Ascot 02/05/2020

Conditions

Rail – True
Track – Good 4
Forecast – Max 27 degrees, mostly sunny

Race 1 – Crown Perth Plate– 1000m – 10:53pm

Sassy Trader has had just the one trial this preparation over 1000m, which he won. His previous two trials, one of which he won, also suggest he has some ability. He should only improve off this race day experience. Fish Hook won one trial over 1000m leading into this race. The horse that came second in that trial had its first start and finished third, so this looks like good form to follow. She may get lost from that wide barrier, but connections make good use of Jade’s claim. Choix De Lace is yet to finish better than fourth in her first three starts. However, this does look to be a slightly weaker race and her race day experience in a field of maidens could prove valuable. Nobellity is yet to win a trial but has finished second in two. She may also fall victim to the wide barrier, but she should go well.
2 – Sassy Trader
6 – Fish Hook
5 – Choix De Lace
7 – Nobellity

Race 2 – TabTouch Better Your Bet Handicap – 1100m – 11:31pm

Miss Frost won first up, just a bit over a week and a half ago. She came from last on the corner to win, so proved she posseses some turn of foot. Her first up record is good (2:0-1-1) and she gets Pike in the saddle for the first time. Round The Point won last start, so brings confidence into this race. He’s been racing consistently and is definitely better suited over this distance (or 1000m). If he jumps well he should find the front easily and will give Miss Frost something to run down. Sir Mambo just has to carry 60kg with Jade’s claim, which he handled alright last start, finishing third. His second up record is ok (2:0-1-0), though he would have preferred a softer track. Wakan Tanka has been racing consistently, though just can’t seem to cross the line first. He gets 1.5kg on Point Taken since they met last and carries the same weight as when he versed Round The Point. It’s hard to see him turning the tables but definitely worth putting in your first four.
3 – Miss Frost
2 – Round The Point
1 – Sir Mambo
7 – Wakan Tanka

Race 3 – All-New Northam Suzuki Handicap – 1200m – 12:11pm

Solid Azza seems to possess a good turn of foot, just as long as she doesn’t get boxed in. This turn of foot could prove beneficial given the wide barrier and that she may have to settle towards the end of the field. This definitely looks to be a tougher race but she should go well. Double Jeopardy proved that he had come back good this preparation, finishing second first up. His second up record is ok (4:0-0-2) but he’s drawn better this time and rises only 1kg off that run. He can prove me wrong again. Gates of Babylon is yet to finish outside the top four this preparation and should be fit going into this race. There’s no reason why he can’t win, though I’m worried that the 60.5kg may take its toll, especially as he only carried 54.5kg last start. Solid Azza also gets 2kg on him despite finishing one place better than Gates of Babylon last start. Snippy Miss finished second last start, after recording a second, third and two fourth in her past five runs. She’s the definition of consistent, while rarely winning a race. I would love to see her settle a bit further forward if she wanted to turn the tables. Once again, it wouldn’t be a top four without her.
5 – Solid Azza
1 – Double Jeopardy
2 – Gates of Babylon
9 – Snippy Miss

Race 4 – Northan Carwash Handicap – 1600m – 12:51pm

Tradensia hasn’t finished out the top three in her career (4:2-1-1). She won last start and finished third to Son Of A God two starts ago, which looks to be very good form to follow. Imperialism rises significantly in class here but is yet to finish outside the top two in his career (5:1-4-0). The form surrounding his races isn’t as good and I’m assuming that Pike chose another horse (which got scratched) over him. He steps up to the 1600m for the first time, which does have a question mark over it. However, he should handle it, given he won over 1400m last start. Great value tip if that’s what you like. Ginger Flyer does rise in class here but is yet to finish outside the top three this preparation. She carries just the 54.5kg with Chloe’s claim, however, she may have to use too much petrol to get to the front from that barrier. She deserves a crack at this though. Deputano beat Mr Kunafa two starts ago, which is pretty good form to follow. He then did a bit wrong at his last start but still managed to finish second. His distance record is good (3:1-0-2), so I expect him to go well.
5 – Tradensia
8 – Imperialism
13 – Ginger Flyer
7 – Deputano

Race 5 – Northam Mazda3 2020 World Design Winner Handicap – 2200m – 1:31pm

British Bessy was clearly just outclassed in the Perth Cup, but seems to have bounced back with a third at the end of last preparation and a second first up. She went into that race without a trial, so would have benefited from it fitness wise. Her second up record is also good (4:1-0-1), however I’m concerned about the wide barrier and 60.5kg. Volkswagon Frank was very disappointing last weekend, with the stewards’ report saying he raced wide throughout. He’s shown he’s better than that, winning over 2400m three starts ago. With a slightly better barrier, I’m giving him one more chance. Dark Choice finally got a bit of luck last start, coming out and winning. She’s drawn the same barrier here and only carries 58kg with Chris’ claim (rises 1kg on last start). I expect a similar performance here and she can definitely win if Volkswagon Frank doesn’t bring his best and British Bessy doesn’t handle the weight and barrier. Defiantly has been racing well in the country, though she has raced in the city before. There’s just a question mark over how good this country form is, however she is know for liking these longer distances.
2 – British Bessy
7 – Volkswagon Frank
1 – Dark Choice
8 – Defiantly

Race 6 – Northam Mazda Stakes – 1100m – 2:11pm

Fabergino is unbeaten first up (6:6-0-0) and there’s no reason for that to change here. She comes off winning two listed races in Perth before winning a listed race in Melbourne. She’s drawn barrier one, which should benefit her given that she likes to lead. Flirtini has a good second up record (3:2-0-1) and was simply beaten by two better horses first up. She drops 2.5kg off that run and should only improve. Uni Time didn’t handle carrying 63.5kg first up. Her second up record is also great (3:2-1-0) and she drops down to 57.5kg. She gets every chance to bounce back to her former winning self. Electric Light is first up here after finishing second in a quiet trial. She won a listed race last preparation, showing she had a good turn of foot in the process. This is a small field so she should get a clear run in the straight. This may just be a touch too short for her though.
4 – Fabergino
2 – Flirtini
3 – Uni Time
5 – Electric Light

Race 7 – Northam Mazda Zoom Zoom Handicap – 1000m – 2:50pm

Condor Heroes proved me wrong last start, coming out and winning after not showing much in Melbourne. He does have to give State Attorney and Amelia’s On Fire 1.5kg for beating them, however he can beat them again if he brings his best. Amelia’s On Fire was considered good enough by connections to be sent to Melbourne. She was disappointing second up there, but she did draw wide. The barrier gods weren’t on her side as she got another wide barrier first up, however, she did manage to finish third behind Condor Heroes. She’s finally got an inside barrier and drops 1kg on last start. She can turn the tables here. State Attorney also comes out of the Condor Heroes race, where he finished second. His second up record is ok (4:1-1-0) and there’s nothing really to complain about with his races last preparation. Mankind is first up here without a trial, so it’s a bit hard to tell how fit he is. He was also scratched from a race a week or two ago (though I can’t remember exactly why) which also raises some concern, as does the 60.5kg. However, the form surrounding his races is really good and Pike jumps on board.
3 – Condor Heroes
5 – Amelia’s On Fire
6 – State Attorney
2 – Mankind

Race 8 – Northam Mazda CX30 Everything Just Right Handicap– 1400m – 3:25pm

Festival Miss has faced some really good horses this preparation, finishing fourth behind Flower of War and third behind Angelic Ruler. She is on the one-week back and has a wide barrier to contend with. However, this does look to be a very suitable race, especially with Chloe’s claim. Ocean’s Fifteen was disappointing last start, placing outside the top three for the first time. The stewards report did suggest a few excuses. He steps up in class which does help weight wise. However, I would have loved for him to stay at the 1000-1200m distances. Kelvin won last start over 1500m after leading all the way. He’s also got form behind some very good horses. The wide barrier is the only concern here and how much energy he’ll have to use to get to the front. Megazone got too far back last start, so I’m willing to put a line through that run, especially given that he had been racing well before that. He’s drawn a wider barrier here, so there is the concern that he may get back again if he doesn’t jump well. However, the step up in distance should definitely help.
3 – Festival Miss
12 – Ocean’s Fifteen
6 – Kelvin
7 – Megazone

Race 9 – Northam Mazda CX9 Luxury For Your World Handicap – 1600m – 4:05pm

This looks to be the most even race of the day! She’s Alright won last start over 1400m. She proved that wide barriers aren’t a problem, so that’s one less concern here. Her only disappointing run was two starts ago, where I suspect she didn’t handle leading. She also has to carry more weight but the form surrounding her races is good. Duck Feet may be another victim to a wide barrier, but as least the 59kg won’t be a problem, as he won with 60kg two starts ago. He may not be the best horse in this race, but it is an even race and Mitchell is on fire at the moment. Wee Ripper has great country form and backed that up with a city win last start. He may be slightly better suited over 1800m but should go well here. Laufey really hasn’t been racing at his best, getting too far back in his races. This may happen again here with that wide barrier, but connections will be hoping that Pike can weave his magic.
8 – She’s Alright
5 – Duck Feet
9 – Wee Ripper
7 – Laufey

Race 10 – Northam Mazda Handicap – 1200m – 4:45pm

Laverrod got another win on the board last weekend. He’s yet to finish outside of the top three (9:3-4-2) and is really a bit of a freak. This looks to be a very suitable race, with only one or two serious threats. No reason why he can’t make it back to back wins. Carocapo has been racing very well this preparation. He’s drawn slightly wide but stepping back to 1200m looks to be a good decision. He has great form surrounding his races and is a threat to my top pick. Pym’s Royale got too far back in a listed race which was over 1600m. Dropping back to 1200m should benefit and hopefully Mitchell can keep him out of trouble. Wrinkly looks to be the obvious leader in this race. He’s been racing well at listed level, though dropping down in class does mean he’ll have to carry 60kg (with Chris’ claim). Combined with the wide barrier, this does make it a difficult race for him, but he should go well.
6 – Laverrod
2 – Carocapo
5 – Pym’s Royale  
1 – Wrinkly

Best Bet

Race 10 – Laverrod

Confidence rating

I started these tips off with not a lot of confidence, but it did improve slightly as I got further into the form. Haha this quickly disappeared though. It’s definitely a feast or famine week, as I’m pretty confident regarding races 2 and 10 but not with the other races. Guess only time will tell on how well I do.