Ascot 01/01/2022

Conditions

Rail – 6m
Track – Good 4
Forecast – Max 29 degrees, sunny

Race 1 – TABtouch – Westspeed Platinum Handicap – 1100m – 11:16am

4 – Requisition
3 – Lacevinsky
2 – Wine Night
1 – Express Time

Comment: Requisition hasn’t finished that far off the winner at his past two starts while recording a win three starts ago. Conditions look to suit, and he should run another good race. Lacevinsky has slightly weaker form surrounding his races, but he did prove that he can carry 60kg last start when just beaten by a better horse. He’s in career best form here and I can’t see a reason for him not to be in the finish. Wine Night was incredibly hit and miss last preparation, but did record the one win with Mitchell riding, beating Holy Enchantment in the process which looks like good form to follow. She hasn’t been seen at the races since March 2021, but she does go well first up (3:2-0-0). Express Time looked to have come to the end of her preparation last start. She returns without having a trial, but she goes well fresh (4:1-1-1) and she only has to carry 59kg. The market is correct in suggesting this is an open race.

Suggested bet: Requisition, Lacevinsky, Wine Night and Express Time – each way

Race 2 – Magic Millions Plate – 1100m – 12:05pm

6 – Costume Party
3 – Gold Keeper
8 – Sheeza Belter
10 – Sofia’s Symphony

Comment: Costume Party has the most experience in this race, if that counts for anything, and is yet to finish outside of the top 3. If anything is going to get in her way, it will be the wide barrier. Gold Keeper won his last trial in a nice fashion and the first two horses put a good gap on the rest of the field. He’s one to watch who will only improve off this run. Stray Shot has won and placed second in his two trials. He didn’t win or place by the biggest of margins, but I think he’s overpriced at $31. Sheeza Belter has had just the one trial which she won. It’s hard to gauge her ability of the one trial, so look to see how she goes here. Sofia’s Symphony is in a similar boat, having one just the one winning trial. Her margin wasn’t as impressive, but she can still run a good race here.

Suggested bet: Costume Party, Gold Keeper, Sheeza Belter and Sofia’s Symphony – each way

Race 3 – Seppelt “The Drives” Plate – 1000m – 12:45pm

1 – He’s A Sizzler
2 – Beads
9 – Thomas Magnum
5 – Cold Shizzle

Comment: He’s A Sizzler looks to be in for another preparation after winning first up. His second up record isn’t as good (2:0-1-0), but he didn’t finish outside of the top 2 last preparation. Look for that to continue here. Beads peaked last start, recording a nice win. He rises 2.5kg off that run, but conditions look to suit (3:1-1-0) and the form surrounding his races is good. I can see why he’s the favourite. Thomas Magnum was considered good enough by connections to run in a listed race, but he appreciated the drop down in class last start. He gets 1.5kg on He’s A Sizzler and he has the ability to turn the table at good odds. Cold Shizzle has been making his way through the grades nicely. He drops down in distance which looks to help, though Chris jumps off in favour of He’s A Sizzler. He’s another good value bet though.

Suggested bet: He’s A Sizzler, Beads, Thomas Magnum and Cold Shizzle – each way

Race 4 – Ascend Sales Trophies Handicap – 1000m – 1:25pm

4 – Acromantula
8 – Go Forward
3 – Brooklyn Pier
7 – Weaponson

Comment: Acromantula narrowly went down to The Front Bar first up, which looks like good form to follow. He has a great track/distance record (5:3-1-0) and he’s won second up before (2:1-0-0). He should go well here. Go Forward is a consistent horse that won by a good margin last start. He’s up in class, so down in the weights. He’s on fire this preparation though and conditions look to suit. Brooklyn Pier has had excuses in the stewards’ report but hasn’t finished that far off the winner at his past two starts. Hopefully, he can bounce back to his previous form here. Weaponson has been disappointing this preparation, however, he’s now with Lindsay Smith. He does have a good track/distance record (3:1-0-1), so maybe the sea change will do him some good.

Suggested bet: Acromantula and Go Forward – each way

Race 5 – Amelia Park Handicap – 1400m – 2:05pm

11 – Memorable Miss
5 – Crescent City
8 – Tri For Us
3 – Worth A Risk

Comment: Memorable Miss stepped up dramatically in class last start but managed to match it to those horses. She’s yet to officially race at 1400m but does handle 1300m and 1600m. The wide barrier is a concern but keen to tip a cerise and white horse at $10. Crescent City placed at listed level last preparation. He’s probably looking for further, but he has placed at this track/distance (1:0-0-1). The barrier and weight may cause him some problems, but he’s another great value bet. Tri For Us has been disappointing this preparation, with not much written in the stewards’ report. She’s placed at listed level and the track/distance will suit (3:1-1-0). Look for her to potentially bounce back here. Worth A Risk is looking to make it 4 wins in a row. Those wins have been at Albany, so I question the form surrounding his races. At least he only has to carry 57kg with Holly’s claim. Avoid this race like the plague!

Suggested bet: Memorable Miss, Crescent City, Tri For Us and Worth A Risk – each way

Race 6 – Furphy – Summer Scorcher – 1000m – 2:45pm

10 – The Front Bar
6 – Miss Conteki
3 – Gemma’s Son
4 – Long Beach

Comment: The Front Bar is having her first start for new connections. She’s unbeaten at this track/distance (3:3-0-0) and has overcome a wide barrier before. She’s up in class but it’s not hard to see why she’s the favourite. Miss Conteki comes into this race without a trial and only had the one start last preparation, so I question why this is the case. Her first up record (4:3-1-0) and track/distance record (6:5-1-0) are great, so she can easily win this. Gemma’s Son looks to have needed the run first up and raced wide throughout. Besides the wide barrier, everything looks to suit him here. He can surprise. Long Beach didn’t quite handle the step up to group 1 level in the Winterbottom. His third in the group 3 Colonel Reeves was good though, where he also drew wide, so he could bounce back here.

Suggested bet: The Front Bar and Miss Conteki – each way

Race 7 – Mumm Champagne Handicap – 1600m – 3:25pm

4 – Ginger Flyer
8 – Em Tee Aye
12 – Bragwell
7 – Bruce Almighty

Comment: Ginger Flyer has just found a few better at her past three runs. She’s very consistent though, is proven at this track/distance (4:1-1-1) and only has to carry 57kg with Holly’s claim. Hopefully, she can return to winning ways here. Em Tee Aye is always in the finish but can’t quite get the chocolates. I question whether he’s more of a 1400m horse, but he has placed at this track/distance (4:0-1-1). He’s down in class, so could finally get a win on the board again. Bragwell is also consistent and showed a really good turn of foot two starts ago. He’ll need that again from barrier 10, but at least he’s placed at this track/distance (4:0-1-2). Don’t rule him out. Bruce Almighty really improved last start. The form behind God Has Chosen is good, though he’ll have to use energy early on to get a forward position from barrier 11.

Suggested bet: Ginger Flyer, Em Tee Aye and Bragwell – each way

Race 8 – Mrs Mac’s – La Trice Classic – 1800m – 4:05pm

4 – Beret
1 – Dance Music
11 – Jadavi
3 – Solaia

Comment: Beret won nicely in a listed race last start. She’s up in distance here but has placed at this track/distance before (3:0-2-0). She does have to give some other horses weight, but there’s no reason why she can’t make it 4 wins in a row. Dance Music finished 2.7 lengths behind Beret last start. She didn’t seem to handle leading all of the way, but she does get 1.5kg on her here. She has some of the strongest form in this race and can win without surprising. Jadavi is significantly up in class here, but I just really love the turn of foot she showed last start. Thanks to two starts ago, she’s also unbeaten at this track/distance (1:1-0-0). Class may get the better of her, but I think she’s way over at $51/1. Solaia has been a bit disappointing this preparation, though she’s had a few excuses in the stewards’ reports. Stepping up in distance looks to suit, so look for her to bounce back here.

Suggested bet: Beret, Dance Music, Jadavi, Solaia – each way

Race 9 – Tabtouch – Perth Cup – 2400m – 4:45pm

12 – Midnight Blue
14 – Pure Devotion
15 – Stafford’s Lad
8 – Black Shadow

Comment: Midnight Blue didn’t have things go entirely right for him last start. He gets weight on the horses that beat him home plus the bar plates come off. He finished third in this race last year and he should be hitting his peak right now. Pure Devotion maybe could have won last start if she hasn’t slipped at the 25m mark. Her form over 2200m is great and I can’t see the extra 200m being a problem. It’s hard to fault her. Stafford’s Lad is in no doubt career best form after beating home Pure Devotion and Midnight Blue last start. His turn of foot is his biggest asset, though he shouldn’t get too far back from barrier 1. His track/distance record is my only concern (2:0-0-0). Black Shadow will also appreciate the weight swing on these other horses. He was his own worst enemy last start, so hopefully, he settles better here. He’s placed at this track/distance (1:0-1-0), but may just find one better again.

Suggested bet: Midnight Blue, Pure Devotion and Stafford’s Lad – each way

Race 10 – Crown Perth Handicap – 1200m – 5:20pm

4 – Son Son
11 – Trevern
2 – Billy Ain’t Silly
5 – Chantorque

Comment: Son Son looks to be in for a good preparation after recording a second and a win. Conditions look to suit him here, especially as he’s unbeaten at this track/distance (2:2-0-0). Absolutely no reason why he should run a bad race. Trevern is dramatically up in class here but is looking to make it 5 wins out of 6 races. He can easily get to the front from barrier 4 and he’s placed at this track/distance (2:0-2-0). He’s good each way value. Billy Ain’t Silly has improved which each trial, which is good to see. His first up record isn’t as good as his second up (so watch out for him next start), but he is proven at Ascot (3:2-1-0) and distance (3:2-0-1) individually. I just hope he and Trevern don’t burn each other out for the lead. Chantorque looks to be returning to her former self based off her last two runs. She did run on really nice last start and this open race will give her every chance to go one better.

Suggested bet: Son Son, Trevern, Billy Ain’t Silly and Chantorque – each way

Best Bet

Race 6 – The Front Bar

Quaddie

R7: 4, 8, 12
R8: 1, 3, 4, 8, 9, 11
R9: 12, 14, 15
R10: 2, 3, 4, 5, 7, 11

Confidence rating

My confidence is on the weaker side to start the year. Races 2 and 10 are definitely a nightmare. Races 1, 3, 7, 8 and 9 are pretty open too, plus I’ve gone with value in Race 5 so that always makes me nervous.  I’m hoping to start the year off with a profit though!

Last Year’s Results

Winners: 126 (28.19%)
Places: 269 (60.18%)
Races tipped: 447
Outlay: $990
Return: $861.62
Profit: -$128.38