Horse Racing,  Tipping

Ascot 01/02/2020

Conditions

Rail – True
Track – Good 4
Forecast – Max 29, sunny

Race 1 – TabTouch Westspeed Platinum Maiden – 1200m – 12:18pm

Trade Fair Express is on the one-week backup but is due for a win after running two thirds this preparation. He should be able to settle into a nice position from that barrier too. Diamond Trade was disappointing last start after getting too far back (and perhaps boxed in without having watched the replay). She has the ability to bounce back here. Peggie’s Joy just had no luck last start, so I’m willing to forget that run. Her previous two runs haven’t been anything outstanding (having run fifth and fourth) but the inside barrier could see things turn in her favour. Princely Package was close to running down War Anthem last start, who is a talented horse, but he also beat four other horses in this race in the process. Eleven starts with no win has me concerned, but he has faced some great horses this preparation.
2 – Trade Fair Express
5 – Diamond Trade
8 – Peggie’s Joy
1 – Princely Package

Race 2 – Amelia Park Plate – 1100m – 12:57pm

Sunnysilk is a horse with ability, having never placed outside the top four (3:0-1-1). She also has experience over many of these maiden horses, which may prove valuable here. Guarded has trialled well, with a first and a second, though he may potentially get lost from that wide barrier. Yelverton came second to Guarded in their latest trial, with this looking like good form to follow. He, however, also has a wide barrier to contend with. Almatalk has had just the one 400m trial, which she won. She should only improve after having a preparation already under her belt.
10 – Sunnysilk
6 – Guarded
9 – Yelverton
11 – Almatalk

Race 3 – Crown Perth Handicap – 1800m – 1:37pm

Harry Thomas is always up there and there’s no reason he won’t be in the finish once again. This also seems to be a slightly weaker race than his previous races. Butterlea Lad has been improving with each run and may appreciate the step up to 1800m. Stevie’s Wonder rises in class coming off a win at Geraldton. The form surrounding his races isn’t the best, but he is a good horse with good form (5:2-1-1), so deserve a crack at this. The Big Show really hasn’t been racing well this preparation, but he gets Mitchell back on board here, with this combination winning last time they were together. The weight is a concern but he’s a horse looking for this distance, if not more.
2 – Harry Thomas
4 – Butterlea Lad
8 – Stevie’s Wonder
1 – The Big Show

Race 4 – Jockey Celebration Day Handicap – 1100m – 2:17pm

If you know me then you know I hate putting my horses on top but wow, Weaponson has ability! He can sit back or lead, with this versatility potentially being the key from that wide barrier. His last 600m (despite leading) was also superior compared to some of these other horses, though these horses are far better than what he’s faced before. I really hope I’m right putting him on top. Guesteen has never placed outside the top three in her career (4:1-1-2) and is clearly a horse going places. She has better form surrounding her races than Weaponson, plus she gets a better barrier and weight. This all makes her a serious threat. Holy Ghost won last start after coming from the back, so brings that confidence here. He’s also has been improving with each run, there’s no doubt he’ll be fit coming into this race. Chatter Session won last start over this distance at Pinjarra. The biggest tick for me is that Pike jumps of Snippy Miss in favour of her.
2 – Weaponson
8 – Guesteen
1 – Holy Ghost
6 – Chatter Session

Race 5 – Scenic Blast Stakes – 1200m – 2:54pm

Cup Night beat The Velvet King last preparation in a 78+, which is pretty good form. He then backed that up with a second in the listed Northam Cup. He’s trialled extremely well leading into this race, has a good first up record (4:1-1-1) and gets a low weight and barrier. Valour Road won a listed race last start and clearly has better form over the majority of these horses. However, he has to carry the 60kg and may just be outrun by my top pick. Belter has raced two times this preparation for two seconds, so is definitely deserving of a win here. He gets a 1.5kg on Valour Road and may turn the tables if Valour Road doesn’t handle the weight. Don’t Fuss is a very good horse and would have been on top had he not been facing these great horses. He also gets 2kg on Valour Road for running third to him last start and is definitely one to include in the minors.
5 – Cup Night
1 – Valour Road
2 – Belter
6 – Don’t Fuss

Race 6 – Jason Oliver Memorial Handicap – 1400m – 3:30pm

Coming Around has won two in a row over this distance and finds another very suitable race here. Connections would have to be confident going into this race, especially given the turn of foot he showed last start. My Greek Boy had a good run last start after some good trials. He should be able to settle into a similar position here and gets a bit of weight relief with Brodie’s claim. Skinnen Tins has had two runs this preparation for two fourths, but she did come into this preparation without a trial, so she probably needed those runs. Speeding Comet won two starts ago where he sat midfield and then ran on. He’s definitely a bit hit and miss but should run a good race if he can settle no worse than midfield.
3 – Coming Around
1 – My Greek Boy
8 – Skinnen Tins
2 – Speeding Comet

Race 7 – Adrian Chan Memorial Handicap – 1600m – 4:10pm

Inspirational Girl simply got too far back last start and while she has a wide barrier again here, I’ll be looking for Pike to have learnt his lesson from that run. Patristic will be giving them all something to run down, after leading and winning his past three races. He could have met one better here in Inspirational Girl, but he’s one to watch if they’re winning from the front. Dickoletto looks to prefer 1400m, so stepping up was an interesting choice. He does have good form behind Not To Be Mist and Coming Around and will be taking the lead with Patristic. Paddy’s Shadow is a bit of an outsider after not running so well last start (got too far back) and her second up record isn’t the best (4:1-0-0), but I think she can run a cheeky race here, given last preparations performances. Definitely look out for her over more distance though.
7 – Inspirational Girl
1 – Patristic
2 – Dickoletto
3 – Paddy’s Shadow

Race 8 – Hana Dickson Memorial Handicap – 3yo Classic – 1200m – 4:45pm

Lipstick Flickers was in career best form last preparation and she looks to be on the path to continue that this preparation after winning a trial. Maschino Miss was disappointing last start after burning out from leading. Her previous form suggests she’s better than that, so if she can get behind a good horse near the front from barrier four then she should be improving. Lorentinio was on fire last preparation, winning three out of four races in a row. He comes into this race without a trial after two months off, but I expect he’ll go well. He’s great value if that’s what you’re looking for. StateAttorney did win two starts ago but then didn’t back it up last start. His statistics are ok in terms of distance, track and third up, but I’m happy to wait. One thing in his favour is that he should be fit third up.
12 – Lipstick Flickers
5 – Maschino Miss
3 – Lorentinio
8 – State Attorney

Race 9 – Nicole Botica Memorial Handicap – 1000m – 5:25pm

Catherine Wheel was doing amazingly till her last, where I’m assuming there were excuses as she then went from a spell plus it was on a heavy track. She’s had a nice quiet trial leading into this race and should go well. Lookout has won two trials over 1000m coming into this race, which gives me confidence. He has a wide barrier but has been known to overcome this previously. Rosebush has been running well this preparation. She gets Pike on board and with that every chance of winning. Shinju trial wasn’t the best, but he does have a good distance record (4:1-1-1) and his first up record is ok (3:0-0-2).
8 – Catherine Wheel
9 – Lookout
7 – Rosebush
4 – Shinju


Best Bet

Race 3 – Harry Thomas

Confidence rating

This is one of my better weeks I’d say, but normally when I’m confident I don’t do as well. I’m going for my fourth week in a row of recording a profit, so the pressure is on too! Coming Around was my best bet but he’s a bit too short for my liking.

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