Ascot 01/05/2021

Conditions

Rail – 2m
Track – Soft 5
Forecast – Max 22 degrees, mostly sunny

Race 1 – Amelia Park Handicap – 1000m – 11:49pm

2 – Acromantula
3 – Vadette De Star
5 – Miss Livinia
4 – Critical Altitude

Comment: Acromantula looks to be well suited here and will be trying to make it back to back wins. He should easily find the front from barrier two and give them something to run down. Vadette De Star finished third to Acromantula last start and gets 2kg on him here. She should improve second up. Miss Livinia looks to have come back much better this preparation, winning a trial and a race leading into this one. Just a question over whether my top two tips are classier. Critical Altitude will be setting the pace too. She hadn’t finished far off the winners and gets her chance here.

Suggested bet: Acromantula and Vadette De Star – each way

Race 2 – Crown Perth Plate – 1200m – 12:24pm

6 – Ruthless Tycoon
1 – Fatale Femme
7 – Queen’s Gift
4 – Northern Ruler

Comment: Ruthless Tycoon has won both of his trials by a good margin. He’s having his first start here and he’ll only improve off it. Fatale Femme has been racing in much stronger company. She drops in class but isn’t penalised at the weights at all. Queen’s Gift has run second had both of her starts and there’s really no reason why she can’t go one better here. Northern Ruler is in the same position as Queen’s Gift in that he’s placed second at his first start. I just think her form is slightly stronger, which is why she’s ahead of him.

Suggested bet: Ruthless Tycoon, Fatale Femme, Queen’s Gift and Northern Ruler – each way

Race 3 – TABtouch – Better Your Bet Handicap – 1200m – 1:04pm

8 – Billy Ray
1 – Home In Five
3 – Sassy Trader
7 – Lonehand Larry

Comment: Billy Ray’s only time outside of the top three was when he got too far back in the Fairetha. He looks to be a good horse in the making. Home In Five finished off last preparation strongly which could have been put down to the soft track. His trials have been good and he gets a few gear changes, so I’m interested to see how he goes. Sassy Trader is a bit hit and miss but has placed at this track/distance before (2:0-1-1). Lonehand Larry did win last start but is up in class here.

Suggested bet: Billy Ray and Home In Five – each way

Race 4 – Schweppes Handicap – 2200m – 1:44pm

7 – Secret Pearl
1 – Come Right Back
5 – Mosseratti
6 – Lyle’s Choice

Comment: Secret Pearl did improve last start with the step up in distance. She should be spot on fitness wise and likes this track/distance (3:2-0-1). Come Right Back is just so consistent and only has to carry 58kg with Laqdar’s claim, which puts him back in the race. Mosseratti was a touch disappointing last start with nothing written in the stewards’ report. Before that he was quite consistent, but he is yet to win at this track/distance (10:0-3-3). Lyle’s Choice looked to be more a 1600m horse and races beyond 1800m here for the first time. He’s good value for a place though.

Suggested bet: Secret Pearl and Come Right Back – each way

Race 5 – Heineken 3 Handicap – 1800m – 2:24pm

8 – Off Wego
4 – Friar’s Fantasia
3 – Chief Archer
2 – Beret

Comment: Off Wego has placed in two listed races this preparation so looks to be well suited here. He’s also placed at this track/distance before (2:0-0-2). Friar’s Fantasia put in a nice run last start. She’s on the one week backup but looks to be hitting her peak this preparation. The wide barrier is a concern. Chief Archer had been racing really well at Bunbury and finished fourth last start at Ascot after getting too far back. Dropping back in distance should benefit him but from the wide barrier, he may get back again. Beret showed a good turn of foot last start. She’ll be needing this from barrier 10 but at least she only has to carry 57kg with Laqdar’s claim.

Suggested bet: Off Wego – each way

Race 6 – Devil’s Lair Handicap – 1500m – 3:00pm

3 – Watch Me Dance
2 – Friaresque
6 – Adornment
4 – Majinika

Comment: Watch Me Dance has been racing well in stronger company. She isn’t penalised in the weights and has a good barrier, so this race looks to suit. Friaresque does get back in his runs but finished strongly last start considering he was carried 60.5kg. He only has to carry 56kg due to the increase in class and Laqdar’s claim. Adornment was disappointing last start but it’s probably crying out for more distance, so I’m surprised to see her at 1500m here. She’ll be gaining fitness being second up though. Majinika won last start, beating some good horses in the process. Slight question mark on why he improved so much given his previous performances.

Suggested bet: Watch Me Dance – each way

Race 7 – Mrs Mac’s Handicap – 1000m – 3:35pm

5 – Miss Conteki
3 – Nerodio
8 – This’ll Testya
2 – River Beau

Comment: Miss Conteki is looking to make it seven wins in a row. This is by far her toughest race though, but she steps back to her pet distance of 1000m. Nerodio finished third to Miss Conteki last start and gets 2kg on her here. He’s unbeaten at the distance (2:2-0-0) and is great value at $11. This’ll Testya hasn’t been seen at the races since October 2020, but her trials suggest she’s more than ready to go. She’s unbeaten first up (2:2-0-0) and has placed at this track/distance before (1:0-1-0). River Beau caused the upset of the year when he beat Clairvoyance and he backed that up with another win. I just worry that the 61kg is going to get the better of him here. He rounds out a race that is of listed quality.

Suggested bet: Miss Conteki, Nerodio, This’ll Testya and River Beau – each way

Race 8 – Westspeed Platinum Autumn Final – 1200m – 4:15pm

3 – Image Keeper
6 – City Circle
5 – Requisition
13 – Miss Quoted

Comment: Image Keeper is up in class and looking to make it four wins in a row. He’s unbeaten at this distance (3:3-0-0), track/distance (1:1-0-0) and is hard to fault. City Circle has been racing well at her previous three starts. She’s on the one week backup but should put in another good performance. Requisition just had a hiccup last start, with the unusual poor performance being put down to racing wide and being treated for a respiratory infection. He’s yet to place at this track/distance (5:0-0-0) but can change that here. Miss Quoted finished third to Image Keeper last start and showed a great turn of foot in the process. She could be needing this again from barrier 12. This is an incredibly open racing.

Suggested bet: Image Keeper, City Circle, Requisition and Miss Quoted – each way

Race 9 – Events At Ascot Handicap – 1400m – 4:55pm

12 – Mini Winnie
8 – Wild Fusion
4 – Staralign
7 – Sowar

Comment: Mini Winnie’s last four starts have been really good. I like his form behind Billy Ain’t Silky last start and he loves this distance (3:2-1-0). Wild Fusion has had five weeks between runs but had a quiet trial leading into this race. Conditions looks to suit him and he’s won over this track/distance before (7:1-3-0). Staralign has amazing Kalgoorlie statistics. I’m just curious to see how well that holds up here. Sowar didn’t appreciate getting too far back three starts ago, but otherwise has been racing well. This is another race where you can make a case for many horses.

Suggested bet: Mini Winnie, Wild Fusion, Staralign and Sowar – each way

Best Bet

Race 6 – Watch Me Dance

Confidence rating

My confidence definitely decreases as the day goes on with races 2, 7, 8 and 9 looking particularly nasty. Races 1, 2 and 4 look to be pretty even too. There’s definitely a bit of value to be found this week I reckon.

Last Week’s Results

R3 – boxed first 4
R4 – boxed trifecta
R7 – exacta
Winners in top 4- 7/9
Top picks: -, 3rd, -, 2nd, 3rd, 3rd, 1st, -, 1st
Best bet: 3rd
Profit: -4.1 ($1ew on top tips & $2ew on bb)