me is that she came last late September, trialled two weeks later where she came last and then finished mid-field last start, so perhaps something isn’t right.
4 – Pretty Style
5 – Gotta Motor
8 – Drinkwhatyoulike
2 – Mia Dolce

Race 4 – LWP Property Handicap – 1100m – 2:47pm

Ocean’s Fifteen looks to be an incredible horse and one to definitely follow, having perfect career statistics of 2 for 2. Solarize won last start at Bunbury and also seems to be a good horse. He’ll only be fitter second up here and has Pike on board which is another positive. Mankind won his trial and faced some good horses last preparation, though I think he would have preferred a softer track. My Laina is a bit of an outsider, but she ran second to Excise Free last start, who came out and won again on Wednesday, so this is pretty good form.
6 – Ocean’s Fifteen
10 – Solarize
4 – Mankind
8 – My Laina

Race 5 – Myattsfield Vineyards Handicap – 1200m – 3:23pm

Massimo wasn’t so good last start, but I think he can bounce back here, as he’s shown potential in his previous two races before last. Inflation was racing well last preparation and while last start was good, he should improve here being second up and down in class. Cryptic Love has had a long preparation, but she’s been racing consistently. Fa’lion Maschine is not an obvious horse you’d have in your top four, but her trial was ok, and she did get 4th in a listed race last preparation.
11 – Massimo
6 – Inflation
5 – Cryptic Love
10 – Fa’lion Maschine

Race 6 – Scarboro Toyota Handicap – 1400m – 4:00pm

Minus Looks has won his previous two starts and looks to have come back bigger and better this preparation. Platoon won last start and brings great form from the autumn. In Love with Paris got too far back last start but has been racing nicely. Royal Command has trialled ok after having nearly a year off, but he did finish off last year very well.
3 – Minus Looks
6 – Platoon
4 – In Love with Paris
5 – Royal Command

Race 7 – Hosemasters-Asian Beau Stakes – 1400m – 4:35pm

Regal Power has had three trials leading into this race, so he should be fit, while he has performed exceptionally well in the autumn, winning the listed Melvista and group 2 derby. Samizdat was unlucky last start after getting too far back but finished off extremely strong and he should be able to settle further forward with no The Velvet King in the race. Lordhelpmerun may finally get his chance here second up. Mizlecki has trialled nicely and has good form behind Galaxy Star and Gatting.
4 – Regal Power
8 – Samizdat
7 – Lordhelpmerun
1 – Mizlecki

Race 8 – TabTouch – Prince of Wales Stakes – 3yo Classic – 1000m – 5:10pm

Stageman is a horse with plenty of ability and if the track is downgraded to a soft track by now it won’t be a concern. Misty Metal has trialled very nicely coming into this race and while she’s first up, she should be fit due to the three trials. Flirtini is second up here after a good run last start. She was great this time last year with form behind Galaxy Star, so look for her to be improving. ValourRoad won a group 2 race in Adelaide earlier this year and then followed this up with a listed race win at Belmont. He trialled well behind Rock Magic, who has been sent to Melbourne. My only concern is that while he has a perfect soft track record (3:3-0-0), his good track record isn’t as good (7:2-0-0).
6 – Stageman
7 – Misty Metal
9 – Flirtini
4 – Valour Road

Race 9 – Crown Perth Handicap – 1800m – 5:45pm

Lady Sass was very impressive three starts ago where she was first up. If she can repeat that performance she could be winning, but this race is over more distance. Scintillating is a bit of a hit and miss horse but he did win last start over this distance and is down in class, which means he is up in weight, however, he’s also on the one week backup. Go Crying possess a good turn of foot if he doesn’t get too far back. He steps up in distance here which I think he’ll benefit from. He also beat Uni Time four starts ago and Uni Time won last Saturday. Arnie’s Boy has drawn wide which is a concern, but he came second last start from a wide barrier, so he has the ability to overcome it. He’s also been racing consistently and gets in well with the weight claim.
5 – Lady Sass
2 – Scintillating
3 – Go Crying
4 – Arnie’s Boy

Best Bet

Race 6 – Ocean’s Fifteen

Confidence rating

It’s not too bad today, but my biggest concerns are race 7 in Samizat and race 9 where I spent ages debating who to put on top. I’m slightly worried about how the track is going to play out too with this unpredictable weather and it’s been downgraded to a soft 6 since I did my tips.